investor presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of october...
TRANSCRIPT
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Investor Presentation 3Q 2014
NOVEMBER 4, 2014
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2 November 4, 2014
Disclaimer
Certain statements contained in this presentation are forward-looking statements and are based on future expectations, plans and
prospects for Moody’s business and operations that involve a number of risks and uncertainties. Moody’s outlook for 2014 and
other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to
supplement, update or revise such statements on a going-forward basis, whether as a result of subsequent developments,
changed expectations or otherwise. In connection with the “safe harbor” provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act
of 1995, the Company is identifying certain factors that could cause actual results to differ, perhaps materially, from those
indicated by these forward-looking statements. Those factors, risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the current
world-wide Moody’s Market disruptions and economic slowdown, which is affecting and could continue to affect the volume of debt
and other securities issued in domestic and/or global capital markets; other matters that could affect the volume of debt and other
securities issued in domestic and/or global capital markets, including credit quality concerns, changes in interest rates and other
volatility in the financial markets; the level of merger and acquisition activity in the US and abroad; the uncertain effectiveness and
possible collateral consequences of U.S. and foreign government initiatives to respond to the current world-wide credit disruptions
and economic slowdown; concerns in the marketplace affecting our credibility or otherwise affecting market perceptions of the
integrity or utility of independent agency ratings; the introduction of competing products or technologies by other companies;
pricing pressure from competitors and/or customers; the level of success of new product development and global expansion; the
impact of regulation as an NRSRO, the potential for new U.S., state and local legislation and regulations, including provisions in
the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act and anticipated regulations resulting from that Act; the potential
for increased competition and regulation in the EU and other foreign jurisdictions; exposure to litigation related to our rating
opinions, as well as any other litigation to which the Company may be subject from time to time; provisions in the Dodd-Frank Act
legislation modifying the pleading standards, and EU regulations modifying the liability standards, applicable to credit rating
agencies in a manner adverse to credit rating agencies; provisions of EU regulations imposing additional procedural and
substantive requirements on the pricing of services; the possible loss of key employees; failures or malfunctions of our operations
and infrastructure; any vulnerabilities to cyber threats or other cybersecurity concerns; the outcome of any review by controlling tax
authorities of the Company’s global tax planning initiatives; the outcome of those legacy tax matters and legal contingencies that
relate to the Company, its predecessors and their affiliated companies for which Moody’s has assumed portions of the financial
responsibility; the impact of mergers, acquisitions or other business combinations and the ability of the Company to successfully
integrate acquired businesses; currency and foreign exchange volatility; the level of future cash flows; the levels of capital
investments; a decline in the demand for credit risk management tools by financial institutions; and other risk factors as discussed
in the Company’s annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2013 and in other filings made by the Company
from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
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3 November 4, 2014
Table of Contents
1. Financial Overview
2. Moody’s Market Overview
3. Moody’s Investors Service (MIS)
4. Moody’s Analytics (MA)
5. Conclusion
6. Appendix
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4 November 4, 2014
4
Overview of Moody’s Corporation
$2,213 68%
$1,023 32%
Moody’s TTM Revenue:
$3.2 billion
Leading global provider of credit rating opinions, insight and
tools for financial risk measurement and management
Research, data and software for financial risk
analysis and related professional services Independent provider of credit rating opinions
and related information for over 100 years
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
38%
62%
Transaction Recurring
59%
41%
U.S. Non-U.S.
75%
25%
Transaction Recurring
45%
55%
U.S. Non-U.S.
Revenue represents consolidated trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2014, excluding intersegment revenue and eliminations.
Note: Total MCO recurring and transaction revenue split is 50/50; U.S. and Non-U.S. revenue split is 54/46.
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5 November 4, 2014
Financial Overview 1
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6 November 4, 2014
Revenue Growth, Operating Leverage and Balance Sheet Management Provide the Opportunity for EPS Growth
Potential Operating Income Margin Expansion
Ongoing Share Repurchases*
Long-Term EPS Growth Opportunity: Mid-Teens % (on average)**
Long-Term Revenue Growth Opportunity: Low Double-Digit % (on average)
*Subject to market conditions and other ongoing capital allocation decisions.
**Assumes no material change in effective tax rate, leverage profile and/or capital allocation policy.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody's Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Debt market
issuance driven
by global
GDP growth
~2-4%
Disintermediation
of credit markets
in both developed and
emerging economies
driving both issuance
and demand for
new products
and services
~2-3%
MA and MIS pricing
initiatives aligned
with value; affected by
business volumes and
mix
~4%
Growth in Moody’s
Analytics driven by
further penetration
of MA’s client base and
expansion of bank and
insurance risk
regulatory
requirements
~2-3%
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7 November 4, 2014
Moody’s Has Consistently Delivered Strong Performance Over a Challenging Global Economic Period
Operating Margin Performance 5-year Average Free Cash Flow Conversion***
Non-GAAP EPS Revenue
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F*
$ M
illio
ns
Corporate Finance Structured Finance Financial Institutions
Public, Project, and Infra Moody's Analytics
Low
double-digit
% growth
$0.10
$0.21
$0.30
S&P 500
SelectPeers****
Moody's
$1 of
Revenue
38.3% 38.0%
39.0% 39.5%
41.5% 42.8%
41.3% 42.4%
43.3% 44.7%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F*
Operating Margin Adj. Operating Margin**45.0%
to
46.0%
42.0%
to
43.0%
*Guidance as of October 29, 2014.
**Adjusted Operating Margin is a non-GAAP measure. See appendix for reconciliation from non-GAAP to GAAP.
***As of September 2014, over last five available fiscal years. Source: FactSet.
****Includes CLGX, DNB, EXPN, FDS, IHS, MHFI, MORN, MSCI, TRI, VRSK. Source: FactSet.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody's Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
$1.70
$2.13 $2.46
$2.99
$3.65 $3.95
to $4.05
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F*
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8 November 4, 2014
Share Repurchases and Dividends Paid
Moody’s has a Disciplined Approach to Capital Allocation and Continues to Return Capital to Shareholders
*Guidance as of October 29, 2014. Subject to market conditions and other ongoing capital allocation decisions.
