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Page 1: INVESTING IN TURBULENT TIMES 21 MAY 2019 · 2020-03-05 · Legacy TV Distributor e.g. AT&T, Comcast, Charter Linear TV bundle Legacy Distribution Model CONSUMER Linear ... CONSUMER

INVESTING IN TURBULENT TIMES21 MAY 2019

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2

Agenda

2

Breakfast 08h30 - 09h00

Presentations 09h00

Introduction Charles van der Merwe

Market Update Deon Gouws

Credo Investment Solutions Overview Damian Yeomans

Global Equity Fund Jarrod Cahn

Dynamic Fund Ben Newton

Credo Wealth Platform Overview Richard Pinder

Events Concludes 10h30

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3

Agenda

3

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INTRODUCTION CHARLES VAN DER MERWE

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5

About Credo

▪ Credo is a Wealth Management services business founded in the UK in 1998

▪ Majority shareholders are the senior management team

▪ Employ over 90 people with offices in the UK (London) and South Africa (Johannesburg and Cape Town)

▪ Assets under Custody of £3.2 billion representing over 6,500 investors

▪ Operate 2 distinct business units with the following target markets:

▪ Discretionary Assets under Management in excess of £1 billion:

• provide access to Managed Portfolio Service and Credo Funds

• both Financial Intermediary & Private Client market segments

Financial Intermediaries

20+ Financial Intermediaries, with Assets under Custody of £1.6bn,

representing over 4,500 Investors

Private Clients

Assets under Management of £1.6bn, representing

over 2,000 Investors

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MARKET UPDATE DEON GOUWS

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Deon Gouws - CIO Credo Wealth - May 2019

A glass half full?

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Why be an optimist?

Source: R Shiller, Credo

8

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FTSE 100 Index: Sep-Dec 2018

9

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FTSE 100 Index: 2 January 2019

10

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2 January 2019: Evening Standard

11

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2 January 2019: Evening Standard

12

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FTSE 100 Index: 2 January 2019

13

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FTSE 100 Index

15

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FTSE 100 Index

16

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S&P 500 Performance: first 4 months of calendar year (since 1928)

Source: Charlie Bilello

17

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Source: FactSet, NBER, Robert Shiller, JPMAM (data to 31/12/2018)

S&P Composite Index

18

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S&P earnings scorecard – Q4, 2018 (as of 30 April 2019)

19

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Source: Credo, Bloomberg

International yield curves (2/5/2019)

20

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Global GDP growth rates (real)

Source: Charlie Bilello (3 May 2019)

21

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Trade war?

22

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China Manufacturing PMI - Trade Orders (export/import average)

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China,

Topdown Charts, Datastream

24

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Brexit?

25

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1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Source: OECD, Thomson Reuters, Credo

Pound: undervalued?

OECD GBP/USD (PPP)

GBP/USD

>10%

26

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We remain optimistic about the long term…

27

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28

We remain optimistic about the long term…

“Optimistic people play a disproportionate role in shaping our lives.

Their decisions make a difference;

They are inventors, entrepreneurs, political and military leaders – not average people.

They got to where they are by seeking challenges and taking risks.”

Daniel Kahneman

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Thank you

@DeonGouws_Credo29

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CREDO INVESTMENTSOLUTIONS OVERVIEW DAMIAN YEOMANS

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Investment Solutions: Overview

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32

Platform availability

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33

Credo Funds - Press coverage

33

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34

Credo Funds - Press coverage

34

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Credo Funds - Summary

▪ Platform access to Credo Funds growing rapidly

▪ Stability of fund management team and senior staff

▪ Funds already rated by Defaqto

▪ Credo Global Equity now over £55m AUM

▪ Increasing visibility and information

▪ Strong performance

35

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Credo Funds - Website

www.credogroup.com/credofunds/cgefucits.html

36

www.credogroup.com/credofunds/dynamic.html

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GLOBAL EQUITY FUND JARROD CAHN

