Innovative Program of Climate Change Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st centuryProjection for the 21st century

(KAKUSHIN Program)(KAKUSHIN Program)

Secretariat of the Research Coordination Committee of the ProgramFrontier Research Center for Global Change

Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

Background of national strategy : 3rd phase (FY2006-FY2010) of

the Science and Technology Basic Plan 3rd phase was launched (in April 2006) by the Cabinet The same 4 fields were prioritized4 fields were prioritized again for promotion

as in the 2nd phase besides basic sciences: - Life science; - Information and Communications;

- EnvironmentEnvironment; and - Nanotechnology: National core technologyNational core technology studies/projects were also identified for overarching or cross-cutting themes.

Areas further prioritized in Environment

Promotional prioritization was formulated by the Council for Science and Technology Policy (CSTP)*:

Climate change research (including climate change mitigation technology), Chemical substance risk and security management research, Water/material cycle and watershed, ecosystem management research, 3R (reduce, reuse and recycle) technology research, Biomass usage and utilization research

------------------------------------------------------- * established within the Cabinet Office in 2001, chaired by the Prime Minister, with members of 6 Ministers concerned and 8 Experts

Climate Change Researchcategorized into:

• P1:P1: Integrated monitoring studies on global warming

• P2:P2: Climate change process studies

• P3:P3: Future projection of global warming and building of

data base from climate change research outcomes

• P4:P4: Studies on global warming impact, risk assessment,

and adaptation measures

• P5:P5: Studies on global scale water cycle variabilities

• P6:P6: Studies on mitigation policies

Reliable climate change projection and impact assessment with better managed global Earth observation

Emerging Backgrounds from the IPCC/ AR4 outcomes “Warming of the climate system is unequivocalunequivocal, ….”

“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likelyvery likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12.” 1212 Consideration of Consideration of remaining uncertaintyremaining uncertainty is based on current methodologies. is based on current methodologies.

“ “Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertaintythe largest source of uncertainty.”

“Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are larger than in the TAR (see Table SPM-2) mainly because the broader range of models now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backsstronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs.”

“It is very likelyvery likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.”　　・・・・・・・・・・・・・　　　　　　　　 Strong concerns about global warming and its Strong concerns about global warming and its impactsimpacts on natural disasters, in particular,on natural disasters, in particular, from policy makersfrom policy makers

Increasing needIncreasing need of further reliable projection of further reliable projection

Better simulation of physical and biogeochemical

processes sufficiently reflecting feedbacks

Advancing climate modeling and projectionAdvancing climate modeling and projection

Addressing uncertainties in climate model projection Quantification and reduction of uncertaintyQuantification and reduction of uncertainty

Impact assessment on natural disasters by extreme events through sufficiently high resolution projection

Application of regional projection to natural Application of regional projection to natural disastersdisasters

Research needs and issues to be addressedResearch needs and issues to be addressed

Program Theme (A) Advancing climate modeling and projectionAdvancing climate modeling and projection

Further reliable climate change projection (or prediction) for the 21st century, with a specific focus on extreme events such as heat waves, severe storms, tropical cyclones, storm surges, etc. in the near future (about 25 years ahead)

Projection to be regionally detail enough for relevantly applicable to impact assessment and adaptation studies.

Projection of global environment change including carbon cycle feedback

Developing more reliable and higher resolution climate models, through the sophisticated incorporation of physical and biogeochemical processes in the atmosphere, ocean and land surface, covering wider ranges from global to local urban scales.

Program Theme (B)

Quantification and reduction of uncertainty

Inter-comparison of climate models in their performance in terms of incorporated processes.

Quantification of uncertainty among models through ensemble methodologies.

Data assimilation to be further improved for validation.

Comprehensive study for the reduction of uncertainty in projection.

Program Theme (C)

Impact assessment on natural disasters

Analysis of the frequency and the strength of projected (or predicted) extreme events (tropical cyclones, heat waves, severe rainfalls, droughts, etc.) in the 21st century with special attention to near future (～ 25 years ahead)

Impact assessment study on natural disasters due to extreme events to contribute to natural disaster reduction policies

A 5-year initiative (FY 2007-2011) by the MEXT (Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology ) launched in April 2007

The Program is to follow-up and develop the “Kyo-sei” Project (FY 2002-2006)

The Earth Simulator (to be updated) be further utilized.

The Program intends to contribute to the possible AR5.

Program planProgram plan

Advancing Climate Modeling

andProjection

Impact assessment on natural disasters

Quantification and Reduction of Uncertainty

Close linkage

Comprehensive Impact Assessment Projects by Ministry

of Environment (MOE)　

Coordination

Program structureProgram structure

Participating groups and their studies

Long-term global environmental projection with an earth system model - Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) et. al

Near-term climate prediction with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM - Center for Climate System Research (CCSR) of the University of Tokyo et. al

Projection of changes in extremes in the future with very-high resolution atmospheric models - Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) et. al