investment market headwinds: strengthening or easing? …7].pdf3 the cbre bond yield projects an...

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PROPERTY PERSPECTIVEGlobalJune 2017

Investment market headwinds: strengthening or easing?

CBRE Research

FOREWORD

GLOBAL ECONOMY

Real estate investment activity has been hampered by headwinds including policy uncertainty and tight financial conditions but some headwinds are expected to ease

GLOBAL REAL ESTATE

A slow start of the year due to a significant drop in the Americas

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08

Investment sales volume fell by 9.4% in Q1 2017 compared to a year earlier. Will this trend continue, or will headwinds start to ease?

EMEA

Investors seeking opportunities for rent growth

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16

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ASIA PACIFIC

Investment outside gateway cities gained more investor interest

AMERICAS

U.S. gateway cities remain the top destination in the Americas

CBRE Research© 2017 CBRE. Inc.

The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets 3June 2017 Foreword

Despite solid and consistent global growth, real estate investors have faced a number of headwinds over the past 18 months, resulting in a modest reduction in real estate transaction volume. Not all of these headwinds are expected to ease over the next six months, but some already have, modestly improving the climate for real estate investing.

Headwind 1: Policy uncertainty around the world The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (Figure 1) reached its highest ever levels in early 2017. The index is created from a blend of newspaper

coverage of policy-related economic uncertainty, tax code provisions set to expire in certain countries and divergence in economic forecasts. The most recent spike reflects the vote by the U.K. to leave the EU and the recent U.S. and European elections, which have featured a strong anti-globalization theme. While the rise in policy uncertainty has not significantly affected economic growth, it chips away at confidence that is the bedrock of capital flows. Though still elevated, the index has begun to fall. Brexit might be problematic, but it looks set to play out slowly. President Trump seems to be pursuing an agenda

that is less radical than the one he espoused on campaign. The European elections, so far, have returned centrist, pro-globalization political parties. The policy agenda is far from clear for the next 12 months, but the reduction in the number of significant elections is helpful for global investors.

Headwind 2: Tighter financial conditions in the United States According to the Chicago Fed’s Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (ANFCI), financial conditions were tighter than average in 2015 and 2016 following a long period of ease

GLOBAL ECONOMY

Uncertainty

chips away at

confidence

Economic headwinds ease

Figure 1: Global Policy Uncertainty Index (higher = more uncertain)

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Source: policyuncertainty.com,

CBRE Research 2017

5


The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets June 2017 Global Economy

(Figure 2). Rising bond rates, a strengthening currency, a hardening of the attitudes of commercial loan officers and prudent actions of the Fed all played a part. Financial conditions always impact the real economy with a lag, so the welcome easing that has taken place recently will take some time to feed through into activity, but it will give a degree of confidence to investors for the rest of 2017.

In addition, we observe that Bloomberg’s United States and Eurozone Financial Conditions Indexes (see Figure 3) are yielding towards their highest point of the

past two years, indicating accommodative financial conditions that should support the investment market. Also, as shown by CBRE’s Ahead of the Curve,1 merger-and-acquisition activity, which correlates with commercial real estate investment, finished Q1 2017 stronger than Q1 2016.

Headwind 3: Real estate pricing Average prime capitalization rates in global real estate are at their lowest since 1990. As of Q1 2017, average global cap rates are 4.3% for office, 3.9% for retail and for 5.3% for industrial &

logistics real estate. While these cap rates are for the very highest grade of real estate—approximately 20% of total global inventory—they are indicative of how attractive real estate is to global investors at the present time, with relatively few sellers. While the prospects for rental growth are improving as global growth picks up, this particular headwind is unlikely to ease in the near term.

Bottom line: CBRE expects another solid year for global real estate capital flows as headwinds moderate, but one which will be slightly down from 2016.

While the prospects for rental growth are improving

as global growth picks up, the pricing headwind is

unlikely to ease in the near term

1 We depict the 100 day moving-average to indicate the long term trend of the Financial Conditions Index.

Source: Chicago Fed,

CBRE Research 2017

Source: Bloomberg,

CBRE Research 2017

Figure 2: Chicago Fed Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index (+ = tight)

Figure 3: Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index

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CBRE Research

7The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets June 2017

© 2017 CBRE. Inc.

Global Economy

Global commercial real estate investment2 activity dropped in Q1 2017, down 9.4% (see figure 4) from a year earlier to U.S.$ 181 billion. While year-over-year Q1 investment volume declined by 16.6% in the Americas and 1.3% in EMEA, Asia Pacific was the bright spot with transaction volume up by 5.8%.