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▪ We believe wealth is created and preserved by following a patient and disciplined investment strategy

that is focused on the long-term

▪ We follow a value-based approach to investing

▪ We aim to identify matters of strategic importance and focus on methodologies that have proven to be

robust through a variety of market cycles, rather than fixating on short-term news-flow and forecasts

▪ We strive to minimise turnover in our portfolios and apply our minds when considering transaction size

in an attempt to limit transaction costs

▪ We view risk as permanent losses of capital and not in terms of short-term volatility

Credo Investment Philosophy

38

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Value Investing

39

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Value vs Growth

40

Source: Bloomberg data from 30/06/2017 to 30/04/2019

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S&P 500 Returns vs. FANG Stocks

41

Source: Bloomberg data from 30/06/2017 to 30/04/2019

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Long-only equities

Global exposure

Large capitalisation

Value bias

High liquidity

No derivatives, gearing or hedging

42

The Fund

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43

Fund Investment Process

Investable

Universe

▪ ~ 5000

companies

▪ Focus on

Developed

Markets

▪ >$1bn Market

Capitalisation

▪ Sufficient

Liquidity

~ $5m/day

Fundamental

Bottom-Up Analysis

▪ Temporarily mis-priced stocks

▪ Attractive Valuationo Absolute, relative to peers /

benchmark or history

▪ High Qualityo Based on profitability, cashflow

generation, balance sheet strength

and management track record

▪ Business Prospects Intacto Qualitative and quantitative analysis

of company and industry

o Financial modelling

o 3-5 year horizon

Portfolio

Construction

▪ Diversified 30-50 stock portfolio

▪ Position Sizing o Based upon estimated return,

risk and conviction

o Sector and geographic diversification

▪ Continuous Monitoringo Periodic review of position sizes

o Fundamental news flow

affecting holdings

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(*) As at 30/04/2019

Sector and Geographic Allocation (%)

44

7.8

11.5

18.6

8.9

4.0

27.3

12.4

6.53.1

Cash and Equivalents

Communication Services

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Energy

Financials

Health Care

Industrials

Information Technology

60.9

10.3

7.2

21.7

Americas

Asia Pacific

EMEA ex UK

UK

Geographic Allocation* (%)Sector Allocation* (%)

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Frontdoor 4.4

Prudential plc 4.4

PNC Financial Services Group 4.3

Arch Capital Group Ltd 4.1

The Walt Disney Co 4.0

Wells Fargo & Co 3.9

HCA Healthcare Inc 3.7

Cigna Corp 3.7

Verizon Communications Inc 3.6

Becle Sab De CV 3.4

Total 39.5

Top 10 Holdings (%)

45

(*) As at 30/04/2019

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46

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Disney’s Business Model

47

▪ Studio Entertainment (17% of revenue and 19% of operating profit)

▪ Parks, Experiences and Consumer Products (42% of revenue and 39% of operating profit)

▪ Media Networks (41% of revenue and 42% of operating profit)

These figures are shown in the old reporting segments, as of the 2018 results

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BroadcastSatellite

Legacy TV Distributor e.g. AT&T, Comcast, Charter

Linear

TV bundle

Legacy Distribution Model

CONSUMER

Linear

TV bundle

Linear

TV bundle

Disney

Cable

48

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Internet Delivered Linear TV bundle

Direct to Consumer Video on Demand

Over-The-Top Model

CONSUMER

Legacy TV

Distributor

Disney

49

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Source: Credo Source: qz.com

Cord cutting hurts Disney

50

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Internet Delivered Linear TV bundle

