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Insights and Trends from 25 Years of COCOMO Forums

Dan Ligett

Softstar Systems

Ligett@SoftstarSystems.com

www.SoftstarSystems.com

(603) 672-0987

25th International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling -- 11/3/2010

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OUTLINE

Perspectives

COCOMO 85 talks

Conclusions

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1985 - 3

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“Software Engineering Economics”, Barry Boehm

Oddball text book still in print after 27 years 21 printings still relevant

How come? revelation? because we haven’t gotten much better??

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Perspectivehttp://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/america.png

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1985

“Back to the Future” opened

Time Person of the year: Deng Xiaoping

New Coke (Classic Coke <> Old Coke)

Commodore launches the Amiga

IBM PC AT (1984), 6MHz 80286, 16MB RAM, 20MB disk, MS-DOS 3.0

MS Windows 1.0 (Windows 3.1 1992)

We worried about Japan and 5GLs.

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1985 Call for ParticipationGoals for the meeting include sharing of experiences of usage, learning about present and proposed capabilities, identifying areas for future research and development. Comparison to and integration of COCOMO with other models is also an appropriate topic for discussion. Topics of interest include, but are not limited to, usage experience; novel and unusual applications; extensions to the model; comparison with other models; integration with other models; and data collection and recalibration. In addition, a tools fair we be conducted to demonstrate available implementations.

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Some Numbers

800 attendees. More like 1,000

Probably 500 talks

77 at COCOMO 85 11 from DoD 38 from Aerospace/Defense 9 Tool Vendors 5 Telecom 9 other Commercial 2 Academia 3 Unknown

7 countries

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1985 + 24 = 2010

COCOMO Meetings #1 in 1985 + 24 +24 #25 in 2009?? No meeting in 1992

WIGS = 2

Software Engineering Institute = 6

USC =15

Systems and Software Consortium = 1

MIT = 1

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1985 COCOMO / WICOMO Forum

Barry Boehm * TRW

Wolfhart B. Goethert IITRI

Robert E. Park GE

Marilee Wheaton TRW

Walker Royce * Eclectic Systems

Joe Dean Hanscom Air Force Base

Randall W. Jensen Hughes Aircraft Company

Paul R. Garvey MITRE

George Bozoki * Target Software

Paul Rook * SEPM

Dan Ligett * Wang Institute

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Barry Boehm, TRW

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Barry Boehm

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Dan Ligett, Wang Institute

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1984 WICOMO.exe on XP

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Costar 7.0 Main Screen

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Lydon & Poynton

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Lydon & Poynton

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Stephan Greene, DRC

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Stephan Greene, DRC, 1 of 2

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Stephan Greene, DRC, 2 of 2

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Philip Blackwood, Ford Aerospace

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Philip Blackwood, Ford Aerospace

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Greg Blank, McDonnell Douglas

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Greg Blank, McDonnell Douglas, 1 of 2

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Greg Blank, McDonnell Douglas, 2 of 2

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Bernard Price, Army Electronics R&D

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Bernard Price, Army Electronics R&D

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Paul Rook, GEC Software Electronics R&D

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Paul Rook, GEC Software Electronics R&D, 1 of 2

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Paul Rook, GEC Software Electronics R&D, 2 of 2

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Walker Royce, Eclectic Systems

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Walker Royce, Eclectic Systems

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Gregory Lazarev, GHL

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Gregory Lazarev, GHL

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Bernward Jopen, Telenet GMBH

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Bernward Jopen, Telenet GMBH

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Bernward Jopen, Telenet GMBH, 2

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George Bozoki, Lockheed

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George Bozoki, Lockheed

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Roger Warburton, Jaycor

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Roger Warburton, Jaycor, 1 of 2

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Roger Warburton, Jaycor, 2 of 2

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Ed Szwedo, IITRI / DACS

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Ed Szwedo, IITRI / DACS

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Conclusions – Continuity

In 1985 we were sophisticated; we knew to: Collect data Calibrate & validate Tailor, innovate, extend, adapt Use more than one model Be conservative in setting parameters

Same SW quality; no better

Our brains haven’t changed much Always trying something beyond our grasp Same management problems Same economic trade-offs Attention span?

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Conclusions -- Changes

Much smarter about uncertainty

More emphasis on Systems

Bigger projects components better tools

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Conclusions – More Changes

Less sure about what to count

Just a bit of SE improvement “We tried Software Engineering; it didn’t work”

Trend: Forums less tool-oriented

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BACKUP

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1984 WICOMO

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Other Software Models(http://seisage.com)

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Costar 1.0 Main Screen

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Costar 7.0 Detail Report

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SW Estimation Models

COCOMO 81, REVIC, COCOMO II

Price S

SEER

Jensen Model(s)

Putnum

11/3/2009

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List 1985 talks, 1 of 3

Barry Boehm - COCOMO: Answering the Most Frequent Questions

Dan Ligett - The Development of WICOMO

Tom Lydon, Brian Poynton - WICOMO at Raytheon Current Use and Future Plans

Stephan A. Greene - Front End Analysis of Software Development Projects

Philip D. Blackwood - A Constructive Schedule Model

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List 1985 talks, 2 of 3

Greg D. Blank - COCOMO to Jenson Comparison

Bernard C. Price - Government Tailored COCOMO (GTCOCOMO)

Paul Rook - GECOMO Overview of Facilities, (presentation), GECOMO: An Implementation of Extended COCOMO

Walker E. Royce - PCOC: A Complete, User-Tailored, Interactive Cost Analysis Tool Based on COCOMO

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List 1985 talks, 3 of 3

Gregory Lazarev, Winston G. Gresov - Logic Programming as a Software Engineering Tool, Logic Programming (PROLOG): A Powerful Tool

Bernward Jopen - Experience with the Constructive Cost Model in Data Communications S/W-Projects

George J. Bozoki - A Software Sizing Model

Roger D.H. Warburton - Cost Estimation for Very High Level Languages

Edward J. Szwedo - COCOMO in the Software Support Environment