introduction 10 minutes objectives 30 minutes example, case study 10 minutes group discussion 30...
TRANSCRIPT
SESSION PLAN
Introduction 10 minutes
Objectives 30 minutes
Example, Case Study 10 minutes
Group Discussion 30 minutes
Exercise 10 minutes
Conclusions 10 minutes
Low
Em
issi
ons
Land
Use
Pla
nnin
g D
evel
opm
ent T
eam
AcknowledgementsName Affiliation Name AffiliationDavid Saah; Co-Lead University of San Francisco, SIG Phan Xuan Thieu Vinh University, Vietnam
Mohd Zaki Hamzah; Co-Lead University Putra Malaysia Chalita Sriladda USAID-LEAD
Khamla Phanvilay, Co-Lead National University of Laos Hoang Thi Thu Duyen Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Cao Thuy Anh Dalat University, Vietnam Ladawan Puangchit Kasetsart University, Thailand
Chalermpol Samranpong Chiang Mai University, Thailand Do Anh Tuan Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Pham Thanh Nam USAID LEAF Vietnam Lyna Khan Royal University of Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Peter Stephen USAID LEAF Bangkok Le Ba Thuong Vietnam Forestry University, Vietnam
Hoang Vinh Phu Vinh University, Vietnam Napat Jakwattana University of Phayao, Thailand
Vipak Jintana Kasetsart University, Thailand Nur Anishah Binti Aziz University Kebangsaan Malaysia
Kulala Mulung PNG University of Technology Ratcha Chaichana Kasetsart University, Thailand
Somvilay Chanthalounnavong National University of Laos Sureerat Lakanavichian Chiang Mai University, Thailand
Thavrak Huon Royal University of Agriculture, Cambodia Vongphet Sihapanya National University of Laos
Athsaphangthong Munelith USAID LEAF Laos David Ganz USAID LEAF Bangkok
Attachai Jintrawet Chiang Mai University, Thailand Chi Pham, Project Coordinator USAID LEAF Bangkok
Chanin Chiumkanokchai USAID LEAF Bangkok Kent Elliott US Forest Service
Lam Ngoc Tuan Dalat University, Vietnam Beth Lebow US Forest Service
Mark Fenn USAID Vietnam Forests & Deltas Geoffrey Blate US Forest Service
Low Emission Land Use Planning (LELUP)Section 3. Analysis of Options
3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction
Regional Climate Change Curriculum Development
LELUP Framework
ENABLING ENVIRONMENT
ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT CONDITION
ANALYSIS OF FUTURE
OPTIONS
NEGOTIATING &
PRIORITIZINGIMPLEMENTA-
TION PLAN
MONITORING & EVALUATION
Low Emission Land Use Planning
1.1. Regulatory Assessments
1.2. Stakeholder Engagement
1.3. Planning & Development Goals & Objectives
2.1. Environment, Social, & Economic Data Needs
2.2. Understanding Historic Land Use Change
2.3. Data & Capacity Gap Assessment
3.1. Modeling Future Trends
3.2. Business as Usual Baseline Construction
Rules of the Game
Where does the baseline fit in?
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
Goal / Objective
NO
W
Past Trend / Current ConditionBaseline
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
+ / -
+ / -
+ / -
Learning Objectives
At the end of this session, learners will be able to:
Identify the role and importance of a ‘Business as Usual’ (BAU) baseline in Low Emission Land Use Planning framework.
Select appropriate baseline quantification approach
Baseline
Baseline: Is what you measure your scenario against
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
NO
W
Past Trend / Current Condition BASELINE
Scenario
Performance
Business As Usual (BAU)
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
NO
W
Past Trend / Current Condition
Business As Usual (BAU)
Scenario
Performance
Baseline: Is what you measure your scenario against
Example
Efficient Baseline
Efficient baseline case, which assumes that all resources are employed efficiently
“business-as-usual” baseline case , which assumes that future development trends follow those of the past and no changes in policies will take place.
