integrated schedule risk analysis using jacs · integrated schedule risk analysis using jacs...
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Integrated Schedule Risk Analysis using JACS
Antonio Rippe
2017 NASA Cost and Schedule Symposium
August 29 – 31
Washington, D.C.
Addressing the Paradoxical Elephant in the Room…
1) Integrating multiple programs that are simultaneously independent and highly dependent
2) Run a Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) on the integrated product
3) Generate meaningful results and insights in timely manner
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Problem
2
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Setting the Stage – Three Programs
Crew Vehicle: Pegasus
Rocket: Launch System for Space (LSS)
Launch Center: Development & Operations of Ground Systems (DOGS)
Izzy
All names, characters, and incidents portrayed in this production are fictitious.
No identification with actual persons, places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred.
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So, Why is This so Difficult?
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The question remains . . .
How do we integrate these programs and run an SRA on the integrated schedule?
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Several Methods to Integrate Schedules
1. Integrate the IMS
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Integrating the IMS
Pros: Holistic representation of the three programs
Cons: Data Collection
Time & Effort
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Usually leads to…
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Several Methods to Integrate Schedules
1. Integrate the IMS
2. Integrating Summary Schedules
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Integrating Summary Schedules
Pros: Timely
Summary Schedule size < IMS size
Cons: Summary Schedules hide effort required to accomplish program goals
Loss of ability to link activities between summary tasks
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Summary 1
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Summary 2
Still dealing with multiple schedule platforms, which can lead to added effort and…
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Several Methods to Integrate Schedules
1. Integrate the IMS
2. Integrating Summary Schedules
3. Milestone Schedule with Effort Filled In
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Milestone Schedule with Effort Filled In
Pros: Timely
Higher detail than Summary Schedule while maintaining manageable schedule size
Cons: New schedule that requires consistent inputs from three independent
programs
Resulting activity may not represent the entirety of effort required
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Effort Task
A
B
C
D
E
F
G H
I
J
K
LMNOP
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Several Methods to Integrate Schedules
1. Integrate the IMS
2. Integrating Summary Schedules
3. Milestone Schedule with Effort Filled In
Of the above, #3 is the most efficient approach
However, I believe we can do better…
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The Secret Sauce – Analysis Schedules!
Displays major work-flows of a project
Provides insight into major cross-dependencies within or across management responsibility boundaries
Creates a solid framework for incorporating uncertainties and discrete risk events
Has traceability and transparency to detailed IMS
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How Does an Analysis Schedule Help?
Creating and integrating three analysis schedules may be best approach, however time constraints prevent this approach
Instead, create one analysis schedule for integrator schedule
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DOGS Analysis Schedule
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Process Overview
Analysis Schedule created of integrator schedule Uncertainty distributions and Discrete Risks modeled for integrator
schedule
Placeholders created in analysis schedule for deliveries from other programs
Advantages
Allows programs to use schedule platform of their choice
Allows programs to use SRA tool of their choice
Outputs needed as inputs into the model are universally provided by all SRA tools
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Insights and Results
Integrated distribution of completion date With all programs contributing to risk-informed result
Risk ranking across the programs Drivers to integration points can be assessed by responsible program
assessing their result drivers
Additional insights can be obtained using JACS…
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Joint Analysis of Cost and Schedule (JACS)
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Microsoft Project add-in to facilitate SRA/JCLs
Define uncertainty distributions, correlations, and discrete risk events within the schedule environment
Why I chose JACS - Cache file is a treasure trove of dataBuilt in analysis and charts providing unique insights
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Results on One Condition…
Results Conditioned on Criticality Allows for driver analysis based on the subset of simulation results in
which the task/risk lands on the critical path
Allows for focused analysis by concentrating on those tasks/risks that are driving the finish date
Risk Drivers Conditioned on Criticality
Probability of risk being on critical path
Average duration impact of risk when on critical path
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Watch out for that RIFT!
Risk Informed Finish Threshold Provides a threshold for an individual task at which the probabilistic
project finish date will be maintained
“Allocation of probabilistic contingency” to predecessor tasks
RIFT dates provide objective metrics to manage the project on task-by-task basis in a way that ensures this probabilistic finish is on track or in danger of falling behind Assessment can be applied at integration points to evaluate threshold
of late delivery
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http://www.iceaaonline.com/atl16papers/#RU-03
http://www.iceaaonline.com/pdx17papers/#EV05
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Conclusion
Analysis schedule with integration touch-points is most efficient manner (in analyst’s opinion) to obtain integrated, risk-informed results
Timely, but is not instantaneous
Need IMS and risk data to be set before proceeding
Analysis schedule update/creation could be time-consuming… but worth it!
Comprehensive analysis of integrated impacts
Preserves logical linkages between tasks
Analysis Schedule highly suitable for Risk Analysis
No additional work needed for inputs to model
RIFT provides insights unique to JACS
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QUESTIONS?
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