institut für physik der atmosphäre institut für physik der atmosphäre climate-chemistry...
TRANSCRIPT
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Climate-Chemistry Interactions -User Requirements
Martin Dameris
DLR-Institut für Physik der AtmosphäreOberpfaffenhofen
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Modelling of climate-chemistry interactions - Why?
Climate change detected (e.g. IPCC, 2001).
Changes in atmospheric composition observed (e.g. WMO, 2003).
Coupling of chemical processes in climate models.
Climate-Chemistry Models (CCMs) have been employed to examine the feedback between dynamical, physical and chemical processes.
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Modelling of climate-chemistry interactions - Why?
The primary goals of CCMs are to
support analyses of (long-term) observations of trace gases and aerosols,
evaluate emission control measures,
determine and quantify underlying dynamical, physical and chemical processes, and their feedback,
explain recent changes (variability),
assess possible future trends.
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Modelling of climate-chemistry interactions - scientific applications or problems
Tropospheric air quality (chemical weather).
The effect of surface pollution (including traffic), aviation and natural factors on chemical, radiative and dynamical (e.g. long-range transport) processes in the upper troposphere and stratosphere.
How do climate change impact atmospheric chemistry (composition) and vice versa?
A key science issue is to determine the timing of ozone recovery and future ultraviolet radiation at the surface.
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Development of CCMs - general progress in recent years
about 15 years ago• first coupling of climate models
(GCMs) to simplified chemistry (e.g. Cariolle et al., 1990).
about 7 years ago• off-line climate-chemistry models (CCMs) with
complex chemistry (e.g. Steil et al., 1998);• first results regarding ozone recovery (e.g.
Dameris et al.,1998; Shindell et al., 1998).
today• interactively coupled CCMs available (e.g. Hein
et al., 2001);• investigations of feedback between dynamical,
physical, and chemical processes (e.g. Schnadt et al., 2002; Austin et al., 2003).
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
The CCM E39/C - Description of model system
Surface, aircraft, lightning
NOx Emissions [Tg N/a]
RadiationLong-waveShort-wave
Chemical Boundary Conditions
Atmosphere: CFCs, at 10 hPa: ClX, NOy,
Surface: CH4, CO
Chemistry (CHEM)Methane oxidation
Heterogeneous Cl reactionsPSC I, II, aerosolsDry/wet deposition
Photolysis
Feedback
O 3, H
2O, C
H 4, N
2O, C
FCs
Prognostic variables (vorticity, divergence, temperature, specific humidity, log-surface pressure, cloud water),
hydrological cycle, diffusion, gravity wave drag, transport of tracers,
soil model, boundary layer;sea surface temperatures.
T30, 39 layers, top layer centred at 10 hPaDynamics (ECHAM)
Hein et al., 2001
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Application of CCMs for process studies
Investigation of
chemical composition and climate variability (change), tropospheric and stratospheric coupling,
especially in order to determine and quantify feedback processes.
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. MSU: temperature anomalies (1979-1990), 13-21 km, global mean
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. NCEP analysis: zonal mean temperature (80°N, 30 hPa)
NCEP E39/C
Type I PSC
Type II PSC
Hein et al., 2001
E19/CType I PSC
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. NCEP analysis: zonal mean wind (60°N, 30 hPa) E39/C NCEP
Hein et al., 2001
E19/C
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. GOME: ozone columns [in DU]
Gome data provided by DLR-DFD, Dr. M. Bittner
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. ground based and TOMS-data: climatological mean values of total ozone and “trends”
Mo
de
lO
bse
rva
tions
1990 1990 - 1980
Hein et al., 2001; Schnadt et al., 2002
La
titu
de
McPeters et al., 1996
-26
-4
-6
-24
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. GOME: NO2 tropospheric columns (July)
E39/C (1990) GOME (1996 - 2000)
Lauer et al., 2001;
GOME-data provided by IUP, A. Richter and J. Burrows
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. GOME: NO2 tropospheric columns, annual cycle over Africa
Lauer et al., 2001;Matthes, 2003
ECHAM4/CHEMECHAM4/CBM (G.-J. Roelofs, Utrecht)GOME
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Comparison - E39/C vs. GOME: NO2 tropospheric columns, annual cycle over Africa and Europe
Lauer et al., 2001;Matthes, 2003
ECHAM4/CHEMECHAM4/CBM (G.-J. Roelofs, Utrecht)GOME
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Application of CCMs for sensitivity studies
E.g., assessments of future
chemical composition, climate change, feedback processes
in the lower stratosphere, in particular with respect to ozone.
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
E39/C - predictions
Southern / Northern Hemisphere spring time
1990
2015
adapted from Schnadt et al., 2002
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
E39/C and others - predictions
Austin, Schnadt, Dameris, et al., 2003
SH: ozone recovery expected
to begin within the range
2001 to 2008
TOMS E39/C
NH: ozone recovery expected
to begin within the range
2004 to 2019
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Evaluation of CCMs - user requirements
Satellite data products are required for validation of CCMs!
Global coverage (hor. resolution: 50*50 km2).
Long-term observation of spatial-temporal variability (inter-annual, seasonal, diurnal) of dynamical, physical and chemical parameters, in particular temperature, wind, cloud cover, H2O, CH4, O3, CO, OH, NOx, HNO3,N2O, aerosol microphysics.
Profiles (vert. resolution: 1 km; troposphere: at least 2-3 independent pieces of height resolved information, with one point in the boundary layer).
Temporally high-resolution sampling (troposphere: 60 min.; stratosphere: 3 hours).
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
Evaluation of CCMs - user requirements
Geostationary platforms are required! (3-5 missions necessary to get global coverage)
Institut für
Physik der Atmosphäre
The End. Thank you!