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Page 1: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Investor presentation

July 2019

Page 2: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Disclaimer

2

The following presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be communicated (’relevant persons’). Any person who is not a relevant person should not rely, act or make assessment on the basis of this presentation or anything included therein.

The following presentation may include information related to investments made and key commercial terms thereof, including future returns. Such information cannot be relied upon as a guide to the future performance of such investments. The release, publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such restrictions. This presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Scatec Solar ASA or any company within the Scatec Solar Group. This presentation contains statements regarding the future in connection with the Scatec Solar Group’s growth initiatives, profit figures, outlook, strategies and objectives as well as forward looking statements and any such information or forward-looking statements regarding the future and/or the Scatec Solar Group’s expectations are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, and many factors can lead to actual profits and developments deviating substantially from what has been expressed or implied in such statements.

Page 3: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Contents

3

• Introduction

• The solar market

• Business model

• Financials

• Outlook and guidance

Page 4: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Scatec Solar – a frontrunner in renewable energy

We develop, build, own and operate utility-scale solar power plants

4

IN OPERATION & UNDER

CONSTRUCTION

PROJECT BACKLOG & PIPELINE

5.1 GW1.9 GW

CAPACITY BY END 2021

3.5 GWEMPLOYEES

292

Page 5: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Recent achievements

5

Commercial operation for thefirst three power plants in Egypt – 190 MW in total

Commercial operation for the 65 MW Jasin and 66 MW Merchangsolar plants in Malaysia

Strategic collaboration agreement for 485 MW in Vietnam

Scatec Solar and FMO enter equity partnership for the Kamianka project in Ukraine

Power production reached 198 GWh in Q2 19, up 83% year on year

Financial close and start of construction for two new solar plants in Ukraine – 109 MW

Page 6: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

A portfolio of 951 MW in operation – track record of 1 GW+

6

Honduras, 95 MW Malaysia, 197 MW South Africa, 190 MW

Rwanda, 9 MW

Brazil, 162 MW

Czech, 20 MWJordan, 43 MW

Eqypt, 195 MW

Mozambique, 40 MW

Scatec Solar’s average economic interest: 60%

Page 7: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Almost 1 GW under construction on four continents

7

Argentina, 117 MW

Egypt, 195 MWSouth Africa, 258 MW

Malaysia, 47 MW

Ukraine, 336 MW

Scatec Solar’s average economic interest: 66%

Page 8: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Ukraine:

336 MW closed financing and started construction over the last months

• Capex: EUR 124 mill

• Financing partners:

• Power China Guizhou Engineering (construction Financing)

8

Progressovka, 148 MW Chigirin, 55 MW Rengy, 47 MW Kamianka, 32 MWBoguslav, 54 MW

• Capex: EUR 53 mill

• Financing partners:• EBRD

• NEFCO

• Swedfund

• Capex: EUR 54 mill

• Financing partners:• FMO

• GIEK

• Green for Growth Fund

• Capex: EUR 52 mill

• Financing partners:• EBRD

• Black Sea Trade and Development Bank

• Capex: EUR 34 mill

• Financing partners:• EBRD

• FMO

The Kamianka project under construction.

Page 9: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Strong market traction - backlog and pipeline now exceeding 5 GW

9

Latin America880 MW (+47 MW)

Africa2,280 MW (+174 MW)

Southeast Asia1,340 MW (+516 MW)

Europe and Central Asia

410 MW (-60 MW)

All figures are as per reporting date for second quarter 2019.

Backlog286 MW

Pipeline4,850 MW(+677 MW)

Bi-lateral28 %

FiT28 %

Project tender32 %

Price tender12 %

Page 10: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Scatec Solar is securing a major market position in Vietnam

10

Our project portfolio:

• Backlog: 108 MW + Pipeline: 750 MW

• Includes both land based and floating solar

• Target construction start in 2020

• Significant additional opportunities

Our approach:

• Active in Vietnam since 2017 - working with local partners

• Project finance expected from international development banks

• Invite reputable equity partners

Image: China/Newscom

Page 11: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

We have advanced into a top 10 global independent solar PV developer

11

0 2,000 12,0006,000 10,000 14,0004,000 8,000

Enel Green Power

SunEdison

First Solar

GCL New Energy

Engie

EDF

Scatec Solar

Enerparc

Total (SunPower and Eren)

