investor presentation - scatec solar · 2019-08-07 · the following presentation is being made...
TRANSCRIPT
Investor presentation
July 2019
Disclaimer
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The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not a relevant person should not rely, act or make assessment on the basis of this presentation or anything included therein.
The following presentation may include information related to investments made and key commercial terms thereof, including future returns. Such information cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Scatec Solar ASA or any company within the Scatec Solar Group. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Scatec Solar Group’s growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives as well as forward looking statements and any such information or forward-looking statements regarding the future and/or the Scatec Solar Group’s expectations are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.
Contents
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• Introduction
• The solar market
• Business model
• Financials
• Outlook and guidance
Scatec Solar – a frontrunner in renewable energy
We develop, build, own and operate utility-scale solar power plants
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IN OPERATION & UNDER
CONSTRUCTION
PROJECT BACKLOG & PIPELINE
5.1 GW1.9 GW
CAPACITY BY END 2021
3.5 GWEMPLOYEES
292
Recent achievements
5
Commercial operation for thefirst three power plants in Egypt – 190 MW in total
Commercial operation for the 65 MW Jasin and 66 MW Merchangsolar plants in Malaysia
Strategic collaboration agreement for 485 MW in Vietnam
Scatec Solar and FMO enter equity partnership for the Kamianka project in Ukraine
Power production reached 198 GWh in Q2 19, up 83% year on year
Financial close and start of construction for two new solar plants in Ukraine – 109 MW
A portfolio of 951 MW in operation – track record of 1 GW+
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Honduras, 95 MW Malaysia, 197 MW South Africa, 190 MW
Rwanda, 9 MW
Brazil, 162 MW
Czech, 20 MWJordan, 43 MW
Eqypt, 195 MW
Mozambique, 40 MW
Scatec Solar’s average economic interest: 60%
Almost 1 GW under construction on four continents
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Argentina, 117 MW
Egypt, 195 MWSouth Africa, 258 MW
Malaysia, 47 MW
Ukraine, 336 MW
Scatec Solar’s average economic interest: 66%
Ukraine:
336 MW closed financing and started construction over the last months
• Capex: EUR 124 mill
• Financing partners:
• Power China Guizhou Engineering (construction Financing)
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Progressovka, 148 MW Chigirin, 55 MW Rengy, 47 MW Kamianka, 32 MWBoguslav, 54 MW
• Capex: EUR 53 mill
• Financing partners:• EBRD
• NEFCO
• Swedfund
• Capex: EUR 54 mill
• Financing partners:• FMO
• GIEK
• Green for Growth Fund
• Capex: EUR 52 mill
• Financing partners:• EBRD
• Black Sea Trade and Development Bank
• Capex: EUR 34 mill
• Financing partners:• EBRD
• FMO
The Kamianka project under construction.
Strong market traction - backlog and pipeline now exceeding 5 GW
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Latin America880 MW (+47 MW)
Africa2,280 MW (+174 MW)
Southeast Asia1,340 MW (+516 MW)
Europe and Central Asia
410 MW (-60 MW)
All figures are as per reporting date for second quarter 2019.
