intraday intermarket - theotrade
TRANSCRIPT
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© 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
1 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
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We remain in HIGH VOLATILITY ENVIRONMENTS across the board, and we not the
relationships between markets for clues.
Stocks and Oil continue to fall while Gold, the Dollar, and Treasuries continue to rise. It's a
RISK OFF market and we're on guard for any signs of relationship reversals in the week ahead.
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2 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
10-Year Treasury Notes ($UST – Price)
Weekly
We're again seeing Bonds off the 2018 lows near 118 which is our target and focal point for
the week(s) and we're finally seeing the bounce off this level. It's the 20 week EMA.
The downtrend continued with a breakdown beneath 118, sending the 10-year note Yield
above the key 3.0% level (our focal point) ahead of a bounce-week last week off support.
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3 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
Daily
The ongoing downtrend continues with Bonds - so far - as price rose back just above the 118
index level after our expected bounce.. We're seeing a snap-bounce off the 117 level as price
once again challenges the underside of 119 pivot level. Use this as your trading reference level
- along with yields near their highs - for this week.
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4 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
US S&P 500 ($SPX)
Weekly
We'll start with a quote from last week in the high volatility enviornment:
If we do NOT see a bigger bounce off this level, we could be looking at an alternate thesis
extended sell-off toward 2,600 or lower.
That's true again on the bigger picture as 2,600 is the key pullback level we've achieved now.
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5 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
Daily:
Keeping that logic going, we have 2,600 as our critical BOUNCE OR BREAK target and we will
be ready for a bounce in a higher volatility environment.
However, additional failure here this week opens the market for additional selling and yes it
can go lower rapidly as it already is.
Stay safe and continue trading the LOWEST timeframe you possibly can or selling distant strike
premium (preferably distant and lower puts) in the higher volatility sell-off event.
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6 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
Gold
Weekly
Watch the next swing which achieved our first target into the falling 20 week EMA near
$1,230 and the bullish pathway toward $1,300 if above this resistance price or lower with a
larger buy swing potentially complete.
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7 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
Daily
We had a continued liquidation/breakdown event beneath $1,310 that collapsed Gold toward
$1,290 and then the recent reaction resulted in an extended collapse toward $1,250's target
and beneath all that toward our weekly $1,220 target beneath $1,200 with a rally/aggressive
bounce off $1,180 triggering last week
Gold remains in a sideways trading range with and end-of-week bullish breakout on high
volume and momentum that could set in motion a pathway toward $1,300.
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8 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
WTI Crude Oil ($WTIC)
Weekly
We were correct on the Oil pullback back down away from the $75.00 initially and we'll keep
watching the DAILY chart for clues from here as a logical yet strong bounce continues off the
$66.00 which is the 40 week EMA. Note the sell-swing into support target on the weekly
which is in finally challenging a trendline and the 200 day SMA on the Daily Chart.
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© 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
9 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
Daily
Note where we are on the WEEKLY CHART (RANGE) and frame your next trade(s) in terms of
the departure - off support/target from $69.00.
We're at the lower end of our range and thus don't have clear plans for Oil except to trade the
immediate departure from $66.00 this week as highlighted as the broader range within a bull
market continues and then play the potential BOUNCE off the $67.00 target as labeled above.
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© 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
10 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
US Dollar Index ($USD)
Weekly
We're watching the Dollar Index strengthen but stabilize into a trading range with divergences
on the Daily Chart. Focus on the DAILY levels and note the SELL SWING PATHWAY that
develops away from the current $96.0 level toward our Daily Chart Pivot and weekly level
above 94.00 which gives us a BULLISH BOUNCE THESIS off 94.00 that is still in motion.
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© 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
11 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
Daily
We see the Dollar into our key support/bounce target with a rally developing in an ongoing
uptrend.
We'll look to trade the immediate bounce above 94.00 which has so far been successful into
the 96.00 target. Use the Weekly chart as your pivot as we prepare to trade the departure
from $96.00.
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© 2018 TheoTrade LLC. All rights reserved.
12 Inter-market Technical Analysis for October 29, 2018
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