Presentation by

Ajey Lele

Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (IDSA), New Delhi, India

at McGill University, Montreal, Canada

Nov 11, 2011

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Strategic Implications

of Removal of Space Debris

and On-orbit Servicing of Space Objects

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Presentation Layout

• Backdrop • The Concern

• Strategic Implications • Appraisal

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Known facts… • Space technology plays a central role in socioeconomic ,

scientific and strategic development of a nation-state • Today's satellite is tomorrow's space debris • On average, over the past 40 years, one piece of space junk

has fallen to Earth every day • It costs app $10,000 per kilogram to lunch anything into orbit

• Every object launched in space :potential as derbies

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few more Known facts… • 60% of be orbital-debris population is owned by Russia and

China add United States to this……… • Debris removal technically feasible(LEO), but costly • Ways for clearing the sky: few projected methods look

outlandish • Debris-removal systems could have military uses. Not every

country is providing details about what they have in space • As of now, no specific customary international law governs

various issues related to orbital debris totally

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Garbage in Space • Space debris/orbital debris/ space junk/space waste is a

reality • Threat to space assets (from debris)is a reality, the question is

exact quantification of the risk • Space crafts as well as objects on ground are at risk, on-orbit

servicing of space objects will also add to debris • Cleaning exercise is a must but, one time cleaning is not

sufficient and it has to be a continuous process

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# Space junk at tipping point # Orbital Debris Problem to Triple by 2030

The Forecast idsa

Debris Fall: Past & Present • USSR Kosmos 954 reentered the atmosphere over Canada in 1978 • A Japanese ship hit in 1969 by pieces of space debris (Soviet origin) • Oct 1987, a 7-foot strip of metal from a Soviet rocket landed in California • Portions of Skylab came down over Australia in 1979 • Jan 2007 ASAT test by China • Operation Burnt Frost, executed on 20 February 2008 • Feb 10, 2009, a decommissioned "Cosmos 2251" satellite and an

operational "Iridium 33" satellite collided

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Various types of Debris

• 1 cm or smaller • large debris items

over 10 cm

• Debris in LEO • Debris at higher

altitudes

Dead spacecraft Lost equipment Boosters Debris from and as a weapon

Sources of Debris

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A Different way of Debris Categorization

• Non-functional payloads like satellites without fuel or wandering satellites

• Fragments, small particles, remains of broken satellites, launchers etc.

Proposals for Debris Removal

• Developing large balloon-like objects that would sweep up debris in certain orbits

• Using space shuttle or undertake planned orbital

maneuvering vehicle (OMV) to capture inactive satellites and remove them form orbit

• In LEO-remove inactive payloads-the system needs to reserve

fuel for this when the satellites becomes inactive lower their orbit

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Debris Removal: Novel Solutions • Lasers • Solar Sails • Tethers and Nets • Space Mist • Robots • Adhesives

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Kessler Syndrome • When the density of objects in LEO is high enough that

collisions between objects could cause a cascade – each collision generating debris which increases the likelihood of further collisions

• Early 2009, Kessler argued that: Aggressive space activities

without adequate safeguards could significantly shorten the time between collisions and produce an intolerable hazard to future spacecraft. Large constellations is the problem

• The activities could set up a situation where a single satellite

failure could lead to cascading failures of many satellites in a period of time much shorter than year

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Unpredictable Future

• Is addition of debris through impacts is slower than their rate of decay?

• Would it happen that the risks and costs of operating

in space could make certain missions no longer profitable or safe?

• The growing importance of on-orbit servicing…could

add to the debris

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The Challenge • Activities in space will increase, new players will join in, adding

of debris will be added • On-orbit servicing will take place…add debris • Difficult to predict exact volume of likely debris addition • New technology development is essential for debris

‘management’ • Loosing a space asset is not affordable hence on-orbit servicing

would gain importance

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The Problem

• Dual use nature of debris reduction and spacecraft protection techniques

• On-orbit servicing technology- could lead towards debris

creation, also misuse of technology is possible • Existing legal regime has limitations

All such capabilities are potential ASAT

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Basic Issues

• What is the definition of orbital debris? • Who owns a particular debris? How to fix the responsibility?