Notwithstanding these observations, activity in Q1 2017 was only considered low in comparison to the levels of the past two years. Q1 global investment volume for the past 10 years has averaged U.S. $ 159 billion—well below Q1 2017’s level, indicating the relative strength of the current

investment market. There are multiple factors that could explain the dip in investment activity, such as the drop in Chinese outbound investment due to tight capital controls. However, we expect a continued globally diversified strategy from Chinese investors in the long term.

GLOBALREALESTATE

Transaction volume down: a slow start of the year

2 Please note that we describe all figures in this paragraph as changes in floating exchange rates.

Figure 4: Global Commercial Real Estate Investment (US$ Billions)

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CBRE Research 2017.

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We expect a continued globally diversified strategy from

Chinese investors in the long term

9


June 2017Global Capital MarketsThe Property Perspective Global Real Estate

Another potential explanation is the rise in bond yields and fall in real estate yields. Since late 2016, the U.S. Federal Reserve has increased the federal funds rate by 0.75% and is targeting further increases this year. Monetary tightening in the U.S. is expected to continue, including central bank balance sheet shrinkage. In light of these developments the spread between bond rates and commercial real estate yields has fallen. CBRE’s global bond yield (Figure 5)3 increased by 66 basis points (bps) since Q3 2016. The global spread remains well above 200 bps, which is a historically high level, but its recent

compression and expectations of further narrowing gap may have deterred investors from bidding aggressively in the marketplace.

If we look at the cap rate spread over bonds on a market by market basis, we see a general tendency for the lower spreads to be in the Americas. This is the region that has seen the most pronounced drop off in investment transactions. Spreads in the Americas have actually eased out a bit in Q1 2017 and this might encourage increased transaction levels in the rest of the year, as the U.S. economy picks up speed.

The activity of cross-border investors as a percentage of total investment increased steadily over the last four quarters and intra-regional investment stood out as especially strong in Q1 2017 (Figure 7). The latter indicates the strength of the global investment market despite the drop in Chinese outbound investment. One explanation is that international investors are now targeting “smaller” non-global-gateway markets, where evidence suggests that good opportunities remain.

Note: All data as of the end

of Q1 2017.

Source: Macrobond,

CBRE Research 2017

Source: Bloomberg,

CBRE Research 2017

Figure 6: Real Estate’s Premium Over Bonds (Spread Between Prime Yield and 10-year Government Bond Yield)

Figure 7: Cross- and Intra-regional investment turnover

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Source: Bloomberg,

CBRE Research 2017

Figure 5: Global Composite bond and office yield

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3 The CBRE bond yield projects an equal weighted country specific 10-year government bond yield for cities that are included in our Composite Global Office Yield Index: Amsterdam, Atlanta, Beijing, Berlin, Boston, Brussels, Chicago, Copenhagen, Dallas, Denver, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Hong Kong, London City & West End, Los Angeles, Madrid, Melbourne, Miami, Milan, Mumbai, Munich, New Delhi, New York, Paris, San Francisco, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore, Sydney, Toronto, Tokyo and Washington, D.C. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Prime office yield (%)

The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets 11June 2017


Global Real Estate

Over the past few years, most investors were primarily focused on gateway cities and had similar investment criteria. This made gateway cities a crowded trade with yields becoming tight. CBRE’s most recent 2017 Investor Intention Survey showed investor preference for major cities such as Sydney, Tokyo and Shanghai is still high, but actual Q1 2017 investment activity indicates that some investors are moving away from gateway cities to locations that are more reasonably priced or offer recovery prospects.

Melbourne and Brisbane gaining more investor interestIn Australia, there was higher investment activity in Melbourne, up 17% year-over-year in Q1, and

in Brisbane, up 51% year-over-year. Investors face less competition for assets in Melbourne than in Sydney and are more confident about the rent growth outlook there, especially in the office sector where strong economic growth is driving white-collar employment. The Melbourne office market achieved net effective rent growth in 2016 after four years of decline thanks to a combination of rising headline rents and a slight easing of incentives. With limited supply in 2017 and healthy demand, net effective rent is expected to grow further.

