investment research… · overall progress of project is as per schedule with the total expenditure...
TRANSCRIPT
Price ` 143
Fair Value 180
Upside 26%
Div Yield 1.40%
Tenure 1 Year Well timed capex to bridge structural demand supply gap
Sensex 37665.80
Nifty 11389.45
Group/Index A / S&P
BSE 500
M.cap (` in cr) 5943
Equity (` In cr) 416.21
52 wk H/L ` 209.45/117.15
Face Value ` 10.00
NSE code CHAMBLFERT
BSE code 500085
RONW 19%
P/E 12.00
P/BV 2.3
EV/EBIDTA 12.94
IN `
EV (`in cr) 12356.68
BV (`in cr) 61.83
NW(`in cr) 2573.58
Adj.EPS 11.90
FY 19Est. Earnings 553.86
Equity Share Capital 416.21
10.00
41.62
EPS(FY19Est.) 13.31
Estimated P/E Ratio 14
Estimated Price/share 180
Year End 201803 201703 201603 201503
Tax Rate % 33.08 34.07 52.13 39.13
Rece. days 151.00 185.00 152.00 118.00
Div. Pay. % 16.80 23.01 43.74 28.10
Source: Google
BUY Investment Rationale
Corporate Governance Transparency Ratio's
Share Holding Pattern
Dated : 07 th Aug. 2018
INVESTMENT RESEARCH
FUNDAMENTAL COVERAGE - CHAMBAL FERTILISERS & CHEMICALS LTD
Key Valuation Ratios
With no new capacity addition during the last 2 decades , India is now a urea deficit market where itproduces 24 Mn MT against demand of 32 Mn MT. With a view to bridge this gap & government’sfavorable New Investment Policy, Chambal is setting up a 1.34 MMTPA Brownfieldammonia‐urea plant at Gadepan, Rajasthan at a capex of USD 917 Mn of which USD 711 Mnwill be funded through debt, is expected to commission by January 2019. With this expansion,existing capacity of Urea will increase from 2.01 MMTPA to 3.35 MMTPA, further strengtheningChambal’s leadership position in the industry.
Stock Details
VALUATION (` In Cr except per share)
FV
No. of Equity Shares
Largest private urea manufacturer with robust distribution network and has planned a
well timed capex to bridge structural demand supply gap in the industry.
Overall progress of project is as per schedule with the total expenditure on new Urea Project tillJune 30, 2018 is ` 4469.26 Crore
Chambal has entered into long term agreement with GAIL w.e.f. April 1, 2018 for supply of24,955 bn British Thermal Units annually natural gas for Gadepan III unit. The gas can also be used in existing plants Gadepan I & Gadepan II. Rationale of long term tie-up of natural gas is thatthere is acute shortage of gas in the industry.
Key Financial
Gadepan - Ill Project will be governed by the New Investment Policy 2012 of theGovernment of India. In NIP 2012, the base price of gas is taken as USO 6.5 per MMBTU and
for each USO 0.1 per MMBTU change in the delivered price of gas, the floor and ceiling pricefor the purpose of determination of subsidy will change by USO 2 per MT up to the deliveredgas price of USO 14 per MMBTU.
New Investment Policy 2012 will remain effective for eight years after commencement ofproduction which provides assurance of the cash flows for repayment of debt taken forGadepan- 111 Project. During first 1-2 years of operations of Gadepan - Ill Project, theCompany plans to focus on reduction of debt.
59%
41%
Promoter Others
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Government regulations - Augurs well for company
Post implementation of the Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) in 2010 for non-urea fertilizers there has been asignificant price differential between urea and P&K fertilizers which has resulted in farmers showingpreference for urea due to lower price. The total domestic production in FY2018 was around 24.1 MMT, asagainst domestic demand of ~30.3 MMT which resulted in significant dependence on imports to meet theshortfall. Thus, the demand risk for urea remains low.
Fertilizer industry is highly regulated & with an aim to boost investments, GOI has initiated policy steps thatcould structurally improve fertilizer industry’s dynamics with schemes like gas price pooling, DBT, NPS III,Modified NPS III, New Investment Policy, and New Urea policy. The policy aims to reduce the import offertilizers components and make India self-sufficient. Under DBT , government aims to transfer thesubsidy amount directly to manufacturers and importers on the basis of actual sales made by retailers tobeneficiaries. Currently, pilot projects are being conducted and pan-India DBT rollout will take sometime. Post DBT implementation, companies across sector are likely to benefit in terms of better workingcapital cycle. Under Gas Pooling policy, GOI proposed pooling of Domestic Gas with Re-Gasified LNGwhich is imported. This would help provide natural gas at uniform delivered price to all Natural gas gridconnected Urea manufacturing plants. The new gas pooling policy encourages production above cut-offwhich is beneficial for Chambal as it enjoy strong energy efficiency at its plant.
Primary fertilizers sales witnessed a modest growth of around 2% in FY2018, on the back of low systemicinventory maintained by the fertilizer companies in view of pan-India implementation of Direct Benefit
Transfer (DBT) while, Non-urea fertilizer sales volume also grew at a fair rate of 2% during FY2018 driven byhealthy sales of DAP, MOP and complexes .
Recent softening of spot R-LNG prices is expected to partially offset the higher domestic price in H1FY2019 as well as crude oil linked long-term R-LNG prices, which have seen significant upward movementin recent months. Subdued pooled gas prices will enable indigenous urea production to remaincompetitive against imported urea , low gas prices result in lower subsidy for urea players which inturn, leads to lower working capital borrowings and associated interest costs. However, with pan-Indiaimplementation of Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) the working capital cycle of the industry may witnessmarginal elongation owing to shifting of subsidy payment from point of dispatch to point of sale to farmers .
CCEA has approved an increase in the nutrient-based subsidy (NBS) rates for phosphate and sulphur forfinancial year 2018-19 . The subsidy for phosphate (P) has been increased to ` 15.216/kg from `
11.997/kg (27% increase) while the rate for sulphur (S) has been raised by 22% to `2.722/kg from
2.240/kg. The subsidy for Potash (K) has been reduced by 10% to ` 11.124/kg from ` 12.395/kg. With
the revision in NBS rates the subsidy for Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) will rise by nearly 16% whilefor various grades of complex fertilizers the increase in subsidy will be 4%-10% y-o-y.
Demand for fertilizers in H1 FY2019 is expected to remain stable given the outlook for normal monsoonduring the kharif season and expected higher farm realization for crops supported by assurance by theGovernment of India for MSP at 150% of the cost incurred by farmers. In the union budget of FY2018-19,GoI had increased the subsidy allocation for P&K fertilizers to ` 250 billion from ` 222 billion in FY2017-
18; the increased allocation should enable the government to meet the increased subsidy outgo for theP&K fertilizers (estimated at ` 230 billion for FY2018-19). The revision in NBS rates is largely neutral for
the fertilizer industry unless monsoon acts as a disappointment in the upcoming kharif season leading todiminution of demand and impacting profitability of the industry
RUDRA SHARES &
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Favorable demand-supply scenario of urea in India due to price differential with non-urea fertilizers - Fertilizers sales witnessed growth of around 2% in FY2018
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Key Concerns
An Eye on the Quarterly numbers:-
Graphical presentation Q1 FY 19 & FY 2018 Results:
` in crores
Consolidated Results
Q1 FY 19 Q4 FY 18 Q1 FY 18
2190.36 1056.92 1966.29 107.24% 11.40% 7541.02 7553.45 -0.16%
285.06 118.44 261.72 140.68% 8.92% 977.23 915.88 6.70%
13.01% 11.21% 13.31% - - 12.96% 12.13% -
228.09 73.31 199.92 211.13% 14.09% 736.66 569.73 29.30%
10.41% 6.94% 10.17% - - 9.77% 7.54% 29.51%
155.38 48.02 135.29 223.57% 14.85% 491.73 380.11 29.37%
7.09% 4.54% 6.88% - - 6.52% 5.03% 29.58%
3.73 1.15 3.25 224.35% 14.77% 11.90 9.15 30.05%
Company’s revenue for Q1FY19 came in at ` 2190.36cr, up 11.4% yoy.The adjusted net profit after tax
(excluding discontinued operations) stood at ` 155.38cr, up 14.9% yoy.Gross profit margin increased
significantly by 525bps yoy to 38.1% in Q1FY19 on account of likely higher levels of change in finishedgoods inventory and improvement in overall realizations.
% change
Y-0-Y
Heavily dependent on Government policiesfertilizer business of Chambal is heavily dependent on Government policies for it success. For instance, underNUP 2015, government has reduced energy consumption norms in comparison to NPS III. This meansefficiency of Urea units consuming more energy have to be revamped up, which requires huge capital.
Government have not provided any window for capital requirement for such revamp. Any such negative movefrom government may negatively impact the profitability of the Company.
