informação cristiano kruel educação nova economia …...62.streaming social video 63.media...
TRANSCRIPT
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CRISTIANOKRUELkruel @ startse.comin/cristianokruel
InformaçãoEducaçãoConexão
NovaEconomia
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FO .BOFearOfBeingOffline
A N S I E D A D E C A U S A D A P E L A S E N S A Ç Ã O D E E S T A R P E R D E N D O A L G U M A N O V I D A D E
FO.MOFearOfMissingOut
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1 .NEWECONOMY2 . ENTREPRENEURIALMANAGEMENT3 .MAGICTECHNOLOGIES4. DISRUPTIVEBUSINESSMODELS5 . LIFELONGEDUCATIONBR INCANDO DE L I GAR O S PONTOS
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AS MUDANÇAS ESTÃO NOS
ACELERANDOPARA UMA NOVA ECONOM IA?NEW ECONOMY
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|ERAS& GERAÇÕES
MODERNHUMANSHUNTING150KANOS|3KGERAÇÕES
AGRIGULTURALAGE10KANOS|200GERAÇÕES
INFORMATIONAGE[1980~2030)|1GERAÇÃO
INDUSTRIALAGE250ANOS|5GERAÇÕES
UMAÚNICAGERAÇÃOVIVENDOMUITASERAS?
Web3.05ª.Sociedade
4ª.RevoluçãoIndustrialGeneration (T)ransitionIntelligent Machines Age
NOVAECONOMIA
StartSeInnovation – Insightsfrom ...FutureToday Institute
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|BUSINESSMINDSET
INDUSTRIALMINDSET
INTERNETMINDSET
AGRICULTURALMINDSET
NEWECONOMYMINDSET
DIGITAL
TRANSFORMATION
CONTINUOUS
TRANSFORMATION
TRANSFORMING
StartSeInnovation – Insightsfrom:AndrewNg;
LEAPFROGGING
NEXT
NEXT
NEXT
NEXT
NEXT
NEXT
NEXT NEXT
NEXT
NEXT
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|HORACERTA& LUGARCERTO
FLORENÇA1300sRenascença
PARIS1600sIluminismo
LONDRES1760sRevoluçãoIndustrial
SANFRANCISCOHOJENovaEconomia?
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LUDISMO:Movimentodetrabalhadoresinglesesdasindústriasdetecelagemquedestruíammáquinascomoformadeprotesto.Inglaterra,1811PrimórdiosdaRevoluçãoIndustrial
CONTRÁRIOSÀSMUDANÇASTECNOLÓGICAS
| LUDISTAS
Fonte:Wikipedia.org
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| CRESCIMENTOEXPONENCIALACURVADISSUMULADA
f(x)=2n
f(x)=50xLINEAR
EXPONENCIAL
EvidenteRazoáveleAceitávelConfortável
SurpreendenteIntriganteeDissimuladaDesconfortável
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Estimativas deFontes Diversas:ShiftThinking,SU,Reddit
Número denovosmotoristas parceirosJul-12..Jan-15
Número deuploadsdefotosJul-10..Jul-15
Número dehóspedes noverão2010..2015
Número depagamentos mobileDez-06..Dez-12
Novos usuáriosregistrados2013..2018
INSERIRAQUIOPRÓXIMO
| CURVASEXPONENCIAIS
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OPODERESTÁ DECADENTE?ENTREPRENEUR IA L MANAGEMENT
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GuerrasAssimétricasInsurgentesvs.Incumbentes
Universidade deHarvardsobre guerras entreforças assimétricas:
1800~1849
Início doConflito
%devezes queolado mais fracoalcançou seus objetivos estratégicos
Lado Fraco Atingiu Seus Objetivos
12%
1950~1998 55%
Oneimportantfactorbehindthisshiftistheincreasingabilityoftheweakerpartytoinflictcasualtiesonitsopponentatlowercosttoitself.
"TheEndofPower”byMoisés Naím
“
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| INCUMBENTES& INSURGENTES
Fonte:CBInsights
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| STARTUPS...
UmaNovaUnidade AtômicadeTrabalho…
UmaDiferente Maneira deArquitetar TimesePerseguirPropósitos…
UmNovoMindseteTécnicas paraCriar eDesenvolver NegóciosInovadores…
Source:StartSeInnovation
QUE E S TÁ N O S A C E L E R ANDO PA R A UMA
NOVAECONOMIA?