$224 $334
$197
$893
$780
$95
$99 $121
$143
$197
$178
200
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
240
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 3Q14
Mill
ion
s o
f S
ha
res
$ M
illio
ns
Share Repurchases (L)
Dividends Paid (L)
Share Count (R)
$323
$455
$1,090
$340
$95
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» Expect approximately $1.25 billion in share repurchases in 2014*
» Current annualized dividend rate of $1.12 per share (YTD 3Q14 payout of 24% of net income)
– Dividend per share CAGR of 23% from 2009 –2014 annualized
$958
Return of Capital
» Dividend yield potential is
1.4% to 1.8%
» Dividend payout ratio
potential is 25% to 30%
Dividends
» Share repurchases on both
a programmatic and
opportunistic basis
» Average annual potential is
$750 million to $1 billion
Share Repurchases
Investing in Growth Opportunities
Reinvestment Acquisitions
» Invest in existing
businesses to support
organic growth
» Aligned with strategy
» Opportunistic; ideally able
to use offshore cash
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9 November 4, 2014
» One of three leading India-based domestic rating agencies
» Moody’s increased its ownership stake from 28.5% to over 50.0% in June 2014
» A cloud-based lending platform that provides loan origination, credit analysis and
loan management functionality to ~750 financial institutions
» Moody’s acquired WebEquity in mid-July 2014
» Provides outsourced research and analytical services to the global financial and
corporate sectors
» Expect to purchase the remaining outstanding shares in 4Q14 pursuant to a call
option as described in our SEC filings
Successful Execution of Recent Transactions
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» Provides analytical tools and data to issuers, investors and underwriters to
administer, monitor and value securitized transactions
» Moody’s acquired Lewtan in late October 2014
Approximately
$0.02 dilution
Approximately
$0.03 dilution
None
2014 EPS
Impact
Minimal
» 2014 combined revenue contribution of ~$150 million (run rate ~$180 million)
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10 November 4, 2014
Well-Spaced Maturity Profile Reduces Refinancing Risk
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '44
$ M
illio
ns
Debt Maturities
//
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» Moody’s current credit rating from S&P is BBB+
- Moody’s leverage metrics remain within S&P’s stated criteria for the current rating
» On July 16, 2014, Moody’s issued $750 million of unsecured notes in a public offering; uses of proceeds include
retiring its 2005 private placement notes (4.98% coupon), as well as general corporate purposes
- $450 million 5-year notes, at 2.75%, maturing on July 15, 2019
- $300 million 30-year notes, at 5.25%, maturing on July 15, 2044
- 2014 EPS dilution from retiring the 2005 private placement notes, as well as additional interest, is
approximately $0.04
10-yr notes
5-yr notes
30-yr notes
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11 November 4, 2014
Moody’s Market Overview 2
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12 November 4, 2014
Non-Financial Corporates Have Refunding Needs of Over $3 Trillion from 2015-2018
Debt Maturities: U.S. Moody’s-Rated Corporate Bonds & Loans
$147 $168 $162
$188
$29 $42 $66
$131
$19
$93
$143
$186
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2015 2016 2017 2018
$ B
illio
ns
Source: Moody’s
Investors Service,
February 2014.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Debt Maturities: EMEA Moody’s-Rated Corporate Bonds & Loans
$184 $209 $202 $194
$38 $49 $54
$97
$44 $56 $47 $48
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2015 2016 2017 2018
$ B
illio
ns
Source: Moody’s
Investors Service,
July 2014.
Debt Maturities: Asia Pacific Moody’s-Rated Corporate Bonds
$87 $90 $104 $80
$9 $11 $15 $18
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
2015 2016 2017 2018
$ B
illio
ns
Sources: Moody’s
Investors Service and
Bloomberg, July 2014.
Note: Data represents
rated and unrated bonds
of rated corporate entities
in Asia ex-Japan, Australia
and New Zealand. Data
does not include loans.
Investment Grade Bonds Speculative Grade Bonds Speculative Grade Bank Loans
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13 November 4, 2014
*Recurring Revenue recognized ratably over security life (MIS) and over contract period (MA).
Moody’s Recurring Revenue Base Provides Stability
$0
$425
$850
$1,275
$1,700
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM 3Q14
$ M
illio
ns
Corporate Finance Structured Finance
Financial Institutions Public, Project, & Infrastructure Finance
Moody's Analytics
Recurring Revenue*
» Growth in RD&A
» Growth in ERS
maintenance
and subscription
revenue
MA Drivers
» Growth in
monitoring fees
driven by new
mandates
» Pricing changes
MIS Drivers
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody's Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» High-single-digit % growth going forward
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14 November 4, 2014
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Bond Issuance Has Primarily Been Used for Refinancing; Recently, M&A Activity Has Noticeably Increased
Source: Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group.
*% of count of mentions for each respective period in bond issue or bank loan program tranche documents. Excludes Investment Grade issuance, issues of less than $25 million
and general corporate purposes.” An issue can have multiple purposes and, as a result, time period %’s for each category do not sum to 100%.
438%
227%
35%
-100%
100%
300%
500%
Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14
Buybacks
M&A
CapEx
Uses of Funds From USD High Yield Bonds and Bank Loans*
Growth in Buyback, M&A and Capex Activity: U.S. Non-Financial Corporates (Growth as a % of base period , TTM volume)
52%
83% 71% 74% 78% 80% 76% 66% 66% 70% 67% 57%
53%
19% 31% 30% 25% 20%
26% 37% 48% 40% 41% 53%
17% 11% 7% 8% 8% 9%
11% 8% 10% 7% 8% 7%
9% 4% 18% 17% 18% 16% 23% 24% 21% 23% 21% 19%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q'13 2Q'13 3Q'13 4Q'13 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14
% o
f S
am
ple
Siz
e
Shareholder Payments
Capital Spending
M&A
Debt Refinancing
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15 November 4, 2014
Changes in the Banking Sector Create Demand for Moody's Offerings
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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16 November 4, 2014
Disintermediation Continues in European Capital Markets
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» European bank loans have comprised approximately 80% of the outstanding debt in Europe (bonds
approximately 20%)
» European companies have historically relied more on banks than their American counterparts but are
increasingly turning to the bond market over traditional commercial bank loans
» For comparison, the U.S. debt markets have been more evenly split between bank loans and bonds
Sources: ECB, BarCap Indices. Europe bank loan data includes Eurozone and UK bank loans. Europe bond data includes euro and sterling denominated bonds.
European Non-Financial Corporate
Bank Loans Outstanding
4
8
%
€4,000
€4,200
€4,400
€4,600
€4,800
€5,000
€5,200
€5,400
€5,600
€5,800
€6,000
€ B
illio
ns
European Non-Financial Corporate
Bonds Outstanding
4
8
%
€400
€500
€600
€700
€800
€900
€1,000
€1,100
€1,200
€ B
illio
ns
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17 November 4, 2014
Growth in Newly-Rated Corporate Issuers
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Annual Count of Newly-Rated Non-Financial Corporate Issuers*
Source: Moody’s Investors Service.
