introducing the estuary guide and improving confidence

Project FD2119 Estuaries Research Programme Phase 2 Final dissemination March 2008

Alun Williams and Richard Whitehouse


Introducing the Estuary Guide and Introducing the Estuary Guide and Improving ConfidenceImproving Confidence


Overview

• What is the Estuary Guide?

• What information is available?

• Improving Confidence


Main aims of the Estuary Guide

• Provide a electronic platform– Best practice guidance– Knowledge repository– http://www.estuary-guide.net/

• Collate and electronically capture both ERP1 and ERP2 outputs

• Offer a framework containing synthesis of estuaries research to date


Snapshot of the Guide


The Guide is…

• An interactive document supported by a series of searchable tools;

• An overview of best practice in the field; • Based on a collation of industry

experience and ongoing research; • A vehicle for collation and dissemination of

the current outputs of the Estuaries Research Programme (funded by Defraand the Environment Agency since 1998) and other ongoing R&D.


The Guide is not…

• A prescriptive set of government advice, rather a summary of best practice;

• A complete and comprehensive guide to estuaries recognising all user perspectives.


Sources of knowledge

• Estuaries Research Programme:– ERP 1 e.g. FD1401(EMPHASYS)– FD2002(Futurecoast)– ERP 2 e.g. FD2116, FD2117 (EstSim)

• Other:– Estuaries research– General scientific research– Coastal research


Levels of information in the Guide

• Generic Estuary Guide chapters• Analysis and modelling guide• Supporting documents• Estuaries research• Links• Google search results


Estuaries Research (Programme)

Levels of information

Generic Estuary Guide

Analysis & Modelling Guide

•Data analysis methods•Hybrid methods•Process based “bottom -up”methods •Regime & equilibrium “ top-down” methods•Related modelling & analysis topics

Methods

•Accommodation space•Analytical solutions•Expert geomorphological analysis•Historical trends analysis•Holocene analysis•Saltmarsh analysis……


Generic Estuary Guide chapters

• Chapter 1 Introduction • Chapter 2 Estuary management • Chapter 3 Estuary setting • Chapter 4 Study approach

– Issues of scale– Summary of study process– Conceptual model– Synthesis & understanding

• Chapter 5 Study methods• Chapter 6 Presentation of findings • Chapter 7 Assessing impact


Example of a chapterPrinter ready formatted

PDF version

Short non-technicalsummary

Interactive image navigation


Analysis and modelling guide

• Data analysis methods • Regime and equilibrium “Top-Down”

methods • Process based “Bottom-Up” methods • Hybrid techniques that combine “Top-

Down” and “Bottom-Up” methods • Related modelling and analysis topics


Example of methods list


Example of a methodPrinter ready formatted

PDF version with complete text

FD2116 influenced summary table layout


Supporting documents

• Background papers on management framework

• Background papers on theoretical concepts • Select Government guidance• Guidance on impact assessment• Guidance on habitat creation and restoration • Worked examples and case studies• Guidance on modelling and analysis

– EMPHASYS guide and report– EstProc reports– Good modelling practice handbook


Estuaries research

• ERP Phase 1 dissemination• ERP Phase 2 dissemination• Estuaries database• Estuaries research projects

– Timeline of completed and ongoing projects

– Key documents and websites available– Key outputs available (HMI (SHELL),

ASMITA, EstSim…)


Links

• ERP research project websites• Other useful links• Useful process modelling software links• Other research project websites

– FRAME – FloodRiskNet– Saltmarsh Management Manual


• The Conceptual Model

• Uncertainty

• Confidence

Improving Confidence


Conceptual model of the estuary• Based on available information

• The model:– must be coherent and testable (hypothesis)– must be self-consistent– must contain the components of the sediment

budget and how those components interact– should utilise all available data and appropriate

analysis or predictive tools– where differences between data

sources/predictions arise, present data to demonstrate the uncertainty

• A necessary and time consuming process


Predictive methods• Data analysis of processes and morphology

– projections based on analysis• Top Down

– semi-empirical/analysis based morphological model• Bottom Up

– both: process based computational model– and: morphological model

• Hybrid– Semi-empirical/computational model

• Analysis and Modelling Guide

http://www.estuary-guide.net/guide/analysis_and_modelling/index.asp


Summary: Methods and Models and System Abstraction


Expressing uncertainty• Qualitative and Quantitative (Sayers et al., 2003):

– Deliberate vagueness, ‘There is a high chance of breaching’;

– Ranking without quantifying, ‘Option A is safer than Option B’;

– Stating possible outcomes without stating likelihoods, ‘It is possible the embankment will breach’;

– Probabilities of events or outcomes, ‘There is a 10% chance of breaching’;

– Range of variables and parameters, ‘The design flow rate is 100 cumecs +/-10 %’

– Confidence intervals, ‘There is a 95% chance that the design flow rate lies between 90 and 110 cumecs’;

– Probability distributions, “precise” probabilities based on multiple realisations.

last two widely used at present

http://www.estuary-guide.net/guide/chapter5_study_methods.asp#errors


Improving confidence - Data

• Right type of data– right scale and resolution

• Adequate quality of data– subject to quality assurance

• Record steps– source – method – processing

• Errors in techniques– time, space, magnitude


• quality (and quantity) of data

• a robust conceptual model

• Improved confidence in the results

Finally

introducing the estuary guide and improving confidence

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