Direct to Consumer Video on Demand

Over-The-Top Model

CONSUMER

Legacy TV

Distributor

Disney

51

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▪ Launched April 2018

▪ Screening exclusive material - 15 live UFC events via app

▪ ~ 600k subscriptions in 48 hours

▪ 2 million subscribers 10 months after launch

▪ Launches November 2019 in USA

▪ Exclusive home for all movies released after 2019

▪ Will also host Disney’s extensive back catalogue of Movies and TV Series

▪ Commitment to produce 4/5 original movies and original TV series

▪ Simultaneous withdrawal of certain content rights from Netflix

▪ $6.99 price tag

Disney Direct to Consumer Strategy

▪ 25 million paid subscribers

▪ Pricing changes in 2018 accelerated subscriber growth in 2018

▪ Comcast still have minority stake in platform

▪ Home to Disney and Fox content targeted at adults

52

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53

Fund Performance

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Summary Information

54

Currency GBP

Pricing Frequency Daily

Status UCITS

Benchmark MSCI World Index Net Total Return

Inception Date 3rd July 2017

ISA & SIPP Eligible Yes

Distribution Type Accumulation

Custodian & Depositary Societe General

Ongoing Charges ~ 1.20%

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Value investing can be a lonely place

55

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DYNAMIC FUND BEN NEWTON

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Biographies

Rupert SilverLead Portfolio Manager

Rupert joined Credo in 2000. He qualified in Law before completing

the Securities Institute Diploma. Previous tenures were at Wise

Speke and Brewin Dolphin Securities. Rupert is a Director of Credo,

has 20 years of portfolio management experience and alongside the

Dynamic fund he heads Credo fixed income.

Benjamin Newton

Portfolio Manager

Ben joined Credo as an investment analyst in 2014. He holds an

MSc in Finance from Imperial College and is a CFA charterholder.

Prior to joining Credo, Ben spent four years working at Barclays

Wealth & Investments managing private client portfolios as a

Discretionary Portfolio Manager.

The Dynamic team are supported by the broader investment and dealing teams

57

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Agenda

Credo

Dynamic

Aim & Objectives

Key Principles

Deep DivePerformance

Conclusion

58

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Aim & Objectives

59

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Aim & Objectives - Defining Dynamic

Credo Dynamic

1.Managers of Credo Dynamic believe different market environments require

different investment approaches and asset allocations throughout the cycle

2. The key to our investment approach is flexibility

60

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Aim & Objectives - Fund objective

Aiming to achieve equity-like returns with lower volatility

61

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Key Principles

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Sterling BBB Corp

UK SMIDSterling Corp

Sterling High Yield

UK Small Cap

UK Equities

GBP Cash

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Retu

rn (

ann.)

Volatility

UK Risk Return Scatter1998-2018

Key Principle 1 - Inclusion of Fixed Income

63Source: Credo, Bloomberg

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Key Principle 2 - Include smaller companies

64Source: Credo, Kenneth French

17%

15% 15%14%

14% 14%

13% 13%

12%

11%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Small 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Large

Average Return by Market Cap1926-2019

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Key Principle 2 - Include smaller companies

65Source: Financial Times

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Key Principle 3 - Include high returning alternatives

Alternative

Alternative

Alternative

Emerging Market Equities

Global EquitiesAlternative

High Yield Bonds

Cash

Property

Bonds

Private Equity

With Alternatives

Without Alternatives

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00%

Retu

rn

Volatility

Source: Credo, Bloomberg indices for Hedge Fund alternatives 66

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Key Principle 4 - Core & Satellite approach

▪ Flexible asset allocation

▪ Bottom up stock pickers with a top down overlay

▪ Accessed through a wide investment universe

▪ Individual equities have a bias to SMID

67

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68

Deep Dive

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- 10.0 20.0 30.0

<£100m

£500m-£100m

£1bn-£500m

>£1bn

Market Capitalisation (%)

9.3

11.3

4.8

5.5

8.4

0.4

0.31.3

3.8

2.8

4.6

Sector (%)

Investment Trust

ETF

UCITS Fund

Financial

Consumer, Cyclical

Energy

Industrial

Consumer, Non-cyclical

Professional Services

Technology

Communications

Basic Materials

29.9

9.2

7.0

4.8

1.5

Geographical (%)

UK

North America

Global

Asia Pacifc

EMEA

Deep Dive - Equities

Total Equity Allocation = 52.4%

69

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Why UK bias?

