introduction

This software is recommended by MicrosoftProject.ru

MicrosoftProject.ru is largest Russian language portal about Microsoft Office Project. MicrosoftProject.ru united more then 10 000 professionals in Microsoft Office Project.

Project Management Company

Turbo Risk Manager 2.0for Microsoft Office Project 2003/2007

Easy-to-use and inexpensive tool that allows you to understand the risk of your projects

For any questions contact [email protected]

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Contents

1 INTRODUCTION 4

2 INSTALLATION AND QUICK TEST 4

2.1 For the First Time 4

2.2 Quick Test and Brief Overview of the Program 5

2.3 Remove Turbo Risk Manager 6

2.4 Installation Troubleshooting 62.4.1 Installing on Windows Vista 62.4.2 Custom Policy problems 72.4.3 Add-Ins Trusted publishers and Macro Security problems 72.4.4 Add-Ins blocking and "Add-in is not loaded" problem 82.4.5 Old version of software or damaged installation 10

2.5 Program activation for commercial users 10

3 QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE IN MICROSOFT OFFICE PROJECT 12

3.1 PERT Analysis in Microsoft Office Project 12

3.2 Limitation of PERT in Microsoft Office Project. Advantages of Monte Carlo method 12

4 EASY-TO-USE SCHEDULE PROGNOSIS. ENTER DATA FOR PERT ANALYSIS AND TURBO RISK MANAGER 13

5 BUDGET PROGNOSIS 14

6 TURBO RISK MANAGER SETTINGS 14

6.1 Number of iterations and precision 15

6.2 Desired risk level 15

6.3 Other settings 15

7 FIELDS USED BY TURBO RISK MANAGER 15

7.1 Input Fields for calculation 16

7.2 Output Fields for calculation 16

8 Technical Support Info 17

Turbo Risk Manager 2.0 © 2007-2008 Project Management Company

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TURBO RISK MANAGER™ FOR MICROSOFT OFFICE PROJECT END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT

CAREFULLY READ THE FOLLOWING LICENSE AGREEMENT.

LICENSE GRANT

Project Management Company hereby grant you a nonexclusive license to use one copy of the Software on any single computer for single user.

Educational License for this software is FREE.

Educational version is limited by maximum number of project tasks and precision of calculation.

Professional version of this software for commercial use needs activation.

LIMITED REMEDY

Our entire liability and your exclusive remedy for breach of the foregoing warranty shall be, at our option, to either:

• return the price you paid, or

• repair or replace the Software or media that do not meet the foregoing warranty if it is returned to us with a copy of your receipt.

IN NO EVENT WILL WE BE LIABLE TO YOU FOR ANY DAMAGES, INCLUDING ANY LOST

PROFITS, LOST SAVINGS, OR OTHER INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES ARISING

FROM THE USE OR THE INABILITY TO USE THE SOFTWARE (EVEN IF WE OR AN AUTHORIZED

DEALER OR DISTRIBUTOR HAS BEEN ADVISED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THESE DAMAGES), OR

FOR ANY CLAIM BY ANY OTHER PARTY.


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1 Introduction

Turbo Risk Manager (TRM) is easy-to-use tool that allows you to understand the risk of your projects.

Turbo Risk Manager can analyze risk conditions and calculate optimal schedule and budget for your project.

Turbo Risk Manager is developed to make MS Project perform PMI’s “A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (The PMBOK Guide)” by professional Monte Carlo Risk Simulation.

TRM is easy to use. For schedule prognosis Turbo Risk manager use the same data as standard PERT analysis included in Microsoft Office Project. You do not need to reenter you data, just one click and you give schedule calculated by professional Monte Carlo method.

TRM integration with standard PERT analysis provide you all with standard Microsoft Office Project features like as Optimistic, Estimated and Pessimistic Gantt.

2 Installation and Quick Test

2.1 For the First Time 1) Close Microsoft Office Project

2) Launch the setup.exe file

3) Microsoft installer will check your system for necessary updates. Installer may prompt you to install some system updates for Microsoft Office add-ins like this

4) Setup.exe will ask you, if you want install program only for you or for all users in this computer. If you installing on Windows Vista install for all users or turn ON User Account Control (UAC). See Installation Troubleshooting for details.

5) Next, the installer will copy files to your hard drive (Program Files\Project Management Company), and register the new software (in your system registry) as an add-in for MS Project (2003 or 2007).


