intellidrive ℠ deployment scenarios workshop pinyon labs/noblis, inc. i ntelli d rive ℠ d...
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IntelliDrive℠ Deployment Scenarios WorkshopPinyon Labs/Noblis, Inc.
INTELLIDRIVE℠ DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS WORKSHOP
Dulles, VirginiaJune 22-23, 2010
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WELCOME
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INTRODUCTIONS
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A BEGINNING
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AN ENDING?
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Let’s baseline: Definitions of IntelliDrive
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BENEFITS?In your opinion, please rank the following potential benefits of IntelliDrive in order of importance:
First: Reduce Accidents
Second: Reduce Congestion
Third: Provide Better/More Comprehensive Advisory Services
Fourth: Reduce Environmental Impact
Group consensus:
# Re
spon
dent
s
Rank
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AGENDA
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TODAY’S AGENDA
• Expected outcomes• Overview of the deployment scenarios• Identification of major issues and parameters
for tomorrow• Q&A and instructions for the deep-dives
tomorrow.…
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TOMORROW’S AGENDA
• Breakout sessions (aka the deep-dives)• Breakout session reporting• Outcomes, key take-aways, and summary
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THE WHATS
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WHAT ARE WE DOING HERE?
• We’re mid-way through the development of a set of alternatives for deploying IntelliDrive, and need to share what we’ve done to date.
• We’re following-on to interviews we conducted last year in an effort to expand the range and nuance of the analysis
• We’re seeking additional insight from the communities interested in IntelliDrive deployment.
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WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE?
VII was over ambitious and over spec’d including DSRC I hope to
see some practicality but still full government commitment...and
private sector opportunities
To ensure that local agency concerns and the practicality of deployment are dealt with
in a responsible manner
Learn about the deployment scenarios that have been developed
from system integrator and technology developer perspective
To gauge progress being made by USDOT and its
partners on this initiative
To determine if there is a workable framework in development by Federal Agencies that is a practical
way forward in deploying the technology already being demonstrated by a number of different
companies both in-vehicle and fixed installations.
I want to see IntelliDrive roll out now and start saving lives, reducing congestion
and reducing emissions - in some fashion and on some apps without waiting for
perfection in privacy and security
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WHAT ARE YOU DOING HERE?
• You’re interested in what’s going on with IntelliDrive, and may have a strong opinion about how it ought to be deployed.
• You’re hoping to contribute to the thinking on deployment alternatives
• You’re making an effort to ensure appropriate levels of attention are being paid to the appropriate areas
• You’re also here to help
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WHAT ARE WE DOING TOGETHER?
• Together, we’re going to explore the results of the work to-date.
• Together, we’re going to evaluate, critique, and improve the existing deployment scenarios.
• Together, we’re going to broaden perspectives, reveal new possibilities, engage our imagination.
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WHAT’S THE POINT?
• USDOT is exploring V2V, but that can’t be the only option
• There are other ways, and they – like the current path – offers benefits as well as detours
• We need you to supplement our thinking on alternatives
• You can help craft a broader – more useful – perspective on deployment options
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What do you – or your organization – hope to get out
of the next day or so?
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SCENARIOS
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A SCENARIO IS…
a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world, sufficiently vivid that a stakeholder can clearly see and comprehend the problems, challenges, and opportunities that such a world would present.
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EXPLORING ALTERNATIVES AND PERSPECTIVES
• What’s desired? Why?• What’s appropriate?• What’s possible?• What are the pieces, and how do they fit
together?• What are the implications? Short-term? Long-
term?
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KEY IDEA 1:
Meaningful solutions arise only from a common understanding of the problem.
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KEY IDEA 2:
The problem is not technological.
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ROLE OF THE DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS
There are lots of ways for US DOT to be involved – what makes sense and what is appropriate?
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CONSTRUCTING THE SCENARIOS
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RESEARCH
• Environmental scan – looked at two components:– Broad scan indentified global and domestic trends in science
and technology, society and culture, economics, environment, and politics and policy
– Close scan identified specifically IntelliDriveSM-relevant trends
• Stakeholder interviews– Auto OEMs, tier 1 suppliers, state and local agencies, VCs
and fund managers, software developers, hardware developers, mobility service providers, academics, legislators, business groups
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ANALYTICS
• Trend frequency, probability, impact, and implications
• Key considerations in combining significant elements– What has proven able to, or can, work together?– What must also be included? Excluded?– What are second-order elements and implications
for certain combinations?
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CHALLENGES?If money were not an issue, how would you rank the difficulty of solving the following challenges to the successful deployment of IntelliDrive?
