1. Joint project of the World Bank, FAO, AU-IBAR, ILRI with support from the Gates Foundation Investing in African Livestock Business opportunities in 2030-2050 Ugo Pica-Ciamarra (FAO), Derek Baker (ILRI), Nancy Morgan (FAO) Cheikh Ly (FAO) & Simplice Nouala (AU-IBAR) Africa Livestock Conference and Exhibition June 26th 28th 2013 Safari Park Hotel, Nairobi, Kenya

2. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Outline 1. The issue and data source 2. African livestock markets vs other world regions 3. African livestock markets by product 4. African livestock markets by region 5. Who can benefit from / tap into livestock market opportunities? 6. Summary 3. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Outline 1. The issue and data source 2. African livestock markets vs other world regions 3. African livestock markets by product 4. African livestock markets by region 5. Who can benefit from / tap into livestock market opportunities? 6. Summary 4. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Africa is fast growing GDP growth rate 2011 2012 2013 2014 5.2% 5.7% 5.7% 5.4% Business opportunities 5. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org What about livestock? Business opportunities? Self employed / smallholders Large scale commercial enterprises Medium scale farmers 6. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org What about livestock? Trends in demand for / consumption of livestock products Food and non-food products Quantity Quality Price Input / output price Retail forms Etc. Business opportunities? 7. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org What about livestock? Trends in demand for / consumption of livestock products Food and non-food products Quantity Quality Price Input / output price Retail forms Etc. Business opportunities? 8. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Data source FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit: 2005/07, 2030, 2050 One indicator per year Production, food, feed, waste, etc. World regions and sub-regions Demand driven model Population and income Structural change in diets Resource availability 9. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Outline 1. The issue and data source 2. African livestock markets vs other world regions 3. African livestock markets by product 4. African livestock markets by region 5. Who can benefit from / tap into livestock market opportunities? 6. Summary 10. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Meat markets: Africa & others African meat market is and will be smaller than most meat markets in other world regions African population and meat consumption as proportion of worlds total % of world population % of meat market 2005/07 15.5 % 4.3 % 2050 26.8 % 8.4 % mio tons 11. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Milk markets: Africa & others African milk market is and will be smaller than most milk markets in other world regions African population and milk consumption as proportion of worlds total % of world population % of milk market 2005/07 15.5 % 6.3 % 2050 26.8 % 10.1 % mio tons 12. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Market size is not enough to appreciate business opportunities Business opportunities are better measured by: Projected changes in the quantity of meat / milk consumed over a reference period Speed of change (growth rate) Milk markets: Africa & others mio tons 13. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Milk market opportunities in developed countries Absolute increase Annual growth rate 2005/07- 2050 + 47 mio tons + 0.4 % Milk market opportunities in Africa Absolute increase Annual growth rate 2005/07- 2050 + 51 mio tons + 2.2 % Milk markets: Africa & others mio tons 14. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Meat markets: business opportunities Annual growth rate 2005/07 to 2050 0.4 % 2.8 % 2.4 % 1.3 % 4.1 % 1.4 % Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons 15. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Annual growth rate 2005/07 to 2050 0.4 % 2.8 % 2.4 % 1.3 % 4.1 % 1.4 % Only ES Asia and South Asia are more attractive markets than Africa in terms of growing demand Africa is the second fastest growing meat market Meat markets: business opportunities Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons 16. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Annual growth rate 2005/07 to 2050 0.4 % 2.2 % 1.7 % 1.1 % 2.0 % 1.5 % Milk markets: business opportunities Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons 17. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Annual growth rate 2005/07 to 2050 0.4 % 2.2 % 1.7 % 1.1 % 2.0 % 1.5 % Africa is the second largest market in terms of growing demand Africa is the fastest growing milk market in the world Milk markets: business opportunities Absolute increase in consumption, mio tons 18. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Outline 1. The issue and data source 2. African livestock markets vs other world regions 3. African livestock markets by product 4. African livestock markets by region 5. Who can benefit from / tap into livestock market opportunities? 6. Summary 19. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org African livestock markets by sizeMiotons 20. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org African livestock markets by sizeMiotons Milk is and will be the largest market, followed by beef and poultry 1st3rd2nd 21. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org African livestock markets: opportunitiesMiotons 8.9 8.9 2.6 3.8 4.5 50.2 Additional volume (mio tons) consumed from 2005-07 to 2050 1st2nd2nd 22. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Miotons 2.5 3.3 3.