international conference Соціально-демографічні зрушення:...
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International conference Соціально-демографічні зрушення: чинники та перспективи,
17-18 грудня 2013 року, Київ, Україна
Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions in Lithuania in the context of low fertility and
economic instability
Vlada StankūnienėDemographic Research Centre,Vytautas Magnus University, Kaunas, Lithuania andLithuanian Social Research Centre
STATISTICAL DATA: Lithunian statistics Human fertility data base EUROSTAT
SURVEYS: Main (international): Generations and Gender Survey, 1st wave (GGS1), Lithuania, 2006
Generations and Gender Survey, 2nd wave (GGS2), Lithuania 2009
Additional/ comparative: International: Fertility and Family Survey (FFS), Lithuania, 1994/95
Population Policy Acceptance Study (PPA), in Lithuania 2001
National: Needs of Family Policy (FP), 2010
DATA, SOURCES
SURVEYS:
18-49 Total
FP, 2010 1000 1000
GGS2, Lithuania 2009 5000 8000
GGS1, Lithuania, 2006 6300 10000
PPA, in Lithuania 2001 900 1500
FFS, Lithuania, 1994/95 5000 5000
DATA, SOURCES, No
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Lithuanian statistics
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Lithuania, 1990-2012
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2,1
1,5
1,3
Source: Lithuanian statistics
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Lithuania, 1990-2012
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE: Eastern and Central European countries
Sources: Eurostat 2010; Federal 2010; Naselenie 1988; Otchiot 2009; Recent 2004; State 2010; Demografijos, 2013
PTFR
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
2,40
2,60
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Czech R.
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Lithuania
Romania
Poland
Slovak R.
Slovenia
Belorussia
Russia
Ukraine
Bulgaria
RF
LF
LLF
Sources: Eurostat 2010; Federal 2010; Naselenie 1988; Otchiot 2009; Recent 2004; State 2010; Statistikos 2011
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Austrija
Danija
Prancūzija
V.Vokietija
Nyderlandai
Švedija
D.Britanija
Graikija
Italija
Portugalija
Ispanija
Suomija
Belgija
LiuksemburgasLietuva
RG
ŽG
ŽŽG
PSGR TOTAL FERTILITY RATE: Western European countriesPTFR
X
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2,4
2,6
2,8
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE, Lithuania, 1960-2012
FDT, end
SDT, beginning
2-2,2
X
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
1960 1975 1990
A
Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base
Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania
X
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
1990 2005
B
Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base
Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
1990 2005 2012
B
Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base
Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania
1990
1995
2005
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
2005
2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base
Age-specific fertility rates, Lithuania, 1990-2012
22
23
24
25
26
27
1,0
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
1,6
1,7
1,8
1,9
2,0
2,1
199
01
99
11
99
21
99
31
99
41
99
51
99
61
99
71
99
81
99
92
00
02
00
12
00
22
00
32
00
42
00
52
00
62
00
72
00
82
00
92
01
02
01
12
01
2
Me
an a
ge
at firs
t b
irth
Toa
tal
fert
ility
ra
te
TFR MAB1
Source: Lithuanian statistics; Human fertility data base
Total fertility rate and mean age at first birth
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
TFR adjTFR
Source: Human fertility data base; Bongaarts,Feeney, 2010, 1998
Total fertility rate and adjusted total fertility rate
X
1,7
1,75
1,8
1,85
1,9
1,95
2
2,05
2,1
2,15
19
95
20
01
20
06
20
09
20
10
Have children Total
Desired
Sources: FFS, GGS_2006, GGS_2009, PPA_2001; FP_2010
Desired number of children
18-49
1,7
1,75
1,8
1,85
1,9
1,95
2
2,05
2,1
2,15
2001
2006
2009
2010
Have children All respondents
Intended to have
Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, PPA_2001; FP_2010
Fertility intentions
18-49
1,7
1,75
1,8
1,85
1,9
1,95
2
2,05
2,1
2,15
19
95
20
01
20
06
20
09
20
10
Have children Total
Desired
1,7
1,75
1,8
1,85
1,9
1,95
2
2,05
2,1
2,15
20
01
20
06
20
09
20
10
Have children All respondents
Intended to have
Sources: FFS, GGS_2006, GGS_2009, PPA_2001; FP_2010
Number of children: desired and intended to have
18-49 X
Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions (1)
I. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by gender:
Differences between fertility intentions of men and women are considerable different
Changes of fertility intentions trajectory in economic fluctuation are different
II. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by age:
Decline in fertility intention among youngest is more evident (men and women).