Investors chose Brisbane for the counter-cyclical opportunities. The economy has overcome the drag of the declining

commodities cycle and returned to growth in 2016. It is expected to improve further in 2017 as construction on liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects restarts. The Brisbane office market is showing signs of bottoming out. New supply will be low in both 2017 and 2018, which will support a gradual fall in vacancy. It is expected that net effective office rents will improve gradually in the coming years. Perth also fits the counter-cyclical investment thesis. The decline in rent has slowed significantly in recent quarters. There has been an increase in transactions related to flight-to-quality activities. The level of investor interest in the Perth office market has increased with demand mainly coming from domestic companies.

ASIAPACIFIC

4 Transactions include deals above US$10 million in office, retail, mixed-use, industrial, hotel and other commercial sectors.

Net effective

rent is

expected to

grow further

Investment outside gateway cities in Asia Pacific

Source: CBRE Research 2017

Figure 8: Australia investment turnover4 by city (US$ Millions)

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The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets June 2017 Asia Pacific

Acquisitions in Japan regional cities remain robustSimilarly in Japan, investors are having difficulty sourcing assets in Tokyo, many of which are tightly held by REITs or domestic conglomerates. Investors are finding more opportunities in regional cities such as Osaka, Nagoya, Fukuoka and cities outside Tokyo. There were several deals concluded in Yokohama in Q1, as owners took profits on selling non-core assets.The relatively positive fundamentals in regional cities will continue to draw investors looking for opportunities outside Tokyo. Tokyo’s Grade A office market will have more new supply in the next two years at a rate that is well above the historical annual average. Grade A office rents are expected to decline in late 2017 in the face of

higher vacancy rates. In contrast, most regional cities will remain tight with limited new supply in the next two years. This will support rent growth for regional cities. The total value of office acquisitions in regional cities increased by 240% year-over-year in Q1 2017.

Potential investment opportunities in select Tier-II marketsChinese Tier-1 markets continue to dominate investment interest and account for nearly 85% of total investment activity in China. Overall, investors are still concerned about the oversupply situation in Tier-2 and Tier-3 markets. Nevertheless, there are some Tier-2 markets such as Wuhan and Chengdu where investors can bargain for discounts. Landlords in these

markets have already adjusted their pricing to reflect the real estate risks. Some vendors are willing to offer rent guarantees to investors. However, investors need to be selective and focus on quality office assets in the CBD area or transit-oriented development properties that will benefit from the expansion of metro network planning in lower-tier markets. On the other hand, the trend of consumption growth in China will continue with rising incomes and the growing middle class. Spending patterns will shift from essentials to experienced-based and F&B retail. Well-managed community shopping malls in maturing residential neighbourhoods will attract investors due to consumption upgrading.

5 Transactions include deals above US$10 million in the office, retail, mixed-use, industrial, hotel and other commercial sectors. Regional cities include all cities outside Tokyo.


Figure 9: Japan investment turnover5 by city (US$ Billions)

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The relatively positive fundamentals in regional cities

will continue to draw investors looking for opportunities

outside of Tokyo

CBRE Research


© 2017 CBRE. Inc.

Asia Pacific

CRE investment volume in Q1 2017 ($96.9 billion) was down by 16.6% from the $116.1 billion recorded in Q1 2016. The U.S. gateway cities (New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington D.C. and Chicago) remain the top destinations in terms of investment volume in Q1. Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York City accounted for 28% of all Q1 2017 purchases.

Investor sentiment (reflected by the metro rankings in the CBRE Americas Investor Intentions Survey 2017) remains strong for gateway cities. However, the secondary markets lead the way in terms of performance. Tacoma (15.5%), Las Vegas (12.3%) and Providence (11.6%) had the highest total returns as measured

by the NCREIF Property Index (NPI) for the year ending Q1 2017.

Overall, the NPI total return continues to moderate as the real estate cycle has matured and capital appreciation has fallen. Total return for the year ending Q1 2017 was 7.3%, underperforming both the S&P 500 and the S&P U.S. REIT Index.

The office sector NCREIF return for the year ending Q1 2017 was 5.7% (appreciation 1.2%, income 4.5%)—the lowest annual return since the 4.6% posted in Q3 2010. Dallas was the only metro to post double-digit returns of 10.9%. Other top-performing metros were Charlotte, Oakland and Los Angeles.

Industrial was the only CRE sector to have double-digit annual total returns in Q1 (12.2%) and outperformed the overall NCREIF index. Much of this was capital appreciation (6.7%), with income returns at 5.2%. The top-10 industrial markets posted total returns of close to 12% or more this quarter. Orlando had total returns of 22%.

