Integrated Disaster Risk Management(IDRiM) and Governance: A

Perspective and Methodology ofEnhancing the Quality of Disaster

Prevention

Norio OkadaProfessor, Disaster Prevention Research Institute,Kyoto University, Japan

IRGC Beijing, Sept. 21-22, 2005

ACTIONKNOWLEDGE

Implementation Divide

1 foot mini-action

1 big Mile

RISKLANDSCAPE

?

(10 times speed than actual time)

Imagination+ Simulation=Ima-simulation

Imagination+ Experience =Experi-magination

Critical Ima-simulationCritical Experi-magination

Vital (Lively, Communicative,critical-implicit)

Vital Experi-magination

VS.

What makes CASiFiCA differentand unique?

• Continuous monitoring (from Pre- to Post disaster time)• Cross-referencing (Multilateral Monitoring, from region to

region) and Collaborative monitoring• Adaptive Management for Field-Based Disaster

Research (starting from a small but testable researchpiece)

• Time-bound (three years)• Practice-bound (Policy-makers, Practitioners, End-users-

involved )• Benchmarking for research outcomes

Place

A

B

C

START END

●Disaster A START END

●Disaster B START END

●Disaster C

Typical Conventional Case Study Approach

retroactivenon-continuity

NO CROSS-PLACE REFERENCE

NO CROSS-PLACE REFERENCE

Time

• ignore potential for participative approach to“social co-learning” among potentialstakeholders

• fail to provide for continuous monitoring as partof a proactive, anticipatory approach

• identify learning points, but are not designed toconvert learning to knowledge that leads toaction

• research driven by narrow academic agenda,not broader need for knowledge that will benefitactual communities

Problems in conventionaldisaster risk case studies　(2)

Place

A

B

C

●Disaster A

●Disaster B

●Disaster C

Case Station Approach

Time

CROSS-PLACEREFERENCE

START

START

START

>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Stakeholders

Academics

CommunityPeople

NGO’s

Social Co-learning Process= Multilateral Knowledge Development

Time

Administrators

Academic AgentsStudents (Local)

Students (Global)

Scientists (Global)

Academic Co-learning and Life-cycle Process= Multilateral Human Resource Development

Time

Scientists (Local)

(a)Students as Future Scientists(b)Students as Future Practitioners(c) Students as knowledge-carriers, spirit-holders, capacity-

disseminators

CASiFiCA-MEXTDefinition and Qualification

• Case station and Field campus are a set of eachCASiFiCA Country sub-project.

• The case station is an organ of research function.• The field campus(es) is (are) field work place

where PhD and postdoc-level students work withpractioners, and write a thesis, guided by (a) localsupervisor(s) and international/interdisciplinarysupervisor(s).

• The NEXUS-IDRiM community is a primary sourceof international/interdisciplinary supervisorcandidates.

NEXUS-IDRiM CharterAcademic Initiative Network Community

oriented towards Implementation Science forIntegrated Disaster Risk Management (IDRiM)Whereas, the world is afflicted by continuingdisasters of greater and greater severity, andWhereas, the key to reducing the impacts of

disasters and advancing progress in oursocieties is growth and sharing of

knowledge, andWhereas, the academic community is the

nexus for knowledge, therefore

Field Campus

AdvocatesChange AgentsChange Agents

Institution / Organization Case StationCase Station Case Studies

Best Practices

Advocacy Motivational Tools

Learning and Implementation Process

Prioritize Actions

Case Station/ Field Campus

Integration is needed in• Integration DD: Combining both daily and disaster mode

(disaster and non-disaster cycle),• Integration MD: Dealing with multiple hazards and disasters,• Integration KP: Systematizing and linking a piece of particular,

specialized knowledge and technology to relevant policyconcerns and governance issues,

• Integration DU: Linking disaster management to urbanplanning and management,

• Integration KD: Spanning a gap between what we know andwhat we do= Implementation knowledge,

• Integration MA: Methodological Development by AdaptiveManagement

Integration DD:Combining both daily and disaster mode

(disaster and non-disaster cycle),

Disaster Cycle (Alexander)

Disasterimpact

Preparedness

Relief

Rehabilitation

Reconstruction

Mitigation

Pre-disaster risk reduction phase

RiskManagement

Post-disaster recovery phase

ConsequenceManagement

Emergency

Early warning

Source:

Ye Yaoxiang(2005)

Proactive and Retroactive DisasterManagement

Conventional risk

comm

unication studyU

rban/disasterplanning

Immediateafter Ex post　 Ex anteEx ante

Restorationplanning/ urban

master plan

Disaster(emergency)

planningexecuted

Evacuation order/Early warning

Disaster

disasterexperience

Tradition/education

Increasing preparedness/Non-construal mitigation

time

Disaster(emergency)planning and

drills exercised

Conventional risk

comm

unication studyU

rban/disasterplanning

Immediateafter Ex post　 Ex anteEx ante

Restorationplanning/ urban

master planrevised

Disaster(emergency)

planningexecuted

Evacuation order/Early warning

Disaster

disasterexperience

Tradition/education

Increasing preparedness/Non-construal mitigation

time

Disaster(emergency)

planning and drillsexercised/ urban

master plan

Integration DU: Linking disaster management to urbanplanning and management

Economic losses (billion US$)

