intromountainwxclimate-fall2017 · 2017-08-10 · weather and topography form two sides of the fire...

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IntroductiontoMountainWeatherandClimate

Atmos 6250:MountainMeteorologyJimSteenburgh

DepartmentofAtmosphericSciencesUniversityofUtah

[email protected]

Reading

Meyers,M.,andW.J.Steenburgh,2013:Mountainweatherprediction:Phenomenologicalchallengesandforecast

methodology.MountainWeatherResearchandForecasting:RecentProgressandCurrentChallenges.T.Chow,S.deWekker,

andB.Snyder,Eds.,Springer,1–34.

Beniston,M.,2003:Climatechangeinmountainregions:Areviewofpossibleimpacts.ClimaticChange,59,5–31.

Questions

HowmuchoftheEarth’slandsurfaceiscoveredbymountains?

WhatfractionoftheEarth’spopulationlivesinmountainousareas?

GlobalReliefTopology*

*DoesnotincludeglaciatedareasofGreenlandandAntarctica

Source:Meybeck etal.(2001),MountainResearchandDevelopment

GlobalReliefTopology


Plains 14.2%

Mid-AltitudePlains8.4%

High-AltitudePlains 2.6%

Lowlands 11.4%

RuggedLowlands3.2%

Platforms 14.4%LowPlateaus 8.3%

Mid-AltitudePlateaus 3.4%

HighPlateaus 0.5%

VeryHighPlateaus0.5%

Hills 8.7%

LowMountains9.8%

Mid-AltitudeMountains 10.3%

HighMountains3.0%

VeryHighMountains1.4%

GlobalReliefTopology


MountainsOnly24.5%

Mountains&Hills33.2%

Mountains,Hills,&Plateaus45.9%

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Plains 17.8%



Lowlands 12.3%

RuggedLowlands5.5%

Platforms 10.0%LowPlateaus 4.3%


HighPlateaus 0.1%


Hills 13.1%

LowMountains14.8%


HighMountains3.4%

VeryHighMountains 1.3%

GlobalRunoff(Internal&External)


Topologyvs Runoff


MountainsOnly24.5%



MountainsOnly32.0%



Topology

Runoff

Plains 16.59%



Lowlands 15.23%

RuggedLowlands8.68%

Platforms 9.26%LowPlateaus4.33%


HighPlateaus0.46%


Hills 13.29%

LowMountains10.71%


HighMountains3.78%

VeryHighMountains 1.84%

GlobalPopulation


Runoffvs.Population


MountainsOnly32.0%



Runoff

Population

MountainsOnly26.0%



KeyPoints• Mountains,hills,plateauscovernearlyhalf(45.9%)thegloballandsurfaceandcontainnearlyhalf(46.5%)oftheworld’spopulation

• Mountainsandhillsgenerateagreaterfractionofrunoffrelativetotheirareathanotherlandforms,servingasglobal“watertowers”

• Youdon’tneedtoliveinmountainsorhillstobeaffectedbytheirweather,climate,andhydrologicimpacts

©SLTrib/Galbraith

MountainWeatherHazardsandEconomics

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ForecastChallengesinMountainousRegions

• Extremetopography,hydrologic,meteorological,climatological,andsocio-economiccontrasts

• Sparseorunrepresentativeobservations

• Weatherforecastsmustbespatiallydetailed

• Manymodelspoorlyresolveoraccountforlocaltopographic,atmospheric,land-surface,ecologic,andhydrologicprocesses

Questions

Whatweather-relatedhazardsarestronglyinfluencedbyorography?

Weather-RelatedHazardsStronglyInfluencedbyOrography

• Floodsandflashfloods• Debrisflows• Wildland andurban-interfacefires• Airquality• Snowstorms• Icestorms• Avalanches• Highwinds(e.g.,downslope,gap)• Severeconvectivestorms(hail,flashfloods,etc.)• Transportationandroadmaintenance

Floods

• Producedbyprolongedprecipitationevents• Oftenassociatedwithorographicprecipitationenhancement

• Modulationofintensityandspatialdistributionofprecipitationbytopographycandeterminethecatchmentbasinsaffected

• Additionalfactorscanincludesnowmelt,ecology,etc.

