EC-LEDSENHANCING CAPACITY FOR LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

Introduction to Low Emission Development Strategies for Policymakers

Presentation Overview

• Definition and motivation for LEDS

• Qualities and components of a LEDS

• Steps of the LEDS process

• Additional resources

The development of these materials has been sponsored by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and implemented by the United States Government’s Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) and USAID’s Low Emissions Asian Development (LEAD) programs.

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What is a LEDS?

A low emission development strategy (LEDS) is a planning and implementation framework that seeks to enhance development and economic growth while

minimizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

• A LEDS provides a mechanism for incorporating climate-change considerations into the functions of national and subnational governments.

• National development goals serve as the foundation of LEDS plans and actions.

• A LEDS seeks to produce valuable social, economic, and environmental benefits alongside GHG mitigation. Examples:

Reduced relianceon fossil fuels

Increasedemploymentopportunities

Enhanced environmentalsustainability and climate resiliency

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LEDS, Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), and Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs)

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LEDSStrategies to reduce

GHG emissions while enhancing development

Development and mitigation focus

Long-term (e.g., through 2050)

Often economy-wide

NDCsGHG mitigation goals,

policies, or projects

Primary focus is mitigation

2025-2030 timeframe, updated and scaled

up every 5 years

Sectoral or cross-sectoral focus

NAMAsStrategies, policies,

projects, or pledges to reduce GHG emissions

Primary focus is mitigation

Can be a means to reach near-term goals

Often focuses on specific projects or

policies

LEDS represent one of several internationally-utilized mechanisms to support climate change mitigation and can provide an development-focused, overarching

framework for NDCs, NAMAs, and other climate action.

Motivation: Business-as-Usual GHG Emissions

• Global business-as-usual (BAU) emissions projections indicate that GHG emissions, particularly from developing countries, will increase dramatically in the 21st century.

• Without additional GHG mitigation efforts, surface temperature warming is more likely than not to exceed 4 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100.

• Risks associated with this BAU level of warming include:– Substantial species extinction– Global and regional food insecurity– Adverse human health impacts– Limited potential for adaptation in some cases

“Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further warming and long-lasting changes in all components of the climate system,

increasing the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.”

—Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

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Growth, Development, and GHG emissions

A LEDS seeks to decouple development and economic growth from a corresponding increase in GHG emissions.

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A LEDS is a strategic economic development and environmental planning framework that articulates actionable programs and policies to put a country on

a climate-resilient development path while working toward long-term measurable GHG emission reductions.

Meeting GHG Mitigation and Other Development Goals

Examples of strategic national development goals which can be achieved through a LEDS:

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Increasedaccess to

modern energy

Reduced human and environmental health

hazards posed by climate change

Increased economic output through new

industries and markets

A LEDS is distinguished by its joint focus on both enhancing national development goals and reducing GHG emission

trajectories.

Essential Qualities of a LEDS

• Tailored specifically to a country’s unique development situation and needs

Country-owned and Country-driven

• Built on transparent, internationally accepted analytical techniques and underlying dataAnalytically Sound

• Inclusive of all significant development goals, emissions sources, economic sectors, and stakeholdersComprehensive

• Considers the impacts and incorporates a planning horizon several decades into the future

Forward Looking and Long-term

• Stakeholders can readily adopt and implement the strategyActionable

• Results in a significant change in trajectory from the business-as-usual GHG emissions scenarioTransformative

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Organizing, Developing, and Implementing a LEDS

• Stakeholder engagement is critical to all steps in the process

• Feedback loops make the LEDS process iterative

This process is illustrative.Each country undertakes a process best suited for its

unique context.

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Input

Feed

back

1. Organize LEDS Process

3. Analyze Options

4. Prioritize Actions

5. Implementand Monitor

Stakeholder Engagement

2. Assess the Current Situation

Example: Approaches used to communicate South Africa’s LEDS to

stakeholders

The LEDS Process: Stakeholder Engagement

Stakeholders in a LEDS include government, private sector, civil society, academia, and others.

Stakeholder engagement enables:

• Cross-agency and cross-sectoral buy-in and coordination

• Data-collection, analysis, and deliberation across a variety of sectors

• Mediation of diverse stakeholder positions and interests, including identifying and addressing tradeoffs

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Analysis and Technical Documentation of LEDS Impacts

Summaries and Highlights of Activities and Studies

Stakeholder Workshops

Stakeholder Training and Education

Videos

Newsletters

Engaging stakeholders in every part of LEDS design and implementation is

essential to creating a comprehensive and country-owned LEDS.

Adapted from Green Growth in Practice: Lessons Learned from Country Experience. June 2014.

The LEDS Process: Organizing the LEDS Process

• Establish a vision and align with development goals– A clear vision for a long-term, transformative LEDS is driven by high-

level political support and consensus building with stakeholders at all levels.