Reference Level: Historic Trend
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
NO
WPast Trend / Current Condition
Reference Level (Historic Trend)
Reference Level: Historic Mean
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
NO
WPast Trend / Current Condition
Reference Level (Historic Mean)
Reference Level: Policy
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
NO
WPast Trend / Current Condition Reference Level (Policy)
Reference Level: Relative To each other
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
NO
WPast Trend / Current Condition
Reference Level (Historic Mean)
Reference Level (Historic Trend)
Reference Level (Policy)
Roles of a Baseline
Provide information on existing development objectives
Forecast and evaluate potential future scenarios
See the impact of climate change to the current situation
Optimize the current situation to meet desired conditions.
Develop alternative approaches
Terms can get confusing…
Years
tCO2e Emissions
-10 - 5 5 10Today
Reference Level(Business as Usual without Project)
PerformanceEmission Reduction
Start LE LUP ActivitiesHistorical Emissions(Actual Emissions)
Emissions with REDD+ Project(Monitored Emissions)
Baseline Needs to meet these standards
Transparency Consistency Comparability Completeness Accuracy Conservative
From: GOFC-GOLD 2009
Baseline ConstructionHOW DO WE DO THIS?
How? Reference Level Historic trend
Baseline Specific existing policy change /
New policy adopted Defined reference condition
Time/Space
Driv
ers
of C
hang
e
NO
WPast Trend / Current Condition
Reference Level (Historic Trend)
Land Use Change
IPCC guideline
Unit : t CO2e ha-1
Drivers analysis Historic Emissions Estimate for REDD+
Activity Data Emission/removal Data
Deforestation Degradation Enhancement Deforestation Degradation Enhancement
Activity Data
Activity data (AD) – measure of extent of activity Spatial extent of land cover transition due to deforestation, degradation,
carbon stock enhancement
Obtained from change detection of remote sensing products or other sources
such as timber extraction statistics
Units : Deforestation Area of gross deforestation per year: ha
Forest degradation
From logging activities: ha/yr
From fuel wood collection: m3/yr Forest enhancement Tree planting: ha/yr
Emission Factors
Emission factors (EF) – emissions/removals of GHG per unit activity Obtained from field data on carbon stocks, tree removals,
regrowth rates etc. Measured in tCO2e/unit
Calculate out Baseline
Net Emissions from Change =
Activity Data
Area of change (hectares)
X
Emission Factor
Emissions per hectare of change(tCO2e/ha)
BAU?
BAU?
BAU?
Which one is the BAU and Why?
1 2 3 4 5
(100,000)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Historical Time Period
Emis
sion
s (t
CO
2e)
Lam Dong Reference Level
Discuss on the regression coefficient
y = 84445x + 258058R² = 0.5435
Total Historical emissions (t CO2e)
Example Baselines
0 1 2 3 4 5 (100,000)
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Time period
Emis
sion
s (t
CO
2e)
Deforestation
Degradation
Total
Afforestation /Re-forestation
Example - Lam Dong Trend Line
Enhancement
Class discussion
Lam Dong, Vietnam Case Study BAU scenario
GDP growth rate : 20%
Population growth rate : 1.2%
Forest decline by 0.3%
Demands in electricity : 500MW (to 2020)
Challenges
Not a lot of data is available Setting a BAU baseline is a policy decision and therefore
political pressures may come into play. The ‘nesting’ or integration of project and/or sub-
national Reference Levels into national level Reference Levels will be complex.
Opportunities
This is NEW: The sharing of information and learning should lead to an openness and desire to share methodologies across jurisdictional and sector boundaries
TAKE HOME MESSAGES
A reference level for LE LUP is established and agreed upon by stake holders
A BAU scenario provides the benchmark against which future emission reductions and removals can be measured.
A BAU is a policy decision.
Guidelines for REDD+ Reference Levels: Principles and Recommendations , Meridian Institute
Technical Background Paper IPCC Guidelines for REDD+
Reference Levels, Patrick Van Laake (UN-REDD)
Project Green House Gases Emission
References