Example:FrontRangeSep2013

Source:NOAA(2014,http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/14colorado_floods.pdf)

8Fatalities19,000homes/buildingsdamaged1,500homes/buildingsdestroyed$3Billioninlosses

BigThompsonCanyonBefore

Source:http://www.denverpost.com/2013coloradofloods/ci_24115527/before-after-photos-colorado-flood-2013

©DenverPost

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BigThompsonCanyonAfter

Source:http://www.denverpost.com/2013coloradofloods/ci_24115527/before-after-photos-colorado-flood-2013

©DenverPost

ImpactsAwayfromMountains

Source:http://www.denverpost.com/2013coloradofloods/ci_24115527/before-after-photos-colorado-flood-2013,Map:Google

©DenverPost

Evans,CO

FlashFloods

• Rapidfloodingoftenproducedbyheavyrainassociatedwithconvectivestorms(althoughthereareothermechanisms)

• Mountainscanplayarolebyinfluencingtheformationandmovement(orlackthereof)ofdeepconvectionandmesoscale convectivesystems

Example:RapidCityFlood1972

238killed3,000injured1335homesdestroyedDamfailurescontributedtolosses

Source:http://www.weather.gov/unr/1972-06-09

FlashFloodExample:BlackHills1972

Source:http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-037-02,PhotosbyPerryRahn

Impactsalsofeltawayfrommountains(RapidCity)

Weather-RelatedDebrisFlows

• Heavymountainprecipitationorsnowmeltleadstoawater-ladenmassofsoilandrockflowing(sometimesviolently)downamountainside

• Initiatedtypicallyonslopes>25degrees– Canmoveintolowerangleareas

• Majorconcernonfire-denudedslopes

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Thistle,UTSlideofApril1983

Source:http://geochange.er.usgs.gov/sw/changes/natural/elnino/

4millionm3 ofdebris

ProducedlakethatfloodedThistle,UT-6,UT-89,andrailroad

Lakedrainedbytunneling

$400+Millionindamage

MostexpensivelandslideinUShistory

Easytoseetoday!

Wildland Fire

Weatherandtopographyformtwosidesofthefireenvironmenttriangleandplayanimportantroleingeneratingextremefirebehavior

Source:COMET

BiggerandMoreFrequentFires

Largewildfireactivityincreasedsuddenlyandmarkedlyinthemid-1980s,withhigherlarge-wildfirefrequency,longer

wildfiredurations,andlongerwildfireseasons.Thegreatestincreasesoccurredinmid-elevation,NorthernRockiesforests,whereland-usehistorieshaverelativelylittleeffectonfirerisksandarestronglyassociatedwithincreasedspringandsummertemperaturesandanearlierspringsnowmelt.

- Westerling etal.(2006),Science

Trends1984–2011byEcoregion

Source:Dennisonetal.(2014),GRL

BillionDollarWildfireDisasters• Oakland1991• CaliforniaFall1993• WesternUS1994• WesternUS2000• WesternUS2002• California2003• WesternUS2006• WesternUS2007• WesternUS2008• WesternUS2009• TX–NM-AZ2011• WesternUS2012• Valley-ButteFiresCA2015• WesternUS2015• Gatlinburg,TN2016

SanDiego,CA,Oct2003

Source:https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/,Photo:http://interwork.sdsu.edu/fire/purpose.htm

AirQuality

Pollutantsfrequentlytrappedinbasinsandvalleys,leadingtopoorairqualityepisodes

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Source:http://www.lung.org/our-initiatives/healthy-air/sota/city-rankings/most-polluted-cities.html

MostPollutedCities(PM2.5Episodes)

WesternUSBasinsandValleys

Snowstorms

• Mountainsaffectintensityanddistributionofsnowfall,aswellassnowlevelsthroughtheblockingandchannelingofairmasses

• Canbewidespreadorhighlylocalized

2003FrontRangeBlizzard

Source:http://www.pieglobal.com/statistics-and-observations-on-the-colorado-blizzard-of-2003/http://www.ucar.edu/communications/newsreleases/2004/blizzard.html(photobyCarlye Calvin)

March16–20,2003Upto5feetofsnow,lossesof>$300millionduelargelytoroofcollapses

IceStorms

• Mountainsaffecttheblocking,damming,andchannelingofshallow,coldairmasses,contributingtothedevelopmentofthermodynamicprofilesfavorableforsleetorfreezingrain

NorthAmericanIceStormof1998

Photos:JohnFergusonandEnvironmentCanada

January5–91998NortheastUSandeasternCanada

100+mmoffreezingraininsomeareas$4+Billionindamage

Channelingbyorographycritical(Roebber andGyakum 2003,MWR)