What is nature of jurisdiction and control over orbital debris? • How to address debris related issues with the entry of the

non-state actor in the business? • Handling the issues arising due to the dual use nature of

various proposed debris removal techniques

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On Orbit Servicing

• Direct replacement of any nonperforming unit

• Replacement with advanced unit • Repair • Installation of additional hardware • Unplanned requirements

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Remote Intervention is the Key

• Satellite servicing-demand likely to increase • Robotic activities would play a major role • Serving beyond LEO • Geostationary orbit has high commercial and strategic value

assets • Robot based Geostationary Service Vehicles

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Strategic Implications

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Wide-ranging Issues

• Overall ‘strategic’ interests need to be viewed from a technological, military, international cooperation/competition and economic point of view

• Premature to look for direct military applicability while

Removal of Space Debris and On-orbit Servicing of Space Objects missions are still evolving

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Probable Investors • The United States: NASA is working on this problem • Russia: Investing $ 2b in space debris removal, is planning to build a

"pod" that will knock junk out of orbit and back down to earth, pod will have a nuclear power core to keep it running for about 15 years while it orbits the earth knocking defunct satellites out of orbit

• China: Recently the Shenzhou VIII spacecraft joined onto the Tiangong-1

experimental module, demonstrates the potential of the space programme

• ESA

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Recycling of Satellite Parts (space debris becomes space resource)

• A program called Phoenix by the US • Recycle still-functioning pieces of defunct satellites and incorporate them

into new space systems inexpensively • Robot mechanic-like vehicle with grasping mechanical arms and remote

vision systems to harvest still-working antennas from retired and dead satellites

• Launching the antenna-less small satellites would be much cheaper, attach

antennas in space to these satellites

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Security Approach • There is a need for unified security approach however, none of

these states….. • Op Burnt Frost (Feb 20, 2008): The US is selling this idea as a

‘model of transparency’. But, going alone is not the answer • China’s 2007 ASAT makes their intentions……

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Demonstration Tool!!

• “Politics” behind undertaking space launches to actually demonstrate the missile development capabilities is well-known

• Debris removal and on-orbit servicing technologies:

would states use them to demonstrate their ASAT capabilities?

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Space ‘arms’ race… • Would major space powers use debris removal technologies

as one of the instrument to start a space race? Amongst themselves and also forcing emerging players to become cautious

• The implications could be both economic and geopolitical • Would limited “have” group of countries come together and

make a convenient treaty (space-NPT)?

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Weapon Potential • The growth of technology itself presents direct or indirect

benefits for the military • Space to space and space to ground options • Development of jamming technologies • Testing of new technologies could be undertaken openly

(covert demonstration of ASAT)

• Spin-off benefits for other projects in space

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Fringe Benefits... • Help the development of frontier technologies: applicability

includes the armed forces • Development of Space and Radar Networks: could also help in

intelligence gathering mechanisms. C4ISR capabilities could undergo a revolution

• Robotics--Logic is simple: if you can operate a robot in space,

you can operate it in an enemy state or on the battlefield • The strategic materials being developed for such missions

could change the face of platform technology

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Indian’s View

• Re-entry of ROSAT (Oct 2011)- Bay of Bengal region • Oct 12, 2011:PSLV-C18 launch with Megha-Tropiques satellite.

A delay of one minute to preclude the “probability of space debris,” smashing into the satellites

• Intentions of few states are not clear • Collision avoidance mechanism, need for information grid • Lack of global structures to address these issues

Appraisal • Lack of policy both at national and international levels • Putting satellite in a space involves ‘Rocket Science’. Destroying

a satellite……. • States could have reservations about binding or intrusive

Debris Mitigation or Remediation Regulations or Code of Conduct, since this could influence national defence and security imperatives

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• It is important for states to appreciate that validation of ASAT capability on the ground through simulation is possible

• Need to establish collision avoidance mechanism • Need to improve space surveillance capabilities and find

means for immediate dissemination of space situational awareness

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Appraisal contd

Appraisal contd

• Debate “polluter pays” principle, Superfund… • Non-state actors operating in space; need for proactive

engagement • Any legal regime should be supported by creating

organisations (akin to IAEA/OPCW etc) for implementations • States needs to be assisted to strengthen space situational

awareness capability

• Geneva Vs Vienna……

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Thanks

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