integrated modeling of srm
TRANSCRIPT
IntegratedmodelingofSRM
Massimo Tavoni
What are IAMs?
Source:http://www.iamconsortium.org/
Classification(Weyant,2017):• Benefit-cost
IAMs
• DetailedprocessIAMs
Literature overview
• Benefit-costIAMs:• MostlyDICE-like(Goeset.al,GramstadandTjotta,Moreno
CruzandKeith,Belaiaet.al,Helwegenet.al)• Highlysensitivetoparametrizationofcostsandbenefits• DegenerateapplicationofCBA
• DetailedprocessIAMs• Veryfewcontributions(Arinoet.alPNAS2016,Emmerlingand
Tavoni,GEC&ERE)• Oftenaccompaniedbyanalytical/theoreticalmodeling• OftenhybridwithCBA
Uncertainty
Governance
Beyond single objective optimization
Beyond single objective optimization
Beyond single objective optimization
Beyond single objective optimization
Open issues which need to be resolved (and won’t be easy)Data:• Climatechangeeconomicimpacts
• Recentempiricalliterature(Burke,Hsianget.al):higheconomicimpactsandinequality->largescopeforSRM(Hardenal2019)
• Butalsohighuncertainty,especiallyatthecountrylevel(Ricke,Caldeira,DrouetandTavoni)
• BasedonTemp:precipitation,CO2• SRMeconomicimpacts
• Empiricalliterature(Proctorforvolcanoes,fires?)• Airquality• Governance(includinglabexperiments,forthcoming)
Frameworks:• Exploratoryanalysiswillgrow,morecomplexmethods(multi-objective,deep
uncertainty,etc.),couplingwithreducedcomplexityGCM• HardtoseeitsooninamajordetailedprocessIAMensamble
References
Emmerling,Johannes,andMassimoTavoni.“ExplorationoftheInteractionsbetweenMitigationandSolarRadiationManagementinCooperativeandNon-CooperativeInternationalGovernanceSettings.”GlobalEnvironmentalChange53(November1,2018):244–51.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.10.006.
Emmerling,Johannes,andMassimoTavoni.“ClimateEngineeringandAbatement:A‘Flat’RelationshipUnderUncertainty.”EnvironmentalandResourceEconomics,January11,2017,1–21.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-016-0104-5.
Goes,Marlos,NancyTuana,andKlausKeller.“TheEconomics(orLackThereof)ofAerosolGeoengineering.”ClimaticChange109,no.3–4(April2011):719–744.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9961-z.
Moreno-Cruz,JuanB.,andDavidW.Keith.“ClimatePolicyunderUncertainty:ACaseforSolarGeoengineering.”ClimaticChange,Maggio2012.https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0487-4.
Gramstad,Kjetil,andSigveTjøtta.“ClimateEngineering:CostBenefitandBeyond.”WorkingPapersinEconomics.UniversityofBergen,DepartmentofEconomics,2010.https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/bergec/2010_005.html.
Belaia,Mariia.“OptimalClimateStrategywithMitigation,CarbonRemoval,andSolarGeoengineering,”n.d.,34.
Arino,Yosuke,KeigoAkimoto,FuminoriSano,TakashiHomma,JunichiroOda,andToshimasaTomoda.“EstimatingOptionValuesofSolarRadiationManagementAssumingThatClimateSensitivityIsUncertain.”ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,May5,2016.https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1520795113.