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6) The next time you launch MS Project, you will see on new button “Turbo Risk Manager” PERT toolbar. If you cannot see this button, see Installation Troubleshooting

7) Please make quick test after installation

2.2 Quick Test and Brief Overview of the Program1) Open TRMQuickTest.mpp project from the source folder

2) Show PERT toolbar (if PERT toolbar is hidden)

3) Click “Turbo Risk Manager” button. You'll see Settings form.

4) Don’t change program settings. Use default settings (75% - moderate risk etc.)

5) Click “Start” button. After calculation task durations should change.

6) Click Calculate PERT on PERT panel, and then click Yes in appeared dialog box.

7) Standard PERT Calculation should display shorter task durations than Turbo Risk Manager. Standard PERT calculation assumes higher risk.

8) Click “Turbo Risk Manager” button. You'll see "Settings" form. Change Probability to 50% and click Start. Calculated durations must be shorter and close to previous calculated PERT. Monte Carlo method is more accurate than PERT, because durations are slightly different.

9) If Turbo Risk Manager calculated durations during previous steps then test passed successfully. Turbo Risk Manager 2.0 © 2007-2008 Project Management Company

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Note

Monte Carlo prognosis is slightly changed for every next calculation on same data. It’s normal behavior from Monte Carlo algorithm based on random function and trials. Precision of prognosis depends on the value of "Number of Calculation iterations". Use 50 iteration for testing (limited in free version of software).

2.3 Remove Turbo Risk ManagerTurbo Risk manager can be uninstalled via the Add/Remove Programs control panel. The entry in control panel window is called “Turbo Risk Manager”. Control panel will remove all registry entries and delete the files in …Program Files\Project Management Company\TurboRiskManager directory. It will also delete the directory, unless you have put other files there.

2.4 Installation TroubleshootingIf you cannot see “Turbo Risk Manager” button on PERT panel after restarting Microsoft Office Project then your installation need troubleshooting.

If Turbo Risk Manager is working normally DO NOT use instruction below. This instruction is only for troubleshooting.

Turbo Risk Manager 2.0 have large installation base and installation problems are very rare. However we collect all problem solutions even for exotic installation cases from our practice.

Use troubleshooting instructions in order by probability of problem:

1) Installing on Windows Vista

2) Custom Policy Problem

3) Add-ins and Macro security problem

4) Add-ins blocking problem

5) Add-ins loading problem

2.4.1 Installing on Windows VistaWindows XP users skip this charter.

If User Account Control (UAC) is off Windows Vista cannot install any Microsoft Office AddIns for one user (“just me”). You must turned on UAC or install Addin for all users.


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2.4.2 Custom Policy problemsMain installation problem for Microsoft Office Project Add-Ins like Turbo Risk Manager is custom Microsoft .Net execution policy . Correctly configured and updated system allows to run Add-Ins, but some computers have custom policy, which prohibit Microsoft Office Project Add-Ins to run. Some system administrators prohibit to run some Microsoft .Net applications.

Turbo Risk Manager installer change custom policy to allow to run Add-In, but user account, which is used run installer, could have no rights to change custom policy.

Make sure what you have privileges to change custom execution policy. Ask your system administrator.

If Turbo Risk Manager button is not displayed, run caspol_off.bat from “Troubleshooting” folder. This command temporary disable custom execution policy. “Turbo Risk Manager” should load after you restart Microsoft Office Project . We strongly recommended to use antivirus software in this case.

If caspol_off.bat didn't help, see instructions below.

2.4.3 Add-Ins Trusted publishers and Macro Security problems

To run Add-Ins check you security settings. Open “Tools|Macro|Security”.

On Trusted Publishers “Trust all installer add-ins and templates” tab must be checked .

If you have any trouble to run Add-Ins set Security Level to Low.

If you use Low Security level, antivirus software usage is recommended.


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After changing macro security settings restart Microsoft Office Project.

2.4.4 Add-Ins blocking and "Add-in is not loaded" problem

If you use another Add-Ins they may work incorrectly and block “Turbo Risk Manager” loading.

Open “Help|About Microsoft Office Project”. In right corner of About screen click “Disabled Items” button. Use “Enable” button to unblock Add-Ins in your system.

After some errors system may disable Add-in loading. Check it and enable Add-in loading.


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1) In Project, select the Tools menu, Customize, Toolbars.

2) After the Customize window opens, click on the Commands tab.