Avalanches

Weatherandtopographyformtwosidesoftheavalanchetriangle

Source:http://www.avalanche-center.org/

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Avalanches

Source:http://avalanche.state.co.us/accidents/statistics-and-reporting/

LittleCottonwoodCanyon

Image:Steenburgh(2014),CourtesyAdamNaisbitt

“Basedondatafromthe1991/92skiseason,theestimatedrevenuelossforskiresortsinupperLCCduringtheclosureofSR-210foravalanchehazardis$1.4millionday-1

[$2.3millionday-1 in2013dollars(Blattenberger andFowles 1995)]”– CampbellandSteenburgh(2014)

Little Cottonwood Canyon, 23 Dec 1988 (Courtesy National Weather Service)

HighWinds

• Mountainscanproducelocalflowaccelerationsanddamagingwinds

• Examplesincludegapwindsanddownslopewinds

• Inadditiontoconcernsforstructures,terrain-inducedturbulenceandrotorsareamajorhazardforaircraft

DownslopeWinds

Source:http://www.atmos.washington.edu/Atlas/phot_oro09.html,PhototakenbyRobertSymons&courtesyMortonG.Wurtele

DownslopewindandrotorcloudovertheOwensValleyeastoftheSierraNevada

SevereConvectiveStorms

• Yes,theseoccurinthemountainstoo

• Inaddition,theseverestormenvironmentofthehighplainsandportionsofEuropeandSouthAmericaarestronglyinfluencedbyregionaltopographiceffects

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TetonTornado

Source:Fujita(1989,MWR)

F4CrossedContinentalDivide@3070m

Damageswath39.2kmlongand2.5kmwide

TransportationandRoadMaintenance

• 70%ofUSroadsinsnowyregionsthatreceive13cmormoreofsnowayear

• 24%ofUSweather-relatedvehiclecrashesoccuronsnowy,slushy,oricypavement

• 15%occurduringsnowfallorsleet• 1,300fatalites/yr onsnowy,slushy,oricypavement• 116,800injuriesperyearonsnowy,slushy,oricypavement• Winterroadmaintenanceaccountsfor20%ofstateDOT

maintenancebudgets• Stateandlocalagenciesspendmorethan$2.3billiononsnowand

icecontrol• Notallmountainweatherrelated,butillustratesimportanceof

winterweather

Source:http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/weather_events/snow_ice.htm

MountainWeatherNotAllBad!

AvenuesFoothills,29November2010

MountainWeatherEconomics

• Outdoorrecreationgenerates– IntheUS• $646billioninconsumerspending• 6.1milliondirectjobs

– InthewesternUSincludingAlaskaandHawaii• 197.5billioninconsumerspending• 1.8milliondirectjobs• $61.1billioninsalariesandwages

Source:https://outdoorindustry.org/research-tools/outdoor-recreation-economy/,16Aug2015

SkiingandSnowboarding

• $7.5BillionindirectspendingatUSresorts• 57millionUSresortvisitsperyear• Backcountrygearnow~8%ofequipmentsales• Highlysensitivetoweatherandclimatevariability

Source:https://www.nsaa.org/,http://www.snowsports.org/research-surveys/snow-sports-fact-sheet/,16Aug2015

MountainsRegionsandGlobalWarming

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Questions

Whydowecareaboutclimatechangeinthemountains?

Whatdoyouthinksomeoftheimpactsofclimatechangewillbeinmountainous

regions?

ImportanceofMountains

• 40%oftheglobalpopulationlivesinwatershedsoriginatingfrommountains

• Mountainsareoftenecologicalislandswithuniquespeciesandstrongecosystemgradients

• Mountainsarepopularareasforecotourism

Source:Beniston (2003)

PotentialImpactsofClimateChangeinMountainousRegions

• Hydrology:Shiftsindistribution,seasonality,amount,andtype(e.g.,rainorsnow)ofprecipitationandrunoff

• Ecology:Shiftsandlossesofvegetation,forests,andbiodiversity

• HumanHealth:Shiftsinvector-bornediseases

• Tourism:Beneficialandadverseeffects


HydrologicConsequences• Moreprecipitationfallingasraininsteadofsnowin

areasnearthemeltingpointduringwinter

• Moresnowfallinsomecolder,highaltitudeandhighlatitudeareaswithfirstfewdegreesofwarming– Eventuallynearlyallaltitudeslose