First: Legal Framework (including liability)
Second: Security
Third: Ongoing Roles and Responsibilities
Fourth: Privacy
Fifth: User Adoption
Sixth: Data Standards
Group consensus:
# Re
spon
dent
s
Rank
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RELATIVE CERTAINTIES
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RELATIVE UNCERTAINTIES
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WHAT’S MOST IMPORTANT?If money were not an issue, which of the following would be the most important in ensuring IntelliDrive’s success?
Maturity of the technology
Driver willingness
International standards harmonization
State/local political buy-in
Federal guidance and coordination
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
# Respondents
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SCENARIO OVERVIEW
Full Throttle Safety Net Facilitator
Proving Ground
2010-2020
2020 +
V2I + V2V V2V
DSRC No DSRC
Dep
loym
ent C
omm
itmen
t
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DEPLOYMENT SCENARIOS
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FULL THROTTLE
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FULL THROTTLEScenario synopsis
• As the baseline scenario, this represents the view that had been the dominant expectation for IntelliDriveSM (or, more precisely, that which was VII) pre-2009/2008, but updated to reflect current potential timetables.• This scenario assumes an aggressive DSRC-focused implementation timetable
with an application focus on active safety. As such, this scenario would require a near-term government mandate and significant associated funding.
Technology assumptions
• Platform: Integrated communications platform (including both V2V and V2I)• Applications: Targeted at safety, but open to private sector applications
Market role • Limited in areas where government involved; fulfilling unmet needs in areas outside of active safety
USDOT role • Define standards and requirements• Develop rules for implementation of DSRC devices in new vehicles• Establish implementation priorities and timetable• Allocate funding among state agencies for implementation
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SAFETY NET
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SAFETY NETScenario synopsis
• USDOT continues in its current direction with a focus on DSRC-orientated safety.• This scenario assumes that the funding required for V2V and V2I deployment as
imagined in Full Throttle is not available, and so deployment is focused on V2V applications.
Technology assumptions
• Platform: Integrated (or aftermarket) communications platform supporting V2V• Applications: Targeted at safety, but open to private sector applications
Market role • Likely resistance to V2V active-safety until proven (and then probably mandated); well developed efforts to develop and market mobility and passive safety applications.
USDOT role • Push forward with research on V2V safety options• Build stakeholder support• Define standards and requirements• Develop rules for implementation of DSRC devices in new vehicles
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PROVING GROUND
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PROVING GROUNDScenario synopsis
• This scenario assumes an ongoing focus on IntelliDriveSM as, from the federal government’s perspective, primarily an active safety capability. But economic trends and intense competition for limited funds delays implementation for 10+ years
Technology assumptions
• Platform: Integrated communications platform (including both V2V and V2I)• Applications: Targeted at safety, but open to private sector applications
Market role •Will find solutions in mobility and passive safety; probability of near active safety applications and services; possibility of embracing government-developed active safety networks and opportunities once deployed
USDOT role • Define active safety standards and requirements for devices that connect to DSRC• Establish research and testing priorities and timetable• Allocate funding among state agencies for testing and limited local
implementations
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FACILITATOR
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FACILITATORScenario synopsis
• This scenario is focused on realizing the long-term goal of creating “connected” vehicles through appropriately encouraging and supporting the private sector. In this scenario, USDOT is technology agnostic
Technology assumptions
• Platform: Whichever network is most appropriate for a given task• Applications: Both active-safety as well as advisory services and system
monitoring capabilities – innovative automakers and independent applications providers will likely develop a large range of mobility apps that use existing networks
Market role • Focus on delivering those services and tools that drivers want to, and will, buy
USDOT role • Define standards and requirements for for data collection and reporting that support public safety, mobility, and environmental priorities• Provide research and innovation funding and support to the private sector as
well as state agencies for testing and implementation connectivity based services
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THE PROCESS
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OUR TASK IS TO EXPLORE
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IMMERSION
• Inhabit the world articulated and evoked by the scenario– What is the world like?– What are some assumptions about technology, or
policies, or end-users, or transportation more generally?– Who are the players? What are their motivations?– What has to be true for the deployment to look the way
it does?– What stands between now and the future suggested by
the scenario?
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FACILITATED SESSIONS
• 4 scenarios; 4 rooms; 1 scenario per room• Each room will dive deeply into its assigned
scenario• At the end of the morning, we’ll come
together and present the results of our exploration, and discuss broader implications.
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NEXT STEPS FOR TODAY
• Pick-up your scenario and supporting material packet
• Read all the scenarios this evening, and prepare to discuss tomorrow