interview of sartaj aziz

7/30/2019 Interview of Sartaj Aziz

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Institutions, not whims, to run the country: Sartaj Aziz

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In an interview with Indias The Tribune, Sartaj Aziz, who has twice served as Pakistans finance minister during Nawaz Sharifsfirst and second terms as prime minister, speaks on how the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz plans to rescue the countryseconomy.

(Q) You have handled Pakistans economy earlier. In what shape is it today?

It is a very difficult situation. For the first time in history, our growth rate is down to 3 per cent, from an average of 5-5.5 percent for the first 55 years. With population growth rate of over 2 per cent, there is hardly any increase in per capita income. Thepoverty and unemployment are worsening. This leaves us less revenue, so our fiscal situation becomes bad. With low export, thecurrent account deficit increases.

The second problem is the last government has been extremely irresponsible in fiscal management. The borrowings have beenunbelievable the total debt was Rs 6 trillion when the gov ernment came, today it has crossed Rs 13 trillion in five years. Debtservicing will consume more than 50 per cent of our tax revenues. The balance of payment has been somewhat moremanageable because of remittances $13-14 billion a year. But then we have to pay back $5 million to the IMF in the next yearand a half.


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(Q) Is the Pakistan economy going the Europe way?

Not as bad because we still have 3 per cent growth, Europe is in the negative. Our first priority, therefore, is economic revival. Ifwe do not push the growth rate to 6 per cent, no problem can be solved, and to do that we have to revive investment. Investmenthad touched 20 per cent of the GDP in the early 90s; now it is 12 per cent, which yields a growth rate of only 3 per cent. So howdo y ou rev ive the economy? We have said in our manifesto that since there is no single driver of growth, we have to use several

mutually reinforcing engines of growth. The first important sector is energy. On one hand you have shortages, and on the otherthere is potential, and Rs 10 billion investment can come in five years if you change the policy .

Second, foreign investment in livestock and energy sector, though foreign investment will take time because of the law and ordersituation. T hird, oil and mineral sector we have copper mines and other areas where foreign investment can come.

Fourth, we have a huge infrastructure gap to fill, including housing. We can also convert some of the remittances from abroadinto investment, as India is doing, by offering them opportunities like share percentage, new floatations and special products.Last but not the least, revival of hope and confidence of the business community, at which Nawaz Sharif is very good!


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(Q) How do you go about doing that?

Sharif will call a meeting of the business community soon, and tell them, Look, I want to help you; now things have changed and

I have promised good gov ernance, opportunities and a level-playing field. He has done this in 1991 and 1997.

The next task will be correcting the fiscal imbalance by stopping the haemorrhages. First comes the losses of the corporationsand the second is unessential non-development expenditure subsidies, bureaucracy, etc which our manifesto has said willbe cut by 30 per cent.


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(Q) Are y ou advocating privatising various corporations?

Once we put them in shape. Right now they cannot be privatised. A solution is to select people from the business community tomanage the corporations, as was done with banks to turn them around. The last government did not appoint chief executives onmerit. They were political appointees who interfered in the business. In the first few days, we have to do this.

For fiscal deficit, we have to raise revenue, which is a longer-term task. The solution is a massive database of all incomes and

access for the revenue authorities to that. Every house or car that is bought should be available on record. Even if we donttransform immediately, we can start with a cut in the expenditure and raise revenue to some extent.

(Q) What about going to the IMF?


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run, Pakistan has to improve the energy mix with local resources, coal and hydro. It has to produce electricity at a price lowerthan the sale price of Rs 9.

There is also theft, transmission losses and non-payment of bills, adding 10 per cent to the circular debt. This can be solvedthrough good gov ernance.

The other need is major restructuring of the way you buy and sell electricity. India has a wholesale market for energy in whichone board buys or sells energy to another even for half an hour. In Pakistan, provincial governments cannot do anything. Thesystem is over-centralised.

The security issue is important in Pakistan, as it discourages investment. Given the uncertainty in Afghanistan, what do youthink the current government needs to do to address the terror problem?

Terrorism has its roots in the Russian invasion of Afghanistan. That is when the Americans set up these madarsas to trainMujahideen. It funded and armed them. They did a remarkable job of defeating a superpower. But what happened, the USabandoned Afghanistan in 1991; and all the seven commanders who were fighting with the Russians started fighting each otherfor territory.

Three years later, soldiers who had fought for them and wanted peace, revolted against the commanders and became Taliban.They then managed to bring peace to Afghanistan, eliminated drugs, disarmed and set up a government. By 1998, they hadcaptured 90 per cent of the territory and actually brought peace. When 9/11 happened, the US invaded Afghanistan. Have theyachieved a single objective of invading Afghanistan? There is no peace, no suppression of terrorism, no democracy and nodevelopment. And they pushed all the Mujahideen into our territory, telling us to take care of them. It is very tragic.


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(Q) What is to be done now....?

First of all, the departure of the US from Afghanistan will create an enabling environment. But then you need a stronggovernment here, which I hope now Nawaz Sharif will provide, with the army and other stakeholders coming on board ondeveloping a common strategy. The strategy obviously has to be a multi-pronged approach.

First of all, you have to prescribe the ground rules. We wont talk to anybody who does not accept our Constitution, judiciaryand Parliament. So the writ of the State has to be accepted. T hose who do not accept the State will be dealt with militarily; andthose who accept it can come to the negotiation table. Hopefully we have a good chance to do this.

When you were the Finance Minister, you promoted trade between India and Pakistan. But it has since been stagnating. Howdoes business move forward between the two countries?


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Pakistan had made significant movement in 2004. For the first time, a decision had been made to move away from its earlierstand that unless Kashmir is resolved, there would be no economic cooperation. CBMs, negotiations and trade started, and thepeace process got moving. Unfortunately, extremist activity disrupted the peace process.

Secondly, Pakistan did much more in terms of try ing to promote its own infrastructure, although the trade balance was in Indiasfavour. Also our concerns on non-tariff barriers have not been fully addressed. There are a lot of studies that have been done onthis subject. The two countries have set for themselves a target of taking trade from $2.5 billion now to $10 billion India $9billion and Pakistan $1billion, yet we are ready for it. Pakistans business community is anxious to improv e economic relationswith India. Currently our business houses face problems when they go to India to open outlets. T here is a lot of unwritten biasagainst them at the customs and local official levels. Some kind of mistrust has travelled.

(Q) What will you do to revive the process?


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That is related to non-tariff barriers. But Nawaz Sharif has already said he wants better relations with India, which has thus farnot reciprocated on many initiatives. This requires a high-level political contact, which could be started in the coming weeks,where we can decide who has to do what.

(Q) Do you think trade will now be divorced again from Kashmir?

Every thing has to be discussed. A lot of concessions were made by Pakistan, but without any reciprocation.

(Q) What is the big change in Pakistan you see since y our last government?


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The democratic process and structure is much stronger. That is a big change. Prev iously, ev ery time the transition from militaryrule was in uncertain terms. You were looking over your shoulder for the generals and the judiciary. But now we have a morestable situation. The entire country wants democracy , everybody is interested in elections. We have institutions in place.

Earlier, the President could appoint anybody as leader of the Opposition, and anybody could be appointed caretaker PrimeMinister, or to the judiciary or election commissioner. Now there is a system, plus free media. That is why the elections were farfairer this time.

Elections were also reasonable in 2008 as well as this time because the army was not there. Previously, most elections weremanaged by the military. T his is the first time that democracy has become stronger.

The government can now start governing according to democratic principles. It knows its responsibility to the people, and has todeliver. For example, manifestos of parties have been discussed this time, and people have been explained how we plan to

implement those. In the PML-N manifesto, we have 32 concrete targets in different sectors of the economy, which every body isgoing to remind us of ev ery three or six months. Accountability to the electorate is a healthy thing.


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Sher Ahsan Kamra n -4

(Q) You thus see a turning point for a new Pakistan?

If the international geopolitical situation allows us, it can become a real turning point, particularly on terrorism and otherrelated problems. If the global interactive circumstances become unfavourable, then of course it will take longer.

Yes, it can be a new Pakistan in the sense that we have to do much better now. We are the slowest growing economy, so the firstthing to do is to revive the economy. T hen the label of Pakistan being a breeding ground for terrorism is not a good thing for us.We have to have a more reasonable situation, for which we need to gain our rightful place in the international arena, but thatagain requires better geopolitical conditions.

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22 hours ago

Returning to India kindazesty.blogspot.com/Pros and Cons of moving from US to India, told firsthand

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In his days he had no economic plan, so popularly he was known as Surcharge Aziz.

3 replies active 7 hours ago

7 hours ago

+100 You are absolutely correct. I remember his interview on CNN soon after Nawaz took over as PM on his second stint in office.

Sort am Aziz was very upbeat, although I must say he is on the ground and seems to be level t honking. He is right the Europeaneconomy is very sluggish. UK economy is 1 to under 2% .

7 hours ago

Sorry please read Sirtaj Aziz.

7 hours ago

Also read level thinking

4 hours ago

Nothing will change. NS record in collecting tax is very bad. All those industrialists and business community who supported him are

less likely to allow him to either increase or impose new tax. Sartaj Aziz is by no means top economist. Ishaq Dar is just accountant.

Ahsan Iqbal has a shallow knowledge (not economist). Useless team with lots of hype. India has top economist from Oxford university

(professor) heading the government. Wait and see.
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2 hours ago

Mr. Sartaj Aziz has rightly explained the whole economic scenario. Only strong will 'to do extraordinary' can help to overcome the

current situation and all know that if they did not perform, they to leave the office just like PPP

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