Intended Nationally Determined

Contributions (INDCs). Dr Marzena Chodor

Baku, 8 October 2014

Contents: Background - decision 1/CP.19 on INDCs

INDC - a definition

Mitigation in INDCs

What needs to be done globally

Example: EU preparations and EE

INDCs and equity considerations

INDCs and science

other elements of INDCs under consideration

Upfront information on INDCs - why is it required

Options of Upfront Information (UFI) currently on the table

Next steps

Background: decision 1/CP.19 on INDCs • 2013 - COP.19 in Warsaw

• invitation to all Parties to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their

intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to the 2015 Agreement;

• Parties ready to do so are to submit their INDCs by the first quarter of 2015;

• all Parties invited to communicate their INDCs well in advance of COP.21

(likely deadline to be adopted by COP.20 - 31 August 2015);

• INDCs are to be communicated in a manner that facilitates the clarity,

transparency and understanding of the intended contributions;

• ADP to identify by COP.20 (December 2014) the information that Parties will

provide when putting forward their contributions (up-front information or UFI)

• Developed Parties, operating entities of the financial mechanism and other

organisations in a position to do so urged and requested to provide support

for INDCs formulation as early as possible in 2014

for the

INDCs - a definition:

• nationally determined contributions - not necessarily commitments; broad

interpretation left to Parties to decide in accordance with their national

circumstances

• Decision 1/CP.17, para. 5 identifed the following elements to be considered

by ADP in the context of 2015 Agreement: mitigation, adaptation, finance,

technology development and transfer, transparency of action and support,

and capacity building

• The concept of INDCs as formulated in Warsaw (COP.19) includes but is

not limited to mitigation

• Negotiations in the ADP which elements to include, with strong support to

treatequally mitigation and adaptation

• other elements likely to be included to achieve consensus

Mitigation in INDCs

• INDCs are each country contribution to achieving the ultimate goal of the

Convention (limiting dangerous climate change) but the aggregate effort is

what counts

• Long Term Global Goal (LTGG) of preventing dangerous climate change

and limiting warming to below 2 ℃ (or 1.5 ℃) recognised by all Parties

• IPCC AR5 data indicate that to achieve LTGG:

• total GHG emissions have to be zero between 2060 and 2080,

negative thereafter

• total CO2 emissions from combustion have to go to zero by 2045 to

2065, negative thereafter

• both, developed and developing countries must take action now to avoid dangerous climate change

• Need to increase mitigation ambition both pre-2020 and for the post-2020

period

Mitigation needed for all this to work • Developed Countries to cut emissions by 80-95% compared to 1990 by 2050

• global reductions neccesary – 50% by 2050

• global GHG emissions to peak by 2020

7

Efficient pathway: -25% in 2020 -40% in 2030 -60% in 2040

Example: Cost-efficient EU pathway

towards 2050

80% domestic GHG reduction in 2050 is feasible with currently available

technologies,

with behavioural change

only induced through

prices

If all economic sectors

contribute (energy: 85%)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Current policy

Power Sector

Residential & Tertiary

Non CO2 Other Sectors

Industry

Transport

Non CO2 Agriculture

7

8

Energy Efficiency as one of key EU

mitigation measures

• Energy efficiency is the single most important contribution, especially until 2020

– Current policies only result in 10% energy efficiency improvement

– roadmap confirms key role of efficiency up to 2020 and beyond

– efforts towards 20% efficiency target would deliver 25% GHG reduction

– ETS as an instrument to deliver additional efficiency

8

How to make this workable • All countries have to participate. Low level of participation = insufficient

action on a global level

• Low level of participation discourages ambition

• Avoid rigid targets and procedures for increasing commitments as in Kyoto

Protocol first commitment period (2008-2012)

• Need for periodical assessment and review of the INDCs, if not on a path to

limiting dangerous climate change

• Is everyone doing their share, is this sufficient in total? Need for ex ante peer

review based on upfront information (UFI) on the INDCs to be submitted by

Parties

• Cyclical renewal of commitments/contributions. Corrective measures

• Means of implementation (finance, technology, capacity building) provided by

developed countries/countries in a position to do so to developing countries

INDCs and equity considerations:

• what is individual countries’ share in mitigation, given all countries must

participate in global effort to achieve LTGG?

•how to agree on a fair effort and adequate action for each country

•CBDR-RC in the UNFCCC as core principles

•right to sustainable development and adaptation needs as part of consideration

•this will determine what individual countries will be willing to put on the table as

INDCs

•how to match INDCs with the level of collective effort required?