▪ The team have an extensive network within the UK market which will we believe will add value over the longer term

▪ Regularly meet management of all significant holdings or prospective investments

▪ Access to UK capital markets

Home Bias - Fingers on the pulse in the UK investing community

70

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-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

£m

Net Retail Sales of UK Equity Funds

Contrarian - Provides better value opportunities for the long term investor

‘The consensus among investors is that

the UK is un-investable’

Global CIO @ UBS Wealth Management - November 2018

‘Britain is now uninvestable -

which probably makes now a good time to buy’

Executive Editor @ MoneyWeek - November 2018

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

Price / E

arn

ings P

rem

ium

or

Dis

count

FTSE 250 vs MSCI World

Pre-referendum Premium, 101.5%

Post-referendum Discount, 87.7%

71

Why UK bias?

Source: Bloomberg, Credo, Investment Association

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Deep Dive - Equities Example: PPHE Hotel Group

▪ Market Capitalisation: £700m

▪ Owner, operator and development of premier

hotels in London and across Europe

▪ Discount to Net Asset Value: 33%

▪ Leverage: 28.7%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

190%

72Source: Bloomberg, Credo

Allocation = 4.3%

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Deep Dive - Equities Example: Team17

▪ Market Capitalisation: £340m

▪ Independent games label for games

▪ Investment committee of gamers

▪ A diversified play on the growth of gaming

without the overhang of ‘hard copy’

▪ Backing experienced management team

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

73

Allocation = 1.0%

Source: Bloomberg, Credo

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Deep Dive - Equities Example: Perpetual Income & Growth

▪ Market Capitalisation: £790m

▪ Domestically focused portfolio

▪ UK equity discount

▪ Investment trust has drifted to

an attractive discount to NAV

74

-14%

-9%

-4%

1%

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jul-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jul-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan

-19

Ma

r-19

Premium / Discount

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

-14

Ma

r-14

Ma

y-1

4

Jul-1

4

Se

p-1

4

Nov-1

4

Jan

-15

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Jul-1

5

Se

p-1

5

Nov-1

5

Jan

-16

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Jul-1

6

Se

p-1

6

Nov-1

6

Jan

-17

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Jul-1

7

Se

p-1

7

Nov-1

7

Jan

-18

Ma

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jul-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Nov-1

8

Jan

-19

Ma

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

NAV

Allocation = 1.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Credo

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2.75

28.43

Currency (%)

USD

GBP

11.4

18.9

0.9

Rank (%)

Senior

Subordinated

AT1

0 5 10 15

10+ Years

5-10 Years

3-5 Years

<3 years

Duration(%)

Fixed Income overview

Total Fixed Income Allocation = 31.2%

7575

▪ Average duration to call - 4.27

▪ Yield to worst - 5.65%

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Deep Dive – Fixed Income

Bond

▪ Maturity: December 2025

▪ Rank: Subordinated

▪ Yield to maturity: 6.5%

▪ Credit rating: BB-

Company

▪ Funeral and convenience shopping

▪ Experienced management team

▪ Consumer staple product

76

Allocation = 3.2%

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Alternative Overview

Total Alternative Allocation = 11.7%

▪ 11 holdings

▪ All investment trust

▪ High returning, low correlation assets

77

0.64

0.33

0.4

0.49

2.83 2.59

4

Sector (%)

Reinsurance Contracts

Non-Performing Loans

Energy Storage

Real Estate

Leasing

CLO/ MBS

Song Royalty

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Global Recorded Music Revenues (USD Billions)