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 Annual growth rate (%) in consumption from 2005-07 to 2050 3rd 1st 1st African livestock markets: opportunities 23. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Africa livestock markets by value, 2005/07US$billion Constantprice2005/07 24. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Africa livestock markets by value, 2050US$billion Constantprice2005/07 25. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Africa livestock markets: opportunitiesUS$billion Constantprice2005/07 + 30.6 + 26.1+ 21.6 26. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Outline 1. The issue and data source 2. African livestock markets vs other world regions 3. African livestock markets by product 4. African livestock markets by region 5. Who can benefit from / tap into livestock market opportunities? 6. Summary 27. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org African regions 28. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org African milk markets Milk 2005/07 = 32.4 mio tons Eastern Africa and Northern Africa are the largest markets Over 60 % of the increased demand from milk in 2005/07- 2050 from Eastern and Northern Africa Annual growth rate 2%-3% in all regions Milk 2050 = 82.6 mio tons 29. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org African beef markets Beef 2005/07 = 4.7 mio tons Beef market is relatively uniform in terms of its importance across regions Over 70 % of the increased demand for beef in 2005/07- 2050 from Western, Southern and Eastern Africa Annual growth rate 2%-3% in all regions Beef 2050 = 13.6 mio tons 30. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org African poultry markets Poultry 2005/07 = 4.7 mio tons Poultry market is dominated by Southern and Nothern Africa Over 56 % of the increased demand in 2005/07- 2050 from Southern and Northern Africa; 20 % from West Africa Annual growth rate 3%-6% in all regions Poultry 2050 = 13.6 mio tons 31. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Outline 1. The issue and data source 2. African livestock markets vs other world regions 3. African livestock markets by product 4. African livestock markets by region 5. Who can benefit from / tap into livestock market opportunities? 6. Summary 32. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Trends in net trade African producers partly unable to fully benefit from growing market opportunities: trade balance is worsening Imports of all livestock products increasingly critical to satisfy consumers demand 33. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Types of livestock producers Large scale commercial enterprises Medium scale farmers How can they better utilize / benefit from growing livestock markets? Smallholders / self- employed 34. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Types of livestock producers Large scale commercial enterprises Medium scale farmers Smallholders / self- employed 1.Efficient / competitive? 2. Technologies / incentives? 35. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Types of livestock producers: efficiency Large scale commercial enterprises Medium scale farmers Smallholders / self- employed 1.Efficient / competitive? 2. Technologies / incentives? 36. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Types of livestock producers: incentives Large scale commercial enterprises Medium scale farmers Smallholders / self- employed 1.Efficient / competitive? 2. Technologies / incentives? 37. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Types of livestock producers: incentives Large scale commercial enterprises Medium scale farmers Smallholders / self- employed 1.Efficient / competitive? 2. Technologies / incentives? 38. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org % of rural households keeping livestock Livestock keepers in African countries 39. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Majority are smallholders: average / median herd (TLU) (0.80/0.50) (1.93/0.50) (0.47/0.13) (3.17/0.33) (2.20/0.88) (1.25/0.45) (1.41/0.60) Livestock keepers in African countries 40. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org (0.80/0.50) (1.93/0.50) (0.47/0.13) (3.17/0.33) (2.20/0.88) (1.25/0.45) (1.41/0.60) Livestock keepers in African countries What are the incentives for a farmer keeping one or few TLU to produce some surplus and sell it to the market? What are the benefits for her / his family (5 members)? Can all of them become successful livestock entrepreneurs? Wouldnt the market collapse? National / regional governments have a major role to play (targeting) Majority are smallholders: average / median herd (TLU) 41. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Outline 1. The issue and data source 2. African livestock markets vs other world regions 3. African livestock markets by product 4. African livestock markets by region 5. Who can benefit from / tap into livestock market opportunities? 6. Summary 42. Livestock Data Innovation in Africa Numbers for Livelihood Enhancement www.africalivestockdata.org Summary 1. African livestock markets are growing fast: they are as attractive as, if not more attractive than livestock markets in other world regions 2. Milk, beef and poultry markets will provide major business opportunities, which differ by geographical region 3. On paper, all types of livestock producers could be efficient and tap into growing market opportunities: but do all of them and in particular the smallholders have enough incentives to invest in livestock? 4. Policies and instititional reforms are ky to ensure that markets are utilized to promote an efficient and equitable growth of livestock 43. Joint project of the World Bank, FAO, AU-IBAR, ILRI with support from the Gates Foundation Thank you