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Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke

Integrated health impact assessment of

transport policies

Presentation on the Air Quality Conference in Athens

21. March 2012

J. Theloke, U. Kugler, C. Schieberle, T. Kampffmeyer, J. Roos, A. Kuhn,

S. Torras Ortiz, R. Friedrich


Introduction

The most important environmental health risks in Europe are caused by

exposure to fine particles (PM10, PM2.5, EC, OC, PNC)

Current PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations result in an average reduction of

life expectation of the European population of a few (ca. 3 to 5) months.

The PM10 thresholds are frequently exceeded.

Thus a further reduction of the fine particle concentration is necessary.

This should be done with efficient measures, i.e. measures with the lowest

costs per unit of health risk reduced (e.g. expressed in DALYs – disability

adjusted life years).

The aim of TRANSPHORM is to identify and assess European transport

policies to reduce health risks on different scales.


Approach

Development of mitigation and policy options for reducing transport

related particle emissions

Distinction between urban and European scale related measures

Developing and applying methodologies for assess these options

Compile a reference scenario for future years

Apply the full chain approach

Ranking the options for identifying the most cost efficient options

(Health Impacts avoidance costs) [Euro2010])

-

((Measure costs +Utility Losses) [Euro2010])


Reference Scenario (2005, 2020, 2030)

For non transport related sectors we apply the MEGAPOLI scenario

(based on TIMES Modelling)

For the transport sector (road transport, aviation, navigation and

railways) has been generated activity data sets from TREMOVE

(based on PRIMES Energy modelling) (TML, Griet de Ceuster)

The Emission factors have been generated in the TRANSPHORM

project by LAT (Zissis Samaras), DLR (Andreas Petzold) and IVL

(Jana Moldonova)

The emissions have been calculated by IER (incl. Spatial resolution

for EU27)

The spatially resolved data set for EU27 has been integrated in the

TNO grid by TNO

Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke 5

Elementar Carbon (EC)Emissions in EU27+NO+CH


PM2.5-Emissions in Europe (EU27 + NO + CH)


Total Particle Number (PN) Emissions in Europe (EU27+NO+CH)


Urban related measures

Enhanced use of bicycles in cities

Traffic management (Green Wave, improved operation of signalized intersections)

Low emissions zones

Ban of through-traffic of heavy trucks

Increase in the cost of motoring (City toll)

Increase in the cost of motoring (Parking management)

Freight Consolidation Centre

Bus fleet with alternative engines (fuel cells, electric engines)

Freight transport in pipelines (CargoCap)

E-Logistics for commercial vehicles in cities

E and I city transport concept


Measures with impact to the whole EU

Enhanced use of public traffic

Speed limit (motorways)

Speed limit (rural)

Car pooling (Promotion of low emission vehicles (E-cars))

Enhanced use of biofuels

Increase in the cost of motoring (Road pricing)

Increase in the cost of motoring (Fuel taxes)

Further emission limits (EURO 7/8)

Abrasion and noise optimised road surfaces and vehicle parts

Teleconferencing (ICT); Teleworking; Teleshopping

Enhanced use of public traffic


Measures related to other traffic modes

Differentiation of track access charges for rail transport

Further development of emission limits in inland waterway transport

Kerosene Tax for aviation

Low emission zones for construction equipment

Shift from aviation to railway

Electric operations in harbours

DPF for navigation

Low NOx-zones for shipping

Differentiation of track access charges for rail transport

Further development of emission limits in inland waterway transport

Kerosene tax for aviation


No Measure Rel.

for

city

t/n

Spatial

scale

Time

scale

Vehicle

category

EF

aff.

Stock

aff.

Traffic

volume

Modal

shift

Pollutants

1 Enhanced use of

bicycles in cities x n urban 2020 PC/MC x x x AP GHG

noise

2 Enhanced use of

public traffic x n urban 2020 PC/MC x x x AP GHG

3 Speed limit

(motorways) n motor-way 2020 All x GHG (AP)

4 Speed limit (rural) n motorway 2020 All x GHG (AP)

5 Car pooling (E-

cars, hybrid

vehicles)) x t

urban

rural 2030 PC x x x AP GHG

6 Traffic

management x t urban 2030 All x AP GHG

8 Low emission

zones x n urban 2020 All x x x AP GHG

Matrix for categorizing road transport measures


Measure based scenario for road transport


Analysis of policies and measures

Traffic management RT 4

Description

The aim of this measure is to smooth the traffic flow by avoiding multiple braking and acceleration. This can be

done by e.g. optimising and coordinating the traffic light control in an urban area.