During economic decline reaction of youngest (men/women) is most expressed
III. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by education:
Highest fertility intentions among the men with university education.
Fertility intentions of men with higher education are not affected even by economic fluctuations
Among women, differences of fertility intentions by education is not very expressed even in economic downturn
Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions (2)
IV. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by employment:
Fertility intentions of employed men are highest irrespective of the economic situation
Among women, differences of fertility intentions by employment status is not very expressed even during economic fluctiuations
V. Sociodemographic differences of fertility intentions by residence:
The highest differences (men/ women, especially men) are by residence
Vilnius, capital of Lithuania stands out, conspicuously, by the highest fertility intention indicators (men/ women).
Sub-populations of small and middle towns are most affected by unfavourable conditions especially in economic instability
1,73
1,91,84
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2006 2009 2010
20-29 30-3940-49 Total
Males
1,831,87
1,91
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2006 2009 2010
20-29 30-3940-49 Total
Females
Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, FP_2010
Fertility intentions: number of children by age of respondent
20-49
1,96
1,83
1,58
1,83
1,58
2,00
1,95
1,88
1,61
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2006 2009 2010
Higher SeconduryLower sec.
Males
1,74
1,80
2,02
1,85
1,87
1,93
1,92
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2006 2009 2010Higher Secondury
Lower sec.
Females
Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, FP_2010
Fertility intentions: number of children by education of respondent
20-49
Fertility intentions: number of children by employment of respondent
20-49
1.75
1.57
1.45
1.911.93
1.65
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2006 2009 2010
Employed Unemployed
Males
1.72
1.75 1.7
1.82 1.9
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2006 2009 2010
Employed Unemployed
Females
2,12
1,75
1,62
1,44
1,93
1,85
1,77
2,02
2,19
1,78
1,74
1,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2006 2009 2010
Vilnius >100 tūkst.
10-100 tūkst. <10 tūkst.
Males
2,02
1,75 1,73
1,81
1,74
1,53
1,9
2,05
2,16
1,66
2,05
2,07
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
2,2
2006 2009 2010
Vilnius >100 tūkst.
10-100 tūkst. <10 tūkst.
FemalesVilnius
Sources: GGS_2006, GGS_2009, FP_2010
Fertility intentions: number of children by residence of respondent
20-49
2,01
1,91
1,77
2,10 2,06
1,84
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2006 2009 2010
Married In cohabit.
Men
1,991,97
1,85
2,082,03
1,95
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
2006 2009 2010
Married In cohabit.
Women
Fertility intentions: number of children by marital status of respondent
20-49 X
Factors
Odds ratio Exp(B)
2006 2009
Men Women Men Women
Age
20-24 1 1 1 1
25-29 0,536** 0,761 0,572* 0,428**
30-34 0,205*** 0,202*** 0,267*** 0,133***
35–39 0,070*** 0,045*** 0,063*** 0,042***
Education
Higher 1 1 1 1
Secondary 1,036 0,819 1,314 0,537**
Lower than secondary 0,676 1,208 0,415** 0,369
Residence
>10 000 1 1 1 1
10 001–100 000 1,032 0,603 0,775 0,892
100 001–500 000 1,182 0,958 0,616* 0,792
Vilnius 3,733*** 5,356*** 1,892* 2,278*
Estimations of household’s total monthly income: is household able to make ends meet
Very easily + easily 0,879 0,836 1,892 1,503
Fairly easily 1,327 0,604 2,541*** 1,133
With some difficulty1,164 0,476
*1,529 1,292
With great difficulty + with difficulty 1 1 1 1
Significance level: * 5 (per 100), ** 1 (per 100) ir *** 1 (per 1000).
Factors of intentions to have two children. 20-39 years old childless respondents
Highest differences:
By residence – men/women
By education – men
Wellbeing of household -men
-24
-19
-14
-9
-4
1
6
11
16
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
GD
P (
%)
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
2,00
2,20
To
tal f
ert
ility
ra
te
GDP (%) PTFR
Source: Lithuanian statistics
Dynamic of total fertility rate and change of gross domestic product
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