invited speech at ge2013, udine 2013
TRANSCRIPT
Roberto SiagriPresident & CEOEUROTECH Spa
Udine 20 Giugno, 2013
Accelerating change, Moore’s law and human ingenuity
45th Annual Meeting
The Eurotech Engine
EurotechImagine.
Build.Succeed.
NanoPCPervasive
Computersfor distributed
intelligence and to enable
the IoT
HPCHigh
Performance Computer for Data center,
Science, Engineering
2
3
“The most profoundtechnologies are those that
disappear.They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until theyare indistinguishable from it “
The Computer for the 21st Century
"The Computer for the 21st Century", Scientific American,
Vol. 265 No.9, pp. 66-75, 1991
Mark Weiser
4
’92: From where we started
Reducing Overall ComplexityC
ost
Time
HW
SW
5
Wirth’s law: Software gets slower faster than hardware gets faster
Moore's law : the number of transistors doubles approx. every 18 months
Value follow simplicity
The Essence of Eurotech's strategy
Finding the right PLATFORM that reduce Customer’s TCO and TTM
It's a matter of SW vs. HW
Cos
t
Time
HW COST
SW COST
-$
6
For Embedded the PC
is the platformchoosen by
Eurotech
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The power of industrystandards
20 years of progress
’92: A Personal Computeron the palm
of a hand
’12: A Personal Computeron half the palm
of a hand
16Mhz-1MB
1,6Ghz – 2GB RAM 8
X 10.000
9
Less
More
Malthus was wrong. He forgot a factor: our continual ability to do more and more with less and less because of
Technological Innovation
R. Buckminster Fuller1895 - 1983
“The principle of doing ever more with ever less
Space, Time, Matter and Energy
per each given level of functional performance”
Innovation moves from material to abstract
11
MIPS vs. Time
SpaceTimeEnergyMatter
Information
Computation
STEM compression :the Engine of Innovation
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Mainframes
MiniComputers
ParallelComputers
Computers Food chain : part 1Once upon a time ……….
VectorComputers
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Computer Food Chain : part 2the new Computer Ecosystem
PervasiveComputer
Computer Network/Cluster
MiniComputerMainframe
VectorComputers
ParallelComputers
Dave Patterson, UC/Berkeley
RIP RIP RIP RIP
Componentization
“The rate of evolution ofany system is dependentupon the organization ofits subsystems”
Theory of Hierarchy and ComponentizationHerbert A. Simon 1916-2001
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Amdahl’s Law
APE project
1999: 0,1 TeraFlops per rack
QCD needs Supercomputers
APEmille
2005: 1 TeraFlops per rackAPEnext
SISSAMCA 2013
GPUs vs CPUs
comparing GPUs with CPUs over the last
decade in terms FLOPs, we see that
GPUs appear to be far ahead of the CPUs
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Aurora Tigon: 140 TeraFlops per Rack
CPUs and GPUs power Aurora Tigon HPC cluster to 3.2 GFLOPS/W
Sets World Record for Energy Efficiency
At the Top of the GREEN500
11000 CO2 tons saved1500 cars that do not circulate for 1 year
11500 saved trees15 Km2 of rain forest left untouched
SISSAMCA 2013 20
Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration
IDEAS are the new “ultimate” raw material
Moore's Law Miniaturization ‘65 Transistors increase 2 times over 18 months
Metcalfe's Law Interconnection ‘93 Value of a network increases with the square of the
number of connections
Gilder's Law Quantization ’00 Bandwidth increases 1,5 times over 12 months
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• Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the Internet at all times
• Massive computation available on demand through the CLOUD
• Tiny Computers embedded in
– the environment,– our clothing,– our body
Augmented real reality
Computers are becoming pervasive and ubiquitous
THE PLANETARY COMPUTATIONAL EXOSKELETON
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Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)
Geosphere/Geogenesis(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis(Biologic-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
The noosphere is a "planetary thinking network" an interlinked system of consciousness and information, a global net of self-awareness, instantaneous feedback
and planetary communication
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin(1881-1955)
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Internet of Things: Embedded PC and IT integration
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What IoT needsAn universal infrastructure where data can exist anywhere and be available to any device with
some form of consistency guarantee
Wearable
NotebookAppliance
SensorSensor
Server
ClusterNetwork
Camera
IoT : i.e. from Embedded to Pervasive computing
Cos
t
Time
HW COST
SW COST
-$For the IoT
the Cloud is the platform
choosen by Eurotech
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Finding the right PLATFORM that reduce Customer’s TCO and TTM
Again, it's a matter of scalable SW vs. scalable HW
“A Period of Combinatorial Innovation”In the 1800s, it was interchangeable parts.
In the 1920s, it was electronics.
In the 1970s, it was integrated circuits.
In the 1990s, it was the VLSI functions.
In the 2010s, it was the SW Components.
Hal Varian Google Chief Economist
The Internet of ThingsModern M2M Systems
Technology advances and standardization lead to a commoditization of distributed systems
Where today’s solutions differ:
• Scaling up to larger applications & implementations• Scaling down to smaller applications & implementation• Interconnecting solutions on a platform level• Much lower upfront investment• Much faster implementation / deployment• Much better TCO
APIs, Dashboards, Console, etc.
The Internet of ThingsEurotech Offer
Consumers of Data
M2MInfrastructureSolutionTechnologyBuilding Block
M2MIntegration Platform
Multi-Service
Gateways
Producers of Data
Standard Interfaces
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Calm Technology
Mark Weiser
Ubiquitous computing just might help to free our minds from unnecessary work, and..
.. Connect us to the fundamental challenge that humans have always had:
to understand the patterns in the universe
and ourselves within them.
SISSAMCA 2013
Addressing the increase in Software Complexity
Per
form
ance
/Pro
duct
ivity
Complexity and Size
AssemblyLimited reuse of written code
PC –ProgrammingEasy A lot of available programsBackward compatible
Cloud based appsMultitenantMesh-upScalable
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SISSAMCA 2013
In general the growth is exponential
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Aurora & Aurora TigonEurotech PETAscale HPC
Eurotech is part ofDEEP
the EU EXAscaleResearch Project
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Growth
Time
today today + 3 years
One order of magnitudechange
“.. is really about human activity, it’s about vision, it’s about what you’re allowed to believe… People are limited by their beliefs, they limit themselves by what
they allow themselves to believe is possible."Carver Mead
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
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1949: …a panel of expert
…. predicted that some day,
a computer as powerful as ENIAC would contain: only 1,500 vacuum tubes; weigh 3,000 pounds; and require 10 kilowatts of power to operate. Such a machine would be about the size and weight of an automobile with power consumption to match.
Popular Mechanics
March 1949
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…we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century,it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate)
Law of accelerating returns
Ray KurzweilThe singularity is near
Sustainable Growth vs. Saturation
S curves get old
Time
Performance
Evolution phase
Take-off
Research,Invention phase
Return reduction New technology
Existingtechnology
New Evolution phase
36Each new TECHNOLOGICAL substrate is more efficient than the previous one
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clock speed blocked
CPU clock speed for a single CPU hovering
around 3.4Ghz.
…but the computational power per die is growing
Although single CPUs have been limited, due to the rise of multi-core
machines, the computational power per
die has still been increasing
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SISSAMCA 2013
CPU Trends
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SISSAMCA 2013
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Cal
cula
tions
per
seco
nd
The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999), by Ray Kurzweil
One insect brain
One mouse brain
1040
1035
1030
1025
1020
1015
1010
105
10
10-5
$1,000 of computing buys…
One human brain
All human brains
The Exponential Growth of Computing, 1900-2100
SISSAMCA 201341
The fundamental limits of computatio
the Fundamental Limits of Computation
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Ultimate (zetta-wattaflop) Computing Machine according to Seth Lloyd
a 1-kg computer compressed to the black-hole limit can perform :
1051 ops/sec
on its: 1016 bits, updated at a rate of about : 1035 update/sec
Seth Lloyd - “Ultimate physical limits to computation” Nature, 2000
Quantum Physics Theory
Super computers nowadays achieve
1015 ops/sec
with a pace of Moore’s law: x2 every 1.5 years technology needs~ 250 years to reach these limits
The Benchmark…
~ 1016 ops/sec
25 Watt
1350 cm3
1500 gr
SurfaceI7 CPU: 160 mm2Brain : ~ 160 000 mm2
Assuming an I7 of the same surface
Operations per SecondI7 CPU: 10^11 Ops x 1000 = 10^14Brain : ~ 10^16 Ops
PowerI7 CPU: 77 Watts x 1000 = 77 K WattsBrain : 25 Watts
Computing Platforms in 2030• Personal Computer [$1000]
– 10^10 Flops/sec in 2010 ⇒ 10^16 – 10^17 Flops/sec
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• Supercomputer [$100,000,000]– 10^15 Flops/sec in 2010 ⇒10^21 – 10^22 Flops/sec
• Number of Computers [global population ~10^10]– SCs ⇒ 10^-8 –10^-6 per person ⇒ 10^2 – 10^4 systems– PCs ⇒ .1x – 10x per person ⇒10^9 – 10^11 systems– Embedded ⇒ 10x – 10^5x per person ⇒ 10^11 – 10^15 systems– Nanocomputers ⇒ 0x – 10^10 per person ⇒ 0 – 10^20 systems
Available Flops Planet-wide10^24 – 10^30 Flops/sec
[assuming classical models of computation]
Many Paradigm Changes• Vertical Integration
– High core-cache bandwidth (new scaling roadmap for 15 years)
• Heat Removal– Liquid cooling and heat re-use
• New Materials– Carbon Nanostructured
• Supply and Cooling area vs. Transistors area– Electrochemical power supply
• Production process– 3D printing
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Annual meeting American Physical Society 1959
Still … Plenty of Room at the Bottom… But there is plenty of room to
make them [computers]smaller.
There is nothing that I can see in the physical law that says the computer elements cannot be made enormously smaller than they are now.….
R. FEYNMAN
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The only stable component in nature
is the change!
The tentative fourth law of thermodynamics. S.E. Joergensen
Thank you for your attention