3) In Categories window, scroll down until you find Tools. Click on Tools, then scroll down in the Commands window to find "COM Add-Ins".

4) Click and drag "COM Add-Ins" button to one of Project’s toolbars above, then close Customize window.

5) When you click on "COM Add-Ins", a list of available Add-Ins is displayed. Turbo Risk Manager should be listed together with Microsoft’s Add-Ins.

6) Turbo Risk Manager must be checked in this form and Loading Behavior must be set to Load at Startup


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After checking Turbo Risk Manager for loading, restart Microsoft Office Project.

2.4.5 Old version of software or damaged installationIf you use old version of Turbo Risk Manager (or installation directory is damaged) remove current version by Control Panel before new installation.

Uninstall option of setup.exe may work incorrectly for older or damaged versions. Use Control Panel to uninstall.

2.5 Program activation for commercial users

Turbo Risk Manager is absolutely free for educational organizations.

You may use Turbo Risk Manager in project management courses absolutely free.

For testing and trial purposes you may also use educational version.

Educational Version does not need activation or serial number.

Educational version has some limitations:

30 tasks

50 iterations

There are two kinds of commercial versions: Standard Version and Professional Version.

Standard version is intended for using in medium sized projects and provides medium precision.

Standard version is inexpensive, but has some limitations:

300 tasks

100 iterations

Commercial versions need activation. For activation please click Activation button from Risk Manager Settings window. The program will show your PC identification number.

Send identification number to [email protected]

After payment you receive activation code in 24 hours .

Enter activation code in activation window.

Now your program is fully functional.


mailto:[email protected]

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3 Quantitative Risk Analysis technique in Microsoft Office Project

3.1 PERT Analysis in Microsoft Office Project

Turbo Risk Manager is a tool with number of advantages over standard PERT simulation in Microsoft Office Project. Turbo Risk Manager uses the same schedule data as standart PERT, but the calculation is more accurate. Before using Turbo Risk Manager it's recommended to learn how to use standard PERT.

Microsoft Office Project implements one of Quantitative Risk Analysis techniques called PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique). PERT model was developed in 1950s to address uncertainty in the estimation of project parameters. According to classic PERT, expected task duration is calculated as the weighted average of the most optimistic, the most pessimistic, and the most likely time estimates. The expected duration of any path on the precedence network can be found by summing up expected durations.

Using PERT with PERT toolbar in Microsoft Project is very easy. To enable PERT toolbar choose PERT Analysis in View/Toolbars menu.

Microsoft Project has four views, which help you to enter data for PERT analysis: separate views for optimistic, expected, and pessimistic duration, as well as a PERT entry sheet. The most powerful view is the last one as it allows the user to enter and see all durations together. After you enter project data, press the Calculate PERT button on the toolbar. Calculations are performed by using optimistic, expected, and pessimistic durations. You will see results of the calculation in the Gantt Chart view.

3.2 Limitation of PERT in Microsoft Office Project. Advantages of Monte Carlo method

The classic PERT methodology has a number of limitations:

1) Classic PERT gives accurate results only if there is a single dominant path through a precedence network. If there are a number of parallel paths through the network it gives an overly optimistic estimation.

2) Classic PERT calculates schedule with 50% probability. For most projects this level of risk is too high.

3) Classic PERT cannot calculate estimated budged, only schedule

4) Classic PERT cannot calculate and display standard deviation


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To overcome the challenges associated with the PERT method, Monte Carlo simulations can be used as an alternative without these limitations. Monte Carlo is a mathematical method used on risk analysis in many areas and is used to approximate the distribution of potential results based on probabilistic inputs. Each simulation is generated by randomly pulling a sample value for each input variable from its defined probability distribution, e.g. uniform, normal, lognormal, triangular, beta, etc. Then these sample input values are used to calculate the results, i.e. total project duration, total project cost, project finish time. The inputs can be task duration, cost, start and finish time, etc. Then this procedure is repeated until the probability distributions are enough good to achieve the desired level of accuracy. They are used to calculate the critical path, slack values, etc. Monte Carlo simulations have been proven an effective methodology for the analysis of project schedule with uncertainties.

To use Monte Carlo simulations with Microsoft Office Project you need to have add-on tool like Turbo Risk Manager.

4 Easy-to-use Schedule prognosis. Enter data for PERT analysis and Turbo Risk Manager

Turbo Risk Manager and standard PERT analysis use the same data for calculating optimal schedule, but Turbo Risk Manager provide more accurate result.

