investing in gold equities
DESCRIPTION
Objective Capital's Precious Metals, Diamonds & Gemstones Investment Summit 2011Ironmongers' Hall, City of London6 April 2011Speaker: Tim Weir, Wessex Asset ManagementTRANSCRIPT
PRECIOUS METALS, DIAMONDS & GEMSTONESINVESTMENT SUMMIT
IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● WEDNESDAY, 6 APR 2011www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com
Investing in gold equitiesTim Weir – Investment Director, Wessex Asset Management
2March 11
W E S S E X G O L D F U N D
Who are we - Wessex Asset Management Pages 3-5
What are the characteristics of the gold market(s)
and how can we make money for our investors?
Pages 6-11
Stock picking in gold equities
Does it work?
Pages 12-14
Appendices and disclaimer Pages 15-24
Wessex Asset Management
4March 11
� 10+ year hedge fund track record co-managing the Wessex Asia Pacific Fund (WAPF).
� Wessex Natural Resources Fund manager since 2004 launch.
� Wessex Gold Fund manager since 2007 launch
� Economist by training
� MA Oxford PPE 1980
� AIIMR since 1982
� Set up Abbey Commodity and Energy Trust 1982
� Head of equities, Swiss Bank Corporation institutional funds London 1988-1993
� Managed SBC’s GoldPortfolio, one of the world’s biggest gold equity funds, which won the Bopp-FinanzSwiss mutual fund prize 1990-93
� Director of European equities at Nat West Investment Management 1993-1996
Tim WeirChief Executive,
Investment Director
Fund Manager:
Wessex Gold Fund
Wessex Natural Resources Fund
Wessex Asset Management
5March 11
Peter Chesterfield Chairman,
Investment Director
� 10+ year Asian Hedge Fund track record co-
managing the Wessex Asia Pacific Fund (WAPF)
� Co-manager Wessex Natural Resource and Gold
funds
� MSc (Honours) Mining Geology
� Exploration Geologist, Project Geologist,
Investment Analyst in ANZ 1979-82
� Mining analyst at Prudential in London 1982-84
� Managed Abbey’s Commodity and Energy trust
(ACET) and resource portfolios (see appendices).
� 14 year Asian track record managing Abbey
Life’s Asian Pacific Trust (AAPT) 1985-99.
Responsibility for over $1 billion of assets at
Abbey Life
The Gold bull market in US dollars
6March 11
USD
The gold bull market is not driven just by US$ weakness…
Gold Price in Major Currencies
7March 11
Source: Bloomberg
AUD
EURO
not driven just be US$ weakness
… There is an ongoing gold bull market even in strong currencies
8March 11
Gold is still in a bull market
Strong gold supply / demand fundamentals
1. Real interest rates are still very low or negative
2. Strong consumer demand, increasingly from newly affluent Asians
3. Asian central bank buying – Iran the latest to diversify reserves
4. Perceived as a safe haven in times of financial instability
5. Increased investment demand assisted by launch of ETFs
6. Falling gold mine production (notably South Africa)
Cross-currents
1. Gold normally benefits from US$ weakness and rate cuts
2. Gold as each-way bet on inflation and deflation risks
3. Can lose out tactically on FX moves and liquidity drying-up
4. End of QE, high interest rates and end of inflation fears would signal end of gold
bull market
Equities
1. Equities have ‘optionality’ and are currently cheap relative to bullion
Gold market s – the new geography
9March 11
North America: Valuation premium
justified by lower political risk.
Some production expansion from
reviving older mines.
Australia: Most pure Oz gold
plays are small (except
Newcrest). Oz-listed stocks
producing from Asia, Africa.
South Africa: Increasing depth, power supply issues
and falling grades make cost control very difficult.
Politics a worry.
West Africa: The new frontier. Exciting growth eg
Tasiast mega-mine. Politics has improved significantly.
South America: Some
interesting assets,
mostly owned by North
American majors.
Russia & FSU: Some opportunities but
major expropriation risk.
China: World’s biggest producer, but
companies are fairly opaque.
Defining a profitable niche 1
10March 11
� Gold is in a long-term bull market, but one characterized by high
volatility and enormous stock divergence – how to profit from this?
� Gold equities have leverage to bullion through operating gearing
and enhancing the value of reserves in the ground
� Commodity equities have accessible stock alpha due to the generally
poor quality of research. Analysts tend to be relatively
inexperienced. Good stock pickers should be able to beat a gold
equity index or ETF.
