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INNOVATIONINNOVATION

forforHumansHumans’’ Security Security ICIM 2009 Sao Paulo 10 DecemberICIM 2009 Sao Paulo 10 December

David Harries PhD P EngDavid Harries PhD P EngAssociate Executive Director, FORESIGHT CANADAAssociate Executive Director, FORESIGHT CANADA

Chair, CANADIAN Node, The Millennium ProjectChair, CANADIAN Node, The Millennium Project

Assistant Head Coach, Varsity Rugby, Royal Military College of CAssistant Head Coach, Varsity Rugby, Royal Military College of Canadaanada




THANKTHANK YOUsYOUs

ICIM 2009 organizing Committee and hosts for

their invitation and warm hospitality .

Many of you here for expanding my knowledgeand deepening my understanding.

The interpreters for an outstanding job.




CONCLUSIONCONCLUSIONLEADINGSHIP

In the absence of a paradigm shift

from LEADERSHIP* to LEADINGSHIP,

the world will be far less able

to plan and prepare what is necessary

to manage and sustain a human condition

characterized by “harmony, balance and co-existence”.

* LEADERSHIP; leading done by ‘leaders’, those at the top of hierarchies




……because,because,

…in the absence of LEADINGSHIP, the

‘Experience goods’

‘Comparative advantage’

‘Management, and‘Leader-ship’

available for INNOVATION will be far less thanwe need.




LatestLatest OutlineOutline

Premise

Revolutions

The Revolution in Security Affairs

CompetenceConclusion again




PREMISEPREMISE

REVOLUTIONS AREREVOLUTIONS ARE

INNOVATIONSINNOVATIONS




RREVOLUTIONS inEVOLUTIONS in ‘‘AAFFAIRSFFAIRS’’R in Military A - a favourite

R in Technology A - Buzan, van CreveldR in Strategic A - Friedman

R in International A - Annan

R in CMR A - a cost of “freedom

R in Intelligence A - no ‘one’ can know,find,learn, R&D all

&R in Security A - Harries




R inR in SECURITYSECURITY AffairsAffairsb.k.a. RevolutionS in SECURITY Affairs for the

post-Westphalian, post-proactive, pre-‘next’ worldGl.3

200/2400 factor

NGOWMDGr.x

Crisis Convergence

TechnologyHS

Competence




Globalization.3Globalization.3The World is Flat*- G.1 states and muscle

- G.2 MNC and labour

- G.3 individuals and software

In fact, the world is level but

spikey **

* Laurence Friedman, 2005 ** Richard Florida 2008




AndAnd……the world is G.3 + G.2 + G.1,

the most so in the biggest urban spikes.

I estimate that between 1/12 (in the rural

‘flatlands’) and 1/8 (in the urban spikes) of all

who are employed work on a security activity.




200/2400 Factor200/2400 Factor• UN member states – 192? 193?from 51 (of

200 + total)

• Significant nations world-wide ~ 2400

• Governing global Paradigms –

democracy; self-determination• Unfinished business ? ~ 2200 potential

states+ ‘political’ states




NGO areNGO are……..

-“good”, organizations, of personalities, wholive and work to achieve their goals.

- organizations with intelligence, informationand influence.

- organizations needing intelligence,information and influence




NGO are notNGO are not……..or not subject toor not subject to……..

…often, non-government

…the subject or target of internationaltreaties, conventions and laws

… a discipline; no university has a“Department of NGO science/affairs”

…often, what you expect




NGO

and GONGO,

GANGO,

CONGO, and

CANGO




East Timor

1990-91 Blackwater, New Orleans 2006

Xe 2008

PMC&PSC




WMDD estruction

D isruption

D estabilization

A consequence of G.3, and G.1+G.2+G.3




WMD of the 1990sWMD of the 1990s




WMD of the 00sWMD of the 00sFinancial Failure

IEDs, Suicide Bombers, Car Bombs

Flailing states

Drug wars




Emerging WMD?Emerging WMD?

SOCIAL MEDIAHistories in the making

New truths and new falsehoods

Whither ‘responsibility’, privacy, protection?