On the View menu, point to Toolbars, and then click PERT Analysis.

1. On the PERT Analysis toolbar, click PERT Entry Sheet .2. For each task, enter the optimistic, expected, and pessimistic durations in the Optimistic

Dur., Expected Dur., and Pessimistic Dur. fields, respectively.

If a task's duration is not expected to vary, enter the expected duration in all three fields.

3. Click Calculate PERT , and then click Yes in the dialog box that appears. If you do

not need to analyze Optimistic Gantt , Expected Gantt , or Pessimistic Gantt

you can skip this step.4. Open WBS branches for Monte Carlo calculation or use Show/All Subtask button from

standard toolbar. Only open WBS branches will be calculated. This is performance optimization.

5. Click Turbo Risk Manager and then click Start

To view the optimistic, expected, and pessimistic durations, on the PERT Analysis toolbar, click

Optimistic Gantt , Expected Gantt , or Pessimistic Gantt .

To view the end dates of three resulting schedules click Options on Tools menu. Click View tab, and then check Show project summary task check box.


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5 Budget prognosisPERT simulation cannot provide estimate budget calculation. You can use Turbo Risk Manager for budget calculation.

1. Right Click on any column. From popup menu choose Insert Column. Insert Cost1, Cost2 and Cost3 columns.

2. For each task, enter the optimistic, expected, and pessimistic cost in the Optimistic (Cost1), Expected (Cost2) and Pessimistic (Cost3) fields, respectively.

If task cost is not expected to vary, enter the expected cost in all three fields.

3. Open WBS branches for Monte Carlo calculation or use Show/All Subtask button from standard toolbar. Only open WBS branches will be calculated. This is performance optimization.

4. Click Turbo Risk Manager. Check Estimate Budget Costs option and then click Start

5. Calculated costs are saved in Cost field

6 Turbo Risk Manager SettingsAfter you press Turbo Risk Manager button you'll see Settings form. For most projects you can use default settings. You can change settings if you want .


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6.1 Number of iterations and precisionMonte Carlo precision depends on the number of iterations.

Inaccuracy not higher than 2-3% needs about 100 iterations.

Inaccuracy about 1% needs 500-1000 iteration.

Precision of calculation for each task is stored in Number10 field.

6.2 Desired risk levelCalculated schedule and budget depends on risk level. High level of risk gives shot schedule and low budget. Low risk level needs more time and money.

Turbo Risk Manager provide next levels of risks calculation

50% - high risk (like PERT calculation)

75% - moderate risk (recommended)

85% - low risk

90% - very low risk

Low risk needs big reserves of time and money. The value of reserve is displayed in Reserse against risk field.

Reserve before calculation is displayed in percent of standard deviation.

Reserve against risk is information field. Editing of this field is for experts only.

6.3 Other settings

Estimate budget cost option enables/disables the calculation for estimated cost.

Round to days. Round calculated duration to days. This option is very useful in many cases, however it leads to additional calculation inaccuracy.

7 Fields used by Turbo Risk Manager

The tables below explain the fields used by views described above. If you have assigned other data to any of these fields, that data will be overwritten by the Add-In. Please save your MS Project files under a different name before installing and running the Add-In.


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7.1 Input Fields for calculation

Column Title Description MS Project field

Optimistic Duration Optimistic Duration for PERT and Monte Carlo

Duration1

Estimated Duration Estimated Duration for PERT and Monte Carlo

Duration2

Pessimistic Duration Pessimistic Duration for PERT and Monte Carlo

Duration3

Optimistic Cost Optimistic Cost for Monte Carlo

Cost1

Estimated Cost Estimated Cost for Monte Carlo

Cost2

Pessimistic Cost Pessimistic Cost for Monte Carlo

Cost3

7.2 Output Fields for calculation

Column Title Description MS Project field

Duration Calculated Duration Duration

Duration5 Standard Deviation of Duration Duration5

Cost Calculated Cost Cost

Cost5 Standard Deviation of Cost Cost5

Precision Precision of calculation in percents. Precision depends on the value of Number of

Number10


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Interation set in Settings Form

8 Technical Support Info

If you have any question please contact us by e-mail [email protected]

Russian language users may receive advanced support in special forums here: www.MicrosoftProject.ru


mailto:[email protected]

introduction

Technology

turbo risk manager settings

project management company2

desired risk level

old version of software

educational license

nonexclusive license

pert analysis

educational version