international journal of research in economics and...

International Journal of Research in Economics and Social Sciences (IJRESS) Available online at: http://euroasiapub.org

Vol. 7 Issue 12, December- 2017

ISSN(o): 2249-7382 | Impact Factor: 6.939 |

International Journal of Research in Economics & Social Sciences

Email:- [email protected], http://www.euroasiapub.org

(An open access scholarly, peer-reviewed, interdisciplinary, monthly, and fully refereed journals.)

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Assessing the success of E-Car India –Delhi vs World

Gaurav Gupta1,

Research Scholar, UPES Dehradun

Dr. Rajesh Gupta2

Associate Professor, UPES Dehradun

Dr. S. Selvam, Associate Professor, NPTI-Southern Region

Abstract:

Car has become one of the preferred mode of transportation and facilitate the society by providing

autonomy and liberty of mobility over the last so many years which leads to tremendous growth

in number of ICE car in the world. But oil scarcity and pollution emission by the ICE car is a major

threat for the ICE technology and this technology cannot be seen as a preferred mode of

transportation in future. Keeping this in mind many countries in the world aggressively making

strategies for the adoption e-vehicles and ditch petrol, diesel and gasoline vehicles.

India has also announced to replace all ICE car by E car by the end of 2030. As Delhi is one of the

most polluted city of the world and has maximum number of ICE cars in India so adoption of e car

in Delhi will surely reduce the pollution thus improved health and reduce the dependency on

imported oil thus controlling fiscal deficit. This paper is basically a detailed study for the adoption

status of E car India - Delhi vs world.

Key words: Transportation, ICE car, Oil scarcity, Technology, Adoption, E car

Introduction:

Due to potential benefits of E car in terms of oil scarcity and zero emission as compare to ICE Car

many countries want to adopt the electric car as a preferred mode of transportation as compare

to ICE car. India, Norway, Britain and many other countries all wholly want to transformed from

ICE car to Green car. The official target set by various countries for the adoption of Electric car is

discussed below.

India: India, which suffers from an especially acute air quality problem, is home to many of the

world's most polluted cities. It also imports more than 80 % of crude oil. As per the government

every vehicle sold in the country should be powered by electricity by 2030.

Britain: In 2040 Britain will stop the sales of any ICE car to clean up the country air. By 2050, all

cars on the road will need to have zero emissions.

International Journal of Research in Economics and Social Sciences (IJRESS) Vol. 7 Issue 12, December- 2017, ISSN(o): 2249-7382 | Impact Factor: 6.939



(An open access scholarly, peer-reviewed, interdisciplinary, monthly, and fully refereed journal)

86

France: France government also decided to end selling ICE cars by 2040 to support global

warming. After that they will only allow environment friendly car which uses electricity as a fuel

or some other cleaner fuel.

Norway: Norway is leading the world in e car market. About 40% of all cars sold in the country

last year were electric or hybrid vehicles. Norway government is quiet ahead for the adoption

of E Car they have a clear target for the adoption of E car. All new passenger cars and vans sold

in 2025 should be zero-emission vehicles.

China – It is the biggest E Car market which buys more cars than any other country. China

accounts for more than 40% of the electric cars sold in the world and more than double the

number sold in the U.S., according to the IEA.

The others: Japan, Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Portugal, Korea and Spain

have also set official targets for electric car sales according to the International Energy Agency.

The United States doesn't have a federal policy, but at least eight states have set out goals.

Source: CNNMoney (London)First published July 26, 2017

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/autos/countries-that-are-banning-gas-cars-for-

electric/index.html

Countries with maximum number of E car adoption

Almost 95% of the of E -car sold worldwide are in just ten countries: These countries are China,

the United States, Canada, Japan, and the six leading European countries Norway, the Netherlands,

the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Sweden. China was the largest electric market in the

year 2016. with 336 thousand new electric cars registered. Electric car sales in China were more

than double the amount in the United States, where 2016 electric car registrations recovered to

160 thousand units after a slight drop in the previous year.

Worldwide mostly adopted E Car Models

As of December 2016, the world's top selling highway legal all-electric car in history is the Nissan

Leaf with global sales of over 250,000 units, followed by the Tesla Model S with more than

158,000 units delivered worldwide. Ranking next are the BMW i with about 65,500 units, and

the Renault Zoe with 61,205 units, both through December 2016. Until June 2016 the Mitsubishi

i-MiEV family ranked fifth with about 37,600 units delivered globally.

