Integration and Synthesis

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Preface

Component-level data and understanding

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Component / sub-system

Sea-ice extent summer minimum

Sea-ice export and melt

Sea ice preconditioning (low

concentration, less MY vs. FY, ice thickness)

Lower troposphere – temp. and precip.

Atmospheric circulation

Clouds and aerosols (radiation)

Arctic Ocean – SST and heat content

Marine ecosystem (lower and higher-level)

Terrestrial ecosystem / vegetation / land-coverTerrestrial hydrology (rivers and lakes)

Greenland ice-sheet

Other terrestrial

Human response and other HD

Spatial

Temporal

Quant.

Steele, M., W. Ermold, and J. Zhang (2008), Arctic Ocean surface warming trends over the past 100 years, Geophys. Res. Lett.

Schweiger, A., J. Zhang, R. Lindsay, and M. Steele (2008), Did unusually sunny skies help drive the record sea ice minimum of 2007?, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.

Lindsay, R., J. Zhang, A. Schweiger, M. Steele, and H. Stern (2008), Arctic ice retreat in 2007 follows thinning trend, submitted to J. Climate.

Ogi, M., I. Rigor, M. McPhee, and J.M. Wallace (2008), Record low Arctic sea ice extent in September 2007: Role of summer winds, in revision.

Zhang, J., R. Lindsay, M. Steele, and A. Schweiger (2008), What drove the dramatic retreat of Arctic sea ice during summer 2007?, submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Summer 2007 analyses published or submittedUniversity of Washington

Integration and Synthesis

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Goal 2. Improve integration: cross-disciplinary and

national / international

Goal 3. Produce an integrated overview of the summer

2007 sea-ice minimum

Integration and Synthesis

1. Integration

2. Synthesis and outcomes

3. Synthesis approach

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Integration of expertise and efforts – develop

“collaboration” and “synergy”

across disciplinary, institutional and national boundaries

1. Integration

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Integration of data and understanding at the

component-level to improve understanding of linkages

and system behavior – “synthesis”

1. Integration

across disciplinary boundaries

Observing and understanding change

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Integration of data and understanding at the

component-level to improve understanding of linkages

and system behavior

2. Synthesis

Synthesis does NOT involve new collection of data

Synthesis better exploits existing data, knowledge and

methods through a focused (and consistent and

quantitative) integrative framework.

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Integration of data and understanding at the

component-level to improve understanding of linkages

and system behavior

Synthesis involves putting together disparate data and

strands of knowledge

Synthesis papers are NOT (necessarily) reviews or

overviews. There is however a 'gray zone' between data

synthesis and review papers

2. Synthesis

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

   EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers

   Dickson et al. (2000): "synthesize“

   Dickson et al. (2002): "analysis of long records“

   Mann et al. (1998 and others): "calibration of widely distributed multi-proxy data“

   Polyakov et al. (2004): "investigate using a wide range of datasets". 

2. Synthesis

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

   EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers

   Nordic Seas AGU monograph: several papers

Drange et al. (2005):an "overview“ to

  provide a "synthesis”of "review papers"!

 

2. Synthesis

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

2. Synthesis

   EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers

  

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

   EXAMPLES of data synthesis papers

  

2. Synthesis

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

   Specific OUTCOMES of synthesis, beyond 'improved knowledge and understanding'?

  

2. Synthesis

New compilation and consistent comparison, plot and/or map of diverse records

Fig. 2. Dickson et al. (2002)

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

   Specific OUTCOMES of synthesis, beyond 'improved knowledge and understanding'?

  

2. Synthesis

New conceptual models, feedback loop or schematic diagram, ideally with numbers

Chapin et al. (2005)

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

   Specific OUTCOMES of synthesis, beyond 'improved knowledge and understanding'?

  

2. Synthesis

New up-to-date estimates, evaluations of budgets, parameterizations, etc.

Chapin et al. (2005)

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Approach

Synthesis can be observational data analysis

Synthesis can be based on modelling analysis

Combination of observational and modelling

2. Synthesis process:

Understanding: Faster-than-forecast recentsummer sea-ice decline

Anthropogenic: Models under-represent sea-ice sensitivity to GHGs

[Stroeve et al., 2007]

Natural variability: Increases in lower troposphere temperature due to atmos. circulation Changes in spring cloud cover [Francis and Hunter, 2006]

Changes in sea-ice circulation and ice age associated with atmos.-circulation variability [Rigor et al., 2002;

Rigor and Wallace, 2004; Maslanik et al., 2007a]

Increases in ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean[Polyakov et al., 2005; Shimada et al., 2006]

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Understanding: Drastic summer 2007 sea-ice decline

Preconditioning Sea-ice circulation and ice age Increases in ocean heat transport to the Arctic Ocean Increases in lower troposphere temperature

Conditioning – anomalous summer 2007 Atmospheric pressure (wind and cloud-cover) Sea-ice circulation

Feedbacks – positive, enhancement

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Understanding: Drastic summer 2007 sea-ice decline

2007: “A Perfect Storm” conjunction of factors, an anomalous one-off weather event or a foreshadow of rapid near-term transformation of the arctic system?

Synthesis, integrated analysis for system-level understanding, including impacts and predictability

Prediction for 2008 and beyond:

Accelerating mechanisms?

Decelerating mechanisms?

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM

Understanding: Recent, summer 2007 and future sea-ice

System behavior:Drivers, linkages and feedbacks

Synthesis, integrated analysis for system-level understanding

predictabilityimpacts

Can we learn from similar anomalies in sea ice and/or related components in the long instrumental and historical record? Paleo record?

WORKSHOP: LESSONS FROM THE 2007 ICE MINIMUM