introduction to climate change and its impact on society jagadish shukla center of ocean-land-...

Introduction to Climate Change Introduction to Climate Change and its Impact on Societyand its Impact on Society

Jagadish ShuklaJagadish Shukla

Center of Ocean-Land-Atmosphere studies

Lecture2: Aug 28, 2008

CLIM 101: Weather, Climate and Global Society

The Climate of a Planet Depends On …The Climate of a Planet Depends On …1. Energy from the Sun

(energy from the interior)

2. Planetary Albedo

3. Speed of Planet’s Rotation

4. Mass of the Planet

5. Radius of the Planet

6. Atmospheric Composition

7. Ocean-Land, Topography

S

M

a

H2O, CO2, O3, clouds

h*


Earth’s Energy BalanceEarth’s Energy Balance

Solar Radiation

S = 1380 Wm-2

(plane, parallel)

Assume radiative equilibrium, so that

INCOMING ENERGY = OUTGOING ENERGY

Measured albedo () = 0.31Measured planetary E = 237 Wm-2

Implied TE = 255 K

Measured surface Es = 390 Wm-2

Atmosphere absorbs 153 Wm-2

Measured Ts = 288 K

Planetary Emission

Ts (288K) > Te (255K) … Greenhouse Effect (H2O, CO2)Life on planet Earth!

Recent analyses of satellite measurements do not indicate a long-term trend in solar irradiance (the amount of energy received by the sun), Frohlich and Lean (2005)


Solar IrradianceSolar Irradiance

Examples of Short-Term Climate Variability


1998 JFM SST [oC]

JFM SST Climatology [oC]

1998 JFM SST Anomaly [oC]

El Nino/Southern OscillationEl Nino/Southern Oscillation


Summer 2003 European Heat Wave: Summer 2003 European Heat Wave: Result of Global Warming? Result of Global Warming?

• The immediate cause of the heat-wave was a persistent high pressure center over Northwest Europe.

• There is currently no evidence that human influence on climate makes such circulation patterns more likely.

Summer 2003 temperatures relative to 2000-2004


Greenland Grace monthly mass solutions. For the entire Greenland ice sheet, for April 2002 to April 2006, after scaling the results and removing the mean. The blue error bars include only the contributions from uncertainties in the GRACE gravity fields. Velicogna and Wahr (2006)

Greenland Ice MassGreenland Ice Mass

Thanks: R. Cicerone

Examples of Long-Term Climate Variability


1 Ma1 Ma

• Mechanism: Orbital Parameters


120 ka120 ka

• Mechanism: Orbital ParametersCenter of Ocean-Land-

Atmosphere studies

18 ka18 ka



LAST LAST TWO MILLENIATWO MILLENIA OR SO … OR SO …

2000 Year Northern Hemisphere Reconstruction of Surface Air Temperatures2000 Year Northern Hemisphere Reconstruction of Surface Air Temperatures

Tem

per

atu

re A

nom

aly

(oC

)

LAST CENTURY OR SO …LAST CENTURY OR SO …



Carbon CycleCarbon CycleCurrent Global Carbon Cycle (2000-2005)Current Global Carbon Cycle (2000-2005)

Pools of carbon are in Gt and annual fluxed in Gt C y-1. Background or pre-anthropogenic pools and fluxes are in black. The human perturbation to the pools and fluxed are in red. (updated from Sabine et al. 2004)


Net CO2 FluxNet CO2 Flux

Takahashi et al. 2002


CO2 emissions (Gigatons of Carbon, Gt C), IPCC 20071990: 6.4 Gt C (=23.5 Gt CO2 ), 2000-2005: 7.2 Gt C (=26.4 Gt CO2)

Monthly Mean Carbon DioxideMonthly Mean Carbon DioxideNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse GasesNOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases


Atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratios determined from the continuous monitoring programs at the 4 NOAA CMDL baseline observations. Principal investigator: Dr. Pieter Tans. NOAA CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases. Boulder, Colorado. (303) 497-6678

Courtesy of UCAR

1.0º C


WarmingWarming

1. Greenhouse gases (CO1. Greenhouse gases (CO22, CH, CH44, N, N22O)O)• CO2: Carbon Dioxide : Emission from fossil fuel• CH4: Methane : Agriculture• N2O: Nitrous Oxide

2. Land use change2. Land use change

CoolingCooling

1.1. AerosolsAerosols• Man made/Natural• Volcanoes

※※Rate of increase of GHG is largest in 10,000 yearsRate of increase of GHG is largest in 10,000 years

(Net) Global Warming (Net) Global Warming


Global mean, volume mean ocean Global mean, volume mean ocean temperaturetemperatureCourtesy of Tom Delworth (GFDL)

GFDL Model Simulations


Mean of 15 Models Surface Air Temperature Mean of 15 Models Surface Air Temperature DifferenceDifference(Sresa1b YR 71-100) minus (20c3m 1969-98), Global Average = (Sresa1b YR 71-100) minus (20c3m 1969-98), Global Average =

2.612.61

Impact of Weather and Climate Impact of Weather and Climate Variations on SocietyVariations on Society


Area Area impactedimpactedbybyNargisNargis

Population affected by Population affected by NARGISNARGIS

Recent Increasing Trends in Recent Increasing Trends in Frequency of Natural Frequency of Natural

HazardsHazards

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

Windstorms Floods

Extreme Heat Events Drought

Great Natural Disasters Great Natural Disasters 1950 – 20051950 – 2005

Number of eventsNumber of events

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Others (Heat wave, cold wave, forest fire)

Flood

StormEarthquake/tsunami, volcanic eruption

© 2006 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re

Weather, Climate and Global Society• Weather, climate and agricultureWeather, climate and agriculture

• Weather, climate and energyWeather, climate and energy

• Weather, climate and transportationWeather, climate and transportation

• Weather, climate and healthWeather, climate and health

• Weather, climate and architectureWeather, climate and architecture

• Weather, climate and cultureWeather, climate and culture

• Weather, climate and sustainabilityWeather, climate and sustainability


HumansEcosystems

WeatherClimate



World PopulationWorld PopulationWorld Population from AD 1 to 2002

Source: Data from Maddison (2001), Calculated using data from Maddison (2002)

World Income from 1500 to 2001

World Income per Capita from 1500 to 2001

Since 1750, population increased 10 times; Production per person also increased 10 times; Therefore, total world economic production increased 100 times.

Therefore, the impact of human activity on life-sustaining system on earth increased enormously.

Planet under StressPlanet under Stress

‘Common Wealth’ by Jeffrey Sachs, 2008


Wagner, 2002

U. S. Flow of Raw Materials U. S. Flow of Raw Materials by weight 1900-2000by weight 1900-2000

The use of raw materials in the U. S. increased dramatically during the last 100 years


Global PovertyGlobal Poverty

‘Common Wealth’ by Jeffrey Sachs, 2008

From 1820 to 1992

Global Well-Being (sustainability, security

and the future of civilization)

The Global ChallengeThe Global Challenge

Inequality and Extreme Poverty

Human PopulationGrowth

EnvironmentalDegradation


THANK YOU!

ANY QUESTIONS?


introduction to climate change and its impact on society jagadish shukla center of ocean-land-...

Documents