� Wessex principals have been meeting mine managers, going
underground and analyzing gold mines since early 1980s. No special
magic, just hard work and knowledge which cannot be replicated in
front of Bloomberg screens
Sustainable excess returns can be generated by a L/S gold equity
fund because of persistent characteristics in the gold market
Defining a profitable niche 2
� A good stock picker can add more value in a long/short fund than
in a long-only vehicle – the gross can be higher, the net can be
higher or lower, shorts can be used for alpha or for protection
� Gold shares should do better than bullion in a bull market
� CTAs are better placed for protecting downside and making
money in bear markets, but will normally not give full exposure
in a bull market
� Value can be added by timely exposure to silver, diamonds and
PGM equities
11March 11
A long/short gold equity fund offers differentiated value –
not replicated by CTAs, long-only funds or holding physical gold
Investment Philosophy
12March 11
Resource markets Ideas before numbers – correlations are unstable
(no mechanistic data mining )
Stereoscopic investment Dynamic equilibrium between bottom-up and top-
down
Diversification By strategy and theme, reduces risk and volatility.
More arbitrage when unclear on directional bets
Style chameleon Value, growth and momentum at appropriate times
Risk Take only the risk we want, understand and can
turn into value
Technical analysis/charts Used to assist in timing
WGF trade examples: AUSGOLD
13March 11
A new gold province in Western Australia?
WGF trade examples: PETRA DIAMONDS
14March 11
Ex-De Beers management cutting costs and innovating in diamonds in southern Africa
WNRF Trade examples 1:
15March 11
Short trade – Sons of Gwalia
(Gold, Australia):
� Stock trading on a very
high valuation despite
our concerns that the
balance sheet remained
stretched.
� The hedge book was
progressively getting
further into the red,
while reserves were not
being replaced.
� RESULT: company
announced profit-
warning in July 2004 and
entered administration in
August.
Source: Bloomberg,WAM
0
0 .5
1
1 .5
2
2 .5
3
BUY
SELL-37
-67
-86
-100
-65
-1 2 0
-1 0 0
-8 0
-6 0
-4 0
-2 0
0
0 9 /0 6 /2 0 0 4
Cumulative (1000's
Shares) Delisted
Crossed with Morgan Stnley after delisting,
short covered at 0.01
Uncertainty over reserve replacement
and company cash balance
Risk Parameters
16March 11
WGFT Long / Short Exposure History
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
May-04 Nov-04 May-05 Nov-05 May-06 Nov-06 May-07
WGFT = Wessex Gold Fund THEORETICAL = using actual precious metal sector weightings of the Wessex Natural Resource Fund (WNRF) May 2004 to July 2007 and scaling the weightings up such that the average net position over the life of the WGFT would have been 100% net in these sectors. Average precious metal sector weight in WNRF to date has been 23% and therefore the attribution has been scaled up by a constant factor of 1/23%.
Source:WAM
WNRF Market Cap of Precious Exposures
Snapshot
-5%
5%
15%
Large <5bn Mid<1bn Small<300 Commodity
Source, Definition : WAM 31st May 2006
Summary
17March 11
� We can make very significant money in the continuing gold bull
market.
� Good stock picking and market timing can turn this into a longer-term
profitable hedge fund opportunity
� Wessex team has a strong fund track record and portfolio managers
who are very experienced in gold markets
� A dedicated L/S gold fund, run more aggressively in terms of the net
and stock concentration can achieve very strong returns
WGF performance versus gold bullion and gold shares
18March 11
WGF Outperformed Gold Shares Index by 12% in 2010
-
50
100
150
200
250
AMEX GOLD BUGS INDEX (^HUI) Wessex Gold Fund (WGF) Gold Bullion
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
WGF 3.7% -27.5% 35.5% 45.3% -6.8%
HUI 4.2% -26.1% 42.2% 33.4% -1.6%
W E S S E X G O L D F U N D
‘A’ J F M A M J J A S O N D YTD
2007 5.9% -4.8% 3.1% 3.7%
2008 5.2% 10.3% -9.6% -11.1% 9.6% 2.1% -8.5% -12.8% -5.8% -39.5% 27.2% 20.5% -27.5%
2009 -3.0% 0.3% 9.2% -3.1% 16.2% -8.7% 1.5% 1.5% 10.5% -5.2% 18.3% -2.9% 35.5%
2010 -7.5% 4.1% 0.9% 5.2% -2.5% 2.7% -1.8% 6.0% 13.0% 4.9% 1.2% 13.7% 45.3%
2011 -9.2% 2.6% -6.8%
Reported performance is net of fees. Performance numbers shown are records of past performance and as such do not guarantee or provide a guide to future performance.
