intro slide exploiting aphid monitoring in europe environment project evk2-ct-1999-20001 a thematic...
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Intro Slide
EXploiting Aphid Monitoring IN Europe
http://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/examine/
Environment Project EVK2-CT-1999-20001
A Thematic Network to detect, understand and predict the impacts of environmentalchange on the dynamics of aphids as key indicative components of terrestrial ecosystems
Global ChangeGlobal changeAphids and the environment
Higher temperatures leads to increased number of generations
Figure from Yamamura and Kiritani (1998) Appl. Entomol. Zool. 33, 289-298
Global ChangeGlobal change
Warmer winters mean earlier aphid flights
Aphids and the environment
Suction trappingSuction trappingThe standard Rothamsted suction trap
12.2m (40ft) tall
Airflow rate of ~45m3/min
Samples represent a circular area of ~100km radius
Aphids are separated fromother insects and identified
Aphids can be tested for viruses and genetic studies conducted
Samples stored in ‘museum’
12.2m suction trapsoperating in 2002 original EXAMINE member other trap operator
61 currently operational
47 in total
1 operational5 defunct
1.5m traps
Defunct traps
Data FormatsHistoric data
Excel
Database
Data formats provided
Layouts: 216 different kinds of file layout
Converted to XML using ad hoc Visual Basic applications
Data FormatsHistoric dataCurrent database status
CountriesTraps with dataAphid speciesSite yearsCatch recordsIndividual aphidsDatabase size (bytes)
Host plant information is also availableNumber of host plants
1597
6631324
1 912 63025 614 711
3 268 000 000
1955
About 80% of European suction trap data are available28 traps have 20 or more years of data, 71 have more than 10 years
Web SiteDatabase web siteUsers must submit to a ‘Data Access Agreement’
Password protected
Mirror site to be set up at INRA - Le Rheu
Data entry
Data extraction and reporting
Bulletin production
General Administration
Taxonomy database
Reporting ReportingAvailable information and dataSummary trap information
List of aphid species identified
Annual totals and means ofaphid catches
Raw data Annual, monthly or weekly
Summarised data nth aphid caught First n% of total catch Relative percentages Total between 2 time points
Graphical OutputReportingGraphical output
Histograms with several options Other graph types (line graphs, pie charts etc) are under development
Example DataExample data
Extracted data plotted using ExcelAcy
rth
osi
ph
um
pis
um
1
10
100
0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52
Week
Co
un
t
1
10
100
1000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Co
un
t
Mean weekly count at Rothamsted 1965 to 2001
Mean annual count per trap 1965 to 2001(mean traps/year = 40 3.25 s.e.)
Climate DataClimate data (mean monthly)
Complementary data
Climatic Research Unit, UEA, UKHeld on a 0.5 degree grid (1901 - 1995)
Climate Change Network
Mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, precipitation, wet day frequency, cloud cover, vapour pressure
ATEAM (Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling)
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, GermanyA 10 minute (1/6 degree) grid is used (1960 - 2000)Several global change scenarios have been modelled to 2020, 2050 and 2100
Variables supplied include:
Land Use DataLand use data
PELCOM(Pan - European Land Cover Monitoring)
Based on the integrative use of multispectral and multitemporal1 km resolution NOAA-AVHRRsatellite data and ancillary data
Other land use datasets available include CORINE, SEI and IGBP
Complementary data
Land use data samplingLand use data
Supplementary data
Data source Buffer+Intersect
Extraction
Data source: Grid 5km X 5km, Buffer : R = 50 km
Pollution DataPollution data
EMEP(Co-operative Programmefor Monitoring and Evaluationof the Long-RangeTransmission of Air Pollutantsin Europe)
SO2, NO2 and O3
concentrations for 1990to 1999
UK data1500 monitoring stationsSO2 from 1958NO2 and O3 from 1985
Emissions of Nitrogen oxides in 1999 at50 km resolution
Complementary data
Analyses SummaryAnalyses
Approaches29 aphid species chosen
Auto-correlation
REML(residual maximum likelihood analysis)
Artificial neural nets
Traps : latitude, longitude, altitude
Aphid data
CORINE land cover classes
PELCOM land cover classes
Agricultural censuses
Climate
Pollution
Auto-correlationAnalyses
Auto-correlationTests for correlation of data between traps at different distances from each otherKriging and semi-variogram approaches usedMoran’s index calculated (an index of auto-correlation)
As distance increases, auto-correlation decreases
Average correlogram 1989 - 2001
REML Analyses
REML(Residual maximum likelihood analysis)
Simultaneously models both the mean and spatial structure in the data
The mean model takes account of patterns that can be directly attributed to environmental factors such as geographical position, climate, land use and pollution
The spatial model describes the correlation pattern of the residuals Fitted prediction standard errors
for annual totals of Myzus persicae in 1981 in the UK.
x co-ordinate / 1000y
co-o
rdin
ate
/ 1
000
Reference: Patterson and Thomson (1971) Biometrika 31, 100-109
Future WorkFuture workAphid data
Convert and upload remaining data from both original and new EXAMINE members
AnalysesArtificial neural networks
Used to suggest interesting variables to investigateConduct analyses on the29 key species usingclimate, land use andpollution variables
Improve web pagesEvolve web site
Ongoing
Acknowledgements
Rothamsted Research, UK
Acknowledgements
INRA-Le Rheu, France
All EXAMINE participants and new members
Richard Harrington, Paul Verrier, the Rothamsted Insect Survey, Suzanne Clark, Sue Welham and Joe Perry
Maurice Hullé and Damien Maurice
Climate, land use and pollution data suppliers
Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium Mark Rounsevell and Nadège Cocu
The European Union
Imperial College of LondonNigel Bell, Jon Knight and Adrian Leach
Contact details
If you want access to these data...
Contact details
WWW http://www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/examine/
Email [email protected] (Project co-ordinator) [email protected] (UK Technical co-ordinator)
The aphid data held by EXAMINE are availableto the scientific community