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DataSource:CBInsightsUniconrList (Mar2018)Image:Silicon ValleyShow,HBO
UNICÓRNIOSU$1BValuation
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|MINDSET& TOOLSET
Source:StartSe Innovation - startse.com – InspiredbyFrenchVCThreeIngredients– OriginalsbyAdamGrant
GENERALMANAGEMENT
ENTREPRENEURIALMANAGEMENT
CONFORMIDADEQu a l i d a d eMe l h o r i a sV i s ã oM i s s ã oP r o c e s s o sC o n t r o l e sH i e r a r q u i a sB u s i n e s s P l a nL e a n S i x S i gm aPD C AVo z d o C l i e n t eF u n c i o n a l i d a d e sP l a n o d e Ve n d a s. . .PA S S A R
OR IG INAL IDADEI n o v a ç ã o
Tr a n s f o rm a ç õ e sP r o p ó s i t oMa n i f e s t o
E x p e r i m e n t o sA u t o n om i a
R e d e sB u s i n e s s Mo d e l
L e a n S t a r t u pA g i l e
Emp a t i aE x p e r i ê n c i a s
G r ow t h H a c k i n g. . .
D R I B L A R
KNOWHOW
REBELDIACAPITAL
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|YIN& YANG
StartSe Innovation – startse.com
GENERALMANAGEMENT
ENTREPRENEURIALMANAGEMENT
YIN
YANG
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ASTECNOLOGIASSÃOMÁGICAS?MAG IC T ECHNOLOG I E S
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ArthurC.Clarke(1907- 2008)Cientista,EscritoreInventorBritânico
3LEISARTHURCLARKEQuandoumrenomadomasveteranocientistaafirmaquealgoépossível,elequasesempreestácerto.Masquandoeleafirmaquealgoéimpossível,eleprovavelmenteestáerrado.
1
23
Aúnicamaneiradedescobriroslimitesdo possível,éseaventurarumpoucoparadentrodo impossível.
Qualquertecnologiasuficientementeavançadaéindistinguíveldemágica.
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| ATLASby BOSTONDYNAMICS
https://youtu.be/vjSohj-Iclc
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StartSeInnovation – GooglePatents - MentalFloss
| BABYCAGE(1922)
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|OBRINQUEDOMAISPERIGOSO
StartSeInnovation – Source:Wikipedia;AllThatInteresting.com
GilbertU-238Atomic EnergyLab (1950)• U$50.00(equivalenteaU$500nosdiasdehoje)• GeigerCounter (MedidordeRadiação)• QuatrorecipientescontendoamostrasdeUrânio:
autunite, torbernite, uraninite,and carnotite.
ParaserjustocomoaGilbert,éprecisodizerqueobrinquedonãoeratãoperigosocomoparece.Obviamentenenhumtipodematerialradioativoéumacoisaboa,masoincluido nokiterarazoavelmenteseguroparamanuseio.(ATIJan-2018)
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|#AIARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
MACHINELEARNING
InteligênciaArtificialéaNovaEletricidade
StartSe Innovation – startse.com
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|#AIARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
DEEPLEARNING
ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE
MACHINELEARNING
f ( x ) = yOLDWAYprogramador
code =f ()...inputxreturn y
NEWWAYmachine learning
train x,yreturn f ()...inputother xreturn y
redesneurais=muitoslayers =deep learningblack box=interpretability
MACHINELEARNING DEEPLEARNING
DADOSSÃOONOVOPETRÓLEODADOSSÃOONOVOCÓDIGOFONTEDEEPLEARNINGÉUMA”CAIXAPRETA”
StartSe Innovation – startse.com
70/80ANOS20/30ANOS
5/10ANOS
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REINFORCEMENTLEARNINGGIFT+1TRUCK-1
https://youtu.be/fiQsmdwEGT8
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SkinCancer
...
Fonte:
TYPICALDEEPLEARNINGUSECASES
ANAMOLYDETECTIONCyber-security – Fraud Detection
RECOMMENDATIONSYSTEMSMarketingPersonalization - Search
COMPUTERVISIONMachine Perception – Object Recognition
SPEECHRECOGNITIONNaturalLanguage Processing – Translation
SELFDRIVINGVEHICLESTransportation – Drone Navigation
HEALTHCAREDIAGNOSISMedicalImaging Interpretation
FINANCIALANALYSISSecurities Trading– Economic Forecasting
DiagnósticosdeCâncerdePeleUSAAnualmente:87Knovoscasosdemelanoma9.7KmortesDeep Convolutional NeuralNetwork(CNN)129,450imagensclínicas2.032doençasdiferentesFonte:Nature Feb 2017- Dermatologist-level classification of skin cancerwith deep neuralnetworks.
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LIPSSYNCFROMAUDIOUniversityofWashington
Fonte:Youtube:Supasorn Suwajanakorn
https://youtu.be/9Yq67CjDqvw
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NVIDIAImageInpainting
https://youtu.be/gg0F5JjKmhA
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NVIDIATheGPURevolution
https://youtu.be/0rc4RqYLtEU
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ARIZONAWaymo AccidentMay’18
https://youtu.be/vxqBS2-4puw
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|AIFAIRNESSInteligênciaArtificialJusta
Fonte:MITMoralMachine - http://moralmachine.mit.edu
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BINGOBOXUnmannedStore200stores(~5K2018)10incidents/1Mtransaction
https://youtu.be/hYN3gozk4fo
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|CHINA
• InteligênciaArtificial• Livro9Capítulos
• 40Escolas
• DianavidadoJovemMingMing
• AssistenteVirtual(Alexa)
• Robot CafédaManhã(Moley)
• CarroAutônomo(Byton)
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| AGI:ARTIFICIALGENERALINTELLIGENCE
DEEPLEARNING
ARTIFICIALNARROWINTELLIGENCE
MACHINELEARNING
ARTIFICIALGENERAL
INTELLIGENCE- multi task intelligence -
TheTuringTest (Turing)Amachine and ahuman bothconversesight unseen with asecond human,who mustevaluate which ofthe two is the machine,which passesthe test if itcan fool the evaluator asignificant fraction of the time.
TheCoffee Test (Wozniak)Amachine is required to enter anaverage Americanhomeand figureouthow to make coffee:find the coffeemachine,find the coffee,add water,find amug,and brew the coffee bypushing the proper buttons.
TheRobot College Student Test (Goertzel)Amachine enrolls inauniversity,taking and passing the same classesthathumans would,and obtaining adegree.
TheEmployment Test (Nilsson)Amachine works aneconomically important job,performing at least aswell ashumans inthesame job.
TheFlatPackFurniture Test (TonySeveryns)Amachine is required to unpack and assemblean itemof flat-packedfurniture.Ithas to read the instructions and assemblethe itemasdescribed,correctly installing all fixture
StartSe Innovation – startse.com
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| SUPERINTELLIGENCE
DEEPLEARNING
MACHINELEARNING
ARTIFICIALGENERAL
INTELLIGENCE- multi task intelligence -
SUPERINTELLIGENCE- our last invention?-
StartSe Innovation – startse.com
ARTIFICIALNARROWINTELLIGENCE
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UMAREVOLUÇÃOTECNOLÓGICANOUNIVERSOJURÍDICO?LAWYERS , L AW F I RMS & L EGA L I NDUSTRY
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| CUSTOMS&IMMIGRATIONFORMApollo11(1969)
Apollo11ComesHome24jul 196911:49AMCDTNeil ArmstrongMichaelCollinsBuzz Aldrin
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LAWYERS,LAWFIRMS&LEGALINDUSTRYPAYATTENTIONTOTHISTRENDS IN2018
1. ArtificialIntelligence2. Faceprints3. Voiceprints4. WiFi Tracking5. GestureRecognition6. PersonalityandCharacterRecognition7. AmbientProximity8. HiddenBiasinRecognitionTechnologies9. ComplianceChallengesandUnrealisticBudgets10. DDoSAttacksWillIncrease11. RansomwareAsAService12. Russia’sGiftedHackerCommunityGrows13. NewInfrastructureTargets14. HacktivismOnTheRise15. Third-PartyVerifiedIdentities16. TargetedAttacksonDigitalAssistants17. Zero-KnowledgeProofsGoCommercial18. Zero-DayExploitsOnTheRise19. Backdoors20. RemoteKillSwitches21. AI-PoweredAutomatedHacking22. OffensiveGovernmentHacking23. MoreCyberMissionForcesintheField24. StrangeComputerGlitchesWillKeepHappening25. ProliferationofDarknets,AidedByCryptocurrencies26. NewOpenSourceAppVulnerabilities27. SelfieSecurityUsingFaceprints28. BountyPrograms29. TheGeneralDataProtectionRegulationTakesEffect30. RightToEavesdrop/BeEavesdroppedOn
31. DefiningWhatConstitutesOnlineHarassment32. DroneSurveillance33. PersonalandOne-To-FewNetworks34. Leaking35. BlockingtheAdBlockers36. OrganizationalDoxing37. Anonymity38. Authenticity39. DifferentialPrivacy40. Anti-RecognitionCammo andGlasses41. DigitalSelf-Incrimination42. SWATting atTrolls43. RevengePorn44. EyeInTheSky45. LawEnfor/mnt UsingRecognitionAlgo ToIDFaces46. DataRetentionPolicies47. EncryptionManagement48. WhoOwnsYourPersonal,BiometricData?49. GlobalDataScientistShortages50. RobotAbuse51. PersonalHomeDroneSurveillance52. CarsasInterfaces53. AutonomousVehicleLegislation54. I-TeamsForAlgorithmsandData55. Crowdlearning56. DigitalFrailty57. Real-TimeFactChecking58. OfflineIsTheNewOnline59. AudioSearchEngines60. SyntheticDataSets
61. DecentralizingTheWeb62. StreamingSocialVideo63. MediaConsolidation64. SocialTweaksToSocialNetworkAlgorithms65. TheFirstAmendmentinaDigitalAge66. AIFortheCreativeProcess67. FOBO68. Anthropocene69. ExtremeWeatherEvents70. HumanMigrationPatternsShift71. GenomeEditing72. GenomeEditingResearchClashesWithPublicOpinion73. Patient-GeneratedHealthData74. Wearables75. PrivacyLaws76. NetNeutrality77. InternetofThings78. SearchingTheInternetofPhysicalThings79. OurSmarthomes BecomeWeaponized80. UniversalBasicIncome81. AIinHiring82. ProductivityBots83. AdaptiveLearning84. Nanodegrees85. SharingEconomy&Lendership86. E-ResidentandLocation-IndependentDigitalBusinessIdentityCards87. SocialPayments88. Cryptocurrencies89. Blockchain90. OpenBanking
91. FasterConnectivityWith5G92. City-LevelCyberSecurity93. Splinternets94. ElectionSecurity95. Anti-TrustLawsuits96. OldLawsClashWithNewTechnology97. DigitalCaliphate98. GovernmentsAskingTechCompanies99. ToHelpFighttheSpreadof100.Misinformation,Propagandaand101.Terrorism102.OverhaulingGovernmentTech103.Infrastructure104.QuantumComputers105.“Unhackable”Computers106.Alt-Cryptocurrencies
Source:FutureTodayInstitute2018
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| LIBERDADECOMFIANÇA
• EstudodeCaso• USA– NewYorkCity(2008-2013)• 750milcasos(dadostreinamento)• AlgoritmoAI
• Oalgoritmoteveumótimodesempenho.• 1%consideradosALTORISCO,edestes• 62%iriamcometeralgumcrime• Juízeshumanoslibertaram50%destes• 63%cometeramalgumcrime• +50%nãoretornaramnadataagendada• 5%cometeramestuprosouassassinatos
• Humanossãobonspara...
• Algoritmossãobonspara...
Source:”Human Decisions and Machine Predictions”– National Bureauof Economic Research,2017– Papaer 232180(+)csmonitor.com – Jan2018;ClevelandOH
Source:csmonitor.com – Jan2018
”States such asNewJersey,Arizona,Kentucky,and Alaskahave adopted these tools.Defendants whoreceive low scoresarerecommended forreleaseunder court supervision.Among other things,suchalgorithms aim to reduce biased rulings that could be influenced by adefendant's race,gender,orclothing...”
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OsonhodosEstonianoséteromenorestadopossível,eotantoquantoonecessário.Graçasae-solutions,ascomunicaçõescomoestadosãorápidaseconvenientesparatodos,eonossopaístorna-semaiseficaz.
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|LEGALTECHNOLOGYLegalInformatics
STARTUPS
• ANALYTICS/AI-ML
• CONFORMIDADE/COMPLIANCE
• COMPUTATIONALLAW
• EDUCAÇÃO
• E-DISCOVERY
• LEGALDOCUMENTMANAGEMENT
• LEGALINFRASTRUCTURE
• MARKETPLACE
• PESQUISAJURÍDICA
• PRACTICEMANAGEMENT
• RESOLUÇÃODECONFLITOSONLINE
• ...
ECOSSISTEMA
• ...
Source:StanfordCodeX – AB2L– StartSe.com
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QUALASUAFORMAÇÃO?L I F E LONG EDUCAT ION
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|PROFISSÕES
...antecipamosumatransformaçãoincrementalnamaneiracomoproduzimosedistribuímosoexpertisenasociedade.
Istopoderálevaraumdesmantelamentodasprofissõestradicionais.
”Richard&DanielSusskindTheFutureof the Professions
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|PROFISSÕES
ERAINDUSTRIAL=InformaçãoImpressaPROFISSÕESTIVERAMUMPAPELCENTRALNOCOMPARTILHAMENTODOCONHECIMENTO(HORA/HOMEM).
ERADAINTERNET= InformaçãoDigitalCONHECIMENTOPODESERDISTRIBUÍDODEDIVERSASFORMASENÃOAPENASPELAPRESENÇADOPROFISSIONAL.
...=MáquinasInteligentes(!x ?)DIVERSASATIVIDADESREALIZADASHOJEPORPROFISSIONAISESPECIALIZADOSPODEMRAPIDAMENTESETORNAROBSOLETAS(!x ?)
OLD
NOW
NEXT
StartSe Innovation - StartSe.com – Insights:fontesdiversas.
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| TRABALHOSMAISHUMANOS
MUITASPESSOAS
FABRICANDOECONTROLANDO
MUITASPESSOASCRIANDOEINOVANDO
POUCASPESSOASCRIANDOE
INOVANDO
POUCASPESSOASFABRICANDOE
CONTROLANDO
VELHAECONOMIATRABALHOPARAMÁQUINAS
NOVAECONOMIATRABALHOPARAHUMANOS
Source:StartSeInnovation
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| TECNOLOGIAPARAOSHUMANOS
VELHAECONOMIAHUMANDISPLACEMENT
NOVAECONOMIAHUMANAUGMENTATION
AUTOMAÇÃOSUBSTITUIOSHUMANOS
AUTOMAÇÃOCAPACITAOSHUMANOS
Source:StartSeInnovation
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| NOVAECONOMIA:PERSONAS&SKILLS
Source:StartSeInnovation
1 . CULTURALDIVERSITY= A G I L I D A D E C U L T U R A L
2 . ENTREPRENEURIALMANAGEMENT= S T A R T U P É G E S T Ã O D E I N O V A Ç Ã O
3 . DISRUPTIVEBUSINESSMODELS= R E F U N D A R O R G A N I Z A Ç õ E S
4 . MAGICTECHNOLOGIES= V E R S A D O S E M D A D O S & T E C N O L O G I A
5 . LIFELONGEDUCATION= A P R E N D I Z A G E M C O N T Í N U A
EMPREENDEDORSTARTUPFOUNDER
INVESTIDORVENTURECAPITAL
EXECUTIVOCORPORATEINNOVATOR
PROFISSIONALNOVASHABILIDADES
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H.L.A.HART
HANSKELSEN
H.L.A.Hart(1907~1992)TheConceptofLawATextura doDireito”Certamente,seaprendemosalguma coisa comahistória damoral,é queacoisa afazer comumdilema moralé não escondê-lo.
HansKelsen(1881~1973)
Teoria PuradoDireito”LegalScience”- BasicNorm”lawasahierarchyofnormswhicharealsobindingnorms
whileatthesametimerefusing,itself,toevaluatethosenorms”
DEEPLEARNINGBLACKBOX
INTERPRETABILITY
ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCEFAIRNESS
Inspiração:LeonardoCunha– OAB/RS71.522 – Founder:Tomaz,oAdvogado Virtual
| IMAGINESE
R.PASAGGERI
Rolandino de'Passaggeri(1215~1300)Bologna”protagonista docenárioacadêmico-notarial”
BLOCKCHAINTANGLE&HASHGRAPH
F.K.VONSAVIGNY
Frederich CarlvonSavigny(1779~1861)
SistemadoDireito RomanoAtual (1879)"contrato é oacordo demuitas pessoas
sobre uma manifestação comum devontade destinada areger suas relações
jurídicas”
SMARTCONTRACTSTOKENS
R.VONJHERING
RudolfvonJhering(1818~1892)SistemadoDireito RomanoAtual (1879)”propriedade eposse”
SHARINGECONOMYOPENSOURCE
DAOs
KARLMARX
KarlMarx(1818~1883)
”Proletários detodos ospaíses,uni-vos!”
”Aditadura doproletariadoconstitui-sena transição
paraatingir uma sociedadesem classes.”
SOCIALNETWORKSROBOTICAUTOMATION
GIGECONOMYUniversalBasicIncome