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INVESTING IN THE U.S. Name Title Company DATE

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INVESTING IN THE U.S. Name Title Company DATE. 2. 3. 1. AGENDA. RECENT EVENTS. REASONS FOR OPTIMISM. LESSONS FROM HISTORY. RECENT EVENTS. A ROLLERCOASTER DECADE IN THE U.S. Technology Bubble. U.S. Budgetary Crisis. Financial Crisis. Source: Yahoo Finance. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

INVESTING IN THE U.S.

Name

TitleCompany

DATE

Page 2: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

AGENDA

LESSONS FROM HISTORY

REASONS FOR OPTIMISM

RECENT EVENTS

2.

3.

1.

Page 3: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

RECENT EVENTS

Page 4: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1995 1999 2003 2007 2011

A ROLLERCOASTER DECADE IN THE U.S.

Technology Bubble

Financial Crisis

U.S. Budgetary

Crisis

Source: Yahoo Finance.S&P 500, January 1995 to October 3rd, 2011. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.

Page 6: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN THE U.S.

Page 7: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

GDP CONTINUES TO GROW

$13,000

$13,500

$14,000

$14,500

$15,000

$15,500

I II III IV I II III IV I II III

2009 2010 2011

In b

illio

ns

U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 8: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

REVENUE

U.S. COMPANIES EARN A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF REVENUE OUTSIDE THE U.S.

Source: RBC Economics, % of revenue of S&P 500 Companies.

OutsideU.S. In the

U.S.

Page 9: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

U.S. CORPORATE PROFITS ARE GROWING

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2007q1 2007q3 2008q1 2008q3 2009q1 2009q3 2010q1 2010q3 2011q1 2011q3

In b

illio

ns

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Page 10: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

U.S. STOCKS ARE CHEAP

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

PRICE TO EARNINGS LEVELS OF THE S&P 500

Source: Morningstar, November 30th 1999 to October 31st 2011.

Page 11: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

SAVING HAS IMPROVED AND SPENDING HAS INCREASED

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012e0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Savings Rate as a a percentage of disposable income. Spending Rate in billions. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

U.S. SAVINGS RATE U.S. SPENDING RATE

Page 12: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

BROADER SECTOR DIVERSIFICATION

Source: Morningstar, as of November 23rd, 2011.

CANADIAN CONCENTRATION IN 3 SECTORS HAS HURT PERFORMANCE. U.S. OFFERS BROADER DIVERSIFICATION TO SECTORS NOT REPRESENTED IN CANADA

-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40%

Energy

Materials

Financials

Industrials

Consumer Discretionary

Consumer Staples

Health Care

Information Technology

Telecom. Services

Utilities

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

4 SECTORS: • 9% of Canadian

market• 43% of U.S.

market• Positive

performance YTD

YTD: -6.9% YTD: +1%

3 SECTORS: • 78% of Canadian

market • Negative

performance YTD

Sector Weight Sector Performance

Page 13: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Jan-10

Feb-10

Mar-10

Apr-10

May-10

Jun-10

Jul-10

Sep-10

Oct-10

Nov-10

Dec-10

Jan-11

Feb-11

Mar-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

CURRENCY IMPACT

Source: Bank of Canada as of January 4th, 2010 to December 1st, 2011.

CANADIAN DOLLAR HAS STABILIZED

Page 14: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

LESSONS FROM HISTORY

Page 15: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994

1974

THERE HAS ALWAYS BEEN A REASON NOT TO INVEST

Source: Yahoo Finance.S&P 500, January 1974 to December 31, 1997. The chart above is for illustrative purposes only.

199219871984198019791979

Page 17: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE

First 100-point dive in Dow Jones history on Friday, October 16, 1987

The 2nd was the following Monday

Sources: Reuters, Government of Canada.

“BLACK MONDAY” THE CRASH OF 1987

Page 18: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE

Dow Jones down 554.26 points, or 7% 12th biggest percentage loss and 3rd

biggest points loss on record NASDAQ Composite fell 7% S&P 500 fell 64.63, or 6%, to 877.01

Sources: Reuters.

OCTOBER 27,1997

Page 19: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

Closed for 6 days: longest stock market closure since the Great Depression

Down 684 points (7%): Dow Jones biggest-ever one-day point decline

By weeks end: Down 1369.7 points (14.3%), its largest one-week point drop in history

FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE

Sources: Reuters.

THE AFTERMATH OF 9/11 2001

Page 20: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

100.00

1,000.00

10,000.00

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

FOCUS ON THE BIG PICTURE

Crash of 1987

1997 market crisis

9/11

Latin America

Savings & Loan Crisis

Mexican Peso Crisis

Russian Crisis

European Debt

Worries

$10,000

$106,197

2008 Financial Crisis

Source Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 January 1970 to October 3rd, 2011.For illustrative purposes only.

U.S. MARKET TENDS TO RECOVER OVER TIME

Page 21: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

504%

981%14 years sideways

13 years sideways

Source: Yahoo Finance, S&P 500 January 1950 to October 3rd, 2011.For illustrative purposes only.

STRONG BULL MARKETS TEND TO FOLLOW SIDEWAYS MARKETS

Page 22: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

FOCUS ON THE LONG TERM

Rise and fall of high growth stocks The U.S. was committed to a war in Asia Oil prices have skyrocketed U.S. unemployment at 9%+

1998 – 2011

1982 – 1997

1968 – 1982

Source: Yahoo Finance, S&P 500. Light blue chart from January 1, 2008 to October 3rd, 2011. Dark Blue chart January 1st, 1968 to December 31st, 1997.For illustrative purposes only.

DOES HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF?

Page 23: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

YOU DON’T NEED TO TIME THE MARKET WITH DOLLAR COST AVERAGING PRODUCTS

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Sep-2008 Nov-2008 Jan-2009 Mar-2009 May-2009 Jul-2009

Lump Sum

Dollar Cost Averaging Product

Source: Yahoo Finance.The above chart illustrates a hypothetical lump sum $50,000 investment in the S&P 500. The Dollar Cost averaging product transfers the $50,000 investment into the S&P 500 over a 52 week period, with the remainder waiting to be invested in cash. For illustrative purposes only.

THEY CAN SMOOTH OUT MARKET VOLATILITY$50,000 HYPOTHETICAL INVESTMENT IN THE S&P 500

Page 24: INVESTING  IN THE U.S

IMPORTANT INFORMATION

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in units value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any securityholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated

Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector should not be considered an indication of trading intent of any funds managed by Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd. These views are not to be considered as investment advice nor should they be considered a recommendation to buy or sell.

This document is not to be distributed or reproduced without the consent of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel. Dynamic Funds is a division of Goodman & Company, Investment Counsel Ltd.

Page 25: INVESTING  IN THE U.S