Backlog286 MW
Pipeline4,850 MW(+677 MW)
Bi-lateral28 %
FiT28 %
Project tender32 %
Price tender12 %
Scatec Solar is securing a major market position in Vietnam
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Our project portfolio:
• Backlog: 108 MW + Pipeline: 750 MW
• Includes both land based and floating solar
• Target construction start in 2020
• Significant additional opportunities
Our approach:
• Active in Vietnam since 2017 - working with local partners
• Project finance expected from international development banks
• Invite reputable equity partners
Image: China/Newscom
We have advanced into a top 10 global independent solar PV developer
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0 2,000 12,0006,000 10,000 14,0004,000 8,000
Enel Green Power
SunEdison
First Solar
GCL New Energy
Engie
EDF
Scatec Solar
Enerparc
Total (SunPower and Eren)
Canadian Solar
Adani
Marubeni
Equis
Neoen
Lightsource
Asia Pacific
North America
Europe
Latin America
Middle East and North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
MW, operational and under development
Upstream
Direct peers
• Top 10 global utility-scale solar developer • A broad portfolio across emerging markets
Source: GTM Research
Our success is based on our integrated business model combined with a strong entrepreneurial culture
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• Agile and lean
• Entrepreneurial culture
• Passionate and empowered people
• Strong talent bench
• Fully integrated
• Structuring and financing
• Financial discipline
• Partnerships
Business model People
Predictable Working together Driving results Changemakers
The Solar Market
Multiple governmental drivers for solar PV demand
Demand for solar is growing significantly across emerging markets
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Main drivers
Time-to-market
Cost of energy
Energy security
More foreign
investments
Employment and economic
growth
Climate treaty
& national actionplans
Annual global solar PV demand forecast - GW
20202014
45
130
2016 2018 2019 2021
75
105
117
127
Rest of Asia
USAMENA
Rest of WorldSub-Saharan Africa
Latin America
China
India
Europe
Source: BloombergNEF Q1 2019 conservative forecast
Solar is one of the world’s most competitive sources of energy
• The levelized cost of solar has come down 83% since 2010 – industry scale and technology
• Solar is now the lowest cost source of energy across the sun-rich regions globally
• Storage and hybrid solutions are expected to become increasingly important for demand
• New business propositions are emerging when solar is cost competitive with base load
Cost of alternative energy sources (LCOE, USD/MWh)
15
0
50
100
150
200
250
Solar PV CoalWind Gas base load
Gas peakload
Nuclear
Source: Lazard Capital, LCOE v12, Scatec Solar
Diesel
A solid business case for corporates sourcing solar across emerging markets
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Cost of electricity for corporates in emerging markets
0
50
100
150
200
250
Solar on 20 yr contracts
On-grid Power –unreliable and blackouts
Off-grid Diesel –high opex and logistics
Source: Lazard Capital, Scatec Solar
LCOE, USD/MWh
A large potential to replace diesel and oil based power generation globally
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• Total installed capacity of more than 500 GW of diesel and heavy fuel oil gen sets globally
• Annual installations of more than 35 GW in emerging markets
• Installed base of more than 250 GW in Africa
• More than 10 GW new capacity installed annually
• Significant potential in Africa, Southeast Asia, Middle-East and Latin America
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Scatec Solar analysis.
Business model
Scatec Solar’s value chain
• Site development & permitting
• System design
• Business case development
• PPA negotiation
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Project development Financing OperationsOwnership (IPP)Construction
• Debt/Equity structuring
• Due diligence
• Engineering and procurement
• Construction management
• Maximize performance and availability
• Maintenance and repair
• Asset management
• Financial optimization
We develop, build, own & operate solar plants for 20 years
Scatec Solar is partnering with Governments and Development banks
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• As cost of solar continues to decline - governments are looking to solar to cover their power needs and grow the economy
• Governments in emerging economies finds private/public partnerships very attractive implementation model (IPPs)
• Multilateral development banks typically with a long standing presence and experience in the county
• Project structures and contracts designed to mitigate risk (political financial, compliance etc)
Creates business opportunities and Reduces risks of Scatec Solar’s investments
Our business model and typical project structure
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Simplified illustration of company structure and main contracts in place
Scatec Solar O&M / EPC
Single Purpose Vehicle
State owned utility
Project financing
Scatec SolarEquity co-investors
State government
• EPC contract • O&M contract• Asset Management
contract
Loan agreements
• Sovereign guarantee• Concession
agreement
PPA agreement
Land lease agreements
Land owners
Shareholders agreement
World Bank/others