*Rated by Moody’s Investors Service.
**Through October 24, 2014.
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 2014**
# o
f Is
su
ers
Europe U.S. Emerging Markets (ex-Europe) Rest of World
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18 November 4, 2014
Growing Regulatory Requirements for Financial Institutions
Source: Moody’s Analytics market research as of April 2014.
1. In the EU, the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) will be implemented faster than originally envisaged under Basel III. The timetable will be: 60% by 2015, 70% by 2016, 80% by 2017
and 100% by 2018.
2. The higher loss absorbency requirements for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) will be phased in from January 2016, with full implementation by January 2019.
3. In the U.S., advanced-approach banks and non-bank systemically important financial institutions (SIFI) institutions will have to meet 80% of the LCR by January 1, 2015 and 100% of
the ratio by January 1, 2017.
4. Insurance Capital Standard.
5. The new standardized approach (SA-CCR) replaces both the Current Exposure Method (CEM) and the Standardized Method (SM) in the capital adequacy framework.
Black: Banking
Blue: Insurance
Green: Buy-side and other
industries
EMEA
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2015 2016 2017 2018
CRD IV/ CRR CCAR /DFA ST
CRDIV B3 (IRB)
Basel 2
Global systemic
risk report
UK FDSF
Stress tests for
foreign banks
Review of
trading book
RBC 2 CROSS
SAM Solvency II
Solvencia II
SII-like P1
ORSA
AIFMD
MIFID II MMF Internal
Ratings/ST
EMIR
Group-
wide ICS4
COREP/
FINREP
ECB CA (AQR/ST)
IFRS 4,9
LCR3
LCR
G-SII BCR Int. Measures
SII Interim
Measures
CCAR /
DFA ST
LCR1
LCR1
Qatar Insurance
Prudential rules
IRDA RBC
BoE/PRA ST
(Top 8 banks)
BoE/PRA ST (Top 8 banks +
Mid sized + SIFIs)
CBRC ST
Adv. Approach Rule
Capital Planning
RBC
LCR
SA-CCR5
G-SII BCR
G-SII BCR
CCAR /DFA ST
G-SIB
Surcharge2
Leverage
Ratio
Leverage
Ratio
Leverage
Ratio
Review of
trading book
Vickers Reform
IFRS 4,9
ORSA
Supplementary
leverage ratio
Review of
trading book
RBC Rules
Higher B3
capital ratios
Basel 3 Capital buffers
G-SII risk mgt
G-SII risk mgt
G-SII risk mgt
LCR1
ORSA
G-SIB
Surcharge2
G-SIB
Surcharge2
LCR3
Capital rules to
large foreign banks
Group-
wide ICS4
Group-
wide ICS4
EIOPA ST
PRA Supervision
Int’l banks
CCAR /
DFA ST
FI/Riksbank ST
SA-CCR5
SA-CCR5
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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19 November 4, 2014
Historically, Rising Rates Have Not Had a Significant Impact on Moody’s Revenue
MCO Revenue & Interest Rates
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Source: Moody’s Investors Service. *10-yr Treasury Yields are represented by the rate at the end-of-period.
5.8%
7.8%
5.6%
6.4%
4.7%
6.5%
3.8%
4.3%
2.3%
3.3%
1.8%
3.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 TTM3Q14
$ M
illio
ns
Revenue: $M (L) 10-yr U.S. Treasury Yield (R)*
+80bps
+200bps
+180bps
+120bps
+100bps +50bps
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20 November 4, 2014
MCO Revenue vs. Rated Issuance*
$1,797
$2,032 $2,281
$2,730 $2,973
$2,193 $2,457
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD 3Q13 YTD 3Q14
Revenue $
Mill
ions
Issuance $
Bill
ions
Global Non-Financial Bonds and US HY Bank Loans (L) Global Financial Bonds (L)Global Structured Finance (L) U.S. Municipal Bonds (L)MCO Revenue (R)
Moody’s Revenue Does Not Directly Tie to Issuance
» In addition to issuance activity levels, Moody’s revenue is impacted by the mix of issuance activity, sales of
non-issuance related products (including by Moody’s Analytics) and pricing
*Rated global investment grade bonds, global high yield bonds, U.S. high yield bank loans, global structured finance, and U.S. municipal issuance.
Source: Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic, AB Alert, CM Alert, Thomson SDC. U.S. High Yield Bank Loans represent Moody’s rated new U.S. bank loan programs.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody's Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
YOY % Change 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
2009-2013
CAGR
YTD 3Q
2014
Issuance -1% -16% 2% 11% 1% -1% 6%
Revenue 2% 13% 12% 20% 9% 13% 12%
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21 November 4, 2014
Steady Moody’s Analytics Revenue Growth Complements Variability of Moody’s Ratings Revenue
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Revenue by Quarter – YoY % Change
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Q1'0
9
Q2'0
9
Q3'0
9
Q4'0
9
Q1'1
0
Q2'1
2
Q3'1
0
Q4'1
0
Q1'1
1
Q2'1
1
Q3'1
1
Q4'1
1
Q1'1
2
Q2'1
2
Q3'1
2
Q4'1
2
Q1'1
3
Q2'1
3
Q3'1
3
Q4'1
3
Q1'1
4
Q2'1
4
Q3'1
4
MIS
MA
MCO
(2%)
3%
16%
1%
6%
19%
15%
5%
1%
![Page 22: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
22 November 4, 2014
Moody’s Investors Service 3
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23 November 4, 2014
3Q14 Revenue: $543.1 million
Moody’s Investors Service Financial Profile
Public,
Project, &
Infrastructure
Finance
16%
Financial
Institutions
17%
Corporate
Finance
48%
Structured
Finance
19%
40%
60%
Transaction Recurring
61%
39%
U.S. Non-U.S.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» 31% recurring revenue
» 42% recurring revenue
» 62% recurring revenue
» 41% recurring revenue
» Global:
» U.S.:
» Non-U.S.:
» Corporate Finance:
» Structured Finance:
» Financial Institutions:
» Public, Project & Infrastructure:
Full-Year 2014 Revenue Guidance as of October 29, 2014
high-single-digit % range
high-single-digit % range
approximately 10%
approximately 10%
high-single-digit % range
mid-single-digit % range
mid-single-digit % range
![Page 24: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24 November 4, 2014
» Over the past several years, an increasing percentage of the U.S. non-financial corporate speculative-grade bank loan
market has been rated
» The rated bank loan market is larger in the U.S. than in Europe, but Europe’s market is growing
FY 2013 rated bank loan issuance in the U.S. totaled $425 billion vs. $81 billion in Europe*
YTD 3Q 2014 rated bank loan issuance in the U.S. was approximately $331 billion vs. $99 billion in Europe*
U.S. Non-Financial Corporate Speculative-Grade Bank Loans*
Rated Bank Loan Issuance Continues to Grow
*Rated bank loan issuance represents Moody’s rated non-financial corporate speculative-grade bank loans.
Sources: Moody’s Investors Service
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD2014
$ B
illio
ns
Rated* Unrated
Unrated – includes term
loan A (retained by the
lender) and revolvers
Rated – includes term loan
B syndicated loans (sold to
investors)
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25 November 4, 2014
Emerging Markets Rated Corporate Bond Issuance*
Emerging Markets Issuance has Grown Substantially, but Will Remain Volatile
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
$ B
illio
ns
*Moving 12 month sum; includes rated investment grade and high yield corporate bond issuance (financial and non-financial).
Sources: Dealogic, Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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26 November 4, 2014
Moody’s Analytics 4
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27 November 4, 2014
Full-Year 2014 Revenue Guidance as of October 29, 2014
» Global:
» U.S.:
» Non-U.S.:
» Research, Data & Analytics:
» Enterprise Risk Solutions:
» Professional Services
Research, Data and Analytics,
54%
Enterprise Risk
Solutions, 30%
Professional Services,
16%
Operating Margin
3Q14 Revenue: $273.0 million
Moody’s Analytics Financial Profile
73%
27%
Transaction Recurring
44%
56%
U.S. Non-U.S.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody's Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» ~100% recurring revenue
» Mid-90s% renewal rates
» Approximately two-thirds recurring
revenue
» Combination of one-off contracts
and semi-recurring revenue
mid-teens % range
low-double-digit % range
high-teens % range
high-single-digit % range
mid-teens % range
approximately 40% 16.8%
19.1%
18.0%
17.8%
17.5%
19.0%
20.5%
0.0% 7.0% 14.0% 21.0%
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
» Expect operating margin to grow to the mid-20’s percent
range over the next several years
![Page 28: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
28 November 4, 2014
RD&A Revenue Has Grown Despite Flat Financial Services Employment
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
$ M
illio
ns
Mill
ion
s o
f jo
bs
U.S. and U.K. Financial Services Employment (L)* TTM RD&A Revenue (R)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.K. Office for National Statistics.
*Reported as of June 30, 2014.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
» Trailing twelve months retention rates have been in the mid-90s percent range for the past 8 quarters
RD&A Revenue
![Page 29: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
29 November 4, 2014
2012
2013
Y
TD
3Q
14
Reported Revenue
Growth
$39.5 million
8.7%
Reported Revenue
Growth
$38.7 million
7.8%
Reported Revenue
Growth
$38.8 million
9.9%
Sales Production by Year
Managing Growth in RD&A
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody's Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
95.5% 109.9%
1.2% 4.7% 8.6%
Retained Base Upgrades Price Increase New Sales Business Base30 Sep 2014
94.7% 107.4%
1.4% 4.9% 6.5%
Retained Base Upgrades Price Increase New Sales Business Base
94.1% 109.2% 4.1% 3.4% 7.5%
Retained Base Upgrades Price Increase New Sales Business Base
![Page 30: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30 November 4, 2014
ERS Revenue by Type ERS Sales by Type
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$ M
illio
ns
Maintenance Subscriptions License and Services
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$ M
illio
ns
Maintenance Subscriptions License and Service
» Recurring Maintenance and Subscriptions revenue represents ~⅔ of total revenue; growing at 3-year
CAGR of 20%
» Non-recurring License and Service revenue drives variability in quarter-to-quarter top-line results
– Revenue recognized as implementation projects are completed
– Sales provide 12-24 months’ visibility into revenue
» Seasonal pattern
– Sales tend to be strongest in 1Q and 4Q, in line with customer budgeting/planning cycles
– Revenue is typically strongest in 4Q, driven by prior year’s sales and customer timelines for year-end
project completion
Renewable Book Growing, But Revenue Dependent on Project Timing
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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31 November 4, 2014
MA is Well-Positioned to Help Banks Manage their Stress Testing Requirements
Stress Testing is Becoming a Fundamental Part of
How Banks are Regulated
Americas
» All banks
>$10 bn in
assets
Europe
» 8 largest
UK banks
» ECB
testing 130
Euro area
banks
» To address regulatory
requirements to perform
enterprise-wide stress tests,
banks are undertaking extensive,
multi-year infrastructure projects
» Banks are also looking for ways to
leverage investments in stress
testing to better manage their
institutions
» MA is integrating existing product and service offerings to facilitate scenario-based stress testing:
– Econometric modeling expertise to develop relevant scenario parameters
– Unique benchmarking data sets to support better analytics across asset classes
– Credit and loss modeling, business forecasting expertise and calculation engines to project cash
flow, profitability, regulatory capital levels
– Auditable, repeatable, automated software platform and regulatory reporting capabilities
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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32 November 4, 2014
Copal Amba is a Market Leader in Analytics and Research Support Services
London
Beijing
Hong Kong
Dubai
New Delhi / Gurgaon
New York
San Jose,
Costa Rica
Bangalore
Colombo, Sri Lanka
Singapore
» Provider of research, analytics and business
intelligence services to global financial institutions
and corporations
» #2 player in the $1bn Third party pure play
Knowledge Process Outsourcing (KPO) market
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Business Development Center Research and Analytics Center
» Equities,
Credit, Quants,
Marketing,
Compliance
Asset management
and private wealth
» Advisory, ECM,
DCM, Global
Markets
Advisory
» Origination,
Underwriting,
Portfolio
Management
Commercial
banking
» Primary
Research,
Business
Research
Corporates and
consulting
» Equities, FICC,
Research
Production,
Quants
Brokerages
![Page 33: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
33 November 4, 2014
Conclusion 5
![Page 34: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
34 November 4, 2014
Why Invest in Moody’s? » We strive to be the world’s most respected authority serving risk-sensitive
financial markets
» We have had strong revenue and earnings growth, as well as strong cash
flow conversion
– 2009 – TTM 3Q14 Revenue CAGR of 13%
– 2009 – TTM 3Q14 Non-GAAP EPS CAGR of 19%
– 2009 – TTM 3Q14 free cash flow conversion rate of 30%
» We are committed to returning capital to our shareholders
– Current annualized dividend of $1.12
– Anticipate total 2014 share repurchases of up to $1.25 billion (subject to available cash,
market conditions and other ongoing capital allocation decisions)*
» We will selectively invest in strategic growth opportunities
– Leverage brand to extend our relevance in financial markets
– Expand our product offerings and geographic influence
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
*Guidance as of October 29, 2014.