CHANGEwhich is always changing




CHANGINGCHANGINGBrazil

India

China

Thailand

Canada

Zimbabwe

United Statesand…




A N D C H A N G I N GCLIMATE

FINANCE

POLITICS ENERGY

RESOURCES

TECHNOLOGY




GROUP.xGROUP.x

Group of 2 (perceived and powerful)

Group of 8 (old)

Group of 20 (new)




TECHNOLOGIES are..TECHNOLOGIES are..THE ENGINES

OF

HUMAN SECURITYbecause…

HARD&

SOFT




TECHNOLOGIESTECHNOLOGIEShave the POWER to one or more of

• DRIVE*

• ENABLE

• EMPOWER

• GOVERN*

• DISCRIMINATE

• DIVERT*

• DIVIDE

• PROVOKE*• INSPIRE

* the technology imperative but…..

HARD

&SOFT




HSHSHuman Security

- Freedom from fear that your individual life,mobility and livelihood are or can bethreatened.

HS

NS IS

One

among

all




HUMAN SECURITYHUMAN SECURITYThe security of the individual

– in every sense of the word/term/concept “security” – has risen to or above levels of importance

of the security of the state - of national security,

in large part because the state and the status of human security drive and determine, respectively, what is

possible for international security and what is the real

state of national security .




Which Which ‘‘SECURITYSECURITY’’??Economic

FoodHealth

EnvironmentalPersonal

CommunityPolitical

UNHDR 1994




Human SecurityHuman SecurityDefinitional differences >> Debates over

scope, priorities and usefulness

Urban World2006 >> Where one lives is key

to one’s HS

CSR >> ..for its performance>> “new

economics”

Fences >> again




plus

Innovation

Adaptability

Responsiveness

Sustainability

* always a f(t)

plus

Respect




Competence at Competence at ??Collaboration, Coordination, Cooperation, Convergence

orCo-Operation, Consensus, Control, Command, Clarity

Communication, Complimentarity, Criteria-based

Corporateness, Collegiality, Co-existence, Convention,

Consistency, Connection, Contribution, Creativity,Concordance, Compromise, Coherence, Correctness,

Co-location, Continuity, Consequential, Commonality

Coercion, Channelling, Challenge, Consent,Classicism,




THE SIXTHE SIX KEY KEY CC SS

COMMUNICATION

CO-EXISTENCE

COMPROMISE

COMPETENCECO-OPERATION

CONTINUITY




“…“…ten rulesten rules””“…ten rules” for managing the world.

Kaplan “Supremacy by Stealth” Atlantic Monthly Jul Aug 03

- Resourcefulness

- Staying on the Move

- Knowing languages and regions

- Using military to promote democracy

- Being light and lethal- (Bringing back) Covert operations

- (remembering, learning and using) lessons from the past

- Diplomacy must not compromise the mission- “combination” warfare

- Altruistic real-politik




GILMOUR Commission on 9/11GILMOUR Commission on 9/11www.rand.org/nsrd/terrpanelwww.rand.org/nsrd/terrpanel / / ……

Recommendation (among many ):

“Clear processes for engaging academia, business, and

all levels of government and others in rapidly developing

and implementing research and development andstandards across technology, public policy and other

areas needed to secure the homeland – a process that

focuses efforts on real versus perceived* needs.”

* Often political




KINGSTON , OntarioKINGSTON , Ontario

“ Road not Assumed by MunicipalityUse at Own Risk”




Innovation COMPETENCEInnovation COMPETENCEDEMANDS that:

Anyone who can lead will lead = LEADINGSHIP

Technology be managed as both engine and transmission of leadingship

Leaders those at the top lead by promoting leadingshipby everyone




‘‘PHILOSOPHYPHILOSOPHY’’

INTEROPERABILITY, not integration

LIVING CYCLES, not life cycles

ALLWARDS, not ‘top-down’ &/or ‘bottom-up’

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRY,not Sustainable Industrial Development

LEADINGSHIP AND LEADERSHIP




CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION againagain

LEADINGSHIP

In the absence of a paradigm shift from LEADERSHIP* to LEADINGSHIP,

the world will be far less able

to plan and prepare what is necessaryto manage and sustain a human condition

characterized by “harmony, balance and co-existence”.

* LEADERSHIP; leading done by ‘leaders’, those at the top of hierarchies

innovation for humans' security copy

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