1. Living with climate change: Policy options for ensuring food security in South and Southeast Asia By Claudia Ringler, Nicola Cenacchi, Anthony Cavalieri, Mandy Ewing, Ricky Robertson, Yan Sun, Timothy Thomas, Hua Xie, Tingju Zhu, and David J. Spielman International Food Policy Research Institute

2. Changes in normal annual maximum temperature (C), 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Climate change predictions: Temperature Source: IFPRI 2011 3. Changes in mean annual precipitation in (mm), 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Climate change predictions: Rainfall Source: IFPRI 2011 4. Impact of climate change on irrigated rice yield, 2000 to 2050 Using the A1B scenario Climate change predictions: Yields Source: IFPRI 2011 5. Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, South Asia Source: Wood et al. 2010 Adaptive capacity 6. Source: Wood et al. 2010 Prevalence of individuals earning $1.25 PPP per day, by province, Southeast Asia Adaptive capacity 7. Climate change hotspots Bangladesh: Dhaka and Rajshahi India: Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal Nepal: Western areas Pakistan: Punjab Cambodia: Central region Vietnam: Red River and Mekong Delta Philippines: Luzon 8. Mitigation strategies with potential Mid-season drainage for rice Dryland rice Direct seeded rice Alternative wetting and drying of rice Organic inputs for rice, maize, wheat Zero/minimum tillage of rice, maize, and wheat 9. Source: IFPRI 2011 Mitigation strategies with potential Reductions in CO2 emissions by technology (m tons CO2/year) South Asia Southeast Asia 10. Source: IFPRI 2011 Dryland rice potential Reductions in CH4 and N2 O emissions, dryland rice (% difference from baseline) 11. Source: IFPRI 2011 Reduced emissions, higher yields Yield increases x emission reductions for selected technologies (% difference from baseline) 12. Solutions: How do we get there? Invest in science and technology Invest in development and delivery Improve private incentives Improve market regulation Cooperate, collaborate Plan, time, and sequence strategically Experiment and adapt Involve communities and women Involve vulnerable social groups Marshall good leadership, good governance Source: Adapted from Spielman and Pandya-Lorch 2009 13. 0 7 13 20 26 33 40 0 150 300 450 600 750 900 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Million2005Nepaleserupees NARC Other government (2) NGOs(4) TU (2) Million2005PPPdollars Source: Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI) 2011 Expenditure on agricultural research, Nepal, 1996-2009 Science and technology 14. Procedures and requirements for wheat variety development in Pakistan Development and delivery Source: Arshad et al./BARS, Fatehjang, Punjab, Pakistan 2011 15. 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Estimatedvaluesofyield(metric tons/hectare) Maize Pearl millet Rice Wheat 1992 (Technology shift)1988 (Policy reform) Maize, pearl millet, rice and wheat yields, India (by state), 1965-2008 Private incentives Source: Kolady, Spielman, and Cavalieri 2010 16. Country Regulatory situation India Interim Bangladesh Interim Nepal Interim Thailand Interim Cambodia Fully functional Indonesia Fully functional Philippines Fully functional Sri Lanka Interim The biosafety regulatory situation in South and Southeast Asia Markets and market regulation 17. More technologies with potential Transgenic abiotic stress tolerance Heat, drought tolerance in rice, wheat, maize Transgenic nutrient use efficiency Nitrogen-use efficient rice, wheat, maize Conservation agriculture Direct seeded rice, zero tillage wheat New crop rotations, soil covers, residue management Precision agriculture Real time application of ICT to farm production 18. In conclusion: What will it take? Eliminate regulatory uncertainties Promote public-private partnerships Encourage domestic and foreign investments Provide sufficient protection of intellectual property Encourage commercialization of public research Develop business models that reach smallholders Design sensible, targeted subsidy regimes