Wessex Asset Management
20March 11 20March 11
Peter Chesterfield
Tim Weir
Gabrielle Knights
Anna Donald
Brendan Long
Sarah Martin
Nicola Dady
Douglas Sloane
George Vere-Laurie
Mishcon De Reya
Throgmorton
IMS Consulting
Treken
Chairman and Investment Director
CEO and Investment Director
Fund Manager
Fund Manager
Consultant, hydrocarbons
Associate Director, Operations
Middle Office Executive
Marketing Director
Consultant, risk and business development
WAM Legal Counsel
WAM Accounting
Compliance Consultants
Technology Support
Fund Service Providers
21March 11
Investment Manager Wessex Asset Management Ltd.
8 Queen Street
London WIJ 5PD
Prime Broker / Custodian Morgan Stanley
25 Cabot Square, Canary Wharf
London E14 4QA
Auditor Ernst & Young
Harcourt Centre, Harcourt Street
Dublin 2, Ireland
Administrator BNY Mellon Alternative Investment Services
Unit D1, Balmoral Estate, Kells Road
Navan, Co. Meath, Ireland
Legal Counsel Mishcon De Reya
Summit House, 12 Red Lion Square
London, WC!R 4QD
Legal Counsel (offshore) Maples and Calder
PO Box 309, Georgetown
Cayman Islands
Fund Overview
22March 11
Minimum Investment 500,000 USD
Subscriptions Monthly
Redemptions Monthly 30 calendar day notice
Management Fee 1.5% Share Class A, 1% Share Class B
Incentive Fee 20% Share Class A 15% Share Class B
Other Fees None
High Water Mark Yes
Lockup None Share Class A ,12 months Share Class B
Early Redemption Fee None
Benchmark HUI Gold Bugs Index, XAU Gold and Silver Index in US$
Volatility Benchmark HUI Gold Bugs Index
Strategy Long/Short Gold and Precious Metals Equities
Region Global
Domicile Cayman Islands
Listing Irish Stock Exchange
Target Return 25% compounded per annum
Target Volatility none
Abbey Commodity & Energy Trust Limited (ACET)
23March 11
Offer to Offer Price Basis (Net Income Reinvested)
Fund
FT GOLD MINES 142.0 80.7 127.5 89.7 310.1
FTA OILS 175.7 227.7 420.0 375.7 669.2
PLND SVNGS COMMY & ENERGY 184.6 178.9 267.7 205.6 495.2
ABBEY COMMODITY & ENERGY 233.7 1 272.0 2 409.7 1
ALLIED DUNBAR MET MIN COM 178.1 17 169.5 17 248.7 11 237.0 3 481.4 6
BG ENERGY 167.8 23 268.0 3
COUNTY ENERGY 135.2 28 122.5 24 176.4 16
EFM RESOURCES 162.4 25 148.8 20
F&C NATURAL RESOURCES 195.8 10 179.4 13
GARTMORE COMMODITY 177.5 18 183.2 12 305.6 4 232.6 4 616.7 3
GARTMORE GOLD SHARE 197.2 9 176.5 16
GARTMORE OIL & ENERGY 168.7 21 159.6 19 251.5 10
GOVERTT GOLD & MINERALS 227.3 2 206.8 6
HENDERSON GLOBAL RESCRCS 201.7 7 193.0 8 275.3 8 242.4 2 676.6 1
HENDERSON GOLD 203.9 5
HILL SAMUEL NATURL RESRCS 198.5 8 210.3 5 300.6 5
LEGAL & GENERAL NAT RESOR 201.9 6
LLOYDS BK ENERGY INTERNTL 141.9 27 143.6 22 213.2 15
M&G COMMODITY & GENERAL 189.6 13 184.6 11 324.4 3 270.4 1 638.8 2
M&G GOLD & GENERAL 183.7 16 191.0 9
MIDLAND BK COMMODITY 171.4 20 177.3 15 262.9 9 188.9 7 468.5 7
MIM BRIT COMMODITY SHARE 167.8 22 178.7 14 247.9 12 160.7 9 401.1 8
MIM BRIT GOLD 186.0 15 239.6 4
WIM BRIT UNIVERSAL ENERGY 149.2 26 92.1 25 146.8 17 84.5 10 223.5 10
NM SCHRODER GOLD 204.3 4 197.0 7
S&P COMMODITY SHARE 186.2 14 190.5 10 277.8 6 220.8 6 528.4 4
S&P ENERGY INDUSTRIES 164.1 24 141.9 23 220.0 14 162.3 8 389.4 9
S&P EXPLORATION 217.5 3 293.1 1 400.0 2
TARGET COMMODITY 189.7 12 146.5 21 239.5 13 224.3 5 516.2 5
TARGET GOLD 174.7 19 165.7 18 275.6 7
TSB NATURAL RESOURCES 192.9 11
TRUST AVERAGE
Source:
Current Valueof £100 Invested over various periods to 1st October 1987
Planned Savings Magazine UK
120 Months
28 FUNDS 25 FUNDS 17 FUNDS 10 FUNDS 10 FUNDS
12 Months 36 Months 60 Months 84 Months
494.1184.6 185.2 269.2 202.4
ACET in Planned
Savings Magazine