Performance Rights Phsyical Digital Streaming Synchronisation Revenues

Deep Dive - Alternative Example: Hipgnosis Song

Market Capitalisation

£350mSong Revenue Multiple

12.6xStreaming Revenue Growth

33%

Source: International Federation of the Phonographic Industry 78

Allocation = 4.0%

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Top 10 %

Cash 5.15

Park Plaza Hotels Ltd 4.32

Hipgnosis Songs Fund Limited 4.00

Co-Operative Group Ltd 11.00% 20/12/2025 3.21

BB Healthcare Trust Plc 2.52

iShares S&P 500 2.49

Xtrackers Msci World Hedged 2.27

Burford Capital Plc 6.125% 26/10/2024 2.17

Pacific Horizon Investment Trust Plc 2.12

Nationwide 10.25% CCDS 2.05

66.9

14.5

11.4

5.4

1.8

Geographical (%)

UK

Global

North America

Asia Pacific

EMEA

Portfolio overview - May 2019

7979

11.7

25.0

27.4

31.2

5.1

Asset Allocation (%)

Alternative

Collective Equities

Single Line Equities

Corporate Bonds

Cash

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80

Performance

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Performance

95

97

99

101

103

105

107

109

111

113

Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19Mar-19 Apr-19

Credo - Dynamic A Retail Acc GBP in GB IA Flexible Investment TR in GB

81Source: FE Analytics, 3rd July 2017 - 1st May 2019

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AFI Balanced TR

Credo Dynamic A

IA Flexible

IBOXX UK Sterling Corporate All Maturities

MSCI United Kingdom All Cap GTR in GB

Numis Smaller Companies + AIM

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

9

9.5

10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Retu

rn

Volatility

82

Performance

Source: FE Analytics

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Summary information

Currency GBP

Pricing Frequency Daily

Status UCITS

Benchmark IA Flexible

Inception Date 3rd July 2017

ISA & SIPP Eligible Yes

Distribution Type Accumulation

Custodian & Depositary Societe General

Ongoing Charges 1.44%

Key Investor Information: Risk Profile 4

83

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Long-only

Multi-asset

Flexible asset allocation

Wide investment universe

No derivatives, gearing or hedging

Recap

84

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Conclusion

✓ Credo Dynamic is a diversified portfolio that aims to produce equity like returns with lower volatility

✓ A differentiated investment offering

✓ Nimble

✓ Looking to build on initial strong track record

✓ Management, Credo and staff have significant aligned interests

85

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CREDO WEALTH PLATFORM OVERVIEW RICHARD PINDER

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Wealth Platform Target Market

Credo's Wealth Platform provides an integrated trading through to custody solution for

financial intermediaries, including; Wealth Managers, Financial Advisory Firms and Family

Offices who are looking for a trusted partner

Multi-Asset Class

Equities; Fixed Income; Funds (whole of market, incl. ETFs, VCTs & Hedge Funds);

Foreign Exchange; Cash (multi - currency)

Product Wraps

ISAs; Pensions (SIPPs); Onshore & Offshore Bonds; Offshore Trust,

Company & Fiduciary services

Investment Management & Reporting

Research; Portfolio Modelling; Investor Reporting; Tax Reporting

Multi-Custodian

Over 60 markets; UK and Offshore (Channel Islands) custodians

87

Platform: Capability Overview

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88

MyCredo is a multi-asset class, multi-currency web based platform with various solutions:

MyCredo – for Professional Managers

▪ Customisable and consolidated investor views

▪ Basic CRM

▪ Research

▪ Portfolio modelling, including drift analysis

& rebalancing

▪ On-line trading

▪ Reporting, including Subscription service

▪ Over 1,000 users

MyCredo Client – for Investors

▪ Multi-browser web based

▪ Secure and ‘white-labelled’

▪ Integrated to your website

▪ Configurable to your specific requirements

▪ Option: On-line trading or View-only

▪ Reporting

▪ Over 3,200 users

▪ Leverage best of breed providers:

Data Portal – for internal use

▪ Service provides access to client,

transactional, positional data

& reporting information

▪ Available in multiple formats

(standard file, bespoke file, data portal)

▪ API accessed via HTTPS

▪ Contains developer portal & documentation

Platform: Technology Solutions

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89

User configurable dashboard

Platform: Technology Solutions - MyCredo

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CONCLUSION CHARLES VAN DER MERWE

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credogroup.com