industry and the 2030 energy and climate package

Industry and the 2030 energy and climate package

Will there be a competitive low carbon

industry in Europe in 2030 ?

26/04/2013, Ecofys seminar, introduction to the

debate

Maarten Neelis

© ECOFYS | | 22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

> Share of renewable energy in

2010 at 10.6%, country plans add

up to 20% in 2020

> More challenging to reach the

20% energy efficiency target

> GHG reduction target likely to be

overshot by 2020 (resulting in low

CO2 prices at the moment)

EU on track with two of the 20/20/20 targets

2


EU27 to overshoot its 2020 GHG target

3

© ECOFYS | |

Meeting 20% savings target will be challenging

22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis4

© ECOFYS | |

National plans for 2020 do add up to 20% RE

22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

2010

11.6%

2020

20.7%

(ECN/EEA, 2011)

42% electricity (o.w.41% wind)

46% heating, cooling (o.w. 78% biomass)

12% transport

5

© ECOFYS | |

Framework for 2030 and thereafter

22/05/2013

The Commission is currently setting up the 2030 energy

and climate policy framework:

2011

2015 2050

March 2011:

Publication of the EU Low

Carbon Roadmap for 2050

with 2030 and 2050 GHG

reduction targets

March 2013:

Publication of the Green Paper

for the 2030 framework;

start of public consultation

End of 2013: Possible

publication of draft

legislation on the

2030 framework

2015: Deadline international

climate change deal; the

Commission would want to have

some detail on 2030 framework

to strengthen negotiation

position

2014: Change of European

Commission, details on 2030

framework will most likely be

passed onto the new

Commission

2013 2020 2030

2020: End of 2020

package, 2030

package must be

ready before then

2030: GHG

reduction target

40% vs. 1990

levels ??

2050: GHG

reduction target

80–95% vs. 1990

levels ??

Maarten Neelis6

© ECOFYS | | 7

Policy Framework for 2030 and thereafter

Raw Materials Manufacturing Distribution Markets

Energy Efficiency Directive

Emissions Trading

Industrial Emissions Directive

EcoDesign & Energy Labeling


Emissions Trading



Emissions Trading


Fuel Quality Directive

White paper DG MOVE

Renewable Energy

Directive

Renewable Energy

Directive

Horizon 2020

Horizon 2020

Horizon 2020

Horizon 2020

22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

© ECOFYS | |

EU ETS needs structural reform

EC Communication 14 Nov 2012

The state of the European carbon market in 2012

Options for reform:

a)Increasing the EU reduction target to 30% in 2020

b)Retiring a number of allowances in phase 3

c)Early revision of the annual linear reduction factor

d)Extension of the scope of the EU ETS to other sectors

e)Limit access to international credits

f)Discretionary price management mechanisms

Long term outlook on ambitious GHG target (i.e. beyond 2020) remains key



The 2030 package: questions from the Green Paper

General – which lessons from 2020 are most important

Targets:

Which targets and at which level (Europe,

Member States, sectors)

Instruments:

Which policy instruments to ensure effective policy package

Competitiveness and security of

supply

Which elements of the package should be strengthened to

promote job creation, growth an

competitiveness

Capacity and distributional

aspects

How should the new framework ensure

equitable distribution of effort

among Member States

9

© ECOFYS | |

Three key questions

>How can competitiveness of EU industry be

ensured under continued decarbonisation?

>How can renewable energy and energy efficiency

be promoted with or without dedicated targets?

>How can the industrial breakthroughs that are

needed to ensure deep reductions by 2050 be

advanced?


© ECOFYS | |

Competitiveness – leakage already happening?


The net change in territorial emissions (1990-2008) together with the change in the net emission transfer between each country and non-Annex B countries (1990-2008). Source: Peters et al., growth in emission transfers via international trade from 1990 -2008, PNAS, published ahead of print 25 April, 2011


Competitiveness – does policy really matter?

12


Multiple targets – the clear need


Reasons for specific targets:

>Renewables / efficiency are the backbone of

decarbonisation

>National targets policies trigger local action

>High renewable energy shares and energy efficiency

have economic and other benefits

>Cost reduction and learning

>Trigger innovation for less-mature technologies

© ECOFYS | | © ECOFYS | | 22/05/2013 Maarten Neelis

Innovation and investment needed, but how …

15

Source: Unfold the future. The forest fibre industry 2050 roadmap to a low-carbon bio-economy, CEPI, 2011

Illustrative model for CO2 emissions reduction between 1990 and 2050: A excluding and B including electrification. Source: Paving the way to 2050, the ceramic industry roadmap, Cerame-Unie, 2012

Source: European chemistry for growth, CEFIC, 2013, supported by Ecofys


Three key questions

>How can competitiveness of EU industry be

ensured under continued decarbonisation?

>How can renewable energy and energy efficiency

be promoted with or without dedicated targets?

>How can the industrial breakthroughs that are

needed to ensure deep reductions by 2050 be

advanced?



Thank you for your attention

Ecofys Netherlands B.V.

Kanaalweg 15G

3526 KL Utrecht

The Netherlands

T: +31 (0)30 662-3241

E: [email protected]

I: www.ecofys.com

17

industry and the 2030 energy and climate package

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