• Political risk insurance (when relevant)
100% 39%-100%
Component Suppliers
Sub-Contractors
A business model enabling «self funded» growth
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D&C margin
13(12.5%)
100(100%)
Partner’s equity share
Total capex Debt Financing
75(75%)
13(12.5%)
SSO equity
13(12.5%)
USDm
• All projects enters 20-25 year PPAs with fixed tariffs with state owned utilities
• The power plants are financed with non-recourse debt, and the PPAs allows Scatec Solar to operate with high financial leverage at project level
• The D&C gross margin covers a large part of the Scatec Solar’s equity contribution in the project
100 MW project expample
Stable project cash flows based on PPAs - allowing for a non-recourse debt structure
• Tariffs fixed for 20-25 years
• Take or pay all volume produced
• Structuring of project debt in same currency as power sales revenues
• Inflation adjusted tariffs in PPA
• Project finance debt with fixed interest of 10 years or more from grid connection
• PPAs with state owned utilities with government guarantees
• Financing partners with strong government relations
• Political risk insurance or equivalent in selected markets
Power price & volume
CurrencyInterest rateCounterparty
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Managing financial risk
PPA: Power purchase agreement
Scatec Solar utilises new technology to improve power plant performance
• The world’s largest solar park with bi-facial modules
• 390 MW / 870 GWh annual production
• Test station established on site
• Real-time data from all plants globally 24/7
• Improving operational quality and efficiency
• Increasing uptime and production yield
Bi-facial solar modules, Egypt Global control & monitoring centre, Cape Town
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There is a significant value of solar power plants post Power Purchase Agreements
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Post PPA value:
• Power Purchase Agreements of 20-25 years
• Technical life of solar plants of 35+ years
• Scatec Solar have secured land rights for 35+ years
• Market power prices are expected continue to increase – especially across emerging markets
• After 20 years the marginal cost of solar power production is very limited
• Fully depreciated and debt free plants
• No fuel cost
• Limited cost of operation & maintenanceThe 40 MW Linde plant in South Africa.
Sustainability is an integrated part of our business
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Sustainability is;
• Project risk mitigation and value creation
• Local engagement and strong community relations
• Facilitating strong partnerships (project and group level)
• A competitive advantage if done well
Financials
Growth across all business segments – set to continue
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380
981
Q2 17 Q2 18 Q2 19
1,289
Proportionate financials - last 12 months (NOK million)
673
3,170
Q2 19Q2 18Q2 17
6,101
78
396
700
Q2 19Q2 17 Q2 18
Revenues Cash flow to Equity*• A stable D&C business
• Half of proportionate EBITDA
• Stable margins - within guidance
• Growing power production
• 1.9 GW in operation & under construction
• Long term cash flows secured
• Average 19 years remaining PPA tenor of plants in operation
• O&M – securing stable operations
*Cash flow to equity is defined as EBITDA less normalised (i.e. average o over each calendar year) loan and net interest repayments less normalised income tax payments. The definition implies changes in net working capital and investing activities are excluded from the figure.
EBITDA
Proportionate revenues by segment (NOK million)
Q2’19:
Record results – EBITDA up 46% year on year
Proportionate EBITDA by segment (NOK million)
29
150 155
180
208272
Q1 19
1,077
Q2 18
1,045
Q4 18Q3 18
1,2971,466
1,339
Q2 19
1,666
1,229 1,259
1,5281,648
Corporate
Development & Construction
Power Production
Operations & Maintenance
140 130202
159 165
121 127
139168
221
Q1 19Q2 18
329
Q3 18 Q4 18
257
Q2 19
266
315
388
A solid financial position
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• Group free cash of NOK 560 million
• Undrawn Revolving Credit Facility at NOK 775 million
• Group* book equity strengthened to NOK 3,318 million – equity ratio of 82%
Consolidated financial position (NOK million)
NOK million Consolidated SSO prop. Share Group level*
Cash 2,375 1,743 560
Interest bearing liabilities* -11,742 -7,747 -744
Net debt -9,367 -6,005 -184
As of 31.12.2018 As of 30.06.2019
* Defined as ‘recourse group’ in the corporate bond and loan agreements
10,647 10,647
17,492 17,492
10 583
12 959
1 800
2 4102 475
2 123
10 415
12 811
4 442
4 681
Assets Equity & Liabilities Assets Equity & Liabilities
Current assets Non-current assets Equity Current liabilities Non-current liabilities
14,85714,857
Q2’19 movement of free cash at group level
31
785
560
29 130
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End Q1 Cash flow to equity O&M
Distributions from operating power plants
Cash flow to equity D&C
-18
Dividend to ASA shareholders
Cash flow to equity Corporate
-264
Project equity
-10
Project Development
capex
-1085
Working Capital/other
End Q2
NOK million
Development of project backlog
and pipeline
Ukraine
Net working capital construction projects
Movement of cash in ‘recourse group’ as defined in the corporate bond and loan agreements.
