Intelligente netten inNederland

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Congres Agentschap NL

Prof. dr. Wim J. de Ridder18 januari 2011

Waar ligt de horizon?

Drie versnellers

• Zesde technologische revolutie

• Dynamica in systemen

• PV-technologie

1. Exponentiële ontwikkeling

De Wet van Moore:singulariteit in 2020

2: PV technologie

booming met dank aan denanotechnologie

Cell efficiencies

Three Hard Truths (Shell)

• Surging energy demand

• Supply will struggle to keep pace

• Environmental stresses are increasing

Scramble Blueprints

Source: Shell International BV and Energy Balances of OECD and Non-OECD Countries©OECD/IEA 2006

0

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

exaj

oule

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400

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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Solar Wind Other Renewables

Different sponsors, different scenarios 2030

• Wind

• Biomass• Solar• Increase in electricity

• CO2 emissions• Dependence on

imported oil

Source: Merrill Lynch, Clean Technology, 2008

EIA Google40 GW 380 GW

10 GW 23 GW4 GW 250 GW

25% 0%+ 16% -/- 40%+ 11% -/- 33%

3. Dynamica in systemen

• Computer 1.0: main frame• Computer 2.0: Personal computing• Computer 3.0: Pervasive computing/embedded

systems

Emerging markets: mobility• Mobility 1.0: public transport• Mobility 2.0: private transport (cars)• Mobility 3.0: autonomous vehicles,

integrated transportsystems

Emerging markets: water

• Water 1.0: utilities• Water 2.0: welness, health• Water 3.0: decentralized purification

Decentrale zuivering

Reinier de Graaf Ziekenhuis Delft

Terugverdientijd 3 jaar

Emerging markets: energy

• Energy 1.0: utilities• Energy 2.0: personal energy: solar, wkk• Energy 3.0: smart grids

4. De wereld breekt open

• Rol van de overheid• HighTech valleys• Chinese dominantie

Chinese cleantech producten

• Zonnecellen• Batterijen• Electrische auto’s

Austria Eco World Styria: Worldbest cleantech cluster organization

Andere CleanTech clusters

Smart Cities: Governments will increasingly invest in embeddingintelligence into the infrastructure of new and existing urban cities

The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secureenvironmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water,transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced,integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced withcomputerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms.- U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000

Examples of New Smart Cities:• Masdar, Abu Dhabi,• New Songho City, South Korea,• Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India• King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia

•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia

Focusgebieden Energie &Power

Technologische uitdagingen:

•Smart (power) grids;netwerkstabiliteit ((nano-)sensoren en embedded systemen)

•Foto Voltaïsche zonnecellen;kostprijs/kWh, efficiency, conversie, opslag

•Energie neutraal wonen;lokaal winnen, opslaan, converteren, distribueren & verbruik

•Elektrisch vervoer; b.v. snelladen, verlichting & veiligheid

Innovative solutions toclimate and energy challenges

Clean

Tech

Delta

De New Green Dealvoor innovatie en schone technologie

in de regio Rotterdam-Delft

The race to reinvent the world starts andends in China

The size of China's green stimulus programis historically unprecedented at about 38%of the over $200 billion announced, andunderpinning the country's rise as thelargest emerging cleantech market.

5. Conclusie: afkijken mag

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