introduction to causal analysis farrokh alemi ph.d
TRANSCRIPT
Introduction to Causal Analysis
Introduction to Causal Analysis
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
What is a cause?What is a cause?
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
What is a cause?What is a cause?
Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.
for exercise
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
Fitting in clothes one size smaller
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
… because I want to be healthy.
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
My commitment and will power makes me exercise.
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?
• “Causes” are misunderstood – Not goals– Not reasons why– Not your motivation
What is a Cause?Root
Cause
Immediate cause
Relapse
Analyze & Understan
d
Change
• Events– Not physical objects
• Absent before, present now
Cause and Effects Are Events
My spouse makes me exercise
My spouse reminded me to exercise
Causes are Temporary Events
All Causes Describe a Mechanism
Root caus
e… Direct
causeEffec
t
All Causes Describe a Mechanism
Watching a late
show
Sleeping late
Waking up late
No exercise before work
• No sure relationship
The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain
• No sure relationship
The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain
Watching a late
show
Sleeping late
Waking up late
Exercise
before work
• ↑ effect
Causes Increase Likelihood of Effects
Vacation
Exercise
Causes Precede Effects
Vacation
Exercise
Causes Precede Effects
Anticipation of going on vacation
Exercise
Effect
Cause
Other cause
s
Everything Is Not a Cause
Exercise
Bike to
work
Make a bike route
Everything Is Not a Cause
Exercise
Bike to
work
Everything Is Not a Cause
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
Got up early
Phone call
No exercise
I got up early and almost did my morning exercise before I got interrupted by a call.
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
I could have exercised if I had gotten up early.
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
I would have exercised if I were on vacation.
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
Instead of getting up early to exercise I took my time and made a good breakfast.
• Absent cause– Almost– I could if I wanted to– I would have …– Instead of …
Counterfactual
Get a
ball
Invite friends
Play soccer
Get right cloth
es
Causes Working In Concert
Sell car and
bike to work
Give up space and park at far end of the lot
Exercise
Alternative Causes
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
New Thinking
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
A cause is an event that occurs sometimes
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Precedes the effect
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Co-occurs frequently with the effect
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Absent cause, absent effect
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Directly leads to the effect
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Describes a mechanism
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Can be modified
Take Home LessonTake Home Lesson
Search for Causes
An event that occurs sometimes
Frequently precedes the effect
Describes a mechanism
Can be modified