Investing in Change: Towards Sustainable Economic and

Social Policy after the Crisis

Simon MaxwellOverseas Development Institute

The paper

• Makes the case for ‘investing in change’• Celebrates past successes;• Reviews future challenges: food; climate;

urbanisation; demography; globalisation.• Assesses the current policy debate;• Reviews policy specifics; and• Explores options for the Commonwealth.

In brief:

Three tough truths

Three tough questions

Postscript

Three tough truths

• The financial crisis was merely the curtain-raiser to a new age of complexity and common challenge.

• There is no alternative to a strategy of ‘invest in the future’.

• Commonwealth countries entered the crisis and will leave it with very different ability to respond.

Source: WDR 2010

Four scenarios

Three tough questions

• Do you as Commonwealth Finance Ministers agree with the three propositions?

• Do you think the politics of economic policy have shifted as a result of the crisis?

• How can Commonwealth countries work together and support each other?

The Common Characteristics of High, Sustained Growth

Source: Commission on Growth and Development, 2008

To be specificUNCTAD, ILO, World Bank, UN, G-20, CS:

• Financial regulation• Social protection• Public services• Research and Development• Education and Training• Infrastructure• Support to productive sectors• Business partnerships• International cooperation

Next steps?

• Advocacy

• Working together

• Mandates for the Secretariat

Investing in change: a future work programme?

• Beyond resilience: Investing in change indicators

• ‘Readiness reports’• Policy watchtower• Scenario planning• Sectoral initiatives on e.g. food

Postscript: from risk analysis to values-based transformation

The 18 Core Global Risks: Likelihood with Severity by Number of Deaths

Source: World Economic Forum - Global Risks 2008