Delay in subsidy receipts impact profitability and cash flowsSubsidy from Government is a major component of revenue of the Company. The delay in payment of subsidyby the Government of India creates stress on the working capital and increases the finance cost of theCompany. Total subsidy outstanding for Chambal during FY18 is ` 23.6 bn (including ` 14.6 bn from
Urea) vis-a-vis ` 26.3 bn in FY17
Low international urea prices could impact profitability; favorable policy measures by DoF regardingproduction beyond the RAC to largely protect profitabilityInternational urea prices have remained subdued in the past one year owing to oversupply situation in theglobal markets. While CFCL’s production has remained competitive against urea imports due to high energyefficiency, recent policy measures by GoI to increase the IPP linked realization for production beyond RAC andautonomy given to DoF to take decision in case of any material decline in international urea prices are positivefor the industry.
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EBITDA %
PAT %
EPS
% change
Y-0-YFY 17
Revenue
PBT
EBITDA
RUDRA SHARES &
STOCK BROKERS LTD.
Results Snapshot
PAT
PBT%
% change
Q-0-Q
Standalone Results
Particulars FY18
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Largest private urea manufacturer with robust distribution network and has planned a well timed capexbridge structural demand supply gap in the industry. Post FY19, it is well placed to reap the benefits ofreforms such as DBT of fertilizer subsidy and possible steps towards removing price regulations onurea in the long term. Its earnings and margins profile is also likely to improve substantially.
RUDRA SHARES &
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Company Overview
Recent favorable changes in policies, expected commissioning of new capacity in Jan 2019, increasedfocus on agriculture and food production , business reorganization coupled with better than averagemonsoon is one of the reasons to boost demand of urea would enabled Chambal to focus on its corebusiness of urea manufacturing and trading in complex fertilizers, where it is planning an aggressiveexpansion.
Valuation Conclusion
Estimating the share price of the company as per P/E valuationP/E of FY19E at 14x , EPS(Est.) at ` 13.31, the estimated share price for next 1 year tenure turns around
to be ` 180. We recommend to BUY this script.
The implementation of NBS Policy by the Government of India few years back has opened newbusiness avenues and company has grabbed this opportunity with rapid expansion of its DAP and MOPbusiness. The Company has utilized its marketing and brand strength to increase the business volumesin the existing territory and to expand its reach to the new territories. The Company has establisheditself as a significant player in this segment and it gave a major boost to the revenue and profitabilityof the Company.
Chambal Fertilizers and Chemicals Limited is one of the largest private sector fertilizer producers in India. It waspromoted by Zuari Industries Limited in the year 1985. Its two hi-tech nitrogenous fertilizer (urea) plants arelocated at Gadepan in Kota district of Rajasthan. The two plants produce about 2 million MT of Urea perannum.The company is also in process of setting up a third Urea plant at Gadepan with an annual capacity of 1.34
million MT of Urea per annum which is expected to be completed by January 2019. Once commissioned, Gadepanwill be a unique and only site in the country with single largest production at one place.
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LTM 201806 201803 201712 201709
7685.20 2190.37 1056.93 2330.10 2107.80
955.10 285.08 119.97 279.13 270.96
61.10 16.09 8.76 18.28 17.96
894.00 268.99 111.21 260.85 253.00
136.20 55.74 45.11 -17.22 52.55
147.10 40.90 36.38 31.46 38.34
747.00 228.09 74.84 229.40 214.66
251.70 72.71 25.28 80.31 73.41
