international workshop on nuclear science and education - [email protected] 17/03/2009 present and...

International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] 17/03/2009

Present and future of nuclear energy,main trends

International Workshop on Nuclear Science and Education - [email protected] - 17/03/2009 2

1. The race for energy

2. The nuclear today and to-morrow

3. Jobs and competencies in support of a reactor power program


Source IEA : Energy to 2050 -Scenarios for a Sustainable Future

Huge call for energy to fuel the world economy growth

• Present: before current crisis, fast growing countries, like China or India, did unbalance the energy resources market equilibrium

• Future: better share of energy among countries and development of electricity use is of vital necessity, along with a growing population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Wo

rld

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy

So

urc

es

(Gto

e)

6

6,5

7

7,5

8

8,5

9

Wor

ld P

opul

atio

n (B

illio

ns)

Other RenewablesBiomassNuclearGasOilCoalPopulation

Electricity in Africa & Europe

(Nasa)


A new challenge: the global warming Greenhouse gases emissions are affecting the climate,

inducing catastrophic events (droughts, torrential rains, seas level increase)

Energy sector is a strong contributor to CO2 emissions and will be affected by the development of a world policy

Deforestation

CO2 emissions


Hydraulics & nuclear, best ways to reduce CO2 emissions

FRANCE

Hydraulics & nuclear have about equal share in the worldelectricity production, with about 15 % each.


World electricity generation in 2006

coal 41%

oil 6%

gas 20%

biomass 1%

wind 1%

hydro 16%

nuclear 15%

Source IEA


Solar & wind: for the future…

• Still a very low contribution to the world energy balance:– Solar: 0.55 % of total energy consumption

0.02% of electricity generation– Wind: 0.7 % of electricity generation

• But a fast growing development in some countries through a financial support and a guaranty on the return of investment

Photovoltaic productionSource : AIE

Windmill productionSource : American Windmill Association


Not one answer !• Limits:

– Fossil (coal, oil, gas): their development will be limited by carbon penalties ; the potential sequestration of CO2 emission could only be partial and costly

– Hydraulics: potential sites are still existing in specific areas, allowing a factor of 12 to 15 (US Geological Survey), compared to the existing capacity, bur it’s not of generic use

– Renewable (wind & solar) can only have a partial contribution to electricity production, for they only produce when the resource is available

– Nuclear is a complex technology under control of international and national policies and cannot be quickly deployed

• The past 50 years has seen several rankings in the cost of electricity generation between coal, gas & nuclear, mostly due to the market variations on the price of raw resources. The optimization of economical risks leads to diversify means of production.


Mineral world energy resources

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Speculative

Estimated

Proven

Source

US National Academy of

Science

(Cla

thra

tes)

Thousands of « quads »

(Nota : 450 quads = about 1 year of world energy consumption) 1 quad = 1015 BTU


Take them all

and make the electricity use more efficient !Nuclear

Solar

Hydraulics

Wind

Gas

Coal

What is advisable today? An energy mix…


The nuclear today and to-morrow


Some specific characteristics of nuclear power

• Long term engagement, which cannot afford a stop & go process– 15 years to be prepared– 60 years of operation– 20 years for complete dismantling

• Public acceptance and political will• Drastic constraints in term of safety and quality

calling for a specific culture more stringent than in current industry

• Large investment at the very beginning (60% of the production cost is coming from the capital cost)– Financial engineering is determinant – Construction delays

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Gas Coal Nuclear

Fuel

O&M

Capital

Cost of electricity generation


Nuclear reactors in the world

Today: 15% of the world electricity generation - 7% of primary energy use

_1


Nuclear generation timeframe

Generation I : GG, 1st LWR

Generation II : current LWR

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Generation III : EPR, AP 1000, ABWR,…

First First ReactorsReactors

Current Current ReactorsReactors

Advanced Advanced ReactorsReactors

Future Future SystemsSystems

Generation IV?


Overview on the new generation of LWR

• Areva: EPR, ATMEA (with MHI), SWR1000• AtomEnergoProekt: VVER AES 2006• Hitachi-General Electric: ABWR, ESBWR• Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power: APR 1400• Mitsubishi: APWR,ATMEA (with Areva)• Toshiba – Westinghouse: AP1000• …

AP1000 sketch EPR construction in France Japanese ABWR


Main drivers for generation 3

• Safety: – Lessons from TMI: multi failures accidents and

improved man-machine interface – Lessons from Chernobyl: prevention & mitigation of

severe accidents– Improvement of protection against external hazards

• Economy• Operability:

– Doses reduction during maintenance– Load factor

To make use of more than 10 000 years of operating experience in LWR to improve the design


Mineral world energy resources

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Speculative

Estimated

Proven

Source

US National Academy of

Science

(Cla

thra

tes)

Thousands of « quads »

(Nota : 350 quads = about 1 year of world energy consumption)

The challenge


The challenge• The technology for amplifying the energy out of

uranium resources is well known: – implement in the reactor core a breeding process to

change U238, fertile, into Pu239, fissile – and recycle the new material via reprocessing

• Fast Breeder Reactors can do that and are doing it in various countries (India, France, Japan, Russia)

• But the current technology has some drawbacks:– The safety has not reach the level of a Generation 3 LWR

reactors– Their cost is higher than a LWR– Their design has not really considered non proliferation

issues

Phenix reactor(France)


New goals for sustainable nuclear energyNew goals for sustainable nuclear energy

Systems marketable from 2040Systems marketable from 2040 onwardsonwards

True potential for newTrue potential for newapplicationsapplicationsHydrogen, potable water, heat

Internationally shared R&DInternationally shared R&D

Continuous progress : Continuous progress : - Economically competitive

- Safe and reliable

Membersof the

Generation IV International

Forum

Membersof the

Generation IV International

Forum

USAUSA

ArgentinaArgentina

BrazilBrazil

CanadaCanada

FranceFrance

JapanJapan

South AfricaSouth Africa

UnitedUnitedKingdomKingdom

South KoreaSouth Korea

SwitzerlandSwitzerland

EUEU

Break-through :- Waste minimization

- Natural resources conservation

- Proliferation resistance

ChinaChina RussiaRussia

Research toward Generation 4


What means developing a nuclear power program in term of jobs and competences !


Huge need for nuclear specialists at the world level• Why ?

– The large growth in nuclear reactors was in the end of sixties – beginning of seventies and the peoples who was hired at this time are retiring now

– The sudden increase of reactors demands during the last few years

• Where?– Vendors, for developing new designs, for manufacturing and

constructing reactors– Utilities, for preparing a program, making relevant choice, managing

orders and constructions and for preparing the operation of the new reactors

– Industry, for contributing to manufacturing, construction and maintenance & operation

– Nuclear regulators, for the licensing of new reactors and control of construction operations

– Public organizations, for preparing the countries: nuclear laws, public acceptance, wastes management, emergency situation preparedness…


The French example: nuclear employment needs For Industry: mainly AREVA, EDF and GDF- Suez

• 1 200 per year ( 2010) including 900 engineers• 1 100 per year (2011 ) including 650 engineers

For Research and Development : mainly CEA, IRSN, ASN

• 250 per year ( 2010): 50 % engineers and PhD• 200 per year (2011 ): 50 % engineers and PhD

For Sub contractors• ~ 1 000 per year ( 2012), including ~ 500 engineers• ~ 700 per year (2013 ), including ~ 300 engineers

Total manpower needs:

2 450 per year 2010 (1 500 engineers) 2 300 per year > 2010 - <2012 (1 250 engineers) 2 000 per year 2013 (950 engineers)


Basic needs for a country entering for the first time in nuclear power generation

Figures are only indicative for one plant with 2 LWR of 1000 MWe


Safety teams• Assessment of design, design changes, new procedures,

specific action or work on the reactor, and their approval• Follow-up of reference laws, rules and binding

documents in force on the plant• And, for the national nuclear regulator, decisions on

penalties in case of non compliance

Operation teamon site

Site management

Site safetycontrol team

(20 p)

Utility management

Utility safetycontrol team

(10 p)

National nuclear

regulator(100 p)

Inspection and control

People in safety teams are engineers (MSc)or experts (PhD)


Operation team on site

• Management: 10 p (PhD & MSc)• Operation: 150 p*• Maintenance & repairs: 300 p*• Logistics: 150 p*

*about 10% with a Master degree or above


Education & training for nuclear energy (1/2)

• Operation of nuclear reactors requests in general higher educated peoples than current industry: complexity & tractability

• Some jobs are very nuclear specific and require an educational degree in nuclear sciences (mostly MSc & PhD), e.g. :– Core physics (neutronics and thermal hydraulics)– Nuclear fuel– Radioprotection– Nuclear materials– Nuclear safety & quality– Nuclear process


Education & training for nuclear energy (2/2)

• Other jobs are similar to those in current industry, e.g. :– Civil engineering– Chemistry & environment– Software and signal treatment, Instrumentation & control– Electrical engineering, electro mechanics– Purchase and sales– Economy, finance– Project & risk management

• But, in addition, dedicated courses (from 2 weeks to 2 months, according to the educational level and proximity) are needed to get nuclear understanding and culture

• All organizations involved in nuclear activities should implement a tutoring process for the new comers


Conclusions

• Egypt has a nuclear power program to be deployed during the next years

• Nuclear is a very specific industry which requests specific education & training

• Education is one of the key issues for the success of the program

• Timing is essential and a clear view of the time distribution of the needs is essential, in term of number of peoples and their competencies

• Education is not enough, training is also necessary and imply international cooperation


سادتي آنساتي سيداتياالنتباه على أشكركم

مرة أزوركم أتمنىتانية


Backup


Economy


Génération IV : les six concepts innovants retenus à fin 2002

Réacteur rapide Sodium

Réacteur rapide au plomb

Réacteur à sels fondus

Réacteur rapide à gaz

Réacteur à eau supercritiqueRéacteur à gaz, Très Haute Température

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