•June 2014 High Level Ministerial Dialogue on ADP:

2015 Agreement should be applicable to all Parties, while respecting equity considerations. It should be based on NDCs and science

Other elements of INDCs under consideration by ADP:

Adaptation contributions Recognised in ADP negotiations as equally important to mitigation

individual action on adaptation vs global/collective adaptation efforts

how to formulate global adaptation goal, its relationship with

contributions/commitments

finance for adaptation and existing framework

Means od Implementation (finance, technology and capacity

building)

Upfront Information on INDCs: • information explaining the INDC, its ambition and how it reflects equity

in a manner enhancing understanding of whether the aggregate effort of all Parties to the 2015 Agreement is adequate (to achieve LTGG)

• To be submitted together with the INDC by first quarter of 2015 (at the latest by 31 August of 2015)

• Contributions are to be communicated in a manner that facilitates clarity, transparency and understanding

• The scope of information required will be determined by Parties in a decision to be adopted in Lima

• draft decision text published by ADP co-chairs after June 2014 negotiations in Bonn (7 July)

• options of UFI currently on the table are presented in an annex to the draft decision, will be discussed further at ADP in October 2014 in Bonn

• may be used as a reference and initial guidance in domestic preparations of INDCs

UFI - options on mitigation (draft decision on UFI 7 July 2014) • Option 1 - applicable to all countries (no firewall)

type of contribution;

time limit/period;

base year;

coverage (geographical boundaries, sectors, GHGs, % of total/national emissions covered);

baseline emissions and related assumptions and methodologies, including methods for the projection of

carbon intensity of GDP;

a quantification of expected emission reducitons, including estimates with and without LULUCF;

annual estimate reduction in emissions intensity of the economy;

methodologies, emission factors and metrics used, including GWPs in line with COP decisions;

peaking year;

expected use of carbon market mechanisms, including how double counting is avoided;

approach to accounting for the land-use sector;

estimated macroeconomic and marginal costs of achieving commitments/targets, methods used to

estimate;

indication of additional mitigation action with the provision of support

UFI - options on mitigation (cont.)

(draft decision on UFI of 7 July 2014)

• Option 2: maintains division Annex I/Non-Annex I

Annex I countries o provide information on enhanced action on their specific

commitments to undertake mitigation in line with the principles and relevant articles

of the Convention and relevant COP decisions

Non-Annex I countries to provide information on enhanced action to implement

the Convention (broader approach) subject to the provision of support

UFI on adaptation - Option 1 • type of adaptation contribution;

• projected climate impacts and related assumptions;

• analysis of vulnerable sectors; technology, investment and capacity building needs;

• nationally determined adaptation options, adaptive capacity enhancement and their

costs;

• quantification of own investments; own adaptation efforts;

• programmes and projects per sector, including those identifed in NAPAs and NAPs;

• definition of adaptation needs;

• international cooperation, including cooperative actions, international and regional

investments to be contributed or required and their time lane;

• support for international and regional initiatives; types of support by Annex II Parties,

eg. grants, bilateral funding; delivery mechanism,

• channel of support by Annex II Parties;

• sectors and geographies covered by the various types of support by Annex II

Parties;

• indicative time line for provision of support

UFI on adaptation - Option 2 • information on the formulation and implementation of national

adaptation plans, building on the initial guidelines contained in the annex to decision 5/CP.17 and including the following: [placeholder]

• Annex to decision 5/CP/17 on national adaptation plans contains initial

(general) guidelines for the formulation of national adaptation plans by

least developed countries

• Parties supporting this option are to propose a list of UFI related to that

contained in the indicated decision of the COP.

UFI on adaptation - Option 3: • Option maintaining division Annex I - Non-Annex I, reference to

decision 5/CP.17 and the Convention (Article 4, para.4)

• Annex II (developed country Parties and other Parties included in Annex

II to the Convention) to provide information on financing related to

adaptation in developing countries

• developing country Parties to provide information on the development and financing needs of national adaptation plans

UFI on means of implementation (finance,technology and capacity building support): option 1

• support contribution for adaptation, including identified adaptation options;

• support for mitigation;

• quantified financial contributions for capacity building;

• scale of support contribution;

• type of support contribution;

• timeframe or time period for support;

• channel and delivery mechanism;

• identification of finance, technology and CB needs, including investment needs related to

INDCs;

• a quantification of national investment made on mitigation and adaptation;

• policies and measures to provide clarity on where countries are on the pathway to

achieving the collective goal defined for the provision of support

UFI on means of implementation (finance,technology and capacity building support): option 2

• maintains Annex I - Non-Annex I (Annex II) division

• information on finance: developing countries (Annex II Parties) on provided

support, using relevant common tabular format, developed countries on

needs;

• information on technology transfer to developing countries by developed

countries, using relevant common tabular format, information by developing

countries on needs;

• information on capacity building, as above.

UFI - other information:

• Indicators relating to equity and ambition and their application

• a description how the contribution relates to the objective of the

Convention, including how it responds to the need for equity and

ambition;

• additional specific information, depending on the type of

contribution

UFI - next steps: • ADP in October 2014 - further discussion on the draft decision

on information that Parties will provide while presenting their

INDCs

• options currently on the table reflect the views presented by the

Parties and are aiming at inclusivity and completeness

• Parties need to agree on INDCs assessment process - this will

influence scope and the level of detail presented in UFI

• COP.20 in Lima - planned adoption of the decision on UFI

• the process is Party-driven but narrowing of options will reflect

political choices made and provide clarity only 3 months before

the first deadline for Parties communication of their INDCs, or 8

months before all Parties will be expected to put forward their

INDCs

Useful links: http://unfccc.int/documentation/documents/items/3595.php

http://unfccc.int/meetings/bonn_oct_2014/session/8417.php

http://unfccc.int/files/parties_and_observers/notifications/application/pdf/message_adp_cochairs_to_observer_organizations.pdf

http://www.mitigationpartnership.net/undpunfccc-regional-technical-dialogues-intended-nationally-determined-contributions

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/finance/index_en.htm

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/index_en.htm

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