![Page 35: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
35 November 4, 2014
Appendix 6
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36 November 4, 2014
Full-Year 2014 Guidance as of October 29, 2014
*Amount is a non-GAAP measure. See Appendix for a reconciliation of this non-GAAP measure to its comparable U.S. GAAP measure.
**See Appendix for reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP Earnings Per Share.
***See Appendix for reconciliation of Cash Flow from Operations to Free Cash Flow.
» Revenue: Low-double-digit % growth range
» Operating Expenses: High-single-digit % growth range
» Operating Margin: 42% to 43%
» Adjusted Operating Margin*: 45% to 46%
» Effective Tax Rate: Approximately 33%
» Non-GAAP Earnings Per
Share**:
$3.95 - $4.05
» Share Repurchases: Up to $1.25 billion (subject to available cash, market conditions
and other ongoing capital allocation decisions)
» Capital Expenditures: Approximately $90 million
» Depreciation & Amortization: Approximately $100 million
» Growth in Compliance &
Regulatory Expenses:
Less than $5 million
» Free Cash Flow***: Approximately $900 million
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
![Page 37: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
37 November 4, 2014
Transaction and Recurring Revenue 3Q14 Revenue by Type
3Q14 Revenue by Geography 3Q14 Revenue by Business
Breadth of Moody’s Businesses and Global Footprint Provide Diversification
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Corporate Finance
32%
Structured Finance
12%
Financial Institutions
11%
Public, Project &
Infrastructure 11%
Research, Data &
Analytics 18%
Enterprise Risk
Solutions 10%
Professional Services
6%
United States 55%
EMEA 28%
Asia-Pacific 10%
Americas 7%
51% 40%
73%
49% 60%
27%
MCO MIS MA
Transaction
Recurring
Moody’s Investors Service
» Transaction revenue recognized when rating published
» Recurring revenue recognized ratably over security life
Moody’s Analytics
» Transaction revenue recognized when service rendered
» Recurring revenue recognized ratably over contract period
![Page 38: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
38 November 4, 2014
Corporate Finance: Revenue and Issuance
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
**Sources: Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic, Barclay's Capital; U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loan Origination represents Moody’s rated new U.S. bank loan programs.
Note: Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Year
Bank Loans Speculative Grade
Investment Grade Other - including monitoring, CP, MTNs
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Quarter
Bank Loans Speculative Grade
Investment Grade Other - including monitoring, CP, MTNs
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Global Rated Non-Financial Bonds and U.S. Speculative Grade Bank Loans (Annually)**
U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loan Origination
Global Non-Financial Speculative-Grade Bond Issuance
Global Non-Financial Investment-Grade Bond Issuance
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Yie
ld (
%)
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Global Rated Non-Financial Bonds and U.S. Speculative Grade Bank Loans (Quarterly)**
U.S. Speculative-Grade Bank Loan Origination
Global Non-Financial Speculative-Grade Bond Issuance
Global Non-Financial Investment-Grade Bond Issuance
Global Investment-Grade Corporate Yield (%)
Global Speculative-Grade Corporate Yield (%)
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39 November 4, 2014
39% 43% 36% 32% 35%
42% 37% 36% 37% 32% 40%
19% 21%
23% 17%
23% 14% 23% 19% 18% 20%
15%
25% 18% 23% 29%
22% 20% 21% 23% 20% 24% 21%
17% 18% 18% 22% 20% 24% 20% 21% 25% 24% 24%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Bank Loans Speculative Grade
Investment Grade Other - including monitoring, CP, MTNs
73% 71% 74% 76% 74% 70% 69% 73% 71% 74% 69%
27% 29% 26% 24% 26% 30% 31% 27% 29% 26% 31%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue* Distribution: Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
Corporate Finance: Revenue Diversification
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
34% 35% 34% 37% 42% 35% 39% 38% 35%
43% 37%
66% 65% 66% 63% 58% 65% 61% 62% 65%
57% 63%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue Distribution by Geography
Non - U.S. U.S.
Revenue by Product
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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40 November 4, 2014
Structured Finance: Revenue and Issuance
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Quarter
ABS RMBS CREF Structured Credit
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
**Sources: AB Alert, CM Alert, Moody’s Corporation.
Notes: ABS includes asset-backed commercial paper and long-term asset-backed securities. RMBS includes covered bonds. CREF includes commercial mortgage-backed securities, real
estate finance, and commercial real estate CDOs. Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Year
ABS RMBS CREF Structured Credit
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Global Rated Structured Finance (Annually)**
ABS RMBS CMBS CDO
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Global Rated Structured Finance (Quarterly)**
ABS RMBS CMBS CDO
![Page 41: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
41 November 4, 2014
Structured Finance: Revenue Diversification
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
**CREF includes commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate finance, and commercial real estate CDOs.
***Residential Mortgage-backed Securities includes covered bonds.
****ABS includes asset-backed commercial paper and long-term asset-backed securities.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
43% 52% 58% 59% 61%
54% 66% 60% 58% 63% 59%
57% 48% 42% 41% 39%
46% 34% 40% 42% 37% 41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue* Distribution: Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
51% 53% 46%
36% 36% 36% 36% 36% 34% 34% 31%
49% 47% 54%
64% 64% 64% 64% 64% 66% 66% 69%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue Distribution by Geography
Non - U.S. U.S.