Canadian Solar

Adani

Marubeni

Equis

Neoen

Lightsource

Asia Pacific

North America

Europe

Latin America

Middle East and North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

MW, operational and under development

Upstream

Direct peers

• Top 10 global utility-scale solar developer • A broad portfolio across emerging markets

Source: GTM Research

Page 12: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Our success is based on our integrated business model combined with a strong entrepreneurial culture

12

• Agile and lean

• Entrepreneurial culture

• Passionate and empowered people

• Strong talent bench

• Fully integrated

• Structuring and financing

• Financial discipline

• Partnerships

Business model People

Predictable Working together Driving results Changemakers

Page 13: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

The Solar Market

Page 14: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Multiple governmental drivers for solar PV demand

Demand for solar is growing significantly across emerging markets

14

Main drivers

Time-to-market

Cost of energy

Energy security

More foreign

investments

Employment and economic

growth

Climate treaty

& national actionplans

Annual global solar PV demand forecast - GW

20202014

45

130

2016 2018 2019 2021

75

105

117

127

Rest of Asia

USAMENA

Rest of WorldSub-Saharan Africa

Latin America

China

India

Europe

Source: BloombergNEF Q1 2019 conservative forecast

Page 15: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Solar is one of the world’s most competitive sources of energy

• The levelized cost of solar has come down 83% since 2010 – industry scale and technology

• Solar is now the lowest cost source of energy across the sun-rich regions globally

• Storage and hybrid solutions are expected to become increasingly important for demand

• New business propositions are emerging when solar is cost competitive with base load

Cost of alternative energy sources (LCOE, USD/MWh)

15

0

50

100

150

200

250

Solar PV CoalWind Gas base load

Gas peakload

Nuclear

Source: Lazard Capital, LCOE v12, Scatec Solar

Diesel

Page 16: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

A solid business case for corporates sourcing solar across emerging markets

16

Cost of electricity for corporates in emerging markets

0

50

100

150

200

250

Solar on 20 yr contracts

On-grid Power –unreliable and blackouts

Off-grid Diesel –high opex and logistics

Source: Lazard Capital, Scatec Solar

LCOE, USD/MWh

Page 17: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

A large potential to replace diesel and oil based power generation globally

17

• Total installed capacity of more than 500 GW of diesel and heavy fuel oil gen sets globally

• Annual installations of more than 35 GW in emerging markets

• Installed base of more than 250 GW in Africa

• More than 10 GW new capacity installed annually

• Significant potential in Africa, Southeast Asia, Middle-East and Latin America

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Scatec Solar analysis.

Page 18: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Business model

Page 19: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Scatec Solar’s value chain

• Site development & permitting

• System design

• Business case development

• PPA negotiation

19

Project development Financing OperationsOwnership (IPP)Construction

• Debt/Equity structuring

• Due diligence

• Engineering and procurement

• Construction management

• Maximize performance and availability

• Maintenance and repair

• Asset management

• Financial optimization

We develop, build, own & operate solar plants for 20 years

Page 20: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Scatec Solar is partnering with Governments and Development banks

20

• As cost of solar continues to decline - governments are looking to solar to cover their power needs and grow the economy

• Governments in emerging economies finds private/public partnerships very attractive implementation model (IPPs)

• Multilateral development banks typically with a long standing presence and experience in the county

• Project structures and contracts designed to mitigate risk (political financial, compliance etc)

Creates business opportunities and Reduces risks of Scatec Solar’s investments

Page 21: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Our business model and typical project structure

21

Simplified illustration of company structure and main contracts in place

Scatec Solar O&M / EPC

Single Purpose Vehicle

State owned utility

Project financing

Scatec SolarEquity co-investors

State government

• EPC contract • O&M contract• Asset Management

contract

Loan agreements

• Sovereign guarantee• Concession

agreement

PPA agreement

Land lease agreements

Land owners

Shareholders agreement

World Bank/others

• Political risk insurance (when relevant)

100% 39%-100%

Component Suppliers

Sub-Contractors

Page 22: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

A business model enabling «self funded» growth

22

D&C margin

13(12.5%)

100(100%)

Partner’s equity share

Total capex Debt Financing

75(75%)

