integrated modeling at epa: vision and planned activities ecoinformatics meeting rtp, nc april 11,...
TRANSCRIPT
Integrated Modeling at EPA: Integrated Modeling at EPA: Vision and Planned ActivitiesVision and Planned Activities
EcoInformatics Meeting
RTP, NC
April 11, 2008
Gary Foley, Office of the Science AdvisorJohn M Johnston, Ecological Research Program
Presentation Outline
Council for Regulatory Environmental Modeling Workshop, White Paper and Action Plan
Ecological Research Program Modeling science
Modeling = Data + Model + Application Modeling technology
Modern Integrated Modeling and Technology Next steps and direction
A path forward
Identifying opportunities for EPA-EU collaboration in integrated modeling
Council for Regulatory Council for Regulatory Environmental ModelingEnvironmental Modeling
Environment is complex and its components are not separable
Courtesy: NASA
The Need and The Challenge
Integrated Modeling for Integrated Environmental Decision Making Workshop
Why: An opportunity for EPA modelers and policy-makers to discuss a long-term vision for integrated models and strengthening intra- and inter-Agency modeling collaboration
Who: 150 participants Staff from across EPA involved in
the development and application of models and interpretation of model outcomes in EPA’s Core, Program and Regional Offices.
Key international and US experts Representatives from Environment
Canada, EU
Expanding Accountability
Using models that integrate multiple data sources to better assess effectiveness of past policies John Bachmann
Chesapeake Bay Decision Support System
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent of Space
Per
cent
of
Tim
e
CFD Curve
Area of Criteria Exceedence
Area of AllowableCriteria
Exceedence
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Percent of Space
Per
cent
of
Tim
e
CFD Curve
Area of Criteria Exceedence
Area of AllowableCriteria
Exceedence
Airshed Model,Land Change Model,Data
Watershed Model
Bay Model
CriteriaAssessmentProcedures
Effects
Allocations
Gary Shenk
A mechanistically consistent infrastructurefor both exposure assessment and health impact analysis:
CERM/MENTOR and ebCTC/DORIAN address the source-to-outcome continuum
This schematic has evolved from various graphical representations of the source-to-outcome sequence, that were developed in recent years by USEPA.
CERM: Center for Exposure and Risk Modeling MENTOR: Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies ebCTC: environmental bioinformatics and Computational Toxicology Center DORIAN: DOse-Response Information Analysis system Satsry Isakupalli
Integrated Modeling for Integrated Environmental Decision Making
Need for Integrated Modeling/ Analysis: Integrating models and scientific components across media,
disciplines and scales offers valuable insights Need for Integrated Modeling to Inform Decision Making:
Enhancing stakeholder collaboration and decision making transparency.
Need for Organization-Level Solution/ Enabling Environment: Promoting consistency and repeatability of analyses Establish and maintain a connected stakeholder community
Promote better understanding of integrated modeling Understanding new needs Sharing experience, knowledge, technologies
Develop standards to facilitate reuse and interoperability of existing and new integrated modeling technologies
EPA Coordinating Workgroup
Integrated ModelingScience
Integrated Modeling
Technology
IntegratedModelingProjects
Community Of Practice
MYPs
Legacy Science &
Technology
Experience/Guidance
INT
EG
RA
TE
D M
OD
EL
ING
ST
AK
EH
OL
DE
R C
OM
MU
NIT
Y
Air
Water
Waste
Pesticides
Regions
...
OEI
AgencyStrategicPlans
. . .
Ecological Research ProgramEcological Research Program
Research Direction
ERP Vision A comprehensive theory and practice for
characterizing, quantifying, and valuing ecosystem services, and their relationship to human well-being is consistently incorporated into environmental decision making.
ERP Mission: Provide the information and methods needed by
decision makers to assess the benefits of ecosystem goods and services to human well-being for inclusion in management alternatives.
LTG 1: Decision Support Platform
By 2013 ORD will provide an innovative online decision support platform that offers EPA, Regions, States, local communities and resource managers the ability to integrate, visualize, and maximize use of diverse data, models and tools at multiple scales to generate alternative decision options and understand the consequences of management decisions on the sustainability of ecosystem services, their value and human well-being.
Monitoring, Modeling and Mapping Relationships (LTG2 )
Monitoring Modeling MappingInput Output
Information FlowEcosystem Services
Indicators Indicators
Landscape characterization
Monitoring Frame for national and place-based model
applications Frame for mapping
Modeling Source for non-monitored data (atm. dep. via CMAQ) Source for time varying data
Mapping Methods for spatial aggregation, disaggregation of
data Summary of modeled and monitored output for
decisionmaking
What can each provide the other?
Modeling Infrastructures (Frameworks)
Purpose and Benefits Facilitate the development and application of integrated systems Standards based Facilitates collaboration and additional levels of research Minimizes production of non-science software (more resources
focused on science components) Elements and Functionality
Execution management Data flow management User interfaces (hierarchical – system levels down to components) Modeling support software (data access/retrieval/processing,
visualization, quality assurance) Limitations and Issues
Standards (like opinions, everyone framework has one -- need community wide standards)
Ongoing maintenance of large software systems is challenging Misperception that infrastructures solve science integration
problems
Principles of the ERP
• The treatment of uncertainty in the scientific methodology and our appreciation of uncertainty in decisionmaking must evolve
• Our success depends on an emergent property, a community understanding, appreciation and expertise for ecosystem services science and valuation
Requirements of Modeling
Coherence Transparency Reproducibility Characterization of uncertainty Quality assured
EPA-EU Collaboration in Integrated Modeling
Identify some scenarios that would benefit from interoperability
Gain better understanding of interoperability challenges and needs
Identify lessons learned from the Open MI project and EPA projects (e.g. FRAMES)?
Develop projects to facilitate reuse and interoperability of integrated modeling frameworks
Develop and share methods for uncertainty analysis and characterization