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• Design an institutional structure– A strong cross-sectoral, whole-

of-government institutional structure will support a robust and mainstreamed LEDS process.

• Integrate national and subnational planning– Subnational governments are

often best placed to identify local needs and benefits and can reinforce national policies to help reach higher goals.

Example: Institutional Framework for Low Carbon, Green Growth in South Korea

Source: Korea Green Growth Partnership. Green Growth in Action: Knowledge Note Series 01. http://www.greengrowthknowledge.org/sites/default/files/kggp_knowledge%20note%20series_01.pdf

Partnership

Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth

President Senior Secretary for Green Growth

National Strategy for Green Growth

Presidential Committee on Green Growth

Planning, Coordination, Assessment

5-Year Plan for Green Growth

Annual Action Plan

Local Governme

nt

Central Governme

nt

Private Sector

Partnership

The LEDS Process: Assessing the Current Situation

• Assess connections with existing plans, policies, and programs – What existing plans, policies, and

strategies can a LEDS build on?– What could impede or enhance low

emission development?

• Collect, manage, develop and evaluate data– Establish a national GHG inventory,

which includes emissions from all economic sectors as well as removals by carbon sinks

“You can’t manage what you don’t measure!”

GHG inventories support better-informed, data-driven economic

and climate policy decisions

A LEDS is informed and shaped by existing policies and technologies, existing national development and GHG emission reduction goals, emission trends, and lessons learned from previous policy reforms.

Source: Thailand’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2011)

Example: Thailand’s National GHG Inventory for 2000, with Energy Sector Breakdown (Tg CO2 eq)

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Waste, 9.32, 4%

Land use, land use change, and forestry, -7.9, 3%

Agriculture, 51.88, 23%

Industrial processes, 16.39, 7%

Energy industries, 66.44, 42%

Oil and natural gas, 4.56, 3%

Solid fuels, 0.67, <1%

Agriculture/forestry/fishing, 6.67, 4%

Residential, 5.58, 4%

Transport, 44.7, 28%

Manufacturing industries and

construction, 30.78, 19%

Energy, 159.4, 70%

Total emissions: 229.08 Tg CO2 eq

The LEDS Process: Analyzing Options• Business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios

–Represent the hypothetical emissions trajectory if a LEDS is not undertaken.

– In many cases, assume emissions will grow as a function of gross domestic product (GDP)

• Low emission development scenarios–Provide an alternative picture of how

the future might unfold if the actions in a LEDS are implemented.

–Clear assumptions, appropriate data, and stakeholder engagement are critical inputs to robust, inclusive, and credible low emission scenario analysis.

• Development impact assessment–Explore the link between economic,

environmental and social development objectives and LEDS actions. 13

The choice of specific tools and methods to analyze LEDS options

depends on the questions of interest, and should reflect country priorities, data availability, and local expertise.

Example: South Korea’s BAU scenario and low emissions development target

Source: First Biennial Update Report of the Republic of Korea under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. (2014).

The LEDS Process: Prioritizing Actions and Planning for Implementation

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Prioritization criteria should cover a broad set of metrics beyond GHG mitigation potential, reflecting a country’s development priorities.

Example: Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Curve for Mexico

Source: United States Agency for International Development. (2013). Updated Analysis on Mexico’s Baseline, Marginal Abatement Cost Curve and Project Portfolio.

Example criteria: • Economic costs

and benefits• Development

impacts• Technical and

institutional capacity for implementation

• Market readiness• Political and

financial feasibility• Other risks• GHG mitigation

potential

The LEDS Process: Planning for Implementation

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Example Process for Developing an Implementation Plan

• Gain country leadership endorsement to implement high-priority actionsLeadership

• Identify responsible agencies for implementing actions, and empower agencies to develop and carry out detailed plans

Institutional Governance Structures

• Establish stakeholders forums for implementation plans and design a coherent, economy-wide strategy

Engage Stakeholders

• Work with Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Planning to ensure budget line items for implementation

Finance

• Establish a process for regular stakeholder review of implementation progressPerformance Monitoring

Implementation plans that incorporate strategies to generate investment opportunities, improve returns on investment, and reduce risks of implementing high-priority actions can help attract adequate financing to implement a LEDS.

The LEDS Process: Implementation through Policy Design

• LEDS implementation is founded on effective policy design, which creates an enabling environment in which to undertake LEDS projects and programs.