495.30 155.38 49.55 149.09 141.25
- - - - -
495.30 155.38 49.55 149.09 141.25
11.90 3.73 1.19 3.58 3.39
11.90 3.70 1.20 3.60 3.40
Particulars 201503 201603 201703 201803 2019E 2020E 2021E
Sales 9723.66 9007.95 7553.45 7541.02 7808.46 8452.62 9523.92
Other operating Income 14.09 - - - - - -
Total Inc. from operations 9737.75 9007.95 7553.45 7541.02 7808.46 8452.62 9523.92
Operating EBITA 517.34 455.86 658.72 711.12 750.22 830.16 964.26
Total Inc. from operations 9737.75 9007.95 7553.45 7541.02 7808.46 8452.62 9523.92
TOTAL EXPENDITURE 9003.92 8440.84 6802.53 6744.51 6970.61 7527.91 8457.24
EBITDA 733.83 567.11 750.92 796.51 837.85 924.72 1066.68
Depreciation (216.49) (111.25) (92.20) (85.39) (87.63) (94.56) (102.42)
Goodwill amortization - - - - - - -
OTHER INCOME 105.08 117.82 139.72 184.41 219.23 257.45 276.18
Net financials
Interest income - - - - - - -
Interest expenses (163.18) (265.86) (253.95) (155.19) (142.80) (141.50) (143.81)
Net Financial Items (163.18) (265.86) (253.95) (155.19) (142.80) (141.50) (143.81)
Reported Pre-tax profit 459.24 307.82 544.49 740.34 826.65 946.11 1096.63
Reported Tax charge (179.72) (160.46) (185.52) (244.93) (272.80) (312.22) (361.89)
Reported Net profit 279.52 147.36 358.97 495.41 553.86 633.90 734.74
Minorities (15.09) - - - - - -
P/L OF ASSOCIATE CO. - - - - - - -
294.61 147.36 358.97 495.41 553.86 633.90 734.74
Extra Ordinary income - (42.97) (2.76) - - - -
Dividend Paid (82.79) (83.24) (83.24) (83.24) (83.36) (83.04) (83.39)
Retained earnings 211.82 107.09 278.49 412.17 470.50 550.86 651.35
Reported EPS 7.12 4.57 8.69 11.90 13.31 15.23 17.65
Adjusted Basic EPS 7.08 4.57 8.69 11.90 13.31 15.23 17.65DPS - originally declared 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Opening Balance 413.96 413.96 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21
Iss. during the Period - 2.25 - - - - -
Closing Balance 413.96 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21
FV 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
Wtd. Avg. no. of shares 41.40 41.62 41.62 41.62 41.62 41.62 41.62
Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.
Adj. EPS
Extraord. Items
Rep Net Inc
EPS
Income Statement and Estimates ( ` in Cr except per share)
Particulars
Net Sales
EBITDA
Depreciation
Op Income
RUDRA SHARES &
STOCK BROKERS LTD.
Quarterly Results (` in cr except per share)
Rep. profit before othrinc.,
fin.cost,tax & excp. Item517.34 455.86 658.72 711.12
Profit & Loss
Misc.Inc (Exp.)
Interest Exp
EBT
Taxes
Net Inc(Reg)
750.22 830.16 964.26
750.22 830.16 964.26
969.45 1087.61 1240.44
Rep. NP after min. Int.
Rep.Net Income after
extra ordinary items294.61 190.33 361.73 495.41 553.86
Profit from ordinary act. Before
Fin.Cost ,TAX & Exp.Items 622.42 573.68 798.44 895.53
Rep. profit before othrinc.,
fin.cost,tax & excp. Item517.34 455.86 658.72 711.12
633.90 734.74
EPS and Dividend
Number Of Shares
Page 5 www.rudrashares.com
201503 201603 201703 201803 2019E 2020E 2021E
Equity & Liabilities
Shareholders' Fund
Share Capital 413.96 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21 416.21
Reserves and Surplus 1837.15 1450.69 1707.33 2089.35 2559.85 3110.71 3762.06
54.77 (76.87) (82.57) (87.36) (87.36) (87.36) (87.36)
Total Shareholders' Fund 2305.88 1790.03 2040.97 2418.20 2888.70 3439.56 4090.91
Non-Current Liabilities
Long-term Borrowings 781.87 1072.87 1431.98 3516.04 3674.75 3986.09 4102.39
Other LT Liabilities 3.41 2.25 4.40 3.04 3.10 3.16 3.23
Deferred Tax Liability 427.70 246.29 183.34 213.14 234.45 257.90 283.69
Long term Provisions 11.71 4.49 5.24 3.73 4.10 4.51 4.96
Total Non-Current Liab. 1224.69 1325.90 1624.96 3735.95 3916.41 4251.66 4394.27
Current Liabilities
Short term Borrowings 3017.82 3920.72 3185.90 2562.99 2444.55 2216.68 2327.51
Trade Payables 354.94 449.33 240.57 319.73 363.09 397.27 457.15
Other current liability 595.67 612.25 937.28 411.81 312.34 333.88 366.67
