ip ethernet in mobile backhaul infrastructure
TRANSCRIPT
IP Ethernet in Mobile Backhaul
Infrastructure
San Jose, CA
Thursday, 24 June, Track II, Infrastructure & Technology Trends
Presented by
Michael HowardCo-founder and Principal Analyst, Carrier and Data Center Networking
Infonetics Research
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 2
Today’s Speaker
Michael Howard
Principal Analyst and Co-founder
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 3
The Ethernet market is moving
• Providers are investing in Ethernet equipment
– 2009: $22 billion
– 2014: $32 billion
– Cumulative US$149 billion between 2010 and 2014
– Routers, CE Switches, Ethernet over SDH/SONET and
WDM, Ethernet microwave, EPON, VDSL, EADs
• $Billions of Ethernet services revenue worldwide
– 2009: $21 billion
– 2014: $39 billion
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 4
What is mobile cell site backhaul?
Network between the BTS/NodeBs at a cell site to the BSC/RNC site,
whether over air, copper, or fiber
1st Mile (LRAN) 2nd Mile (HRAN)
NodeB
eNodeB
BTS
RNC/BSC
RNC/BSC
RNC/BSC
HUB
RNC/BSC siteCell site
1st Mile (LRAN) 2nd Mile (HRAN)
NodeB
eNodeB
BTS
RNC/BSC
RNC/BSC
RNC/BSC
HUB
RNC/BSC siteCell site
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 5
3 stages of IP/Ethernet backhaul to LTE
IP/Ethernet backhaul solves ARPU-traffic disconnect today and backhaul
problem for HSPA today…and LTE tomorrow
2G BTS
3G NodeB
E1/T1
RNC
BSCPDH
Backhaul
2G BTS
3G NodeB
E1/T1
RNC
BSC
Hybrid/Dual
Backhaul
2G BTS
3G NodeB
RNC
BSC
All
IP/Ethernet
Ethernet
Ethernet
InternetGateway
LTE eNodeB
2G BTS
3G NodeB
E1/T1E1/T1
RNC
BSCPDH
Backhaul
PDH
Backhaul
2G BTS
3G NodeB
E1/T1E1/T1
RNC
BSC
Hybrid/Dual
Backhaul
Hybrid/Dual
Backhaul
2G BTS
3G NodeB
RNC
BSC
All
IP/Ethernet
All
IP/Ethernet
Ethernet
Ethernet
InternetGateway
LTE eNodeB
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 6
Cell site backhaul connections increase quickly
• 2010-2014 new: ~1.4 billion mobile subs, ~1.2 billion mobile broadband subs
– More base stations, cell site connections (and equipment for each), higher backhaul capacities
• Connections and bandwidth per connection drive equipment spendingSource: Infonetics Research Mobile Backhaul Equipment and Services, April 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Co
nn
ec
tio
ns
(K
)
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14
Worldwide Mobile Backhaul Connections : Installed vs New
Installed Connections
New Connections
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 7
…And data dramatically increases traffic load
Operators increasing capacities via EDGE, EV-DO, HSPA, WiMAX, LTE
…..But flat to slow ARPU changes
0
10
20
30
40TB
Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
JRA 09.09.2009
0
10
20
30
40TB
Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09
JRA 09.09.2009
Live network KPI data
Operators: 9 Europe, 4 APAC, 6 Americas
Average Y-Y growth over 500%
Total HSDPA Traffic per Day
Source: Nokia Siemens Networks
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 8
Costs drive operators to IP/Ethernet backhaul
• Costs based on backhaul capacities required by technology, and MRCs for services
• Ethernet offers huge drop in cost-per-bit of bandwidth that almost matches the 2x to 10x traffic increases HSPA delivers
• IP/Ethernet naturally fits WiMAX and LTE as well
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14
PDM and ATM over PDH Ethernet fiber and copper
…or move to
Ethernet
Stay on TDM
Source: Infonetics Research Mobile Backhaul Equipment and Services, April 2010
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 9
New cell site connections go Ethernet
New connections move quickly to mostly IP/Ethernet, whether
fiber, copper or air
Worldwide Mobile Backhaul New Connections by Technology
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14
Nu
mb
er
of
New
Co
nn
ecti
on
s (
Th
ou
san
ds)
PDH ATM over PDH
Ethernet copper Ethernet fiber
SONET/SDH and WDM Microwave-Ethernet and dual TDM/Ethernet
Microwave-TDM Other
Source: Infonetics Research Mobile Backhaul Equipment and Services, April 2010
Ethernet
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 10
• Ethernet solidly in operator MBH strategies
– Majority plan dual/hybrid approach
– Predict 50 operators will be committed to single IP/Ethernet
backhaul (were 25 at end 2009)
– LTE planning drives more Ethernet
• Mobile broadband growth continues to drive traffic and costs
• Cellsites not fiberized fast enough—opportunity for
microwave and copper
• New Ethernet chipsets include MBH functions: 1588v2,
SynchE, Eth OAM
Mobile backhaul 2010 issues
Copyright © 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc. 11
Summary
• Backhaul costs are the principal driver, due to traffic growth
• Operators are making the investment to move to the
IP/Ethernet backhaul networks
• IP/Ethernet backhaul
– Solves ARPU-traffic disconnect today
– Solves backhaul problem for HSPA today
– …and LTE tomorrow
Thank You
Michael Howard
Co-founder and Principal Analyst, Carrier and Data Center Networks
Infonetics Research
+1 408.583.3351
www.infonetics.com