introduction to belgravia

An introduction to our services

Belgravia Wealth Management is an introducer to GSR Finance which is an appointed representative of Home of Choice ltd which is authorised and

regulated by the Financial Services Authority. Redwither Business Centre, Redwither Business Park, Wrexham, LL13 9XR

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A shortage of new homes for sale

has ended house price falls, accord-

ing to figures published today, adding

weight to claims that the market has

begun to stabilise. Hometrack, the

housing market analyst, said that

the average house price stayed the

same from April to May at £155,600,

the first time in 20 months that its sur-

vey has not shown a month-on-month

decline in prices.

While less positive than the 1.2 %

price rise recorded by Nationwide

over the same period, the latest

figures support the view that the pace

of decline is at least slowing, boosted

mostly by an increase in demand

relative to a lack of supply.

Hometrack said that the number of

buyers registering with estate agents

was up 21% in the three months to

May, while the number of new prop-

erties listed increased by only 2.5%

The average time for a property to

stay on the market fell from 10.4 to

9.9 weeks from April to May, while

the percentage of postcodes where

there had been a price decrease

over the past month fell from 32 per

cent to 13%. Supply remains

severely restricted in the short term

due to contraction in the construction

industry, this implies that growing

demand will force prices up.

Demand for houses applies brakes on prices

UK to run out of houses in 2009 Just 133,710 new homes

were completed in England

in the year to the end of

March, according to data

released by the government.

That is almost 90,000 less

than the government’s own

target of 220,000. As a

result, housing in England is

heading for a supply crisis

far greater than expected

according to property-

finder.com. In fact,England

will literally run out of

homes this year. There will

be 39,000 fewer homes

than households by the

end of 2009 on current

trends. The picture will not

improve until 2016. What’s

more, the number of new

home starts plummeted to

just 90,000 during the

year as the recession

crushed the housebuild-

ing industry. This sug-

gests that completions in

the coming year are

likely to miss the govern-

ment’s target by well

over 100,000 homes.

JUNE

Market focus

from

Belgravia

House price growth

Time to sell (weeks)

Viewings per sale

Base rate

Mortgage lending

Repossessions

Housebuilding

-10.3%

11

13

0.5%

-65.3%

41%

-8.6%

UK market at a glance

Lending index % Year on Year

Repossessions index % Year on Year

Housebuilding index rolling 12 mnths

Nationwide says house prices

are up as does Right-

move.co.uk, but Halifax, the

Land Registry, Hometrack,

Department of Communities

and Local Government and

Financial Times all report

house price decreases - which

is right?

The truth is, they all measure

different things; Nationwide and

Halifax gleam their information

from their own approvals, the

DCLG’s information is put

together from select Council of

Mortgage Lenders data, Right-

move.co.uk uses asking prices

from its registered estate

agents, the Land Registry uses

property transactions over a 3-

month period and Hometrack

surveys estate agents in Eng-

land and Wales across every

postcode. Then the FT index

takes an average of all of them.

All these are perfectly accept-

able ways of collecting and

measuring housing data. But

they all give wildly differing re-

sults: Rightmove.co.uk says

house prices are up 2.4% at the

moment, but the FT says house

prices are down 1.1%. That’s a

3.5% difference - which, in real

terms is thousands of pounds.

Nationwide and Halifax are

instant reactions to that month’s

mortgage lending (Halifax

measue stats from 1st to 31st

but Nationwide measure 20th to

20th)but are biased to their

brands, while the Land Registry

lags behind with 3-month old

data. Hometrack and Right-

move.co.uk use asking prices,

which as we all know can

change considerably before

the deal is finalised. DCLG

takes snapshots of lenders,

which could create a skew and

the FT is an average of aver-

ages, which could miss detail.

And all of them will tell you

that their method is best.

The big plus point for the mar-

ket once again comes down to

the fact that we are due to run

out of houses in England

before Christmas, so there is

only one way for all indices to

go.

measure of credit risk – in May

dropped below levels on Friday Sep-

tember 12, the last price before the

US investment bank collapsed on the

following Monday. This spread is the

most important gauge of risk in the

money markets because it measures

the difference between risk-free over-

night market rates and three-month

Libor, the key benchmark interest

rate banks charge each other for

Credit risk – measured by key

money market spreads – has for

the first time fallen below levels

last seen before the collapse of

Lehman Brothers banks increas-

ingly lend to each other amid

growing confidence that the

worst of the financial crisis is

over. The gap between London

interbank offered rates and

overnight market rates – a pure

lending. The narrowing of this

spread suggests fears of a finan-

cial meltdown – prevalent after the

US investment bank went bank-

rupt – have sharply receded.

So banks are quietly trading be-

tween themselves again leaving

the door open to more lending in

the UK… we even saw the first

95% product in May… another

gentle move forward.

House Price Indices—which is right?

Money market rates fall to pre-Lehman levels

A final thought; the inflatable boy with inflatable friends at an inflatable school took a pin with him one

day, the inevitable happened. His teacher said, not only have you let yourself down but you have also let

your friends down the school down…..

Page 2

Market focus

Belgravia Wealth Management is an introducer to GSR Finance which is an appointed

representative of Home of Choice Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the Financial

Services Authority


introduction to belgravia

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