internatioanal finance chapter 12 national income accounting & balance of payments...
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INTERNATIOANAL FINANCE
INTERNATIOANAL FINANCE
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CHAPTER 12
National Income Accounting National Income Accounting
&&
Balance of PaymentsBalance of Payments国民收入核算与国际收支
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Review National income identity for a closed economyNational income identity for a closed economy
: , GNP , GNP or NIY output
: consumptionC
: goverment purchasesG
: investmentI
Y C I G
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National income identity for an open economy
: exports : importsEX IM
Y C I G EX
Internal economy
external economy
The GNP identity for open economies shows how theThe GNP identity for open economies shows how thenational income a country earns by selling its goods andnational income a country earns by selling its goods andis divided between sales to domestic residents and sales is divided between sales to domestic residents and sales
to foreign residents.to foreign residents.
IM
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The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness
Current account balance (CA): Current account balance (CA): The difference between exports of goods and The difference between exports of goods and services and imports of goods and services.services and imports of goods and services.
EX IM
then Current Account
then Current Account
If EX – IM < 0,
If EX – IM > 0,
CA ( )Y C I G
CA
Deficit
Surplus
经常项目余额
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Absorption Approach to Balance of Payments
( )CA Y C I G
AAbsorption
CA Y A
If If CA < 0,CA < 0, then then Y < Y < A.A.If If CA > 0,CA > 0, then then Y > Y > A.A.
国际收支吸收分析法
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Policy Implication of the Theory
CA Y A
If If CA < 0,CA < 0, then then Y < AY < A
If If CA > 0,CA > 0, then then Y > AY > A
..
..
∵ ∵ A = C + I + G A = C + I + G
∴ ∴ Fiscal policy should be used .Fiscal policy should be used .
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The above expression implies that an open economy can save either by building up its capital stock or by acquiring foreign wealth.
Saving and Current Account
The expression
implies that a closed
economy can save
only by build-ing up
its capital stock.
national saving
S = Y – C - G
∵ ∴ S = I
National saving always equals investment plus current account balance.
In an open economy
∵ ∴ S = I + CA
In a closed economy
National saving always equals investment.
= C + I +
GY + I + G
+ CA
Y
=
C - - + - -=
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Two – Gap Theory
∵ CA = EX - IM
∴ S = I + (EX - IM)
In an open economy
∴
Forex gap
Saving gap
S - I = EX - IM
If S<I, then EX – IM, and vice versa.
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Balance of Payments AccountsA country’s balance of payments accounts keep A country’s balance of payments accounts keep
track of both its payments to and its reciepts from track of both its payments to and its reciepts from
foreigners .foreigners .
Three types of international transactions:Three types of international transactions:
1. exports and imports of goods and servises1. exports and imports of goods and servises
2. purchase or sales of financial assets2. purchase or sales of financial assets
3. other transfers of wealth between countries3. other transfers of wealth between countries
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Simple rule of double-entry bookkeeping
Every international transaction Every international transaction automatically enters the balance of payments automatically enters the balance of payments twice , once as a credit and once as a debit.twice , once as a credit and once as a debit.
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Relative concepts ( I )Capital account: international asset movement Capital account: international asset movement
resulting from nonmarket activitiesresulting from nonmarket activities
Financial account: all international purchases Financial account: all international purchases or sales of financial assetsor sales of financial assets
Financial (or capital) flowsFinancial (or capital) flows
Financial (or capital) inflow Financial (or capital) inflow
purchase or sale purchase or sale of an asset from of an asset from or to foreigners or to foreigners
purchase of purchase of an asset from an asset from foreignes foreignes
sale of an asset sale of an asset to foreigners to foreigners
Financial (or capital) outflow Financial (or capital) outflow
资本帐户或资本项目
金融帐户或金融项目
资本流动
资本内流
资本外流
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Relative concepts ( II )Statistical discrepency :Statistical discrepency :
CA + Capital account + Net foreign assets heldCA + Capital account + Net foreign assets heldOfficial international reserves :Official international reserves :
foreign assets held by central banks as a cushion foreign assets held by central banks as a cushion against national economic misfortuneagainst national economic misfortune
Official foreign exchange intervention : Official foreign exchange intervention : central banks buy or sell international reserves central banks buy or sell international reserves in private asset marketin private asset market
CA + Capital account + Net foreign assets heldCA + Capital account + Net foreign assets held
foreign assets held by central banks as a cushion foreign assets held by central banks as a cushion against national economic misfortuneagainst national economic misfortune
central banks buy or sell international central banks buy or sell international reserves in private asset marketreserves in private asset market
统计误差
官方国际储备
官方外汇干预
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Fundamental BOP IdentityCurrent account + Capital account + Financial account = 0Current account + Capital account + Financial account = 0
CFACFA
CA + CFA = 0CA + CFA = 0 or or CA = - CFACA = - CFA
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Question
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Thanks