international development in hard times: reflecting on the...
TRANSCRIPT
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International Development in hard times:
Reflecting on the major multilateral replenishments of 2013
Richard Manning, former Chair, OECD/DAC
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Does Aid Matter to Middle-Income Countries?
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Does Aid Matter to Low-Income Countries?
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OECD Projections before the Replenishments (constant US$ million 2012)
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10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
2012 2013 2013 2015 2016
Bilateral CPA, gross
Mulyilateral CPA, gross
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The significance of the three Replenishments: IDA, GF and AfDF account for 60% of all multilateral CPA,
excluding EU Institutions
AfDF
Global Fund
IDA
Other, excluding EU
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CPA from the three Institutions, 2003-2012 (constant US$ million)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
AfDF
Global Fund
IDA
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The development budget 2014-2020
Commitments €bn
MFF 2014-
2020
MFF 2007-
2013
MFF 2007-2013
Share of the
total budget
MFF 2014-2020
Share of the
total budget
1. Smart & inclusive growth 450.76 446.31 4.45 1.0% 44.9% 47.0%
2. Natural resources 373.18 420.68 -47.50 -11.3% 42.4% 38.9%
3. Security and Citizenship 15.69 12.37 3.32 26.8% 1.2% 1.6%
4. Global Europe 58.70 56.82 1.89 3.3% 5.7% 6.1%
5. Administration 61.63 57.08 4.55 8.0% 5.7% 6.4%
Commitments €bn EDF 11 EDF 10
European Development Fund 26.98 26.93 0.05 0.2%
Growth 2007-2013
v. 2014-2020
Growth EDF 10 v.
EDF 11
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Comparison of present and proposed external actions instruments
€ billion in 2011 prices
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Donor Contributions to the Three Major Replenishments of 2013 (Million SDRs for AfDF and IDA; Million US$ for GF)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
AfDF (AfDF Total) Global Fund IDA (IDA Total)
2007
2010
2013
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Donor Contributions to AfDF (Million SDRs)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Europe US/CAN JPN/KOR NON-DAC
ADF11
ADF12
ADF13
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Top Ten Donors to AfDF
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
UK Germany US France Japan Sweden Canada Italy Norway Netherlands Other
ADF11
ADF12
ADF13
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Donor Contributions to Global Fund (million US$)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Europe
US/CAN/ANZ
JPN/KOR
NON-DAC
PRIVATE
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Top Ten Donors to the Global Fund
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
GF2
GF3
GF4
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Donor Contributions to IDA (Million SDRs)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Europe US/CAN/ANZ JPN/KOR NON-DAC
IDA 15
IDA 16
IDA17
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Top Ten Donors to IDA
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
UK US Japan Germany France Canada Italy Spain Netherlands Sweden All Other
IDA15
IDA16
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Voting Shares in AfDB, 31 December 2006 and 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
TOTAL, Europe TOTAL, US/CAN/ANZ TOTAL, JPN/KOR TOTAL, NON-DAC
2006
2012
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Voting Shares in IBRD, 30 June 2007 and 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Europe US/CAN/ANZ JPN NON-DAC (China)
2007
2013
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GNI, US$ billion, PPP, current prices, 2006 and 2013
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
EU CAN/US/ANZ KOR/JPN BRICS
2006
2012
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The Demand Side: a Shrinking Clientele for IDA
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The Significance of non-Core Funding
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2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
World Bank Group core
World Bank Group non-
core
UN Funds and Progs
core
UN Funds and Progs non-core
Other UN core
Other UN non-core
Regional DBs core
Regional DBs non-core
Other multilaterals
core
Other multilaterals
non-core
2007
2009
2010
2011
2012
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Summary of Conclusions
• The multilateral ‘system’ is not about to collapse: indeed some parts are increasingly self-financing
• There are however signs of strain:
– Little real growth
– Continued dependence on traditional donors
– Shrinking client base
• More work needed on adapting governance to changing realities
• Balance needed between
– performance orientation and need/fragility
– issue-based and country-based funds
– core resources and trust funds
• Multilateralism matters
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THANK YOU!