• A balanced LEDS policy portfolio includes a mix of sector-specific and economy-wide, national and sub-nationally focused, short- and long-term mechanisms. Examples:

Enabling policies

Green infrastructure investments

Innovation and R&D

Education and awareness

Green skills or jobs developments

Mandating policies

Efficiency, pollution, and energy

performance standards

Land regulations

Incentivizing policies

Environmental taxes and subsidies

Pollution charges

Full-cost pricing of water and energy

Feed-in tariffs

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The LEDS Process: Monitoring and Evaluation

Effective monitoring and evaluation:• Increases transparency

and government accountability

• Enhances public trustand stakeholder confidence

• Informs adjustment of actions and targets based on real-world conditions

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Adapted from "Green Growth in Practice: Lessons Learned from Country Experiences.” June 2014. Available at http://ggbp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Green-Growth-in-Practice-062014-Full.pdf.

Identify responsible agencies for coordinating monitoring and evaluation

Work with lead agencies to develop detailed

implementation plans for each measure

Modify targets identified in the pathways analysis to

be specific and measurable

Determine measurement and monitoring system

needed to assess impacts of LEDS implementation

Create indicators and measures and a

monitoring system

Publicly report results for monitoring and evaluation

on a regular basis

Illustrative Process for Establishing a Monitoring and Evaluation System

Summary: The LEDS Process and its Components

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Each country undertakes a process best suited for its unique context. However, LEDS have several common components:

1. Organize LEDS Process

3. Analyze Options

4. Prioritize Actions

5. Implementand Monitor

Stakeholder Engagement

2. Assess the Current Situation

GHG inventory(s)

BAU scenario(s)

Alternative emissions scenario(s)

High-priority actions

Implementation plan(s)

Framework for monitoring and evaluation

Key Components of a LEDS

Examples of LEDS Efforts Around the World

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Republic of Indonesia

At least 115 countries are developing LEDS, with support from over 75 international institutions

Additional Resources

• Asia LEDS Partnership (ALP) http://asialeds.org

• Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS)https://www.ec-leds.org/

• Green Growth Best Practices (GGBP) Reporthttp://www.ggbp.org/report/green-growth-practice-lessons-country-experiences

• Greening the Gridhttp://greeningthegrid.org

• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Reporthttp://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/

• International Partnership on Mitigation and Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV)http://mitigationpartnership.net/low-emission-development-strategies-and-plans-leds-0

• LEDS Global Partnership http://ledsgp.org

• Low Emissions Asian Developmenthttp://www.lowemissionsasia.org

• UNDP Low-Emission Climate-Resilient Development Strategies Resourceshttp://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/librarypage/environment-energy/low_emission_climateresilientdevelopment.html

• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Changehttp://unfccc.int/2860.php

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EC-LEDSENHANCING CAPACITY FOR LOW EMISSION DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES

For more information, please visit www.ec-leds.org

and http://en.openei.org/wiki/Gateway:Low_Emissio

n_Development_Strategies

CROSS-CUTTING ISSUESAdditional Slides

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Linking LEDS and Climate Resilience

• Include representatives focused on climate change adaptation in LEDS stakeholder engagement efforts

Stakeholder engagement

• Consider climate impacts and resilience into target-setting and institution-building activities

Organize LEDS process

• Review climate adaptation plans and vulnerability assessments as part of the LEDS stocktaking exercises

Assess the Current Situation

• Assess the vulnerability of mitigation sectors and options to climate change

Analyze Options

• Incorporate criteria related to climate resilience into prioritization of actions

Prioritize Actions

• Include indicators for relevant climate impacts into the monitoring framework

• Determine whether adaptation funding streams can be leveraged for actions that have mitigation benefits

Implementand Monitor

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Considerations for Integrating Climate Resilience in the LEDS process

Source: USAID Climate Change Resilient Development, draft paper.

Example Strategies to Address Barriers to National and Subnational LEDS Integration

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Source: ”What National Governments Can Do To Accelerate Subnational Action on Climate.” June 2014. Available at http://prod-http-80-800498448.us-east-1.elb.amazonaws.com/w/images/8 /88/LEDSGP_SNI_Paper_Bonn_2014.pdf.

Addressing Financial Barriers

Establish dedicated funding mechanisms for low emission action by subnational governments

Addressing Political and Institutional Barriers

Provide clear mandates for low emission development to subnational governments and encourage integration and coordination with other priorities and decision-making structures

Addressing Information and Knowledge Barriers

Improve access to data and information

Provide venues for exchange of lessons learned and good practices

Addressing Capacity and Skills Barriers

Provide training to enhance technical skills and knowledge development

Addressing Gender in LEDS Design, Implementation and Monitoring

Green Growth

1. Organize LEDS Process

3. Analyze Options

4. Prioritize Actions

5. Implementand Monitor

Stakeholder Engagement

2. Assess the Current Situation

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GENDER

• Assess the different implications of

green growth policy and programs

for women and men.

• Understand women and men’s

knowledge concerning risks and

coping mechanisms, gender-specific

needs, choices, and technology uses.

• Seek out and engage with

appropriate stakeholders (women’s

organizations, female leaders).

• Ensure that women participate

equally alongside men, take

leadership positions, and that

their voices are being heard.