Abatement potential

In a research project in the German city of Ingolstadt, the control of traffic lights was optimised so that a smoother

traffic flow was reached. From data on reduced waiting times and reduced number of stops necessary, GEVAS

(2008) assumed a 19% reduction in fuel consumption. It is assumed that the degree of implementation will be

relatively low (20%) as this measure involves high costs. Implementation Possible to implement: 2030 Costs

Costs involve the installation of a traffic management system and personnel costs. The city of Ingolstadt estimates

costs of 350,000 € for the installation of a traffic management system (Ingolstadt 2008). Further costs for operation,

maintenance and human resources are not stated. It is assumed that at minimum one extra personnel of 50,000 €

per year is needed. On the other hand, there are fuel cost savings due to the improved traffic flow.

Synergies/interactions with other environmental objectives (eg climate change) + Reduction of fuel consumption + Reduction of waiting times


Methodology and tool for

impact assessment

15

The Full Chain Approach


Ecosense Approach

Estimate the damages to human health caused by the emissions of

the city by using the results of the atmospheric modelling and

exposure modelling and applying concentration- response as well as

exposure-response relationships;

Aggregate the different health endpoints into DALY (disability

adjusted life years) or QUALY (quality adjusted life years);

Convert the aggregated endpoints and the impacts on climate change

into a common monetary unit to allow comparisons and cost-benefit

analyses.

Result: Ranking of single measures based on specific cost

efficiency


Emission

Delta

Concentrations

Case-

Scenario

Base-

Scenario

SR-Matrices

Ecosense Approach


Pollutant

Concentration in

µg/m3

The typically higher pollutant levels in urban areas for

most pollutants can be referred as urban increment, i.e.,

the difference between regional and urban background

pollutant concentrations

Rural background

Urban background


rurali

avgUE

UEi

iiurbani CuA

EC

where

Ci urban = Urban increment of pollutant i.

EiUE = Total emission of pollutant i within the urban entity in tons.

AUE = Urban entity area in km2.

uavg = Urban entity average wind speed in m/s.

Ci rural = Rural background concentration of pollutant i in µg/m3

ωi, φi, and γi = Multiple-regression parameters for pollutant i.

Urban increment

developed by Torras Ortiz (2010), USTUTT

Torras Ortiz, S. (2010). "A hybrid dispersion modelling approach for quantifying and assessing air quality in Germany with

focus on urban background and kerbside concentrations," submitted Doctoral Thesis, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart.

A model to estimate the urban increment (i.e., the difference between regional and

urban background pollutant concentrations) was included in the analysis within

MEGAPOLI. The modelling approach is based on a multiple regression analysis with

the following components:


Exposure modelling


Exposure modelling- Outdoor


Exposure modelling- indoor

2 ) indoor m-environments

Integrated health impact assessment of transport policies- Jochen Theloke 23

Exposure modelling- personal exposure


Conclusion

• An integrated health impact assessment approach for transport

policies will be developed in the TRANSPHORM project

• A full chain approach will be applied (incl. urban increment and

exposure modelling)

• 33 transport related policy options have been identified and will be

analysed in the TRANSPHORM project according to their efficiency

(costs versus benefits (avoided monetarized human health impacts))

and effectiveness (costs versus avoided DALYs).

• Other effects e.g. change of noise levels, congestion/time losses

and gains and change of number of accidents will be also

considered.


And many thanks for the good cooperation in TRANSPHORM to my

colleagues: Christian Schieberle, Ulrike Kugler, Melinda Uzbasich, Sona

Orlikova, Markus Blesl, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Antoon Vischedijk,

Jeroen Kuenen, Dick van den Hout, Zissis Samaras, Jana Moldonova,

Andreas Petzold, Griet de Ceusters and others from the TRANSPHORM

team

Thank you for your attention

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