75.5138.4

213.9

659.9

0

200

400

600

800

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s

Annual averaged economic losses causedby natural disasters in 1960s-1990s

Source:

Ye Yaoxiang(2005)

100

220

100

750

100

1510

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

No of natural

disasters

Material damage Insured damage

1960s (% ) 1990s (% )

1960s - 1990s on a global level

Source:Ye Yaoxiang (2005)

112

1.255 2.3 10

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Material damage in US$

billions

% of GDP

1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake, Japan 2001 El Salvador Earthquake

Source: GTZ.2002, Yaoxian Ye & Norio Okada. 2003

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Total 2.52 4.07 6.06 8.27

Urban 0.75 1.55 2.87 4.98

Developd Urban 0.45 0.74 0.9 1

Developing Urban 0.3 0.81 1.97 3.98

Rural 1.77 2.52 3.19 3.29

Developd Rural 0.37 0.31 0.29 0.21

Developing Rural 1.4 2.21 2.9 3.08

1950 1975 2000 2030

Worldpopulation(billions)

http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2001/WUP2001_CH1.pdf

2007

!"#$%&%'

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1949

1952

1955

1958

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

40.54%2003

10.6%1949

16.25%1958

17.86%1966

17.92%1978

17.44%1976

29.04%1995

19.75%1960

16.84%1963

Great LeapForward, 3 millionworkers increased

0.63 0.08 0.88-1.44

2.6 millionworkers migratedto rural area

Cultural Revolution, urbanschool-leavers went tocountryside

Implementing reform and open policy

Annual percentage pointUrbanization rate (%)

China’s Urbanization Rate

Source:

Ye Yaoxiang(2005)

Integration KP: Systematizing and linking apiece of particular, specialized knowledge &technology to relevant policy concerns and

governance issues

• This world is now a man-techno-complex systemsociety.

• Governance is indispensable but its knowledgeunexplored yet.

• Participatory approach on different levels ofsocial autonomy is just one way of achieving agovernance scheme.

• Adaptive management is just one of way ofgoverning the man-techno-complex systemsociety.

Action

Plan

Do

Check

Participatory Approach based on a Workshop Method

As a PDCA Cyclic Process

We need multiple legs (polyped) which cling to otherinterface areas.

Integration KP: Systematizing and linking apiece of particular, specialized knowledge &technology to relevant policy concerns and

governance issues

Policy Linkage: Octopus Model(Okada,2002)Multidisciplinary Approach

Reinforcing buildings

(Landuse and Built Environment)

Broad　Road

(Infrastructure)

Disaster Robust Culture(Culture and Convention)

(Life in community)

Building Inspectionand Auditing System

(Social Schemes)

Fostering Community ofMutual Assistance

Nailing Furniture toWall

Integration KD: Spanning a gap betweenwhat we know and what we do=Implementation knowledge

Three types of missing knowledgeand One Already there

• Frontier knowledge: Still much unknown (eg. Location of active faults)• Existing knowledge: Already much known (eg. Lessons learned from past disasters,

predicted typhoon/hurricane approaching real-time. )

• Implementation knowledge: Yet much unknown (eg. how to encourage and let people practice

furniture nailing; still tacit and not formalized )• We do not know enough about the above fact. (eg. Self-isolation and Mindset by specialization)

Hurricane Catherina WellImagined A year ago!

• When did this calamityhappen? It hasn't—yet. Butthe doomsday scenario isnot far-fetched. The FederalEmergency ManagementAgency lists a hurricanestrike on New Orleans asone of the most dire threatsto the nation, up there with alarge earthquake inCalifornia or a terroristattack on New York City.Even the Red Cross no longeropens hurricane shelters in thecity, claiming the risk to itsworkers is too great.

Gone with the Water National Geographic Magazine,

Oct. 2004By Joel K. Bourne, Jr.Photographs

by Robert Caputo and TyroneTurner

The Louisiana bayou,hardest working marshin America, is in bigtrouble—with direconsequences forresidents, the nearbycity of New Orleans, andseafood loverseverywhere.

"The killer for Louisiana is a Category Threestorm at 72 hours before landfall that

becomes a Category Four at 48 hours and aCategory Five at 24 hours—coming from theworst direction," says Joe Suhayda, a retiredcoastal engineer at Louisiana State University

who has spent 30 years studying the coast.Suhayda is sitting in a lakefront restaurant onan actual August afternoon sipping lemonade

and talking about the chinks in the city'shurricane armor. "I don't think people

realize how precarious we are,"Suhayda says, watching sailboats glide by."Our technology is great when it works.

