investing in the u.s
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INVESTING IN THE U.S. Name Title Company DATE. 2. 3. 1. AGENDA. RECENT EVENTS. REASONS FOR OPTIMISM. LESSONS FROM HISTORY. RECENT EVENTS. A ROLLERCOASTER DECADE IN THE U.S. Technology Bubble. U.S. Budgetary Crisis. Financial Crisis. Source: Yahoo Finance. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
INVESTING IN THE U.S.
Name
TitleCompany
DATE
AGENDA
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
RECENT EVENTS
2.
3.
1.
RECENT EVENTS
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
A ROLLERCOASTER DECADE IN THE U.S.
Technology Bubble
Financial Crisis
U.S. Budgetary
Crisis
Source: Yahoo Finance.S&P 500, January 1995 to October 3rd, 2011. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.
CAUSES OF RECENT GLOBAL VOLATILITY
REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE U.S.
GDP CONTINUES TO GROW
$13,000
$13,500
$14,000
$14,500
$15,000
$15,500
I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2009 2010 2011
In b
illio
ns
U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
REVENUE
U.S. COMPANIES EARN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF REVENUE OUTSIDE THE U.S.
Source: RBC Economics, % of revenue of S&P 500 Companies.
OutsideU.S. In the
U.S.
U.S. CORPORATE PROFITS ARE GROWING
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2007q1 2007q3 2008q1 2008q3 2009q1 2009q3 2010q1 2010q3 2011q1 2011q3
In b
illio
ns
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. STOCKS ARE CHEAP
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PRICE TO EARNINGS LEVELS OF THE S&P 500
Source: Morningstar, November 30th 1999 to October 31st 2011.
SAVING HAS IMPROVED AND SPENDING HAS INCREASED
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Savings Rate as a a percentage of disposable income. Spending Rate in billions. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
U.S. SAVINGS RATE U.S. SPENDING RATE
BROADER SECTOR DIVERSIFICATION
Source: Morningstar, as of November 23rd, 2011.
CANADIAN CONCENTRATION IN 3 SECTORS HAS HURT PERFORMANCE. U.S. OFFERS BROADER DIVERSIFICATION TO SECTORS NOT REPRESENTED IN CANADA
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Energy
Materials
Financials
Industrials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Health Care
Information Technology
Telecom. Services
Utilities
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
4 SECTORS: • 9% of Canadian
market• 43% of U.S.
market• Positive
performance YTD
YTD: -6.9% YTD: +1%
3 SECTORS: • 78% of Canadian
market • Negative
performance YTD
Sector Weight Sector Performance
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
CURRENCY IMPACT
Source: Bank of Canada as of January 4th, 2010 to December 1st, 2011.
CANADIAN DOLLAR HAS STABILIZED
LESSONS FROM HISTORY
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994
1974
THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A REASON NOT TO INVEST
Source: Yahoo Finance.S&P 500, January 1974 to December 31, 1997. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.
199219871984198019791979
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
NEWS IS JUST THAT…. NEWS
Source: Yahoo Finance.S&P 500, January 19995 to October 3, 2011. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.
FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE
First 100-point dive in Dow Jones history on Friday, October 16, 1987
The 2nd was the following Monday
Sources: Reuters, Government of Canada.
“BLACK MONDAY” THE CRASH OF 1987
FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE
Dow Jones down 554.26 points, or 7% 12th biggest percentage loss and 3rd
biggest points loss on record NASDAQ Composite fell 7% S&P 500 fell 64.63, or 6%, to 877.01
Sources: Reuters.
OCTOBER 27,1997
Closed for 6 days: longest stock market closure since the Great Depression
Down 684 points (7%): Dow Jones biggest-ever one-day point decline
By weeks end: Down 1369.7 points (14.3%), its largest one-week point drop in history
FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE
Sources: Reuters.
THE AFTERMATH OF 9/11 2001
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE
Crash of 1987
1997 market crisis
9/11
Latin America
Savings & Loan Crisis
Mexican Peso Crisis
Russian Crisis
European Debt
Worries
$10,000
$106,197
2008 Financial Crisis
Source Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 January 1970 to October 3rd, 2011.For illustrative purposes only.
U.S. MARKET TENDS TO RECOVER OVER TIME
FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
504%
981%14 years sideways
13 years sideways
Source: Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 January 1950 to October 3rd, 2011.For illustrative purposes only.
STRONG BULL MARKETS TEND TO FOLLOW SIDEWAYS MARKETS
FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM
Rise and fall of high growth stocks The U.S. was committed to a war in Asia Oil prices have skyrocketed U.S. unemployment at 9%+
1998 – 2011
1982 – 1997
1968 – 1982
Source: Yahoo Finance, S&P 500. Light blue chart from January 1, 2008 to October 3rd, 2011. Dark Blue chart January 1st, 1968 to December 31st, 1997.For illustrative purposes only.
DOES HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?
YOU DON’T NEED TO TIME THE MARKET WITH DOLLAR COST AVERAGING PRODUCTS
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
Sep-2008 Nov-2008 Jan-2009 Mar-2009 May-2009 Jul-2009
Lump Sum
Dollar Cost Averaging Product
Source: Yahoo Finance.The above chart illustrates a hypothetical lump sum $50,000 investment in the S&P 500. The Dollar Cost averaging product transfers the $50,000 investment into the S&P 500 over a 52 week period, with the remainder waiting to be invested in cash. For illustrative purposes only.
THEY CAN SMOOTH OUT MARKET VOLATILITY$50,000 HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT IN THE S&P 500
IMPORTANT INFORMATION
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in units value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated
Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any funds managed by Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd. These views are not to be considered as investment advice nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.
This document is not to be distributed or reproduced without the consent of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel. Dynamic Funds is a division of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd.