interim report q1 2019 - goodvalley...interim report q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20...

14
INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 CONFERENCE CALL 27 MAY 2019

Upload: others

Post on 24-May-2020

5 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

INTERIM REPORTQ1 2019

CONFERENCE CALL 27 MAY 2019

Page 2: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Agenda

1

DISCLAIMERThis presentation contains forward-looking statements.

Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties as various factors, many of which are beyond Goodvalley A/S’ control, may cause actual developments and results to differ materially from the expectations contained in the presentation.

WELCOME TO GOODVALLEY

GROUP HIGHLIGHTS

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

SEGMENTS

GROUP FINANCIALS

OUTLOOK 2019

Q&A SESSION

SPEAKERS

TOM AXELGAARDCEO

Founded Goodvalley in 1994

HANS HENRIK PEDERSEN

CFO

Goodvalley since 2016

Interim Report Q1 2019

Page 3: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Group highlightsGOODVALLEY MAINTAINED STRONG PERFORMANCE IN THE FACE OF CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS

2

FINANCIALS EFFICIENCY ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE

DKK 322mRevenue declined to DKK 322 due to lower pig prices following a continued oversupply of meat in the market

11.5%Adjusted EBITDA of DKK 37 million, yielding an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.5%

33 pigs per sowThe Group reached a record-level of33 pigs sold per sow

2.74 kiloStable and low feed conversion ratio of2.74 kilo feed per kilo pork

5.78 meat to feed ratioThe meat to feed ratio dropped significantly from 7.13 in Q1 2018driven by higher feed prices andlower pig prices

OrganisationTime and resources have been devotedin building strong teams acrossmarkets, making the company ready for future growth

Board of DirectorsGoodvalley welcomedLeif Bergwall Hansen to the Board ofDirectors

2019Maintains outlook for 2019 with an expected revenue of 1,400-1,550 millionand adjusted EBITDA of 220-280 million

Generational changeJuly 1st Tom Axelgaard willhand over the CEO position to Hans Henrik Pedersen in a well-planned generationalchange

Interim Report Q1 2019

Page 4: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Market developments

3

1 EU average based on EU (weighted average) market prices for pig carcass grade E in the E.U. (European Commission)Source: Company information and World Bank (Global Economy Prospects, January 2018). Real growth based on constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights

2014-2018 PIG PRICES DKK/KG (CARCASS WEIGHT )

POLAND

• Lower pig and pork prices and high feed costs

REVENUE

UKRAINE

• Lower pig prices and higher feed prices

• Decreased volumes from lower weight gain due to feed composition

REVENUE

RUSSIA

• Optimised operational performance based on LEAN initiatives

REVENUE

66%of total

-7%growth

23%of total

-17%growth

11%of total

6%growth

Interim Report Q1 2019

0

5

10

15

20

Q4 2015Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016Q3 2015Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

Goodvalley Poland Goodvalley Ukraine Goodvalley Russia EU average

Page 5: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Pig segment

4

Revenue and earnings in the pig segment were under pressure • Low pig prices across our markets at an avg. of DKK 9.96 per kg • Lower volumes in Ukraine• A significant drop in the meat to feed ratio to 5.78

Continued operational improvements • Increased number of pigs sold per sow to 33.0 from 32.2 in

comparison period• Maintained stable feed conversion ratio at 2.74 (Q1 2018: 2.75).

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018

External revenue 138 149 605

Internal revenue 78 98 420

REVENUE 216 247 1,025

EBITDA 33 81 200

ADJUSTED EBITDA 28 57 210

ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN 12.8% 23.1% 20.5

PIGS SOLD PER SOW, HEADS

PIGS SOLD, THOUSAND TONNES (LIVE WEIGHT)

PIG PRICE, DKK/KG AND MEAT TO FEED RATIO

Interim Report Q1 2019

30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0

101520253035

Q2 2018Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Series

29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4 30.326.3

0

10

20

30

40

Q1 2019Q4 2018Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018

11.26 10.68 11.31 11.24 10.80 9.967.35 7.13 7.13 6.62 6.48 5.78

0

5

10

15

0

5

10

15

Q3 2018Q2 2018Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019

Page 6: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Food segment

5

Decline in volumes and revenue• Oversupply of pork in Europe led to lower pig prices

• Split between deboned and value-added products remained largely unchanged

Products launched in Goodvalley brand• Sales continue to pick up day-by-day, but branded products still

constitute a small share of segment sales

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018

REVENUE 161 189 733

EBITDA (4) 6 (17)

EBITDA MARGIN (2.3%) 3.3% (2.3%)

SALE OF PORK, THOUSAND TONNES

SALES SPLIT, %

Interim Report Q1 2019

12.9 13.0 13.0 12.013.3

11.5

0

5

10

15

Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q1 2019

Page 7: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Arable and Energy segments

6

Arable• Revenue increased due to higher external sales

Energy delivered a stable production• Revenue was DKK 17 million• EBITDA was lower at 3 million due to lower prices on

certificates in Poland

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018

External revenue 10 - 38

Internal revenue 8 8 140

REVENUE 18 8 178

EBITDA 4 5 7

EBITDA MARGIN 24.2% 56.7% 3.9

PRODUCED ELECTRICITY, GWH

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018

External revenue 10 12 58

Internal revenue 7 7 23

REVENUE 17 19 81

EBITDA 3 6 14

EBITDA MARGIN 15.4% 32.4% 17.3%

Interim Report Q1 2019

16.0 16.5 15.2 15.2 16.5 15.2

0

5

10

15

20

Q4 2017 Q2 2018Q1 2018 Q1 2019Q3 2018 Q4 2018

Page 8: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Group financials

7

Revenue dropped to DKK 322 million• Driven by pig prices and lower volumes• Negative effects were somewhat alleviated by improved efficiency