But when it fails, it's going to make thingsmuch worse."

ContinuedGone with the Water National GeographicMagazine, Oct. 2004By Joel K. Bourne,

Jr.Photographs by RobertCaputo and Tyrone

Turner

Such high stakes compelled a host of unlikelybedfellows—scientists, environmental groups,business leaders, and the U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers—to forge a radical plan to protect what'sleft.

Drafted by the Corps a year ago, the LouisianaCoastal Area (LCA) project was initially estimated to

cost up to 14 billion dollars over 30 years, almost twiceas much as current efforts to save the Everglades.

ContinuedGone with the Water National GeographicMagazine, Oct. 2004By Joel K. Bourne,

Jr.Photographs by RobertCaputo and Tyrone

Turner

Why NOT IMPLEMENTED?!!

Managing PovertyStructural Measures

for Disaster Prevention

Mindset and Excusedby High Priority Issues

Increasing RiskAwareness and

Capacity Building

for Evacuation

(Social-Colearning)

ImprovingCommunication and

De-segregation

Nailing Furniture to the Wall(a Japanese Experience)

・Everybody agrees it’s important, but・Very few people practices it. Why so??・Hypotheses to be continuously tested (for example): There are different groups of peoples with different attitudes. We need to identify some appropriate target people. →　“Social Marketing” Methods may be needed. Typology hypothesized:- I am eager to learn and practice it. Then I would like to assist others.-So far it was all right without it, so it will always be all right with me.-It is troublesome and I have more important things to do.-I would like to find some one who can help me but don’t know who

he/she is.-Even if I can find someone like that, I still feel uncomfortable to have

him/her step in my bedroom.

Workshop and participatoryapproach may or may not work

• Adaptive management in a PDCA cycle process• Hypothesized models/policies• Proactive approach• Continuous monitoring• Evaluation of process development• Formalization of implicit knowledge• Social co-learning by specialists,students

and residents, like capacity building forTsunami disaster in inexperienced regions

• Cultural calibration through cross-countrymonitoring

Collaborative Modeling

Model

Claims

Modification

Stakeholder

Missing Knowledge ofSustainability: Vital Integration

• Vitae system (Living body) as both the objectand subject of Sustainable Management

• Three functions as a systemic (organic) whole.• (1)To live through (to survive)• (2) To live vigorously (to vitalize)• (3) To live together with others (to con-vive)• To build resilient capacity should mean dynamic and rhythmic balance of the whole in

tension and relaxation over time.

Vitae system

Survivability

Live through

Vitality

Live lively

Conviviality

Live together

Simultaneouslysatisfied

Vita FunctionalIntegration

Scream

Sink Swim

(and/or)(and/or)

(and/or)

Sustainable

System

(Viability)

Vitae system生

Conviviality

共

Survivability

命

Vitality

活

Vitae system人 (Human)

Conviviality

共

Survivability

命

Vitality

活

天　 Time 地 Space

Vitae system

Conviviality

Live together

Survivability

Live through

Vitality

Live lively

Tension mode 緊張位相 Sympathetic nerve mode交感神経系位相

Functional Integration of Vitae System

Conviviality

Live together

Survivability

Live through

Vitality

Live lively

Relaxation mode 弛緩位相

Vitae system

Para sympathetic nerve mode副交感神経系位相

Tension

relaxation

Tension

relaxation

Tension

relaxation

Vital Rhythms

Festival FestivalMini-disaster Mini-disaster Mini-disaster

Daily life Daily life Daily life Daily life Daily life

Integrated disaster reduction drill ENJOY and CREATIVE!

Emergency toilet set-up training

Disaster map drawing Furniture fixing device set-up training

Fire extinguisher drill

Source:Yamori,2005

REMEMBERTHE PAST

Tsunami parade at Hiro.

Tsunami monument

Storm surge trace

EVACUATION DRILLINVOLVINGTOURISTS

The City of Rikuzen-Takada, Japan

Phuket, on April 29, 2005.

Vitae System Dynamics• S=Survivability, V=Vitality, C=Convivality E=Environment, t=time• S (t) as Stamina= Function of V (t) and C (t).• V (t)=Function of S (t) and C (t).• C (t)=Function of S (t), V (t) and E (t).• S (t), V (t) and C (t) are mutually interactive and

interdependent.• The Dynamism is highly nonlinear and complex.• The System is semi-open-ended.• The 21st century still misses the knowledge of this kind.• This is a part of implementation knowledge (science).

Networked Vitae System

• Every vitae system covers a marginallyextended and thus a more resilient systemis expected.

• Thus each governs the area of one’s ownlocality, and thus to be networked toservice the entire region.

Networking of Vitae systems

Survivability VitalitySurvivability Vitality

Surviv

abilit

y

V

itality

Survivability

Vitality

Conviviality

Thank you.謝々