Short term Provisions 139.30 25.47 27.45 30.87 33.96 37.35 41.09
Total current Liab. 4107.73 5007.77 4391.20 3325.40 3153.94 2985.18 3192.42
Total Equity & Liab. 7638.30 8123.70 8057.14 9479.55 9959.05 10676.44 11677.64
Assets
Non-Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Tangible fixed Assets 2841.19 2384.63 2840.32 5334.43 5754.35 6209.21 6725.85
G/W On Consolidation 226.24 47.23 33.90 34.07 34.07 34.07 34.07
Non-current Investment 30.11 211.08 173.58 207.08 227.79 250.57 275.62
Long term L&A 95.97 1.61 1.24 0.94 1.03 1.14 1.25
Other Non current Ass. 14.30 222.82 137.88 112.39 135.30 143.50 164.00
Deferred tax receiv. - 0.39 0.35 1.29 1.35 1.42 1.49
Total Non-Current Ass. 3207.81 2867.76 3187.27 5690.20 6153.90 6639.91 7202.28
Current Assets
Current Investments - - - - - - -
Inventories 738.71 868.39 849.35 795.10 780.85 760.74 857.15
Trade Receivables 3171.16 3861.20 3036.20 2534.69 2498.71 2692.16 2980.99
Cash & cash Equi. 203.93 54.27 132.14 77.64 134.82 155.58 160.66
Short Term L&A 231.17 0.48 0.32 0.31 0.33 0.34 0.36
Other current Assets 85.50 471.57 851.86 381.60 390.42 427.70 476.20
Total current Assets 4430.47 5255.91 4869.87 3789.34 3805.12 4036.52 4475.36
Total Assets 7638.30 8123.70 8057.14 9479.55 9959.05 10676.44 11677.64
Cash & cash equivalents 203.93 54.27 132.14 77.64 134.82 155.58 160.66
Other int. bearing assets 30.11 211.08 173.58 207.08 227.79 250.57 275.62
Interest-bearing debt 4395.36 5605.84 5555.16 6490.84 6431.64 6536.64 6796.57
Net interest-bearing debt 4161.32 5340.49 5249.44 6206.12 6069.03 6130.49 6360.29
Net gearing (%) 180.47% 298.35% 257.20% 256.64% 210.10% 178.23% 155.47%
Tangible assets
Gross capex (191.41) (639.56) (1032.36) (2579.50) (507.55) (549.42) (619.05)
Sale of fixed assets 6.12 1.03 153.17 - - - -
Net capex (185.29) (638.53) (879.19) (2579.50) (507.55) (549.42) (619.05)
Depreciation tangibles (216.49) (111.25) (92.20) (85.39) (87.63) (94.56) (102.42)
Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.
Minority Interests
Investments
RUDRA SHARES &
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BALANCE SHEET
Particulars
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201503 201603 201703 201803 2019E 2020E 2021E
Return on assets - 2.42% 4.47% 5.65% 5.70% 6.14% 6.57%
Return on equity - 9.29% 18.88% 22.22% 20.87% 20.03% 19.51%
ROCE - 9.91% 13.54% 9.37% 7.28% 7.33% 7.77%
EBIT Margin - 6.37% 10.57% 11.88% 12.42% 12.87% 13.02%
Pre tax margin - 3.42% 7.21% 9.82% 10.59% 11.19% 11.51%
Net Profit Margin - 2.11% 4.79% 6.57% 7.09% 7.50% 7.71%
Total asset turnover - 1.14 0.93 0.86 0.80 0.82 0.85
Fixed asset turnover - 3.45 2.89 1.84 1.41 1.41 1.47
Equity turnover - 4.40 3.94 3.38 2.94 2.67 2.53
Current Ratio - 1.05 1.11 1.14 1.21 1.35 1.40
Quick Ratio - 0.88 0.92 0.90 0.96 1.10 1.13
Cash Ratio - 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.04 0.05 0.05
Receivable Days - 152.05 185.05 150.74 131.78 125.84 122.42
Inventory Days - 34.75 46.08 44.50 41.26 37.37 34.91
Payable Days - 17.13 18.56 15.28 17.91 18.48 18.23
Conversion Cycle (Days) - 169.67 212.57 179.96 155.13 144.73 139.10
Financial Leverage Effect - 2.98 2.08 1.61 1.51 1.46 1.45
Debt to Capital - 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.69 0.66 0.62
Debt to Equity - 3.13 2.72 2.68 2.23 1.90 1.66
Note:- The figures shown in the brackets means NEGATIVE.
RATIO ANALYSIS
Particulars
RUDRA SHARES &
STOCK BROKERS LTD.
Page 7 www.rudrashares.com
Disclosures :
1) Business Activity :
2)
3)
4)
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a) No
b) No
c) No
5)
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a) No
b) No
c) No
6) Other Disclosures:
Yes/No
Sr. No.
a) No
b) No
c) No
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LIMITED, which does not constitute any offer or advice to sell or does solicitation to buy any securities. The information presented in
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