Our principles for investments and financing
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Transactional and operational control- SSO the lead developer and investor
D&C margins - key contribution to equity positions
Working capital - managed through project structuring
Moderate debt at group level - reflecting debt capacity of long term cash flows
Dividends- 50% of free cash flow from operating power plants
Outlook and guidance
Short term guidance
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• 2019 O&M revenues of NOK 110-120 million with an EBITDA margin of around 30%
• D&C value for 993 MW under construction: NOK 5.3 billion
• Remaining NOK 2.9 billion value to be recognised
• Power production from plants in operation end Q2:
GWh Q2’19 Q3’19e 2019e
Proportionate 198 260-285 800-850
100% basis 346 460-490 1,450-1,650
New investments generate significant value from D&C and Power Production
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Key figures – NOK million 1.9 GW in operation & under construction
1.6 GW new capacity towards 2021
Total 3.5 GW by end 2021
SSO’s economic interest 63% 50% – 70% 50% – 70%
Capex , 100% 20,700 13,000 – 15,000 34,000 – 36,000
SSO’s equity investments 3,900* 1,300 – 1,900 5,200 – 5,800
Development & Construction – after tax margin 1,050 – 1,150 1,300 – 1,900 2,000 – 2,500
Annual cash flow to equity - Power Production & O&M 550 – 600 200 – 250 750 – 850
(*) About NOK 400 million remains to be invested. Based on equity financing of the Los Prados project. Figures in the table above are estimates.
Our 3.5 GW target: Stay selective and focus on value creation
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Continued strong focus on HSSE and sustainability throughout all project phases
Realizing
3.5 GW capacity
Value of NOK
1.5 mill. per MW
D&C contribution of NOK 2.0 – 2.5 billion
Annual cash flow from operating solar plants of NOK 750 – 850 million
D&C gross margin; 12-15%
Equity IRR on power plant investments; 15%
Further enhancing our emerging market footprint
• Technology improvements and cost reductions continues to drive demand
• We are strengthening our market position and expanding into new countries
• A well-proven business model with a present execution capacity of 800-1,200 MW per year
• Capital Markets Update 18 September 2019:
- Expanding our platform for increased growth
The 75 MW Kalkbult solar plant, South Africa.
Our asset portfolio – July 2019
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CAPACITY ECONOMIC
MW INTEREST
Malaysia: Gurun, Jasin, Merchang 197 100%
Egypt: Benban 195 51%
South Africa: R1 & R2 190 45%Brazil: Apodi Solar 162 44%Honduras: Agua Fria, Los Prados I 95 51%Jordan: EJRE/GLAE, Oryx 43 59%
Mozambique: Mocuba 40 53%Czech Republic 20 100%Rwanda: Asyv 9 54%Total 951 60%
CAPACITY ECONOMIC
MW INTEREST
Ukraine: Rengy, Kamianka, Progressovka, Chigirin, Boguslav 336 89%
South Africa: Upington 258 46%Egypt: Benban 195 51%Argentina: Guañizuil 117 50%
Malaysia: Redsol 47 100%Total 953 66%
CAPACITY ECONOMIC
MW INTEREST
Vietnam 108 65%Ukraine 65 65%Bangladesh 62 65%Mali 33 51%Honduras 18 70%Total 286 64%
In operation: Under construction: Project backlog: