initial analysis of iridium 33-cosmos 2251 collision docume… · · 2010-03-03•socrates report...
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Initial Analysis of Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 Collision
T.S. Kelso
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 2 of 16
Overview
• Background• Collision Geometry• Tracking a Collision• Debris Cloud Evolution• Summary & Conclusions
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 3 of 16
Background
• On 2009 February 10 at 1656 UTC, Iridium 33 went silent
• SOCRATES report from 1502 UTC reported a 584-m close approach at that time with Cosmos 2251
• JSpOC confirmed tracking of debris in both orbits
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 4 of 16
• Fresh TLEs (1.207 & 1.340 DSE)
• TCA 16:55:59.806 UTC
• Min range: 584 m
• Relative velocity 11.647 km/s
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 5 of 16
Collision Geometry
• Views– Just prior to collision– Collision plus 10 minutes with debris– Collision plus 180 minutes with debris
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 9 of 16
Tracking a Collision
• At time of collision, conjunction ranked:– 152 overall– 15 of all Iridium– 2 for Iridium 33
• Number of conjunctions at time of collision:– 11 for Iridium 33– 1,019 for Iridium– 11,428 for all 2,946 objects (against 11,842)
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 10 of 16
Tracking a Collision
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 11 of 16
Tracking a Collision
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 12 of 16
Tracking a Collision
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Debris Cloud Evolution
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 14 of 16
Debris Cloud Evolution
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 15 of 16
Debris Cloud Evolution
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15th Annual Improving Space and Launch Operations Workshop, 2009 Apr 30Pg 16 of 16
Summary & Conclusions
• First known collision between two satellites• Screening is difficult without better data
– Technical issues regarding cost and difficulty are not the problem
• Debris problem in LEO rapidly worsening• We must work together now to mitigate risks