Retail’s total return for the year ending Q1 2017 was 7.6%. Most of this was accounted for by income growth (4.8%). Houston was the only market that saw double-digit returns for the year ending Q1 2017, driven by capital appreciation (5.6%). Los Angeles was the only other market to record capital appreciation (5.2%) in excess of income

AMERICAS

The NPI

total return

continues to

moderate

Gateway cities remain top destination

Top Five Markets Overall Office Industrial Retail Apartment

Investment Volume (Q1 2017)(1)

•New York •Los Angeles •San Francisco •Washington D.C.•Dallas

•New York •Los Angeles •Boston•San Francisco •Washington D.C

•New York •Los Angeles•Washington D.C. •San Francisco•Dallas

•New York •San Francisco •Los Angeles •Chicago•San Diego

•New York •Los Angeles •Dallas •Washington D.C.•San Francisco

Property Performance (Total returns, year ending Q1 2017)(2)

•Tacoma •Las Vegas •Providence•Portland•Riverside

•Dallas•Charlotte•Oakland •Los Angeles •Austin

•Orlando•San Jose•Oakland •Seattle •San Francisco

•Houston •Los Angeles •Dallas •Seattle •Miami

•Riverside •Charlotte •Oakland•Portland •Orange County

Net Absorption (Q1 2017)(3)

•NA •New Jersey•Seattle•Phoenix•Orange County •Philadelphia

•Atlanta •Dallas/Ft. Worth•Inland Empire •Houston •Cincinnati

•Detroit•Dallas •Baltimore •Philadelphia•Denver

•New York •San Francisco •Washington D.C.•Phoenix•Seattle

Source: (1) Real Capital Analytics,

(2) NCREIF, (3) CBRE Research,

CBRE Econometric Advisors, 2017

Figure 10: Top Five Markets by Sector

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The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets June 2017 Americas

growth (4.6%). Dallas, Seattle, Miami and Atlanta were all top-performing markets with income returns ranging from 4% to 5% for the year.

When trying to identify the top-performing markets going forward, forecasts for metrics such as population growth and office-using jobs growth seem to have better predictive power than others. These measure where people want to live and work.

Figure 11 plots U.S. metros on

population growth forecast (x-axis) versus office-using jobs forecast (y-axis) for 2017-2018. Austin, Orlando, Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas/ Fort Worth, Raleigh and Tampa all emerge as high-growth markets. Dallas/ Fort Worth and Atlanta are also ranked 2nd and 5th in CBRE’s 2017 Americas Investor Intentions Survey, reflecting the strength of investor sentiment in these cities. Common denominators among these high-growth metropolitan economies include growing (in some cases, burgeoning)

technology sectors, healthcare and financial services industries. Orlando and Tampa were the fastest-growing job markets in Q1 2017.

The gateway markets—a favorite of investors, particularly overseas capital—are on the low end of the growth spectrum primarily because of the existing high base of jobs and people. However, they provide the certainty of tried-and-tested markets with the additional benefit of greater liquidity.

The top three U.S. markets—New York, San Francisco and

Los Angeles—represented almost 30% of the total investment

turnover in Q1 2016

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Figure 11: Forecast Average Annual Employment and Population Growth, 2017 & 2018

Population growth and office-using jobs growth seems to

have better predictive powers than other metrics


© 2017 CBRE. Inc. CBRE Research

Americas

Despite an eventful start to the year with elections in major European countries, investment volume in EMEA held up well in Q1 2017 although it declined by 1.3% compared with Q1 2016. While investment volume remains in line with 2016, there are some distinct changes in investor behavior in EMEA.

There is a clear shift in focus away from capital gains through yield compression and towards stable income-growth strategies. In part, this is the result of muted expectations of further capital gains in the prime segment after years of strong yield compression. This is particularly evident for

opportunistic investors who are either seeking to exit the prime segment now they have met their target returns, or are looking into alternative asset classes. However, another part of the story is that certain markets in Europe are recording aggressive rent growth after years of limited rent increases. Despite the upturn in occupier markets, the development pipeline is generally still limited, which fuels expectations for more rent growth to come.

Investors are looking at new asset classes to achieve returns. One of the most prominent examples of an asset class that is moving into

the mainstream is light industrial (or “multi-let”) and the €1.28 billion acquisition of a light-industrial portfolio by Blackstone and M7 Real Estate illustrates that this market is now opening up to investors trying to build scale. While the light-industrial market is traditionally characterized by fragmented ownership and occupiers from small- and medium-sized enterprises, the growing importance of e-commerce and last-mile deliveries is supporting occupier and investor interest. These assets are typically located in or around major cities and are considered a hedge against traditional retail by some

EMEA

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Investors seek opportunities for rent growth

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Figure 12: Prime office rental growth, Q1 2017 compared with Q1 2016 (LCU)

Rental growth y/y

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The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets June 2017 EMEA

investors, particularly during times of structural change reshaping retail in many markets nowadays.