28% 23% 24% 29% 23% 24% 24% 25% 26% 33% 33%
18% 20%
25% 28%
32% 31% 32% 30% 31% 27% 26%
23% 26% 22%
18% 19% 20% 19% 19% 19% 18% 18%
31% 31% 29% 25% 26% 25% 25% 26% 24% 22% 23%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Asset-backed Securities**** Residential Mortgage-backed Securities***
Commercial Real Estate Finance** Structured Credit
Revenue by Product
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42 November 4, 2014
Financial Institutions: Revenue and Issuance
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Quarter
Banking Insurance Managed Investments
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody's Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Year
Banking Insurance Managed Investments
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Global Rated Financial Bonds (Annually)**
Global Speculative Grade Financial Corporate Bond Issuance
Global Investment Grade Financial Corporate Bond Issuance
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
**Sources: Moody’s Capital Markets Research Group, Dealogic, Barclay’s Capital Note: Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Yie
ld (
%)
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Global Rated Financial Bonds (Quarterly)**
Global Speculative Grade Financial Corporate Bond Issuance
Global Investment Grade Financial Corporate Bond Issuance
Global Banking Yield (%)
Global Insurance Yield (%)
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43 November 4, 2014
Financial Institutions: Revenue Diversification
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
37% 34% 37% 38% 35% 30% 36% 35% 34% 35% 38%
63% 66% 63% 62% 65% 70% 64% 65% 66% 65% 62%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue* Distribution: Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
59% 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% 59% 58% 59% 62% 59%
41% 40% 41% 42% 43% 44% 41% 42% 41% 38% 41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue Distribution by Geography
Non-U.S. U.S.
69% 69% 70% 70% 68% 66% 71% 69% 67% 69% 66%
25% 26% 24% 26% 28% 30% 22% 26% 25% 26% 30%
6% 5% 6% 4% 4% 4% 6% 5% 8% 5% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Banking Insurance Managed Investments
Revenue by Product
![Page 44: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
44 November 4, 2014
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Year
Public FinanceMunicipal Structured ProductsProject & Infrastructure Finance
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
**Sources: Thomson SDC, Moody’s Corporation. Note: Debt issuance categories do not directly correspond to Moody’s revenue categorization.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Long-Term Rated U.S. Municipal Bond Issuance (Quarterly)**
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Issu
an
ce $
Bil
lio
ns
Long-Term Rated U.S. Municipal Bond Issuance (Annually)**
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Quarter
Public FinanceMunicipal Structured ProductsProject & Infrastructure Finance
Public, Project and Infrastructure: Revenue and Issuance
![Page 45: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
45 November 4, 2014
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
59% 58% 61% 61% 63% 58% 57% 60% 53%
63% 58%
41% 42% 39% 39% 37% 42% 43% 40% 47%
37% 42%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue* Distribution: Recurring vs. Transaction
Transaction Recurring
31% 36% 35% 33% 32% 40% 43% 37% 41% 37% 35%
69% 64% 65% 67% 68% 60% 57% 63% 59% 63% 65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue Distribution by Geography
Non - U.S. U.S.
51% 49% 50% 51% 47% 44% 43% 46% 46% 41% 45%
41% 44% 44% 44% 48% 51% 52% 49% 49% 55% 51%
8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Public Finance
Project & Infrastructure Finance
Municipal Structured Products
Revenue by Product
Public, Project and Infrastructure: Revenue Diversification
![Page 46: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
46 November 4, 2014
Moody’s Analytics: Financial Overview
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Quarter
*Historical data has been adjusted to conform with current information. All amounts above exclude intercompany revenue.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Reven
ue
$ M
illi
on
s
Historical Revenue* Mix: By Year
Professional Services
Enterprise Risk Solutions
Research, Data and
Analytics
14% 20% 23% 20% 20% 22% 27% 22% 23% 23% 27%
86% 80% 77% 80% 80% 78% 73% 78% 77% 77% 73%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Transaction Recurring
56% 58% 57% 54% 56% 56% 54% 55% 54% 57% 56%
44% 42% 43% 46% 44% 44% 46% 45% 46% 43% 44%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10 FY11 FY12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 FY13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14
Revenue Distribution by Geography
Non-U.S. U.S.
68% 63% 58% 62% 60% 59% 54% 58% 58% 57% 54%
28% 26% 29% 25% 28% 28% 33% 29% 25% 27% 30%
4% 11% 13% 13% 12% 13% 13% 13% 17% 16% 17%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY10FY11FY121Q132Q133Q134Q13FY131Q142Q143Q14
Revenue by Product
Revenue* Distribution: Recurring vs. Transaction
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47 November 4, 2014
Select Regulations Related to Structured Finance
Dodd-Frank Act
Volcker Rule
(§619)
The Volcker Rule prohibits banking entities from engaging in short-term proprietary trading of certain securities and derivatives
for their own account. The Volcker Rule also imposes limits on banking entities’ investments in, and relationships with, hedge
funds and private equity funds. In mid-January 2014, the five federal agencies adopted an interim final rule which permits the
banking entities to retain interests in certain collateralized debt obligations backed primarily by trust preferred securities that
would otherwise be subject to the Volcker Rule’s covered fund investment prohibitions. On April 7, 2014, the Fed announced its
intention to give banking entities two additional one-year extensions (which together would extend the deadline until July 21,
2017) to conform to the Volcker Rule their ownership interests in and sponsorship of collateral loan obligations (“CLOs”) that fall
under the definition of covered funds. Only CLOs in place as of December 31, 2013 will be eligible for the extensions.
Enhanced Prudential
Standards
(§165)
On February 18, 2014, the Fed approved a final rule strengthening the supervision and regulation of large U.S. bank holding
companies and foreign banking organizations (“FBO”). The final rule establishes a number of enhanced prudential standards,
including liquidity, risk management, and capital. It also requires a FBO with a significant U.S. presence to establish an
intermediate holding company over its U.S. subsidiaries.
On September 3, 2014, the federal banking regulators adopted a final rule on the liquidity coverage ratio which strengthens the
liquidity positions of large financial institutions. Each institution will be required to hold high quality, liquid assets that can be
converted quickly into cash in an amount equal to or greater than its projected cash outflows minus its projected cash inflows
during a 30-day stress period.
On September 9, 2014, the federal banking agencies have issued a joint final rule that revises the denominator of the
supplementary leverage ratio (total leverage exposure). The final rule aligns the agencies' methods of calculation with the
international leverage ratio standards and it applies to banking organizations subject to the advanced approaches risk-based
capital rules.
QM
(§§1411, 1412, 1414)
Effective January 10, 2014, mortgage lenders must comply with the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s Ability-To-Repay and
Qualified Mortgage Rule. The rule also provides a safe harbor for loans that satisfy the definition of a qualified mortgage (“QM”)
and are not “higher-priced," and provides a rebuttable presumption for higher-priced mortgage loans.