13(12.5%)

SSO equity

13(12.5%)

USDm

• All projects enters 20-25 year PPAs with fixed tariffs with state owned utilities

• The power plants are financed with non-recourse debt, and the PPAs allows Scatec Solar to operate with high financial leverage at project level

• The D&C gross margin covers a large part of the Scatec Solar’s equity contribution in the project

100 MW project expample

Page 23: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Stable project cash flows based on PPAs - allowing for a non-recourse debt structure

• Tariffs fixed for 20-25 years

• Take or pay all volume produced

• Structuring of project debt in same currency as power sales revenues

• Inflation adjusted tariffs in PPA

• Project finance debt with fixed interest of 10 years or more from grid connection

• PPAs with state owned utilities with government guarantees

• Financing partners with strong government relations

• Political risk insurance or equivalent in selected markets

Power price & volume

CurrencyInterest rateCounterparty

23

Managing financial risk

PPA: Power purchase agreement

Page 24: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Scatec Solar utilises new technology to improve power plant performance

• The world’s largest solar park with bi-facial modules

• 390 MW / 870 GWh annual production

• Test station established on site

• Real-time data from all plants globally 24/7

• Improving operational quality and efficiency

• Increasing uptime and production yield

Bi-facial solar modules, Egypt Global control & monitoring centre, Cape Town

24

Page 25: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

There is a significant value of solar power plants post Power Purchase Agreements

25

Post PPA value:

• Power Purchase Agreements of 20-25 years

• Technical life of solar plants of 35+ years

• Scatec Solar have secured land rights for 35+ years

• Market power prices are expected continue to increase – especially across emerging markets

• After 20 years the marginal cost of solar power production is very limited

• Fully depreciated and debt free plants

• No fuel cost

• Limited cost of operation & maintenanceThe 40 MW Linde plant in South Africa.

Page 26: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Sustainability is an integrated part of our business

26

Sustainability is;

• Project risk mitigation and value creation

• Local engagement and strong community relations

• Facilitating strong partnerships (project and group level)

• A competitive advantage if done well

Page 27: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Financials

Page 28: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Growth across all business segments – set to continue

28

380

981

Q2 17 Q2 18 Q2 19

1,289

Proportionate financials - last 12 months (NOK million)

673

3,170

Q2 19Q2 18Q2 17

6,101

78

396

700

Q2 19Q2 17 Q2 18

Revenues Cash flow to Equity*• A stable D&C business

• Half of proportionate EBITDA

• Stable margins - within guidance

• Growing power production

• 1.9 GW in operation & under construction

• Long term cash flows secured

• Average 19 years remaining PPA tenor of plants in operation

• O&M – securing stable operations

*Cash flow to equity is defined as EBITDA less normalised (i.e. average o over each calendar year) loan and net interest repayments less normalised income tax payments. The definition implies changes in net working capital and investing activities are excluded from the figure.

EBITDA

Page 29: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Proportionate revenues by segment (NOK million)

Q2’19:

Record results – EBITDA up 46% year on year

Proportionate EBITDA by segment (NOK million)

29

150 155

180

208272

Q1 19

1,077

Q2 18

1,045

Q4 18Q3 18

1,2971,466

1,339

Q2 19

1,666

1,229 1,259

1,5281,648

Corporate

Development & Construction

Power Production

Operations & Maintenance

140 130202

159 165

121 127

139168

221

Q1 19Q2 18

329

Q3 18 Q4 18

257

Q2 19

266

315

388

Page 30: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

A solid financial position

30

• Group free cash of NOK 560 million

• Undrawn Revolving Credit Facility at NOK 775 million

• Group* book equity strengthened to NOK 3,318 million – equity ratio of 82%

Consolidated financial position (NOK million)

NOK million Consolidated SSO prop. Share Group level*

Cash 2,375 1,743 560

Interest bearing liabilities* -11,742 -7,747 -744

Net debt -9,367 -6,005 -184

As of 31.12.2018 As of 30.06.2019

* Defined as ‘recourse group’ in the corporate bond and loan agreements

10,647 10,647

17,492 17,492

10 583

12 959

1 800

2 4102 475

2 123

10 415

12 811

4 442

4 681

Assets Equity & Liabilities Assets Equity & Liabilities

Current assets Non-current assets Equity Current liabilities Non-current liabilities

14,85714,857

Page 31: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Q2’19 movement of free cash at group level

31

785

560

29 130

11

End Q1 Cash flow to equity O&M

Distributions from operating power plants

Cash flow to equity D&C

-18

Dividend to ASA shareholders

Cash flow to equity Corporate

-264

Project equity

-10

Project Development

capex

-1085

Working Capital/other

End Q2

NOK million

Development of project backlog

and pipeline

Ukraine

Net working capital construction projects

Movement of cash in ‘recourse group’ as defined in the corporate bond and loan agreements.