• Substantiallossesofmostmountainglaciers

• Runoffchangesthatrequiringmitigationandadaption(easierforadvancedthandevelopingcountries)


ProjectionsforTschierva Glacier,Switzerland

Source:Beniston (2003),Courtesy:MaxMaisch,UniversityofZurich

EcosystemConsequences• Multifaceted– Likelylossofcoldestclimate/ecosystemzonesatmountainpeaks

– Migrationofsomespecieshigher– Lossofsomespeciesduetoadverseclimaticchangeandinvasivespecies• E.g.,troutcanonlygosohigh

– Survivalofsomespeciesinexistinghabitatareasduetolowerclimate-changesensitivity

• Insomeinstances,ecosystemdisturbanceisorwillhaveastrongerinfluencethanclimatechange


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HumanHealth

• Vector-bornediseaseslikemalariamaybecomemoreprevalentinsomemountainousandhighlandregions


ChangesintheincidencerateofMalariafora1°CtemperatureincreaseGreydenotesinvasionareasthatare

currentlymalariafree

Tourism• Directimpacts:Changesintheclimaticconditions

necessaryforrecreationactivities

• Indirectimpacts:Changestomountainlandscapesandsocio-economicshiftsindemandforactivitiesanddestinations

• Thesevarygeographicallyandbysector

• Maybeadverse(lossofsnowforskiing)andbeneficial(e.g.,longerhikingseason)


WinterSportsinNortheastUS• UnderA1Fiscenario(fossil-fuel

intensive)by2070–2099– Reliablesnowmobileseasons(>50days)virtuallyeliminated

– Only4of14geographicallydistributedskiareascanmaintaina100-dayskiseason(withmuchgreatersnowmakingrequirements)

– Consideranalysistobeconservative

Source:Scott(2008,Mitig.Adapt.Strat.Glob.Change)

Summary

• Mountainweatherimpactsarediverseandextendawayfrommountainousregions

• Globalwarmingwillhaveimportantimpactsonmountainclimate,ecology,humanhealth,andtourismthataremainlyadverse,butinsomecasesbeneficial

• Moreinthelecturestocome!

ReferencesBeniston,M.,2003:Climatechangeinmountainregions:Areviewofpossibleimpacts.ClimaticChange,59,5–31.

Blattenberger,G.,andR.Fowles,1995:Roadclosuretomitigateavalanchedanger:AcasestudyforLittleCottonwoodCanyon.Int.J.Forecasting,11,159–174,doi:10.1016/0169-2070(94)02008-D.

Dennison,P.E.,S.C.Brewer,J.D.Arnold,andM.A.Moritz,2014:LargewildfiretrendsinthewesternUnitedStates,1984–2011.Geophys.Res.Lett.,DOI10.1002/2014GL059576.

Fujita,T.T.,1989:TheTeton–Yellowstonetornadoof21July1987.Mon.Wea.Rev.,117,1913–1940.

Meyers,M.,andW.J.Steenburgh,2013:Mountainweatherprediction:Phenomenologicalchallengesandforecastmethodology.MountainWeatherResearchandForecasting:RecentProgressandCurrentChallenges.T.Chow,S.deWekker,andB.Snyder,Eds.,Springer,1–34.

Meybeck,M.,P.Green,andC.Vorosmarty,2001:Anewtypologyformountainsandotherreliefclasses:Anapplicationtoglobalcontinentalwaterresourcesandpopulationdistribution.MountainResearchandDevelopment,21,34–45.

NOAA2014:TherecordfrontrangeandeasternColoradofloodsofSeptember11–17,2013.Availableathttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/14colorado_floods.pdf.

Roebber,P.J.,andJ.R.Gyakum,2003:Orographicinfluencesonthemesoscale structureofthe1998IceStorm.Mon.Wea.Rev.,131,27–50.

Scott,D.,J.Dawson,andB.Jones,2008:ClimatechangevulnerabilityoftheUSNortheastwinterrecreation–tourismsector.Mitig.Adapt.Strat.Glob.Change,13,577–596.

Steenburgh,W.J.,2014:SecretsoftheGreatestSnowonEarth.UtahStateUniversityPress.186pp.

intromountainwxclimate-fall2017 · 2017-08-10 · weather and topography form two sides of the fire...

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