Worldwide Market Share of E car:

In terms of electric car market share in the year 2016, six countries cross above 1 % of their

PLDV sales.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/autos/countries-that-are-banning-gas-cars-for-electric/index.html

http://money.cnn.com/2017/07/26/autos/countries-that-are-banning-gas-cars-for-electric/index.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_S

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BMW_i

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe





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Norway was the leader and secure number 1 position with a 29 % market share because of

favorable policy environment and, large range of incentives from tax breaks and exemptions to

waivers on road tolls and ferry fee.

Netherland stands at second position with a 6.4% electric car market share and Sweden stands

with a 3.4% share. China, France and the United Kingdom all had electric car market shares close

to 1.5%.

In 2016, China was by far the largest electric car market, accounting for more than 40% of the

electric cars sold in the world and more than double the amount sold in the United States. Until

2015, the United States accounted for the largest portion of the global electric car stock. In 2016,

China became the country with the largest electric car stock, with about a third of the global total.

European countries

The main European countries related to E car adoption are Norway, Neither land, United Kingdom,

Sweden, France and Germany. In 2016 three quarter of the total car sold were BEV and only one

quarter were PHEVs in France. In contrast, in the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom,

the majority of electric cars registered in 2016 were PHEVs. In Japan, Norway on average, electric

car sales were more equally split between BEVs and PHEVs

Asian Countries

The main Asian countries related to E car adoption are China, Japan, Russia and India. In 2016

three quarter of the total car sold were BEV and only one quarter were PHEVs in China.

Rest of world

In the rest of the world, on average, electric car sales were more equally split between BEVs and

PHEVs.

Source: Global EV outlook 2017





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Detailed Analysis of E car sales in world

Worldwide E car stock

The global electric car stock surpassed 2 million units in 2016 after crossing the 1 million vehicle

threshold in 2015. But it is only .2 % of total PLDVs in circulation worldwide. 80 % of the total

global stock is hold by top five countries and top ten countries holds 95 % of stock similar to E Car

Sales.

China and the United States make up 60% of the global electric car stock. European countries,

combined, account for most of the rest, representing 28% of the global total. China surpassed the

United States in 2016 in total electric car stock, becoming the country with the most EVs on its

road network. This evolution is primarily due to China’s rapidly growing BEV market, where BEVs

have continued to dominate over PHEVs.

The global BEV stock has experienced a higher annual growth rate than that of PHEVs since 2013.

In 2016, BEVs grew by 62%, while PHEVs grew by 59%. The narrative changes if China is not

considered: when excluding China, the growth rate of the global PHEV stock has been higher than

for BEVs since 2009, with only the exception of 2014. As in the case of sales, different countries

have different characteristics.

The electric car stock in China, France and Norway is primarily composed of BEVs. The

Netherlands is clearly the country with the largest share of PHEVs in its stock, at 88% of the total.

A third group of countries, including Canada and the United States, have a fairly even distribution

of PHEV and BEVs in their stock.

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwj31LXh5fLXAhXCkpQKHTRvBWIQjRwIBw&url=https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution&psig=AOvVaw33pDQMMIe44BINb1-D8JLs&ust=1512560586969401





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Source: Global EV outlook 2017

Growth is Accelerating

The sales of Plug in Volume have increased by almost more than thrice since 2013. And if it

continuing on the same growth rate of 42 % would mean 8 out of 10 cars sold in 2030 would be

Plug-ins. Unbelievable today, but not impossible to happen. The world picture shows that the

global market crossed the 1% market share this

year, but in some markets, it is already far above that like: Norway had 29 % plug-in share,

Netherland 6.5% share and Sweden around 4.0 %.

Source: EV Volume.com





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Global Plug-in Deliveries for Q3-2017 and YTD

2017 Global plug-in vehicle sales until September were over 764 000 units, 46 % higher than the

same period of 2016. These include all global BEV and PHEV passenger cars sales, light trucks in

USA/Canada and light commercial vehicle in Europe. In Q3, 66 % of sales were pure electric (BEV)

and 34 % were plug-in hybrids (PHEV). All-electric vehicles have been winning share, as the BEV-

friendly Chinese market continues to win importance.