QRM
(§941)
Exempts from risk retention requirements asset-backed securities (“ABS”) that are collateralized exclusively by residential
mortgages that qualify as “qualified residential mortgages ” (“QRM”). In a final rule issued on October 22, 2014, six federa l
agencies, including the Federal Reserve Board and the SEC, adopted a definition of QRM that is aligned with the definition of
QM. Qualified Commercial Real Estate Loans (“QCREL”) will also be exempt from risk retention.
Loan-Level
Disclosure
(§942)
Increases disclosure and may reduce issuance volume. The regulation requires an issuer of ABS to disclose, for each tranche or
class of security, certain loan level information regarding the assets backing that security.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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48 November 4, 2014
Select Regulations Related to Structured Finance (continued)
Dodd-Frank Act (continued)
Risk Retention
(§941)
On October 22, 2014, six federal agencies approved a final rule requiring retention of an unhedged and untransferable 5% credit
risk of SF securities, potentially dampening U.S. SF issuance for certain asset classes. The final rule generally permits risk
retention to be accomplished through one or a combination of methods. The final rule also provides additional or modified risk
retention methods for specific types of transactions, including asset-backed commercial paper conduits, commercial mortgage-
backed securities, securitizations sponsored by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, open-market CLOs, and revolving pool
securitizations. Special rules for CMBS (third party holder of first loss piece) if certain criteria are met). The final rule also sets
forth prohibitions on transferring or hedging the credit risk that the sponsor is required to retain. The final rule also does not
require any retention for securitizations of commercial loans, commercial mortgages, or automobile loans if they meet specific
standards for high quality underwriting. The final rule will be effective one year after publication in the Federal Register for
residential mortgage-backed securitizations and two years after publication for all other securitization types.
Reg. AB II Provides new disclosure and reporting requirements for certain ABS. The Reg. AB II Final Rules require issuers of registered
and publicly offered ABS that consist of residential mortgages, commercial mortgages, auto loans and auto leases and
resecuritizations of ABS that include these asset types, or of debt securities, to provide investors with asset-level data, both at
the time of an offering and on an ongoing basis. The Reg. AB II Final Rules also enhance disclosure requirements for initial
ABS offerings and periodic reports, dictate the timing for filing a preliminary prospectus and other transaction documents and
provide new requirements for shelf registrations of ABS .
The definition of ABS, as used in the Reg. AB II Final Rules, is narrower than the definition set forth in the Securities Exchange
Act of 1934 and does not include certain “structured finance products” such as securitizations of managed pools or synthetic
transactions.
FASB/IASB joint financial
instruments accounting
projects
Requires some debt instruments to be marked to fair value. Debt instruments carried at amortized cost or fair value through other
comprehensive income would be subject to more conservative impairment testing, with more timely recognition of credit losses
than under existing rules. The proposals may create a disincentive to hold securitized assets (i.e., if they have to be marked to
fair value and/or subject to more conservative impairment testing), but conversely the proposals may incentivize banks to
securitize more of their loan portfolios.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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49 November 4, 2014
US IG
US HY
US Infrastructure
EMEA IG
EMEA HY
EMEA Infrastructure
US ABS
US CMBS
US Structured Credits
EMEA ABS
EMEA CMBS
EMEA StructuredCredit
3-Year Average and Trailing 12-Month Issuance Versus Recent Historical Peak Issuance
Recent Annual Peak
Market Rated
Issuance (since
2007)
(2011)
(2007)
(2009) (2007)
(2007)
(2007)
(2013)
(2009)
(2013)
(2013)
Source: Moody’s Investors Service.
( ) Year in parenthesis
is the peak issuance
year
(2013)
(2007)
3-Year Average
market Rated
Issuance (’11-’13) as
% of Peak Issuance
Trailing 12-Month
(ended 9/30/2014)
Market Rated
Issuance as % of
Peak Issuance
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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50 November 4, 2014
Anatomy of a Stress Test
Profit and Loss Forecast
Year 1 Year 2 + 1Q
Q’s 1 2 3 4 Q’s 5 6 7 8 & 9 Capital Plan and
Capital Adequacy
Under Stress
» Based on balance sheet
and P&L projections,
banks develop capital
plan
» Regulator reviews
methodology, conducts
independent stress
analysis, evaluates
results
» Memoranda issued to
identify and remediate
deficiencies
Stressed Balance Sheet
» Banks estimate credit losses
and cash flows based on
economic scenarios set by
regulator
» Scenarios and associated loss
projections flow through to
revenues and expenses,
informing financial statement
forecasts over the planning
horizon (9 quarters under
CCAR)
Baseline
Adverse
Severely
Adverse
Bank-
Specific
Baseline
Bank-
Specific
Adverse
C&I Loans
CRE Loans
Mortgage
Loans
Auto Loans
Other Retail
Loans
Deposits
Other
Funding
Economic
Scenarios
Credit Models
(PD, LGD) Projections
Capital Adequacy Results
and Regulatory Reports
Defi
ne
d b
y r
eg
ula
tor
Cali
bra
ted
to
ban
k’s
bu
sin
es
s a
nd
ma
rket
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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51 November 4, 2014
23%
3%
7%
2%
8%
48%
14%
1%
8%
51%
75%
72%
54%
31%
29%
58%
4%
25%
26%
23%
21%
44%
61%
23%
28%
95%
68%
Asia (Excl. Japan)
S. America / C. America / Caribbean
Africa / Middle East
Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Canada
Australia / Oceania
Japan
United States
MA 2013 Sales by Region
Professional Services Enterprise Risk Solutions Research, Data and Analytics
Moody’s Analytics is Relevant to Financial Markets at All Stages of Development
» Moody’s Analytics enables us to increase our presence in emerging markets, selling
products and services before debt capital markets are fully mature
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Emerging Developed
![Page 52: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
52 November 4, 2014
Recurring Revenue Detail
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Recurring Revenue ($ Millions)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
TTM
3Q14
2009 –
TTM 3Q14
CAGR
Corporate Finance $ 147 $ 155 $ 190 $ 226 $ 273 $ 314 17%
Structured Finance $ 181 $ 165 $ 165 $ 159 $ 151 $ 159 -3%
Financial Institutions $ 178 $ 177 $ 194 $ 204 $ 219 $ 230 6%
Public, Project, & Infrastructure
Finance $ 102 $ 111 $ 116 $ 126 $ 137 $ 146 8%
Moody's Investors Service $ 608 $ 607 $ 664 $ 714 $ 781 $ 849 7%
Moody's Analytics $ 522 $ 537 $ 572 $ 652 $ 709 $ 766 8%
Moody's Corporation $ 1,129 $ 1,144 $ 1,236 $ 1,366 $ 1,490 $ 1,615 8%
![Page 53: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
53 November 4, 2014
Moody’s Global Presence
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
*As of September 30, 2014.