Page 32: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Our principles for investments and financing

32

Transactional and operational control- SSO the lead developer and investor

D&C margins - key contribution to equity positions

Working capital - managed through project structuring

Moderate debt at group level - reflecting debt capacity of long term cash flows

Dividends- 50% of free cash flow from operating power plants

Page 33: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Outlook and guidance

Page 34: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Short term guidance

34

• 2019 O&M revenues of NOK 110-120 million with an EBITDA margin of around 30%

• D&C value for 993 MW under construction: NOK 5.3 billion

• Remaining NOK 2.9 billion value to be recognised

• Power production from plants in operation end Q2:

GWh Q2’19 Q3’19e 2019e

Proportionate 198 260-285 800-850

100% basis 346 460-490 1,450-1,650

Page 35: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

New investments generate significant value from D&C and Power Production

35

Key figures – NOK million 1.9 GW in operation & under construction

1.6 GW new capacity towards 2021

Total 3.5 GW by end 2021

SSO’s economic interest 63% 50% – 70% 50% – 70%

Capex , 100% 20,700 13,000 – 15,000 34,000 – 36,000

SSO’s equity investments 3,900* 1,300 – 1,900 5,200 – 5,800

Development & Construction – after tax margin 1,050 – 1,150 1,300 – 1,900 2,000 – 2,500

Annual cash flow to equity - Power Production & O&M 550 – 600 200 – 250 750 – 850

(*) About NOK 400 million remains to be invested. Based on equity financing of the Los Prados project. Figures in the table above are estimates.

Page 36: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Our 3.5 GW target: Stay selective and focus on value creation

36

Continued strong focus on HSSE and sustainability throughout all project phases

Realizing

3.5 GW capacity

Value of NOK

1.5 mill. per MW

D&C contribution of NOK 2.0 – 2.5 billion

Annual cash flow from operating solar plants of NOK 750 – 850 million

D&C gross margin; 12-15%

Equity IRR on power plant investments; 15%

Page 37: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Further enhancing our emerging market footprint

• Technology improvements and cost reductions continues to drive demand

• We are strengthening our market position and expanding into new countries

• A well-proven business model with a present execution capacity of 800-1,200 MW per year

• Capital Markets Update 18 September 2019:

- Expanding our platform for increased growth

The 75 MW Kalkbult solar plant, South Africa.

Page 38: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa
Page 39: Investor presentation - Scatec Solar · 2019-08-07 · The following presentation is being made only to, ... 2016 2018 2019 2021 75 105 117 127 Rest of Asia MENA USA Sub-Saharan Africa

Our asset portfolio – July 2019

39

CAPACITY ECONOMIC

MW INTEREST

Malaysia: Gurun, Jasin, Merchang 197 100%

Egypt: Benban 195 51%

South Africa: R1 & R2 190 45%Brazil: Apodi Solar 162 44%Honduras: Agua Fria, Los Prados I 95 51%Jordan: EJRE/GLAE, Oryx 43 59%

Mozambique: Mocuba 40 53%Czech Republic 20 100%Rwanda: Asyv 9 54%Total 951 60%

CAPACITY ECONOMIC

MW INTEREST

Ukraine: Rengy, Kamianka, Progressovka, Chigirin, Boguslav 336 89%

South Africa: Upington 258 46%Egypt: Benban 195 51%Argentina: Guañizuil 117 50%

Malaysia: Redsol 47 100%Total 953 66%

CAPACITY ECONOMIC

MW INTEREST

Vietnam 108 65%Ukraine 65 65%Bangladesh 62 65%Mali 33 51%Honduras 18 70%Total 286 64%

In operation: Under construction: Project backlog: