ipsos mori issues index: 40th anniversary edition

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40th anniversary edition

September 1974 - September 2014

2

Base: 973 British adults 18+, 29th August – 10th September 2014 Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

39

30

25

23

21

16

15

14

13

11

Top mentions %

Economy

NHS

Housing

Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism

Race relations/Immigration

Education/schools

Poverty/inequality

Unemployment

Change since Aug:

+1

-2

+9

0

-5

+2

+2

0

0

0

% Position

Crime/Law and Order/ASB

Inflation/prices

+1

-2

-2

+1

+2

-1

+1

+1

3

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Unemployment

NHS

Crime/

Law & Order

Economy

Race / immigration

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014



Global Recession and

Russian Financial

crisis

Highest score since 1992.

Most important issue for the

first time

Sub-prime

mortgage crisis in

the US

Northern Rock

nationalised

End of

recession

announced

Bank

bailout

Cameron becomes

PM

Lowest score since

June 2008 (30%)

5



0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Race riots in

Burnley, Oldham,

and Bradford

Sangatte detention

centre costantly in the

news throughout 2002

9/11

Foreign

prisoners

furore

Cameron becomes

PM

Border controls relaxed for

Romanians and Bulgarians

Top issue facing

the UK for the

first time since

April 2008 (39%)

6



0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Unemployment falls below 1 million for first

time in 25 years

Minimum wage

introduced

Unemployment in Britain rises to

5.5%

Lowest ever score

(5%)

Youth unemployment reaches 1 million

Cameron becomes

PM

7



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

May day riots

Blair activates civil contingencies

machinery to deal with spiralling street

crime

Tory election pledge of

40,000 more police

Riots in England

Prison

overcrowding

reaches record

levels

9/11

Cameron becomes

PM

8



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Report says waiting lists have

doubled under Labour

Blair – “We have underfunded the NHS for years and we are paying the price for

it” – BBC NHS day

Hewitt heckled at UNISON

conference – fears over NHS

job cuts

Lowest score

since

December 1985 (12%)

Cameron becomes

PM

9



0

10

20

30

40

50

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

London

Bombs

Introduction of

means-tested tuition

fees. Education most

important issue.

First City Academies

introduced

Lowest score

since Dec 1985

(9%)

Labour’s second term - pledge to

improve failing secondary schools

Education and

Inspections Bill limits

the power of LAs to

open new schools

April 2011 – Pupil Premium

introduced

Cameron becomes

PM

10



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

9/11

London

Bombs

Invasion of Iraq –

protests across Europe

General Election - extra £400

million allocated for defence

budget

Failed terror

attacks in

London and

Glasgow

UK

withdraws

from Iraq

War in

Kosovo

Parliamentary

vote on action in

Syria

Cameron becomes

PM

NATO bombing

in Libyan Civil

War Rise of ISIL

11



0

5

10

15

20

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Sept 1999: Alastair

Darling – “one

child in three”

living in poverty

July 2014 –

highest score

recorded (18%)

January 2005 –

Make Poverty

History campaign

launched on New

Year’s Day

Cameron becomes

PM

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014



Inflation rate hits 16 year

peak

Inflation rises to 3.4%

Cameron becomes

PM

13



0

5

10

15

20

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

A8 Countries join

the EU

House prices rising

at fastest rate in 10

years

2005 Election – Blair promises

to make families £800 better off

and help first time buyers

Highest score

since May 2008

(15%)

Cameron becomes

PM

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014



Lords vote to increase

compensation for those whose

company pension schemes have

collapsed

Blair and Harriet Harman propose

‘affluence testing’ to exclude the

well-off from state benefits

Brown unveils

pension credits

Pensions commission report –

“more than 12 million working

people are not saving enough

for their retirement”

Lowest ever

score (3%)

Cameron becomes

PM

15



0

5

10

15

20

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

Cameron’s “Vote

Blue, go Green”

campaign at 2006

local elections

Buncefield Oil Depot fire – toxic

cloud reaches northern Spain

Wettest Autumn since records began –

widespread flooding across the UK

EC proposes carbon

emission cuts of 20%

by 2020

Stern

Review on

climate

change

Cameron becomes

PM

Flooding

in England

16

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index


0

10

20

30

40

May1997

May1998

May1999

May2000

May2001

May2002

May2003

May2004

May2005

May2006

May2007

May2008

May2009

May2010

May2011

May2012

May2013

May2014

G8 commitment to

globalisation in

Cologne

9/11

Treaty of Accession:

10 new EU Member

States

UK starts 6 month

EU Presidency,

France and Holland

reject ratification of

constitution

Lowest score

recorded (1%)

Amsterdam Treaty signed –

increases EU remit

Cameron becomes

PM

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home

Post Euro elections:

Highest score since

June 2005 (12%)

17

15% 25%

33%

What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today? – Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism

Base: 973 British adults 18+, 29th August – 10th September 2014 Ipsos MORI Issues Index

Concern by region

11%

Greater

London

21%

25%

21%

24%

Rural dwellers most concerned

Concern by party

23%

Labour

48%

Conservative

Urban Suburban Rural

Concern differs by social grade

17%

C2DE

28%

ABC1

18

What would you say is the biggest issue facing Britain today?