Investors in EMEA also are cautiously moving up the risk curve in terms of geographies. The reason for this is twofold: Strong competition in gateway markets is forcing investors to broaden their horizon, and a more broad-based economic upturn and dropping vacancy rates are allowing investors to look at new markets without materially altering their investment requirements. In the major capital cities in Europe, new submarkets come into play and strong regional centers also draw investor interest.

All in all, this means that a wider range of assets and locations can count on investor demand. However, regarding overall investment volume, Europe’s major capital cities are expected to remain a driving force behind trading activity. Over the past 10 years, the top-10 most liquid city markets in Europe (as measured by investment activity) accounted for almost 40% of total real estate investments in the region.

Over the past three years, the five most liquid markets in Europe (by investment activity) were

London, Paris, Berlin, Madrid and Munich. London and Paris have been uncontested as main gateway cities in terms of investment activity and offer a vibrant mix of office, retail, residential and light-industrial assets. Berlin, Madrid and Munich have seen a sharp upturn in trading activity in recent years. Germany has proved relatively stable in times of economic turmoil. While its rents took a hit from the financial crisis, Madrid is the capital city of one of the fastest-growing economies in the Eurozone and investors are anticipating positive rent growth as a result of solid occupier market performance (see Figure 12).

Other markets that have seen a rise in investment market activity are Milan, Amsterdam, Dublin, the capital cities in the Nordics (Copenhagen, Helsinki, Oslo and Stockholm) and other large German cities such as Frankfurt, Hamburg and Düsseldorf. While smaller than the traditional gateway markets, these cities have a similar functional mix and attract a wide range of international office occupiers, retailers and tourists.One common feature is that these cities have generally seen limited rent growth coming out of the financial crisis and

construction activity did not catch up with rapidly improving market fundamentals. Over the past 18 months, vacancy has been absorbed by growing leasing activity and transformations of obsolete buildings into alternative functions.

In Europe, rent growth is most significant for office property. To a lesser extent, rents for industrial property are also rising—particularly in supply-constrained areas. As for residential, both vacant possession values and rent values have risen sharply as demographic pressures in the major cities are mounting. A structural shortage of housing makes residential particularly attractive to developers. However, competition for land and the relative attractiveness of residential projects are at the expense of development potential in the other sectors. The limited development pipeline is now resulting in rapid rent growth, and investors are looking to capitalize on prospects for further rent growth on the back of improving occupier markets.further rent growth on the back of improving occupier markets.

Investors in EMEA also are cautiously moving up

the risk curve in terms of geographies

CBRE Research


© 2017 CBRE. Inc.

EMEA

Global Research Leadership

Nick Axford, Ph.D.Head of Research, Global+44 207 182 [email protected]@NickAxford1

Richard Barkham, Ph.D.Chief Economist, Global+44 207 182 [email protected]

Neil Blake, Ph.D.Head of Forecasting and Analytics, Global+44 207 182 [email protected]@NeilBlake123

Henry Chin, Ph.D.Head of Research, Asia Pacific+852 2820 [email protected]@HenryChinPhD

Spencer LevyHead of Research, Americas+1 617 912 [email protected]@SpencerGLevy

Jos TrompHead of Research, EMEA+31 20 626 26 [email protected]

Global Capital Markets Research

Dennis Schoenmaker, Ph.D.Economist, Global+44 207 182 [email protected]

Leo ChungAssociate Director, Asia Pacific+852 8280 [email protected]

Robert FongDirector, Asia Pacific Research+852 2820 2882 [email protected]

Revathi GreenwoodHead of Investment Research, Americas+1 202 585 5662 [email protected]

Raphaël RietemaCapital Markets, EMEA Research+31 20 204 4325 [email protected]

CONTACTS

To learn more about CBRE Research, or to access additional research reports, please visit the Global Research Gateway at www.cbre.com/researchgateway.

CBRE Disclaimer 2017Information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to confirm independently its accuracy and completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

The Property Perspective Global Capital Markets June 2017

© 2017 CBRE. Inc.

http://www.cbre.com/researchgateway

investment market headwinds: strengthening or easing? …7].pdf3 the cbre bond yield projects an...

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