International Seminar on the Climate System and Climate

Change

Lecture 1• Setting the scene: the IPCC and AR5

Lecture 2• Zooming in: Cities and Climate Change Adaptation in AR5

Lecture 3

• On the ground: Climate Response Planning in Durban, South Africa

Lecture 4• Where to next?: Local resilience, AR6 and the emerging

international cities and climate change science research agenda

Lecture 2

•Zooming in: Cities and Climate Change Adaptation in AR5

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

What’s New?• Strong focus on urban areas:AR5 first urban focused chapters

Cities in AR5

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

• Urban Areas (Chapter 8 WGII)• Human Settlements, Infrastructure and

Spatial Planning (Chapter 12 WGIII)

• Almost 90 % of future growth will happen in Asia and Africa.

Urban centres concentrate people and assets:

https://blog.theecoexperts.co.uk/countries-survive-climate-change-2018 The eco-experts

The countries most at risk from climate change

• Almost 90 % of future growth will happen in Asia and Africa. • Emit 75% of all carbon dioxide from energy use (Bai et al, 2018).• Responsible for most of the world’s economy and assets: 600 cities

account for 60% of the world’s GDP (MGI, 2011). • Nearly half of global GDP growth between 2010 and 2025 will come

from 440 cities in emerging markets—95 % of them small and medium-size cities (Dobbs et al, 2015) . Cities are powerful.

Urban centres concentrate people and assets:

But also vulnerable to climate change – flood, drought, extreme heat (UHI) and precipitation with food security, human health and infrastructural impacts and losses…

URBAN AREAS ARE WHERE THE CLIMATE CHANGE RUBBER HITS THE ROAD

VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE

1950

2025

• Coastal population growth and urbanisation rates are outstripping the demographic development of the hinterland (Neumann et al, 2015).

• C40/UCCRN (2018): Over 90% of all urban areas are coastal.

• Most of the world’s megacities are located in the coastal zone (Neumann et al, 2015).

• AR 5: “Sea level rise represents one of the primary shifts in urban climate change risks…”

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

What’s New?• Adaptation-development links

• Very large development and infrastructure deficits

• Most of the world’s urban population lives in low- and middle-income developing countries

• Loss of ecological infrastructure• A billion living in informal settlements – likely to triple in

the next three decades (UN-Habitat).

Underdevelopment makes cities vulnerable regardless of the type of risk:

Need the equivalent of a new city of 1 million people every five days (Bai, 2015)

16

Different and unequal abilities to access the ‘adaptation dividend’ of this urban build: Municipal annual budget per inhabitant (US$)

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS andFAILURE TO ADAPT

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE INCREASE WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS AND FAILURE/INABILITY TO ADAPT

• High level of adaption in the near term is more effective in reducing risk than in the long-term.

• In a 4oC world risks are high and generally remain high or adaption is not possible.

Key risks and potential to reduce risk through adaptation:

Key risks Adaptation issues & prospects Climate drivers Risk & potential for adapt-ation

EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONA MORE VIBRANT AND EQUITABLE WORLD

“…potential to address root causes of poverty and failures in

sustainable development, including the need for rapid progress on mitigation.” (Revi et al. 2014)

Has the ability to fundamentally change the attributes of urban

systems

Climate change

adaptation

Climate change

mitigation

Disaster risk reduction

The urban agendas

Poverty reduction and

universal provision of

services*

* Following sustainable development principles

FOCUS ON INTEGRATED DECISION-MAKING TO GENERATE MULTIPLE BENEFITS AND MANAGE TRADE-OFFS

Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

Climate change adaptation

Disaster risk reduction

The urban agendas

Climate change mitigation

More limited overlap with climate change mitigation – as consequences of investments in only emerge over

time

In era of committed climate change: large overlaps especially in low- and lower-middle income nationsReforestation - Improved water supplies - flood reduction - carbon storage

Climate change mitigation

Poverty reduction and universal provision of services

Climate change

adaptation

Disaster risk reduction

• In long-term (climate options)

• ‘dangerous’ climate change has profound influence on the other three

• Date when even strong adaptation cannot reduce risks without mitigation

• Transformative adaptation

The urban agendas

CLIMATE CHANGE 2014: IMPACTS, ADAPTATION, AND VULNERABILITY

What’s New?• Key roles of local governments - will

need to plan and manage much of the transformative adaptation that is needed.

• Unique policy competence

• Engagement with local stakeholders• Tap/influence private and household investment• Economies of scale• Integrate land use and infrastructure planning to

address adaptation and mitigation needs in a pro-poor and ecologically sustainable manner

Urban climate governance advantage

Local governments do not have all of the policy levers or the resources to get the job done

Options for effective urban climate risk governance

The Physical Science Basis

The Synthesis Report

Climate Change Impacts,

Adaptation and Vulnerability

Mitigation of

Climate Change

April 2021 April 2022October 2021

July 2021

Global stocktake 2023

UNFCCC

Global warming of

1.5 oC

October 2018 September 2019

August 2019

Talanoa (Facilitative)

dialogueUNFCCC

An even greater focus on cities in AR6 (2015-2022)

Cities and Climate Change Science Conference (March 2018)

Global Warming of 1.5°C: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty

• Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change

• Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication, and reducing inequalities

Climate Change and Land: An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems

• Chapter 6: Interlinkages between desertification, land degradation, food security and GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and integrated response options

IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

• Chapter 4: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

2020 projected population per 1×1 latitude/longitude grid cell (around 100 square kilometers) using data from the Gridded Population of the World version 4 (GPWv4).https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-warming-varies-greatly-depending-where-you-live