Base: 973 British adults 18+, 29th August – 10th September 2014 Ipsos MORI Issues Index

25

11

10

8

6

5

3

3

3

3

39

23

30

21

25

13

16

15

14

11

Economy

NHS

Housing

Defence/foreign affairs/terrorism

Race relations/Immigration

Education/schools

Poverty/inequality

Unemployment

Crime/Law and Order/ASB

Inflation/prices

Top mentions % Most important issue

Most/other important issues

19

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

% +

Q. What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

Q. Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the

same or get worse over the next 12 months? (% “better” - % “worse” = EOI)

Base: c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index / Political Monitor

22

Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Unemployment

Economy The NHS Defence/

terrorism

Crime

Inflation/prices

23

36%

31%

22% 21%

Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index, 1974-2014.

17%

N.B. Only issues asked over the whole 40 year period included

The size of each circle is proportionate to the average

percentage score for each issue over the 40 year period

24

Year

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

UK unemployment rate, %

Unemployment an issue, %

% u

nem

plo

ye

d

% a

gre

e a

n is

su

e

Source: ONS, Ipsos MORI Issues Index, 1974-2014.

25

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

(Census figures)

% a

gre

e ra

ce

rela

tion

s/im

mig

ratio

n a

n is

su

e

Source: UK Census 1981-2011, Ipsos MORI Issues Index, 1974-2014.

26

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Economy as an issue, %

Public debt as % of GDP

Pu

blic

deb

t as %

GD

P

% s

ayin

g t

he e

co

no

my a

n i

ss

ue


N.B. trend since 1987

27

Year

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Economy as an issue, %

GDP quarter on quarter growth

Qu

arte

rly G

DP

gro

wth

, %

% s

ayin

g t

he e

co

no

my a

n i

ss

ue


N.B. trend since 1987

28

Year

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% s

ayin

g c

rim

e a

n i

ssu

e

Incid

en

ce o

f crim

e (C

SE

W)

Crime as an issue, %

Incidence of crime (CSEW)

Source: Crime Survey of England and Wales (CSEW) 1981-2014; Ipsos MORI Issues Index, 1974-

2014.

29

82

23

22

19

12

10

9

8

7

6

Top mentions %

Housing

Trade Unions

Unemployment

Common Market

Prices/Inflation

Pensions

Race relations/immigration

Education

Crime/Law and order

Northern Ireland

One month before the second 1974

General Election, after the 1973 oil

crisis and miners’ strikes of 1972

and 1974, the British public were

overwhelmingly concerned about

prices and inflation

Concern over Europe was also high;

The Labour Manifesto for October 1974

promised a renegotiation of the UK’s

membership to the European Economic

Community (EEC), followed by an in-out

referendum

CON

39%

LAB

44%

LIB

15% Source: Gallup/Telegraph


September 1974 also saw the launch of the

BBC’s Ceefax service

30

70

39

22

21

10

10

7

7

5

5

Trade Unions

Nuclear Weapons

Defence/Foreign affairs

Inflation/prices

Unemployment

NHS

European Communities

Crime

Education

Pensions

Top mentions %

With unemployment at 11.8% - near

to the highest level ever recorded in

the UK - unemployment was seen as

the key issue facing the country by a

large proportion

Six months into the 1984 Coal Miners’

strike, with fresh clashes between police

and strikers at the Maltby Colliery picket,

trade unions were still seen as one of the

biggest issues facing the country

CON

42%

LAB

36%

LIB/SDP

20% Source: MORI/Evening Standard


Prince Harry was

born on 14th

September, 1984

31

59

34

33

21

20

9

8

7

6

5

NHS

Crime

Housing

Education

Unemployment

Pensions

Morality/individual lifestyle

Economy

European Union

Inflation/prices

Top mentions %

Although unemployment was falling

across the country, the overall

jobless rate still stood at 9.4%,

meaning that unemployment

remained the greatest issue for many

At the high point of a UK-wide crime wave,

concern with crime reached its highest level

since 1980

CON

25%

LAB

54%

LIB

17% Source: MORI/Times


In September 1994 Wet

Wet Wet’s record 15-

week number one

single, Love is all

Around reached the

end of its chart-topping

run

32

36

34

29

27

26

15

10

8

8

8

NHS

Education

Economy

Crime

Defence/foreign affairs

/terrorism

Pensions

Taxation

Race relations/immigration

European Union

Unemployment

Top mentions %

Over a year and a half after the

invasion of Iraq, sectarian unrest

and the recent capture of Saddam

Hussein heightened public concern

about defence, terrorism and foreign

affairs

The first Foundation Trust NHS hospitals

opened earlier this year; concern about the

NHS, whilst still high, fell from a record

peak of 72% in February 2002

CON

33%

LAB

32%

LIB

25% Source: MORI


On 15th

September 2004,

pro-hunting

campaigners

broke into the

House of

Commons

ipsos mori issues index: 40th anniversary edition

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