Q3 growth rates were influenced by the accelerating Chinese market, with the USA and

Europe following it closely. The Toyota Prius Prime PHEV became an instant best-seller in Japan

and pulled that market up.


.Healthy Growth in All Regions

With the subsidy constraints a thing of the past, China is back at the global driver seat: It has

increased sales by 49 % YoY, adding over 100 000 units to last year result of 227 000

units. Europe (+39%) and the USA (+31%) have also grown significantly, with the remaining

markets going even faster, with Japan (+103%), South Korea and Canada leading the way.

New: Others include 20 countries in the Americas, Africa, Middle East and Asia/Oceania, most of

them where plug-ins are still sold in very small numbers.


Evident Trend Towards More BEV Sales

In Europe, the BEV portion in the mix is still around 50 %, these numbers are heavily influenced

by the PHEV-friendly "company car" sales, because many countries do not make sufficient





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distinction between BEV and PHEV incentives, fleet managers purchase PHEVs for their

companies solely with the intention of maximizing fiscal benefits.

The situation has been corrected this year in The Netherlands, with companies only having fiscal

benefits in BEVs, leading to a dramatic shift in the sales mix, if in 2016 BEVs only accounted for

17% of plug-in sales, this year they represent 86%.

Other countries are said to follow this move, with proposals currently being discussed in Belgium

and Sweden in order to cut PHEV incentives next year.

Driven by high growth in China, where BEVs typically stand for over 80 % of "NEV" (New Energy

Vehicle) sales, pure electric models continue to recover ground to PHEVs, with its Q3 share (66%)

being the highest since 2011.


The Rise of China

To control smog, pollution and traffic congestion Chinese government designed some

programmed in the past and result is before us. As one can see from the graph, the major volume

driver for PEV expansion has been China, with this country being responsible for almost half of

sales this year. Substantial subsidy, Ev sales allowances ICE use restrictions etc. pushed the sales

of the Plug in vehicle to over 2%.





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China leads in Cars and Buses

For the complete 2017, EV Volume.com expect passenger car NEV sales to reach 530 000 units,

80 % of them BEVs and 20 % Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV). China remains the largest market for Plug-

Ins by a considerable margin, with over 90 % of sales from domestic OEM, China is also the largest

producer of Plug-ins.


Over One Million Plug-ins on the Road in China

An estimated 800 000 NEV passenger cars are in operation in China today. By the end of 2017,

their number is likely to exceed 1,1 million, which puts China in the lead before USA and Europe.

With around 175 million passenger cars in operation, their share is a mere 0,66 %, but higher than

in other regions.

5 million NEVs on the road by the end of 2020 is a previously stated target of Chinese authorities.

This is for all vehicle types combined, including LCVs, trucks and buses. With the current rates of

NEV adoption, this target can be reached or even exceeded.





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NORWAY

Regarding plug-in share, Norway is the undisputed leader, with 32%; no other country is even

close to this result. In 2016, the share was 24 %.

Plug-in sales in Norway summed up 43 700 passenger cars and light commercial vehicles this year,

until the end of September. This is a 29 % growth over the same period in 2016, when 33 900 units

were delivered. Norway is the third largest market for electrically chargeable vehicles, only USA

and China have higher plug-in sales.

Norway Plug-in Sales Q3-2017 and YTD

Once known for its preference for BEVs over PHEVs, the introduction of higher tax savings on

PHEVs, changed significantly the mix in 2015 and 2016, with plug-in hybrids winning share. This

year the picture isn't much different, with sales of pure EVs winning just 1% share (56 %) over

PHEVs (44%). 2018 may see a slow recovery from BEVs, and EV Volume expect the EV / PHEV

split to be around 70 / 30 sometime in 2019.

The Netherlands

Vehicle taxation changes, effective 1.1.2016 lead to extraordinary high sales of new cars in general

and plug-in hybrids in particular. In total for 2015, plug-in vehicle reached 43 300 units, +183 %

over 2014, making NL the largest market for this vehicle sector in Europe and the 3rd largest

worldwide. PEV share was 8.5 % for the year, the world’s second highest after Norway.





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Too many PHEVs in the mix

The taxation scheme in NL is tough on cars with high emissions. It follows a progressive pattern;

pure EVs pay little or no taxes, PHEVs ≤ 50 g CO2/km get strong tax reductions. For a

vehicle emitting e.g. 174-gram CO2 per km the registration tax (B.M.P.) is around €15 000. Also,

the company car taxation is heavily depending on the CO2 emission. These taxes depend on the

registration date of the vehicle.

For all vehicles acquired after 31 December 2015, CO2 brackets are lowered and the cost per g

CO2 increases. For PHEVs ≤ 50 g CO2/km the road tax exemption ends and the benefit in kind

value (BIK) for company car taxation is raised from 7 % to 15 % of the vehicles value; it is 25 %

for conventional cars. For pure EVs, the BIK value is lowered from 4 % to nil.

This is designed to promote pure EV sales and decrease the PHEV share in the mix. The PHEV

share in NL is the highest among all markets we are tracking. With an all-electric range of 50 km

or less, their contribution to GHG reduction is questionable, especially when daily battery

charging routines are not maintained.





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United Kingdom 3rd Quarter of 2015 and YTD

U.K. numbers are still preliminary but indicate another leap forward plug-in vehicle sales.

USA Plug-in Vehicle Sales

USA is the 2nd largest market for Plug-ins, but growth and market share are less impressive than

in many other developed economies. CAGR was 54 % from 2011 to 2016, which compares to 72%

worldwide and 143 % in China. Nearly 50 % of USA plug-in sales are in California and only 38 %

are outside the 10 states with ZEV mandates.





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California

Nearly 50 % of US Plug-in sales are still in California. The other 9 states with ZEV mandates (CT,

ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT) stand for 13 %. The data shows the accumulated sales between

January 2011 and October 2016. The 10 ZEV States typically have a combined 28 % of the total

vehicle market but their share in Plug-in sales is around 62 %.

India:

As of now India had only one electric car e20 + by Mahindra. Recently Mahindra has also launched

second e car named e vertigo. Tata has also started focusing on E Car. Even after the launch of

NEMMP which had a target of 6-7 million electric vehicles on road by 2020 out of which the 3-4

million would be e car.





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E- Car Market in Delhi

Pilot study for Proposed vs Actual sales in Delhi

Sample

Proposed Sales Actual Sales Gap Gap(%)

Dealer 1 50*12=600 2*12=24 (4%) 576 96%

Dealer 2 50*12=600 1*12=12(2%) 588 98%

Dealer 3 No response No response No response No response

NCR sales Head 100*12= 1200 20*12=240(20%) 960 80 %

Conclusion:

From the above data of the world and for few individual countries it is clear that many countries

are doing well as far as E car success is concerned as compare to India. India’s condition is not

really appreciating as depicts by sales figure and stock. India electric car market share is only .02 %

for 2015-16. The new E Car registration in India in 2016 is only .45 thousand i.e. 450 only while

in China it is 257 thousand. As per the data since 2008 India has managed to sell only about 4000

E cars. As far as E car stock is concerned, India has only 4.80 thousand stocks for 2016 while china

has 483 thousand stocks for 2016. Being the most polluted city of the world - Delhi is really

struggling for the successful adoption of zero emission car. So, it is matter of concern to

understand why consumer is not ready to adopt the E car is in Delhi -India view even after almost





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15-16 years of its launch while it is the need of the hour from oil scarcity and pollution -health

point of view.

References:

Department of Heavy Industry, Government of India, National Electric Mobility Mission Plan

2020

TERI, Business council for sustainable Development

Electric vehicles in India , Rekha Salvi, O&N India Sreehari B. Nambiar, O&N India

Electric vehicle: a futuristic approach to reduce pollution (A case study of Delhi)

Sustainability outlook forum http://www.sustainabilityoutlook.in/content/market-analysis-

case-electric-and-hybrid-vehicles-india

http://cea.nic.in/reports/others/thermal/tpece/cdm_co2/user_guide_ver10.pdf Document

Number: ISGF – 2015 Version 1.0 Dated December 2015

Global EV outlook 2016

Global EV outlook 2017

EV volume.com

Hindustan Times

Economics Times

Business Standard

Tradingeconomics.com

www.ibef.org

http://www.sustainabilityoutlook.in/content/market-analysis-case-electric-and-hybrid-vehicles-india

http://www.sustainabilityoutlook.in/content/market-analysis-case-electric-and-hybrid-vehicles-india

http://www.ibef.org/

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