**As of September 30, 2013.
*** Moody's has a Technical Services Agreement with Equilibrium, a rating agency that provides credit rating and research services.
U.S. employees
non-U.S. employees
total employees**
U.S. employees
non-U.S. employees
total employees*
3,033 6,704 9,737
2014
2,798 4,412 7,210
2013
![Page 54: Investor Presentation...other forward-looking statements in this presentation are made as of October 29, 2014, and the Company disclaims any duty to supplement, update or revise such](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022042317/5f05cfbf7e708231d414d3ba/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
54 November 4, 2014
in $ millions
Reporting as per 2008 filings 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY08**
Structured Finance 107.2$ 120.1$ 97.7$ 92.2$ 417.2$
Corporate Finance 71.5 97.4 75.0 56.6 300.5
Financial Institutions 64.0 72.1 64.4 56.5 257.0
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance 55.5 66.2 59.7 48.6 230.0
Total Moody's Investors Service* 298.2 355.8 296.8 253.9 1,204.7
Total Moody's Analytics 132.5 131.8 136.6 149.8 550.7
Total Moody's Corporation 430.7$ 487.6$ 433.4$ 403.7$ 1,755.4$
Reclass for 2008 and 2009 Business Change: Managed Investments, Credit Estimates
Structured Finance (4.8)$ (4.5)$ (2.0)$ (1.2)$ (12.5)$
Corporate Finance 1.8 1.6 2.0 1.1 6.5
Financial Institutions 3.0 3.0 - - 6.0
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance - - - - -
Total Moody's Investors Service - - - - -
Total Moody's Analytics - - - - -
Total Moody's Corporation -$ -$ -$ -$ -$
2009 (Current) Business Line Reporting 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FY08
Structured Finance 102.4$ 115.6$ 95.7$ 91.0$ 404.7$
Corporate Finance 73.3 99.0 77.0 57.7 307.0
Financial Institutions 67.0 75.1 64.4 56.5 263.0
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance 55.5 66.2 59.7 48.6 230.0
Total Moody's Investors Service* 298.2 355.9 296.8 253.8 1,204.7
Total Moody's Analytics 132.5 131.8 136.6 149.8 550.7
Total Moody's Corporation 430.7$ 487.7$ 433.4$ 403.6$ 1,755.4$
* Excludes intersegment royalty
** FY08 "Reporting as per 2008 filings" represents cumulative total of 10Q filings
2008 Revenue MIS Business Line Reclassification
In August 2008, the global managed investments ratings group which was previously part of Structured Finance, was moved to the Financial Institutions business. In 2009, credit
estimates was moved to Corporate Finance.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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55 November 4, 2014
2009 Moody’s Analytics Revenue Reclassification
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
in $ millions
Reporting as per filings in year 2008 2009
Subscriptions $ 475.9 n/a
Software 49.2 n/a
Professional Services 25.6 n/a
Total Moody's Analytics $ 550.7 n/a
Reclass for 2009 Realignment*:
Subscriptions $ (57.2) n/a
Software 59.6 n/a
Professional Services (2.4) n/a
Total Moody's Analytics $ - n/a
2009 (Current) Reporting 2008 2009
Research, Data and Analytics $ 418.7 $ 413.6
Enterprise Risk Solutions 108.8 145.1
Professional Services 23.2 20.8
Total Moody's Analytics $ 550.7 $ 579.5
*During the fourth quarter of 2009 the Moody's Analytics ("MA") groupings were realigned and renamed to reflect the
reporting unit structure for the MA segment at December 31, 2009. Pursuant to this realignment the Subscriptions
grouping was renamed Research, Data and Analytics and the Software grouping was renamed Risk Management
Software. The revised groupings classify certain subscription-based risk management software revenue and
advisory services relating to software sales to the redefined Risk Management Software grouping. Risk
Management Software was renamed Enterprise Risk Solutions during the first quarter of 2012.
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56 November 4, 2014
Adjusted Operating Income and Adjusted Operating Margin Reconciliation
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures to GAAP
Moody's Corporation Operating Margin Guidance Reconciliation
*Guidance as of October 29, 2014.
(in $ millions) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
As Reported Operating Income $687.5 $772.8 $888.4 $1,077.4 $1,234.6
Operating Margin 38.3% 38.0% 39.0% 39.5% 41.5%
Add Adjustment:
Depreciation & Amortization $64.1 $66.3 $79.2 $93.5 $93.4
Restructuring 17.5 0.1
-
- -
Goodwill Impairment Charge
-
-
- 12.2 -
Adjusted Operating Income $769.1 $839.2 $967.6 $1,183.1 $1,328.0
Adjusted Operating Margin 42.8% 41.3% 42.4% 43.3% 44.7%
2014F*
Projected Operating Margin -
GAAP 42% to 43%
Projected impact from Depreciation
& Amortization Approximately 3%
Projected Adjusted Operating
Margin 45% to 46%
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
Moody's Corporation Non-GAAP EPS Guidance Reconciliation
2014F*
Diluted EPS guidance - GAAP $4.34 – 4.44
ICRA Gain (0.36)
Legacy Tax (0.03)
Diluted EPS guidance – Non-GAAP $3.95 – 4.05
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57 November 4, 2014
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures to GAAP (cont.)
Moody's Corporation Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
(in $ millions) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F*
Cash Flow from Operations $ 643.8 $ 653.3 $ 803.3 $ 823.1 $ 926.8 $ ~990.0
Less Adjustment:
Capital Expenditures $ 90.7 $ 79.0 $ 67.7 $ 45.0 $ 42.3 $ ~90.0
Free Cash Flow $ 553.1 $ 574.3 $ 735.6 $ 778.1 $ 884.5 $ ~900.0
Cash Flow used in Investing Activities $ (93.8) $ (228.8) $ (267.6) $ (50.2) $ (261.9)
Cash Flow provided by (used in) Financing Activities $ (348.8) $ (241.3) $ (417.7) $ 202.6 $ (498.8)
*Guidance as of October 29, 2014.
Introduction | Financial Overview | Moody’s Market Overview | Moody’s Investors Service | Moody’s Analytics | Conclusion | Appendix
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59 November 4, 2014
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