investigation of turbine electric motor winding failure rate data
DESCRIPTION
Investigation of Turbine Electric Motor Winding Failure Rate Data. DSES-6070 HV3 and HV4 Statistical Methods for Reliability Engineering Fall 2007. Michael Joy Pratt and Whitney Global Service Engineering. 12/4/2007. System Description & Objective. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Investigation of Turbine Electric Motor
Winding Failure Rate Data
DSES-6070 HV3 and HV4 Statistical Methods for Reliability Engineering
Fall 2007
Michael Joy
Pratt and Whitney Global Service Engineering
12/4/2007
System Description & Objective• High reliability is critical to
electric motors• To illustrate several key
points, reliability data of electric motor failure will be evaluated.
• Compare part replacement strategies and determine their impact on system performance
• Three strategies compared:– Advanced Diagnostics
– Prognostics
– Replace as needed (Baseline)
Objective:
Methodology and Approach
• Evaluate failure data to determine reliability function using Minitab
• Compare Reliability for motors operating in different temperatures
• Model system using Monte Carlo simulation and compare to raw data.
• Investigation of part replacement strategies will be simulated in a Monte Carlo system and costs associated will be highlighted.
Raw Data:
Results/Discussion
Data
Perc
ent
10010
90
50
10
1
Data
Perc
ent
10010
99
90
50
10
1
Data
Perc
ent
1000100101
90
50
10
1
Data
Perc
ent
10010
99
90
50
10
1
VariableTemp80Temp100
Correlation CoefficientWeibull
0.986, 0.993
Lognormal0.982, 0.988Exponential
* , *Loglogistic
0.986, 0.993
Probability Plot for Temp80, Temp100LSXY Estimates-Censoring Column in Cens80, Cens100
Weibull Lognormal
Exponential Loglogistic
Data
Rate
120100806040200
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Table of Statistics
37 13
1.88903 47.7113 0.993 34 6
Shape Scale Corr F C3.63819 62.7956 0.986
VariableTemp80Temp100
Parametric Hazard Plot for Temp80, Temp100
Censoring Column in Cens80, Cens100 - LSXY EstimatesWeibull
Data
Perc
ent
100101
99
90
8070605040
30
20
10
5
3
2
1
Table of Statistics
37 13
1.88903 47.7113 0.993 34 6
Shape Scale Corr F C3.63819 62.7956 0.986
VariableTemp80Temp100
Probability Plot for Temp80, Temp100
Censoring Column in Cens80, Cens100 - LSXY EstimatesWeibull - 95% CI
Mean(MTTF) 42.3453
Mean(MTTF) 56.6179
For 100 Degrees:
For 80 Degrees: