internet access to census migration and journey-to-work data john stillwell and oliver duke-williams...
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Internet Internet Access to Access to Census Census
Migration and Migration and Journey-to-Journey-to-Work DataWork Data
John Stillwell and Oliver Duke-WilliamsJohn Stillwell and Oliver Duke-WilliamsCentre for Computational GeographyCentre for Computational Geography
University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JTUniversity of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT
Paper presented at the 32Paper presented at the 32ndnd Annual Conference Annual Conference
of the Regional Science Association International of the Regional Science Association International
British and Irish Section (Session on Migration British and Irish Section (Session on Migration Analysis)Analysis)
Dudley Hotel, Brighton and Hove, 21-23 August 2002Dudley Hotel, Brighton and Hove, 21-23 August 2002
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FocusFocus
• The provision and development of a The provision and development of a Census Interaction Data Service (CIDS) Census Interaction Data Service (CIDS)
• The development of a web-based The development of a web-based information system (WICID) that allows information system (WICID) that allows researchers to extract data on researchers to extract data on interaction flows between sets of interaction flows between sets of origins and destinationsorigins and destinations
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PresentationPresentation• The challenge: aims and objectivesThe challenge: aims and objectives
• Census-based interaction data setsCensus-based interaction data sets
• System architecture System architecture
• Metadata structureMetadata structure
• Features of the interfaceFeatures of the interface
• Some examples of data extraction and Some examples of data extraction and analysisanalysis
• Conclusions - next stepsConclusions - next steps
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AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements• Funded by ESRC and JISC under the 2001 Funded by ESRC and JISC under the 2001
Census of Population Programme Census of Population Programme
(Award number H507 255177)(Award number H507 255177)
• Began: 1 August 2001Began: 1 August 2001
• Ends: 31 July 2006Ends: 31 July 2006
• Paul Boyle and Zhiqiang Feng, St Paul Boyle and Zhiqiang Feng, St AndrewsAndrews
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The ChallengeThe Challenge
• To increase the use of the Origin-To increase the use of the Origin-Destination (interaction) data sets Destination (interaction) data sets that will be produced as outputs that will be produced as outputs from the 2001 UK Census from the 2001 UK Census
(as well as the equivalent special (as well as the equivalent special migration and commuting data sets migration and commuting data sets produced from 1991 and 1981 produced from 1991 and 1981 Censuses)Censuses)
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Objectives Objectives • To provide users with access to existing To provide users with access to existing
census based interaction data sets (for census based interaction data sets (for 1991 and 1981) via the Internet1991 and 1981) via the Internet
• To maintain and develop an ‘user-friendly’ To maintain and develop an ‘user-friendly’ interface for query building and data interface for query building and data extractionextraction
• To develop a flexible system that allows To develop a flexible system that allows new data sets (e.g. 2001 Census new data sets (e.g. 2001 Census interaction data) to be added without any interaction data) to be added without any major system redesign major system redesign
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Objectives Objectives
• To allow users the option of To allow users the option of constructing queries that involve the constructing queries that involve the selection of origin and destination areas selection of origin and destination areas at different spatial scales at different spatial scales
• To produce a library of popular sub-sets To produce a library of popular sub-sets of interaction data for quick extraction of interaction data for quick extraction and downloadingand downloading
• To provide facilities to download the To provide facilities to download the data in alternative formatsdata in alternative formats
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Interaction Data Sets for Interaction Data Sets for 19911991Original data setsOriginal data sets
• SMS Set 1 (2 tables, 12 counts, wards)SMS Set 1 (2 tables, 12 counts, wards)
• SMS Set 2 (12 tables, 93 counts, districts)SMS Set 2 (12 tables, 93 counts, districts)
• SWS Set C (9 tables, 274 counts, wards)SWS Set C (9 tables, 274 counts, wards)
• Table 100 (2 tables, 47 counts, districts)Table 100 (2 tables, 47 counts, districts)
Derived data setsDerived data sets
• SMS Set 1 Tables 3-10 (adjusted by Rees and SMS Set 1 Tables 3-10 (adjusted by Rees and Duke-Williams) so-called SMSGAPSDuke-Williams) so-called SMSGAPS
• SMS Set 1 Table 3 (adjusted by Simpson and SMS Set 1 Table 3 (adjusted by Simpson and Middleton) so called SMS-MIGPOPMiddleton) so called SMS-MIGPOP
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Interaction Data Sets for Interaction Data Sets for 19811981• 1981 SMS Set 2 (Male and female 1981 SMS Set 2 (Male and female
migrants between wards in 1991)migrants between wards in 1991)
• 1981 SWS Set C (Five tables - 172 1981 SWS Set C (Five tables - 172 counts - of journey to work flows counts - of journey to work flows between wards in 1991)between wards in 1991)
• all re-estimated for 1991 ward all re-estimated for 1991 ward geography by Boyle and Feng as part of geography by Boyle and Feng as part of a Census Development Programme a Census Development Programme projectproject
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System ArchitectureSystem Architecture
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MetadataMetadataStructureStructure
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CIDS HomepageCIDS Homepage
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Features of the WICID Features of the WICID InterfaceInterface
Login in screenLogin in screen
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General Query ScreenGeneral Query Screen
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Area Selection ToolsArea Selection Tools
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List Area Selection ToolList Area Selection Tool
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Data Selection ToolsData Selection Tools
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Data Selection OptionsData Selection Options
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Table Selection for 1991 SMS 2Table Selection for 1991 SMS 2
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Variable Selection with Table 4 of the 1991 SMS 2
Variable Selection with Table 4 of the 1991 SMS 2
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Off the shelf facilityOff the shelf facility
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Data extractionData extraction
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WICID Output PlannerWICID Output Planner
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WICID Output PreviewerWICID Output Previewer
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Some examples of data Some examples of data extractionextraction
What were theWhat were the migrant flows to migrant flows to Brighton from elsewhere in 1990-91?Brighton from elsewhere in 1990-91?
Need to designa set of zonesthat are suitable:- districts in Sussex- counties in SE- other GB regions- NI and Eire- overseas
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Query: Extraction of SMS data on migration to Brighton, 1990-91
Query: Extraction of SMS data on migration to Brighton, 1990-91
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Source: 1991 CensusCrown Copyright: ESRC/JISC Purchase
Migration flows to Brighton, 1990-91Migration flows to Brighton, 1990-91 North 52 Hampshire 177
Yorkshire and Humberside 160 Hertfordshire 68East Midlands 151 Isle Of Wight 19East Anglia 118 Kent 149South West 294 Oxfordshire 70West Midlands 176 Surrey 198North West 174Wales 111 Eastbourne 74Scotland 99 Hastings 39Northern Ireland 16 Hove 1609
Lewes 433Irish Republic 56 Rother 21Total inflow from overseas 1643 Wealden 87
Adur 139Inner London 611 Arun 76Outer London 532 Chichester 28Bedfordshire 33 Crawley 102Berkshire 81 Horsham 90Buckinghamshire 48 Mid Sussex 231Essex 106 Worthing 101
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Query: SMS data on age-specific migration to Brighton from rest of GB and from overseas, 1990-91
Query: SMS data on age-specific migration to Brighton from rest of GB and from overseas, 1990-91
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Age group
Nu
mb
er o
f in
-mig
ran
ts
Inflows from GB
Inflows from overseas
Age profiles of in-migrants to Brighton from rest of GB and from overseas, 1990-91
Age profiles of in-migrants to Brighton from rest of GB and from overseas, 1990-91
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Query: Students aged 19-21 Query: Students aged 19-21 with term-time residence in with term-time residence in Sussex and usual residence Sussex and usual residence
by countyby county
Query: Students aged 19-21 Query: Students aged 19-21 with term-time residence in with term-time residence in Sussex and usual residence Sussex and usual residence
by countyby county
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Source: 1991 Census Crown Copyright: ESRC/JISC Purchase
Main county origins with term-time addresses in Sussex
Main county origins with term-time addresses in Sussex
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Source: 1991 Census Crown Copyright: ESRC/JISC Purchase
Main county destinations of students with term-time address outside Sussex
Main county destinations of students with term-time address outside Sussex
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Query: Migration flows in life course ages for DTLR modelling system
Query: Migration flows in life course ages for DTLR modelling system
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Spatial Interaction Modelling
dDOBAM ijjijiij
Power function model:
Exponential function model:
eDOBAM ijjijiij
d
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Intra-area flows included Intra-area flows excludedAge Power Exponential Mean mig Power Exponential Mean mig
group parameter parameter distance parameter parameter distance
1-14 2.66 0.045 45.1 1.47 0.011 122.415-19 2.56 0.040 51.4 1.41 0.011 129.120-24 2.33 0.034 53.0 1.24 0.010 116.925-29 2.48 0.041 45.8 1.46 0.013 98.230-44 2.49 0.039 49.6 1.50 0.012 110.945-59 2.61 0.041 51.1 1.66 0.013 119.760+ 2.83 0.049 45.8 1.71 0.013 121.6
Decay parameters and mean migration distances
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Parameters and MMLs for matrices that exclude intra-area flows
Parameters and MMLs for matrices that include intra-area flows
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-14
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-4
4
45-5
9
60+
Age
Gen
eral
ized
par
amte
r
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Dis
tan
ce (
km)
Decay parameterMean migration length
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1-14
15-1
9
20-2
4
25-2
9
30-4
4
45-5
9
60+
Age
Gen
eral
ized
par
amte
r
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Dis
tan
ce (
km)
Decay parameterMean migration length
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Social structure of Leeds and surrounding districts using 1991
SWS
Social structure of Leeds and surrounding districts using 1991
SWS
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Query: Journey to work flows Query: Journey to work flows between zones by social class, between zones by social class,
19911991
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0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
I II III (NM) III (M) IV V
Social class structure of commuters in Leeds and between Leeds and surrounding
districts, 1991
Social class structure of commuters in Leeds and between Leeds and surrounding
districts, 1991
Source: 1991 Census Crown Copyright: ESRC/JISC Purchase
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% of flow in Class II
56.436.233.428.413
%of flow in class I
2110.4
8.36.20
Source: 1991 Census Crown Copyright: ESRC/JISC Purchase
Proportions of commuters to Central Leeds from other wards and surrounding districts by social class, 1991
Proportions of commuters to Central Leeds from other wards and surrounding districts by social class, 1991
Professional
Managerial and Technical
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% in class III (M)
24.115.312.811
1
% in class III (NM)
46.432.53028.318
Source: 1991 Census Crown Copyright: ESRC/JISC Purchase
Skilled Non-manual
Skilled Manual
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% in class V
12.83.832.50
Source: 1991 Census Crown Copyright: ESRC/JISC Purchase
Partly Skilled
Unskilled
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Conclusions/Next stepsConclusions/Next steps• CIDS now up and running CIDS now up and running
• Flexible metadata structure of WICID will Flexible metadata structure of WICID will allow 2001 Census results to be included in allow 2001 Census results to be included in the systemthe system
• WICID will be used to verify the 2001 data in WICID will be used to verify the 2001 data in 20032003
• Mapping option for geographical area Mapping option for geographical area selection now being developedselection now being developed
• Analysis and modelling facilities intended Analysis and modelling facilities intended but raise difficult questionsbut raise difficult questions