Earnings impacted by market conditions• Adjusted EBITDA came to DKK 37 million

Cash flow development• Operating cash flows amounted to DKK 26 million

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018

REVENUE 322 351 1,473

EBITDA 42 97 212

Herd price adjustment (5) (24) 10

ADJUSTED EBITDA 37 73 222

ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN 11.5% 20.7% 15.1%

EBITDA margin 13.0% 27.6% 14.4%

REVENUE, DKK MILLION

ADJUSTED EBITDA MARGIN, %

OPERATING CASH FLOW, DKK MILLION

Interim Report Q1 2019

388 351 374 377 371322

0

200

400

600

Q1 2019Q2 2018Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018

25.520.7 22.2

9.2 8.011.5

0

10

20

30

Q1 2019Q4 2018Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018Q2 2018

45 43 44

58 56

26

0

20

40

60

Q1 2019Q4 2018Q2 2018Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q3 2018

Page 9: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Outlook 2019

8

DKK million 2019 outlook

Revenue 1,400-1,550

Adjusted EBITDA 220-280

FINANCIAL OUTLOOK

COMMENTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

The earnings outlook is presented at fixed herd price in terms of Adjusted EBITDA to reduce fluctuations in guidance and provide optimum conditions for assessing Goodvalley’s operational efficiency and performance specifically and in isolation from changes in market prices for live pigs, potentiallyentailing material fair value adjustments of the Group’s biological assets on the balance sheet date.

The outlook for 2019 is based on an average market pig price of DKK 11.2 per kilo and fixed exchange rates as well as the prevailing economic situation in Goodvalley’s markets. The outlook represents our current expectations for the development in the Group’s revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, and Goodvalley’s reported EBITDA may thus deviate significantly from this outlook.

Goodvalley maintains full year guidance for 2019• Revenue of DKK 1,400-1,550 million• Adjusted EBITDA of DKK 220-280 million

Guidance is based on• Increased capacity due to stable upgrades• Strong operational performance• Expectation of an avg. pig price of DKK 11.2

per kilo slaughter pig

Interim Report Q1 2019

Page 10: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

Questions

10Interim Report Q1 2019

Page 11: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Contact information

11

FINANCIAL CALENDAR 2019

TOM AXELGAARD

CEO

HANS HENRIK PEDERSEN

CFO

GOODVALLEY A/SVesterbrogade 4ADK-1620 CopenhagenTel.: +45 76 52 20 01Mail: [email protected]: www.goodvalley.com

Interim Report Q1 2019

27 AUGUST 2019 : INTERIM REPORT Q2 2019

27 NOVEMBER 2019 : INTERIM REPORT Q3 2019

Page 12: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

Appendix

12Interim Report Q1 2019

Page 13: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Key figures and financial ratios

13

Note: Years 2013-2016 have been restated in accordance with new accounting principles

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018Income statementRevenue 322 351 1,473Total income 380 410 1,493Gross profit 66 122 333EBITDA 42 97 212Adjusted EBITDA 37 73 222EBIT 7 68 91

Financial items, net (8) (10) (65)Profit/(loss) for the period (2) 58 18Adjusted profit (16) 30 36

Cash flowOperating activity 26 43 194Investing activity (20) (38) (269)Free cash flow 6 5 75Financing activity (10) (3) (28)

Balance sheetNon current assets 2,016 1,833 1,927Net working capital 494 579 475Invested capital 2,509 2,412 2,402Total assets 2,727 2,793 2,630Equity 1,275 1,310 1,230Net interest-bearing debt 1,232 1,098 1,171

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018Financial ratiosGross margin 20.4 34.8 22.6EBITDA margin 13.0 27.6 14.4Adjusted EBITDA margin 11.5 20.7 15.1EBIT margin 2.0 19.5 6.2Free cash flow / revenue 2.0 1.3 (5.1)Cash conversion 73.0 6.7 87.4

Capex 22 42 257

NIBD/Adjusted EBITDA LTM 6.7 2.7 5.3Equity ratio 46.8 46.2 46.8ROIC 2.1 13.0 3.9FTE 2,222 2,277 2,327

Share ratios

Earnings per share, DKK 0.04 1.08 0.3

Interim Report Q1 2019

Page 14: INTERIM REPORT Q1 2019 - Goodvalley...Interim Report Q1 2019 30.8 32.2 31.4 31.2 31.0 33.0 10 15 20 25 30 35 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Series 29.8 28.0 27.7 27.4

FULL-YEAR 2017 CONFERENCE CALL

Goodvalley Bond Obligor Group1

14

1Bond Obligor Group consists of: Goodvalley A/S, Finansax ApS, Goodvalley Agro SA, Goodvalley Sp. Z o.o. Goodvalley Ukraine LLC

DKK million Q1 2019 Q1 2018 2018Goodvalley Bond Obligor Group

Revenue 288 318 1,305

Total Income 335 370 1,323

EBITDA 30 84 144

Adjusted EBITDA 28 65 153

Net interest-bearing debt 1,184 1,081 1,177

Adjusted EBITDA LTM 121 359 153

NIBD/Adjusted EBITDA LTM 9.5 3.0 7.7

Interim Report Q1 2019