� Managed by Tim Weir and
Peter Chesterfield
� Ranked 1st for 12mths
� Ranked 2nd for 36mths
� Ranked 1st for 60mths
DISCLAIMER
24March 11
Important Notice:
The Wessex Gold Fund THEORETICAL (WGFT) should be viewed solely as a calculation of the precious metal sector performance of theWessex Natural Resource Fund (WNRF) whilst as a variable part of the WNRF portfolio. The actual performance of the proposed Wessex GoldFund could and probably will have different characteristics. These differences include but are not limited to regional, concentration, gross andfund focus.
This document is intended solely for publication and distribution to the recipient and may not be passed on or disclosed to any other person.This document is for information only and is not an offer to sell or an invitation to buy shares in the Wessex Gold Fund. In particular, it doesnot constitute an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful or where the person making the offer or solicitation is not qualifiedto do so or the recipient may not lawfully receive any such offer or solicitation. It is the responsibility of any person in possession of thisdocument to inform themselves of, and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of relevant jurisdictions.The information and anyopinions contained herein have been obtained from or are based on sources which are believed to be reliable, but the accuracy cannot beguaranteed. No responsibility can be accepted for any consequential loss from this information. Prospective investors should review theprospectus for the WGF before making an investment decision and should rely only on the information contained in the prospectus. Prospectiveinvestors should also inform themselves, and should take appropriate advice, on the legal requirements and as to the possible taxconsequences, foreign exchange restrictions or exchange control requirements that they may encounter under the laws of the countries of theircitizenship, residence or domicile and that may be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of anyinvestments.
The value of investments and income derived therefrom can decrease as well as increase (this may be partly due to exchange rate fluctuationsin investments that have an exposure to currencies other than the base currency of the Fund). Performance numbers shown are records of pastperformance and as such do not guarantee future performance. Regulated in the United Kingdom by FSA.
This document is issued by Wessex Asset Management Limited. The Wessex Gold Fund (the ‘fund’) is defined as an' Unregulated CollectiveInvestment Scheme’ (‘UCIS’) and the promotion of a UCIS either within the UK or from the UK is severely restricted by statute. Consequently,this document is only made available to Professional Clients and Eligible Counterparties as defined by the FSA and to persons falling withinthe Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Promotion of Collective Investment Schemes) (Exemptions) Order 2001. Shares in the fundshould only be purchased by persons with professional experience of participating in unregulated schemes and any other person who receivesthis document should not rely upon it.
LONDON OFFICE BOURNEMOUTH OFFICE Douglas Sloane
Tel: 44 (0) 207 059 2895 Tel: 44 (0) 1 202 200 930 Director of Marketing
Fax: 44 (0) 207 059 2901 Fax: 44 (0) 1 202 200 931 [email protected]
8 Queen Street Lorne Park House, Lorne Park Road 44 (0) 207 659 2893
London WIJ 5PD Bournemouth BH1 1JJ www.wessexam.co.uk
Authorized and regulated by the FSA and registered with the SEC